Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Friday, December 19, 2008

OzRant: 90-point Rally After Nuffie Cliff-Dive...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I'm a man of few vices - coffee, sugar, salt, chip buttees, sausage sangers... the usual artery-hardeners and lifespan-shorteners. But my real weakness is for stuff that makes me laugh. I loath 'smirk humour' - The Far Side, Garfield and stuff like that - near as I can tell it's for people who want everyone else to think they're urbane. I reckon there's maybe one Garfield cartoon in 45 that is worth more than a near-smirk. Oh ha friggin' ha - the fat cat doesn't like Monday and eats lasagne. Jeebus.

Give me Ren & Stimpy any day - there are bits of Ren's dialogue that make me laugh just thinking about them... like when Ren was going insane from insomnia - he hit upon an idea as follows:

"I know... maybe I'm too smart to sleep. Yeeess... that's it... Stimpy's asleep, and he's an idiot!"

That quotation doesn't stand up when it's in text - you have to have it in context... spoken by a psychotic Asthma-Hound Chihuahua.

One site that gives me a laugh - that I never miss (no, this is NOT an ad) is I Can Has Cheezburger?, which never fails to life my mood. And the hat tip for that goes to another daily favourite - WTF Is It Now?

The first clue to WTF? is that the writer is a cat lover: I have said before that the Ancient Gyppos were on to something when they interpreted feline insouciance as a sign of divinity.

Anyhow - today Maru outdid himself (herself?): You can her Bush's reedy faux-homespun voice right through this...

Bush to brief Obama on disaster scenarios

"Well, see, here's what you do when the pillow-fort collapses, ya gotta get the ones from th' other sofa. See this? When yer crayons lose their points you kin jes sharpen 'em by rubbing them on this corner of the desk. Heh, you wanna smell something cool? Smell this. Pretty awesome, huh? Jes' don't eat the red ones, they taste funny. Oh, an' when you run outta M&Ms, that guy Wendell in th' kitchen -- ah call him 'Wendy,' heh heh -- he'll bring you up some more. Th' green ones are the best. You might like th' brown ones, though. Heh heh heh."

Maru is also the person behind a lot of the funniest nicknames for George "Brokeback Cowboy" Bush: Chimpy McSimpleton, Snorty McAwol, and others.


But let's get back to the markets...

If you look at the index behaviour, you might think that the Strayan market seems to want to dance to its own tune (or march to its own drummer, or paddle its own canoe): After the nuffie cliff-dive in the first ten minutes, the Oz market had a rally today that lasted the entire session; this despite the fact that the Dow futures are currently 60 points off their closing level.

But you would be misleading yourself if you thought that the Strayan market was (sensibly) ignoring the flagrant manipulation in the US commodities markets that has been taking place due to quadruple witching tomorrow: Gold down $30 from yesterday's session high; Oil down almost 10% (but with a $5 contango between the January and February contract - insane); currencies whipping around like blazes.

But the Strayan market didn't ignore it: look at the GICS sector indices, and you ca nsee that the supposedly 'forward looking' market treated Resources and Energy stocks as if the fall in Crude and metals prices last night was permanent. 

They also bought retailers... that is, they behaved as if the Rudd Government's handouts to consumers will be spent (rather than used to pay down debt) and will have a meaningful effect on retail sales (and, more importantly for investors, on retailers' profits).

Idiots.


One good piece of news for the Strayan market was that QANTAS finally decided to walk away from the stupid British Airways deal, which involved tying QAN to a loss-making capital-destroyer with a toxic hole where its pension plan should be. 

That deal was always just a stupid ego-wank on behalf of Geoff Dixon: a typical piece of CEO deal-fever by a bloke thrashing around trying to find something - anything - to drive his options back into the money. It made no business sense whatsoever, and QAN shareholders are very lucky that he didn't manage to cajole the deal through before he stepped down.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced modestly, rising 25.5 points (0.72%), finishing at 3547.2 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3553.2 at 3:27 pm, while the low for the day was 3459.7 - set at 10:09 am Sydney time. The nuffies had barely dived off the cliff, and the market turned up and left them empty handed.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.96bn units, 69.7% above its 10-day average of 1.16bn shares - that's big volume for a Friday. 

The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1010 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 366 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 670.6m units; there were 434 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 1.15bn shares.

Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 191 rose while 223 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.7:1, with 616.61m shares traded in gainers while 1.03bn shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 34.5 points (0.96%), closing out the session at 3615.7 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3547.20 25.50 (0.7%)
ASX 20 2173.20 30.30 (1.4%)
ASX 50 3667.60 41.60 (1.1%)
ASX 100 2988.80 34.40 (1.2%)
ASX 200 3615.70 34.50 (1.0%)
ASX 300 3597.20 34.10 (1.0%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3267.70 42.50 (1.3%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1612.70 -25.00 (1.5%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 30.3 points (1.41%), closing out the session at 2173.2 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 14 index components finished to the upside, and 7 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 282.61m units; 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 202.55m shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 80.05m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$3.14 (10.34%) to $33.50 on volume of 7.3 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.67 (9.07%) to $8.06 on volume of 6.3 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$1.37 (8.59%) to $17.31 on volume of 30.2 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.30 (8.45%) to $3.85 on volume of 15.6 million shares; and
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.83 (5.01%) to $17.39 on volume of 3.4 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$1.36 (4.02%) to $32.45 on volume of 11.9 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$1.08 (3.48%) to $29.92 on volume of 31.2 million shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.44 (3.31%) to $12.86 on volume of 12.2 million shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.53 (3.23%) to $15.87 on volume of 3 million shares; and
  • RIO Tinto (RIO), -$0.99 (2.48%) to $39.01 on volume of 5.7 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) lost ground even as the Top20 posted a gain. The Small Ords registered a loss of 25 points (1.53%), closing out the session at 1612.7 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 69 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 122 closed lower for the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 424.92m units: volume in the 69 gainers totalling 78.9m shares, with trade totalling 317.53m units in the index's 122 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Gindalbie Metals Ltd (GBG), +$0.12 (21.9%) to $0.64 on volume of 13.8 million shares;
  • Mineral Resources (MIN), +$0.31 (17.99%) to $2.00 on volume of 411.6 thousand shares;
  • Record Realty (RRT), +$0.00 (16.67%) to $0.01 on volume of 200 thousand shares;
  • Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI), +$0.13 (11.9%) to $1.18 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
  • Specialty Fashion Group (SFH), +$0.03 (11.63%) to $0.24 on volume of 201.5 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.02 (32.43%) to $0.05 on volume of 35.1 million shares;
  • Paperlinx (PPX), -$0.34 (32.08%) to $0.72 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
  • FKP Property Group (FKP), -$0.15 (27.27%) to $0.40 on volume of 4.8 million shares;
  • Rubicon Japan Trust (RJT), -$0 (25%) to $0.01 on volume of 210 thousand shares; and
  • APN European Retail Property Group (AEZ), -$0.02 (24.29%) to $0.05 on volume of 892.2 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3547.2 25.5 0.72 1735m
XFL ASX 50 3667.6 41.6 1.15 923.9m
XJO ASX 200 3615.7 34.5 0.96 1591.9m
XKO ASX 300 3597.2 34.1 0.96 1690m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3267.7 42.5 1.32 349.8m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1612.7 -25 -1.53 416.4m
XTL ASX 20 2173.2 30.3 1.41 267m
XTO ASX 100 2988.8 34.4 1.16 1273.6m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 14 60 87 191 69 366
Declines 7 39 110 223 122 434
Advancing Volume 202.6m 530.7m 565m 616.6m 78.9m 670.6m
Declining Volume 80.1m 703m 959.2m 1.03b 317.5m 1.15bn
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 8 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 3 lost ground.

The best performing index was Information Technology (XIJ), which added 18.3 points (4.62%) to 414.3 points. This index only contains 2 stocks; they traded a total of 1.9m units today. The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 1.57m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 0.33m units. The percentage gainer in the index was

