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I am getting really tired of this tendency to retrace at least half of the intraday loss. We need a cleansing purge - like when you get a gut bug and you vom and vom until your abs ache and there's nothing left but bile. Or when you get trench gut and your diarrhoea gets so bad that your sphincter clenches involuntarily because your animal brain thinks you are going to shit your intestines out.
Such things always mark the high-water mark of the bug's progress - and although you desperately want to die, you're actually purged of the bad stuff. You should eat something and stay hydrated - you'll get better from that point on.
Well... how to put this. To date in this market all we have had is the first splashy dribbles of bum-squelch.
The decline to the November lows should be viewed as that first wet gushy sound that sounds like someone turned on a tap in your bum: sure it sounds impressive, but seasoned folk know that it's just the beginning and you shouldn't put on a new pair of white undies just yet.
But what is the market doing? it's not just putting on white undies: it's putting on a white suit and is planning to go dancing. But global financial markets - and particularly the US - have chowed down on a bunch of tainted debt made from unpasteurised loans, matured at 30 degrees while sitting next to a pile of week old fish guts.
I smell something coming. something bad enough that - to extend the diarrhoea analogy - the thing will finish with a scream and a roar, and victims will turn to find their larynxes in the bowl.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - dipped reasonably hard, registering a loss of 36.8 points (1.04%), finishing at 3498.9 points.
The index hit an intraday high of 3504.6 at 2:44 pm, while the low for the day was 3458.2 - set at 11:16 am Sydney time.
As has been the case for much of the last month, it could not resist trying to bounce off its early low - and it bounced almost 50 points before softening into the close. Telstra bounced almost 5% from its low - it was down 7% at one stage but finished off just 3%. Everyone is trying to front-run a positive response to the Fed's impending rate cut.
I have written often that it is always sensible to fade the opening move (hence, buying opening weakness and selling opening strength) due to the 'NuffNuff Error' hypothesis (NNEH). the NNEH posits that opening moves are almost always driven by Dumb Money and are wrong 80% of the time.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.19bn units, 0.4% below its 10-day average of 1.19bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1062 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 325 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 290.6m units; there were 505 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 782.9m shares.
Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 141 rose while 263 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 3.5:1, with 206.35m shares traded in gainers while 721.59m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 35.2 points (0.98%), closing out the session at 3556.2 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 3498.90 | -36.80 (1.0%) |
| ASX 20 | 2137.40 | -11.40 (0.5%) |
| ASX 50 | 3609.20 | -24.10 (0.7%) |
| ASX 100 | 2935.40 | -26.80 (0.9%) |
| ASX 200 | 3556.20 | -35.20 (1.0%) |
| ASX 300 | 3536.40 | -34.30 (1.0%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3160.60 | -89.10 (2.7%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 1604.30 | -27.10 (1.7%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid modestly, falling 11.4 points (0.53%), closing out the session at 2137.4 points.
Among the 20 big guns, 9 index components finished to the upside, and 12 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 335.9m units; 9 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 60.94m shares, while the 12 decliners had volume traded totalling 274.96m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$1.10 (3.92%) to $29.15 on volume of 7.1 million shares;
- CSL (CSL), +$0.90 (3.2%) to $29.01 on volume of 4.1 million shares;
- Stockland (SGP), +$0.11 (3.08%) to $3.68 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
- Brambles (BXB), +$0.19 (2.73%) to $7.15 on volume of 6.3 million shares; and
- Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.33 (2.04%) to $16.53 on volume of 2 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Macquarie Group (MQG), -$1.50 (5.08%) to $28.00 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
- Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), -$0.38 (4.85%) to $7.45 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.64 (4.27%) to $14.36 on volume of 9.7 million shares;
- Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.51 (3.13%) to $15.79 on volume of 2.4 million shares; and
- Telstra Corporation. (TLS), -$0.11 (3.01%) to $3.54 on volume of 223.2 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) had a significantly worse day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords registered a loss of 27.1 points (1.66%), closing out the session at 1604.3 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 62 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 122 closed lower for the session.
The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 258.14m units: volume in the 62 gainers totalling 51.51m shares, with trade totalling 153.21m units in the index's 122 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Timbercorp (TIM), +$0.03 (23.81%) to $0.13 on volume of 8.2 million shares;
- OM Holdings (OMH), +$0.10 (11.11%) to $1.00 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
- Great Southern (GTP), +$0.03 (10.2%) to $0.27 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
- Rubicon America Trust (RAT), +$0.00 (10%) to $0.01 on volume of 260 thousand shares; and
- Apex Minerals NL (AXM), +$0.04 (9.72%) to $0.40 on volume of 1.4 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Macarthur Coal (MCC), -$0.78 (22.41%) to $2.70 on volume of 2.7 million shares;
- Rubicon Japan Trust (RJT), -$0 (20%) to $0.01 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
- Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), -$0.35 (14.58%) to $2.05 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
- Babcock & Brown Communities Group (BBC), -$0.03 (13.51%) to $0.16 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
- Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), -$0.02 (13.04%) to $0.10 on volume of 3.4 million shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 3498.9 | -36.8 | -1.04 | 1005.5m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 3609.2 | -24.1 | -0.66 | 519.2m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 3556.2 | -35.2 | -0.98 | 895.4m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 3536.4 | -34.3 | -0.96 | 963m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3160.6 | -89.1 | -2.74 | 194.6m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 1604.3 | -27.1 | -1.66 | 249.2m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2137.4 | -11.4 | -0.53 | 330.2m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 2935.4 | -26.8 | -0.9 | 713.8m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 9 | 31 | 57 | 141 | 62 | 325 |
| Declines | 12 | 68 | 140 | 263 | 122 | 505 |
| Advancing Volume | 60.9m | 146.9m | 178.4m | 206.3m | 51.5m | 290.6m |
| Declining Volume | 275m | 557.7m | 677.6m | 721.6m | 153.2m | 782.9m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, today's market action was dominated by sectoral declines - only one sector managed a gain for the day.
