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D
espite having a reasonably decent vocabulary, and some familiarity with letters and words and such, I have trouble expressing my dismay at the nuffnuffs who bought the overnight SPI. It was as if madness had bred with lunacy and their bastard offspring had taken massive doses of crack and Prozac. Man, that Dumb Money At Work sign was up, and it had those flashing things set up all 'round it, and there were sirens and announcements over the Tannoy saying "Attention: Look Out Below... Dumb Money Is Buying".
SPISpyers certainly felt a pinch in the vord-al region overnight as the thing rose and rose and rose... we were short from 3620-odd (for it was written yestermorn "Thou shalt short the SPI at the noon hour - yea verily at the noon hour shalt thou short the SPI" or words to that effect).
So in the pre-market this morning, I reckon there may have been some among the faithful that got a bit Thomas-y in the doubt department.
In the overnight, the SPI got as high as - and I warn you, this is not a typo - 7361 ... oops - that was a typo ... I meant 3761.
So doubtless at about 7 a.m., there were folks who thought "Hmmm... this contrarian lark sucks rancid donkey balls"; for verily the faithful were tested and there was skittishness amongst the horses.
They need not have been concerned - as it was ordained, so mote it be...the SPI fell 208 points between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m.; by 10:30a.m., the SPI had hit the predestined SPISpy targets, and big-lot traders put a stop under the last half of their position and let it ride. Huzzah.
And by 11 a.m., everyone who bought after 10:15 a.m. Monday was underwater. Just as it should be.
Seriously though: the short was mistimed a tad and thus goes down as a slightly sucky call despite the fact that everyone was able to pocket a good hearty gain. I am sure that every Monday Morning half-back on the planet could find a perfect exit and subsequent re-entry, but there was no valid signal to do either.
Doin' stuff without a signal? That ain't how we roll, dog.
Anyhow - when all was done and dusted, one-lotters booked a 5% gain, 2-lotters booked a 7.8% gain, and people trading 3 or more collected a little over 10%.
Not bad for a one-day return on a bad call. One-lotters who subscribe to the SPISpy paid for the month's subscription with one trade and had change for a pretty terrific bottle of red (at least Bin 707).
That's how we roll, yo.
While I'm tooting - have you seen AUD lately? You might recall from the Currencies section of the OzRant of Thursday, November 20, 2008 when AUD was 0.6113 - even after today's debacle in the AUD, that trade has profited to the tune of $4000 per $5400 margin... this morning at 7:30 a.m. Strayan time it hit the magic '100% of margin' target. But back to the call itself:
Currency futures lent a bid to the USD again... a short is setting up. The Australian dollar got absolutely belted. Buy AUD pretty much right now.
We won't mention the short position in the US long bond - that is still playing out, and much as it hurts at the moment, it will probably be the most valuable position in the Rant quiver by the end of the year. The long position in Crudewas likewise a little early - but watch it go.
Now - let's survey the Strayan market landscape...
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - lost 20.1 points (0.57%), finishing at 3533.7 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3556.3 at the open, while the low for the day was 3495.2 - set at 10:45 am Sydney time.
If that seems wildly at odds with what was written above ,consider that the majority of the decline in the SPI happened before 10 a.m.; it was only a defence of 3550 in the SPI futures that saved a bigger meltdown.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.15bn units, 1.1% above its 10-day average of 1.14bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1038 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 426 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 446.7m units; there were 371 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 570.2m shares.
Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 208 rose while 179 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.3:1, with 364.53m shares traded in gainers while 465.05m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 27.3 points (0.75%), closing out the session at 3604.3 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 3533.70 | -20.10 (0.6%) |
| ASX 20 | 2175.30 | -23.60 (1.1%) |
| ASX 50 | 3654.30 | -35.40 (1.0%) |
| ASX 100 | 2976.10 | -24.50 (0.8%) |
| ASX 200 | 3604.30 | -27.30 (0.8%) |
| ASX 300 | 3582.80 | -26.00 (0.7%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3238.00 | 9.80 (0.3%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 1611.10 | 7.10 (0.4%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - registered a loss of 23.6 points (1.07%), closing out the session at 2175.3 points.