  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.37 (5.31%) to $7.34 on volume of 1.6 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which gained 144.4 points (3.88%) to 3867.7 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 157.04m units; 18 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 123.86m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 33.02m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Tower Australia Group (TAL), +$0.23 (11.39%) to $2.25 on volume of 519.6 thousand shares;
  • Perpetual (PPT), +$2.97 (9.38%) to $34.62 on volume of 109.1 thousand shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.67 (9.07%) to $8.06 on volume of 6.3 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$1.37 (8.59%) to $17.31 on volume of 30.2 million shares; and
  • Bank Of Queensland (BOQ), +$0.56 (5.77%) to $10.26 on volume of 366.4 thousand shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Consumer Staples (XSJ), which climbed 178 points (3.05%) to 6016.4 points. The 13 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 54.95m units; 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 16.52m shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 38.06m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Australian Agricultural Company. (AAC), +$0.10 (6.33%) to $1.68 on volume of 809.3 thousand shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.83 (5.01%) to $17.39 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$1.14 (4.5%) to $26.49 on volume of 7.4 million shares;
  • Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL), +$0.27 (3.18%) to $8.77 on volume of 1.7 million shares; and
  • Metcash (MTS), +$0.03 (0.7%) to $4.30 on volume of 3.2 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Energy (XEJ), which dipped 374.6 points (3.08%) to 11794.7 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 71.01m units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 60.63m units, and 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10.37m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Energy Resources Of Australia (ERA), -$2.75 (14.07%) to $16.80 on volume of 531.2 thousand shares;
  • ROC Oil Company (ROC), -$0.08 (12%) to $0.55 on volume of 11.5 million shares;
  • Riversdale Mining (RIV), -$0.21 (8.9%) to $2.15 on volume of 498.1 thousand shares;
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), -$0.18 (7.06%) to $2.37 on volume of 1.4 million shares; and
  • OIL Search (OSH), -$0.3 (6.68%) to $4.19 on volume of 12.8 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Materials (XMJ), which slid 164.7 points (1.9%) to 8525.1 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 280.96m units; The 30 decliners had volume traded totalling 112.98m units, and 13 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 130.97m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Paperlinx (PPX), -$0.34 (32.08%) to $0.72 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
  • Great Southern (GTP), -$0.06 (22.92%) to $0.19 on volume of 6.4 million shares;
  • Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), -$0.2 (8.47%) to $2.16 on volume of 10.5 million shares;
  • PanAust Ltd (PNA), -$0.01 (8%) to $0.09 on volume of 14 million shares; and
  • Independence Group NL (IGO), -$0.14 (8%) to $1.61 on volume of 357.7 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 0.3 points (0.03%) to 894.4 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 706.51m units; The 13 decliners had volume traded totalling 562.06m units, and 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 112.57m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.02 (32.43%) to $0.05 on volume of 35.1 million shares;
  • Apn/Uka European Retail Property Group (AEZ), -$0.02 (24.29%) to $0.05 on volume of 892.2 thousand shares;
  • Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.05 (23.08%) to $0.15 on volume of 10.1 million shares;
  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.05 (16.98%) to $0.22 on volume of 30.7 million shares; and
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.01 (13.33%) to $0.04 on volume of 4.8 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XIJ Information Technology 414.3 18.3 4.62 2m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3867.7 144.4 3.88 157m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6016.4 178 3.05 55m
XUJ Utilities 4260.2 93.4 2.24 70m
XHJ Healthcare 8084.4 164.4 2.08 11m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1129.3 6.6 0.59 48m
XTJ Telecommunications 1259.3 5.5 0.44 58m
XNJ Industrials 3193.9 9.7 0.3 143m
XPJ Property Trusts 894.4 -0.3 -0.03 707m
XMJ Materials 8525.1 -164.7 -1.9 281m
XEJ Energy 11794.7 -374.6 -3.08 71m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
GPT GPT Group 0.93 -0.03 -2.63 420.3m
TLS Telstra Corporation. 3.72 0.02 0.54 53.8m
MGX Mount Gibson Iron 0.41 0.04 9.46 46.8m
BBW Babcock & Brown Wind Partners Group 0.90 -0.11 -10.5 45.1m
CER Centro Retail 0.05 -0.02 -32.43 35.1m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TCQ Trinity Consolidated Group 0.18 0.09 102.25 16.8m
PWK PIPE Networks 2.82 0.66 30.56 26.6k
MOF Macquarie Office Trust 0.35 0.08 29.63 30.2m
GBG Gindalbie Metals Ltd 0.64 0.12 21.9 13.8m
MIN Mineral Resources 2.00 0.31 17.99 411.6k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CER Centro Retail 0.05 -0.02 -32.43 35.1m
PPX Paperlinx 0.72 -0.34 -32.08 6.2m
FKP FKP Property Group 0.40 -0.15 -27.27 4.8m
RJT Rubicon Japan Trust 0.01 0.00 -25 210k
AEZ APN European Retail Property Group 0.05 -0.02 -24.29 892.2k