The only index that finished in the black was Healthcare (XHJ), which added 52.8 points (0.7%) to 7565.4 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 10.57m units; 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 6.28m shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 4.29m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- CSL (CSL), +$0.90 (3.2%) to $29.01 on volume of 4.1 million shares;
- Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), +$0.02 (1.85%) to $1.10 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
- Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.02 (0.22%) to $9.15 on volume of 286.3 thousand shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Energy (XEJ), which dipped 438 points (3.48%) to 12150.4 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 41.75m units; The 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 32.25m units, and none of the index components ended with a gain. The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), -$0.35 (14.58%) to $2.05 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
- Gloucester Coal (GCL), -$0.41 (12.24%) to $2.94 on volume of 893.1 thousand shares;
- Centennial Coal Company (CEY), -$0.32 (11.55%) to $2.45 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
- Aquila Resources (AQA), -$0.31 (9.25%) to $3.04 on volume of 120.8 thousand shares; and
- Felix Resources (FLX), -$0.77 (9.14%) to $7.65 on volume of 525.7 thousand shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Telecommunications (XTJ), which slid 29.6 points (2.39%) to 1210.1 points. The 3 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 229.17m units; The 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 226.1m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 3.07m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Telstra Corporation. (TLS), -$0.11 (3.01%) to $3.54 on volume of 223.2 million shares; and
- Singapore Telecommunications. (SGT), -$0.01 (0.37%) to $2.67 on volume of 2.9 million shares.
Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 19.2 points (2.15%) to 873.3 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 202.96m units; The 17 decliners had volume traded totalling 151.57m units, and 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 16.93m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.06 (21.15%) to $0.21 on volume of 18.8 million shares;
- Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0.01 (13.64%) to $0.04 on volume of 11.9 million shares;
- Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.08 (13.33%) to $0.52 on volume of 42.7 million shares;
- Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), -$0.02 (13.04%) to $0.10 on volume of 3.4 million shares; and
- ING Industrial Fund (IIF), -$0.02 (9.3%) to $0.20 on volume of 4.3 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHJ | Healthcare | 7565.4 | 52.8 | 0.7 | 11m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3076.4 | -2.2 | -0.07 | 90m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 3785.3 | -4.2 | -0.11 | 94m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5854.1 | -34.1 | -0.58 | 34m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4136.4 | -35.8 | -0.86 | 28m |
| XMJ | Materials | 8552.7 | -106.5 | -1.23 | 144m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 400.8 | -5.3 | -1.31 | 1m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1113.1 | -16.1 | -1.43 | 41m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 873.3 | -19.2 | -2.15 | 203m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1210.1 | -29.6 | -2.39 | 229m |
| XEJ | Energy | 12150.4 | -438 | -3.48 | 42m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 3.54 | -0.11 | -3.01 | 223.2m |
| GMG | Goodman Group | 0.52 | -0.08 | -13.33 | 42.7m |
| CNP | Centro Properties Group | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0 | 19.8m |
| MOF | Macquarie Office Trust | 0.21 | -0.06 | -21.15 | 18.8m |
| WBC | Westpac Banking Corporation | 16.49 | 0.06 | 0.37 | 17.7m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRE | Crescent Gold | 0.08 | 0.02 | 26.15 | 283.3k |
| TIM | Timbercorp | 0.13 | 0.03 | 23.81 | 8.2m |
| RNY | Reckson New York Property Trust | 0.14 | 0.02 | 16.67 | 33.1k |
| PGA | Photon Group | 1.34 | 0.15 | 12.13 | 26.9k |
| OIF | Orchard Industrial Property Fund | 0.20 | 0.02 | 11.11 | 314.3k |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCC | Macarthur Coal | 2.70 | -0.78 | -22.41 | 2.7m |
| MOF | Macquarie Office Trust | 0.21 | -0.06 | -21.15 | 18.8m |
| RJT | Rubicon Japan Trust | 0.01 | 0.00 | -20 | 1.2m |
| CPR | Clive Peeters | 0.12 | -0.03 | -17.24 | 241k |
| AIM | AIM Resources | 0.09 | -0.02 | -15 | 20.5k |