Among the 20 big guns, 5 index components finished to the upside, and 14 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 146.08m units; 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 35.14m shares, while the 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 107.61m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$2.06 (7.87%) to $28.23 on volume of 3.2 million shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$1.23 (4.52%) to $28.45 on volume of 20.3 million shares;
- RIO Tinto (RIO), +$1.27 (3.96%) to $33.35 on volume of 7.7 million shares;
- Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.36 (2.23%) to $16.51 on volume of 2.5 million shares; and
- Macquarie Group (MQG), +$0.15 (0.5%) to $30.05 on volume of 1.5 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$2.8 (8.54%) to $30.00 on volume of 11.3 million shares;
- Stockland (SGP), -$0.24 (5.96%) to $3.79 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.83 (5.56%) to $14.10 on volume of 13.7 million shares;
- Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.71 (5.16%) to $13.04 on volume of 6.7 million shares; and
- National Australia Bank (NAB), -$1.06 (5.06%) to $19.90 on volume of 8.9 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) posted a gain despite weakness in the big-caps. The Small Ords advanced by under a percent, adding 7.1 points (0.44%), closing out the session at 1611.1 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 101 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 81 closed lower for the session.
The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 291.58m units: volume in the 101 gainers totalling 125.31m shares, with trade totalling 140.07m units in the index's 81 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Sino Gold Mining (SGX), +$0.41 (13.31%) to $3.49 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
- Moly Mines (MOL), +$0.03 (11.54%) to $0.29 on volume of 141.7 thousand shares;
- Apex Minerals NL (AXM), +$0.03 (10.71%) to $0.31 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
- Industrea (IDL), +$0.02 (10.71%) to $0.16 on volume of 2.8 million shares; and
- Admiralty Resources NL (ADY), +$0.00 (10%) to $0.01 on volume of 31.5 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- ING Real Estate Community Living Group (ILF), -$0.01 (14.93%) to $0.06 on volume of 35.6 million shares;
- Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), -$0.01 (13.79%) to $0.05 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
- Aquila Resources (AQA), -$0.41 (13.36%) to $2.66 on volume of 267.2 thousand shares;
- Energy World Corporation Ltd (EWC), -$0.04 (12.73%) to $0.24 on volume of 2.2 million shares; and
- United Minerals Corporation NL (UMC), -$0.06 (11.76%) to $0.45 on volume of 64.5 thousand shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 3533.7 | -20.1 | -0.57 | 906.7m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 3654.3 | -35.4 | -0.96 | 323.6m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 3604.3 | -27.3 | -0.75 | 744.6m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 3582.8 | -26 | -0.72 | 864.6m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3238 | 9.8 | 0.3 | 258.4m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 1611.1 | 7.1 | 0.44 | 282.6m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2175.3 | -23.6 | -1.07 | 140.4m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 2976.1 | -24.5 | -0.82 | 582m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 5 | 41 | 90 | 208 | 101 | 426 |
| Declines | 14 | 51 | 100 | 179 | 81 | 371 |
| Advancing Volume | 35.1m | 223.7m | 285.9m | 364.5m | 125.3m | 446.7m |
| Declining Volume | 107.6m | 320.2m | 412.5m | 465m | 140.1m | 570.2m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, it was pretty much even stevens, with a very slight lead to the duds... the 5 that had an "up" day were just shaded by the remaining 6 which didn't.
The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 279.5 points (3.59%) to 8055.6 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 182.12m units; 31 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 94.3m shares, while the 11 decliners had volume traded totalling 81.55m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Sino Gold Mining (SGX), +$0.41 (13.31%) to $3.49 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
- OM Holdings (OMH), +$0.09 (9.14%) to $1.08 on volume of 685.2 thousand shares;
- Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), +$0.07 (8.64%) to $0.88 on volume of 148.5 thousand shares;
- Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$2.06 (7.87%) to $28.23 on volume of 3.2 million shares; and
- Independence Group NL (IGO), +$0.10 (7.75%) to $1.39 on volume of 438.3 thousand shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Information Technology (XIJ), which gained 7 points (1.79%) to 399.1 points. This index only contains 2 stocks; they traded a total of 2.44m units today and both rose for the session -
- Iress Market Technology (IRE), +$0.19 (4.59%) to $4.33 on volume of 210 thousand shares; and
- Computershare (CPU), +$0.10 (1.43%) to $7.09 on volume of 2.2 million shares.
The bronze medal for today goes to Energy (XEJ), which climbed 39.2 points (0.34%) to 11701.9 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 34.12m units; 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 26.24m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 7.89m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.80 (6.5%) to $13.10 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
- Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.38 (5.86%) to $6.86 on volume of 840.9 thousand shares;
- Gloucester Coal (GCL), +$0.16 (5.1%) to $3.30 on volume of 601.7 thousand shares;
- Beach Petroleum (BPT), +$0.04 (4.43%) to $0.83 on volume of 3.9 million shares; and
- Arrow Energy (AOE), +$0.08 (4.17%) to $2.00 on volume of 3 million shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which dipped 148.6 points (3.67%) to 3896.6 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 90.91m units; The 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 81.89m units, and 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.74m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- FKP Property Group (FKP), -$0.08 (10.14%) to $0.67 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
- Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$2.8 (8.54%) to $30.00 on volume of 11.3 million shares;
- Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.07 (7.98%) to $0.75 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
- Babcock & Brown (BNB), -$0.01 (6.06%) to $0.16 on volume of 18.9 million shares; and
- IOOF Holdings (IFL), -$0.19 (5.96%) to $3.00 on volume of 55.6 thousand shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 25 points (2.71%) to 896.7 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 185.25m units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 88.98m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 80.21m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Centro Retail (CER), -$0.01 (10.45%) to $0.06 on volume of 5.9 million shares;
- Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), -$0.02 (9.76%) to $0.19 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
- Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.08 (9.38%) to $0.73 on volume of 14 million shares;
- Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.01 (7.94%) to $0.06 on volume of 5.6 million shares; and
- Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0 (7.84%) to $0.05 on volume of 11.5 million shares.
Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which slid 97.9 points (1.59%) to 6076.8 points. The 13 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 33.91m units; The 9 decliners had volume traded totalling 26.34m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 7.57m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Goodman Fielder (GFF), -$0.07 (4.64%) to $1.34 on volume of 6.4 million shares;
- Timbercorp (TIM), -$0 (4.12%) to $0.09 on volume of 2.4 million shares;
- Australian Agricultural Company. (AAC), -$0.05 (3.85%) to $1.25 on volume of 784.7 thousand shares;
- Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.2 (3.53%) to $5.46 on volume of 8.4 million shares; and
- AWB (AWB), -$0.1 (3.33%) to $2.90 on volume of 987.1 thousand shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 8055.6 | 279.5 | 3.59 | 182m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 399.1 | 7 | 1.79 | 2m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11701.9 | 39.2 | 0.34 | 34m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3140.3 | 9 | 0.29 | 87m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 8396.9 | 5.1 | 0.06 | 10m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1407.7 | -2.1 | -0.15 | 33m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1136 | -10 | -0.87 | 50m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4123.2 | -62.7 | -1.5 | 45m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6076.8 | -97.9 | -1.59 | 34m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 896.7 | -25 | -2.71 | 185m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 3896.6 | -148.6 | -3.67 | 91m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXS | Dexus Property Group | 0.90 | 0.02 | 2.27 | 38.3m |
| ILF | ING Real Estate Community Living Group | 0.06 | -0.01 | -14.93 | 35.6m |
| ADY | Admiralty Resources NL | 0.01 | 0.00 | 10 | 31.5m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 4.21 | -0.01 | -0.24 | 27.2m |
| GPT | GPT Group | 0.90 | 0.10 | 11.8 | 23.5m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVJ | Avjennings | 0.40 | 0.10 | 33.33 | 57.2k |
| KBC | KeyBridge Capital | 0.12 | 0.02 | 14.29 | 1.4m |
| TOE | Toro Energy | 0.13 | 0.02 | 13.64 | 488.3k |
| GPM | GEO Property Group | 0.17 | 0.02 | 13.33 | 1.5m |
| SGX | Sino Gold Mining | 3.49 | 0.41 | 13.31 | 1.2m |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILF | ING Real Estate Community Living Group | 0.06 | -0.01 | -14.93 | 35.6m |
| BBP | Babcock & Brown Power | 0.05 | -0.01 | -13.79 | 5.7m |
| AQA | Aquila Resources | 2.66 | -0.41 | -13.36 | 267.2k |
| FEA | Forest Enterprises | 0.30 | -0.05 | -13.04 | 87.8k |
| HLG | Hedley Leisure And Gaming Property Fund | 0.27 | -0.04 | -12.9 | 50.5k |
