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Oh nuffnuffs of the world... when will you learn? Yet again, you dive into the market, putting on 'Buy at Market' orders or 'Buy On Open' orders, so sure that the Strayan market is off to the races and everybody's going to make a poultice, given the 300-odd point meltup in the Dow.
Yet time and time again (the precise percentages are known to the cognoscienti) the opening surge (either up or down) sets the high (or low) of the day. Nuffies that buy (or sell) in order to slavishly follow the US, find that by the end of the day their purchases (or sales) are underwater.
But they come back and do it all over again tomorrow. And one time in five the market continues the opening move, and everybody remembers that and feels like a genius... like the guy who bets on fifteen different races, and only mentions the one winner in the pub.
Oh - one last thing... behold my new profile photo. The fuzziness of the shot is not so that it makes me look more lovelier; it is a testament to my inability to use a digital camera. It's ART... I call it "4 acre forehead".
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced modestly, rising 16.1 points (0.46%), finishing at 3515 points. The only reason that it is showing any gain whatsoever, is because of manipulation of the closing print in the post-session settlement period.
The index hit an intraday high of 3568.5 at 10:10 am, while the low for the day was 3497.7 - set at 3:13 pm Sydney time.
The 'fade the nuffie' hypothesis paid dividends yet again - thank heaven for Gruen & Gazycki. (I think I spelled Gyzycki's name wrong - I am too busy to look it up so I apologise).
David Gruen was a senior researcher at the Reserve Bank, and together with Marion Gazycki they wrote a very sensible paper on the survivability of 'anchored' traders in currency markets - that is, traders whose expectations were 'anchored' to the past (e.g., in this case the overnight US session).
G&G (as I call the paper) showed that a market could 'support' a proportion of traders who had expectations which were 'anchored' - expectations that contained a systematic error. I can no longer quote the work chapter and verse, but I was mightily impressed by it. In short, the damage can be such that some anchored traders survive in perpetuity despite having lower expected returns than 'rational' traders.
And so it is with nuffies: partly it's the fact that there are new nuffies all the time, who replace the nuffies who blowup completely (and of course there are nuffies who become Rant readers and leave nuffiedom behind). But partly, the market gives nuffies just enough 'sugar' to keep them in the game: about one day in five, the market will reward anybody who follows the opening move. the other 4 days in five, it rewards the contrarian. And yet contrarianism is really quite hard.
Anyway - back to the numbers...
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.28bn units, 16.1% above its 10-day average of 1.1bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1011 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 421 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 761.3m units; there were 372 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 374.7m shares.
Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 215 rose while 177 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.1:1, with 679.9m shares traded in gainers while 316.81m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 14.4 points (0.40%), closing out the session at 3570.6 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 3515.00 | 16.10 (0.5%) |
| ASX 20 | 2143.60 | 6.20 (0.3%) |
| ASX 50 | 3620.90 | 11.70 (0.3%) |
| ASX 100 | 2946.20 | 10.80 (0.4%) |
| ASX 200 | 3570.60 | 14.40 (0.4%) |
| ASX 300 | 3552.30 | 15.90 (0.4%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3183.10 | 22.50 (0.7%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 1627.30 | 23.00 (1.4%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - advanced by under a percent, adding 6.2 points (0.29%), closing out the session at 2143.6 points.
Among the 20 big guns, 12 index components finished to the upside, and 8 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 229.38m units; 12 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 150.59m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 78.6m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- CSL (CSL), +$1.19 (4.1%) to $30.20 on volume of 3.6 million shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$1.40 (4.05%) to $36.00 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
- Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.59 (3.74%) to $16.38 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
- RIO Tinto (RIO), +$1.12 (2.86%) to $40.32 on volume of 3.6 million shares; and
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.60 (2.43%) to $25.30 on volume of 4.8 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.77 (4.67%) to $15.72 on volume of 21.1 million shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.66 (4.6%) to $13.70 on volume of 18.6 million shares;
- Stockland (SGP), -$0.15 (4.08%) to $3.53 on volume of 11.2 million shares;
- Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), -$0.22 (2.95%) to $7.23 on volume of 5.3 million shares; and
- Macquarie Group (MQG), -$0.57 (2.04%) to $27.43 on volume of 1.6 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) moved up 23 points (1.43%), closing out the session at 1627.3 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 123 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 63 closed lower for the session.
The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 334.17m units: volume in the 123 gainers totalling 201.27m shares, with trade totalling 113.99m units in the index's 63 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Centro Retail (CER), +$0.03 (42.62%) to $0.09 on volume of 27.4 million shares;
- Mirvac Industrial Trust (MIX), +$0.03 (30.21%) to $0.13 on volume of 300 thousand shares;
- Centro Properties Group (CNP), +$0.02 (26.44%) to $0.11 on volume of 50.8 million shares;
- Mineral Deposits (MDL), +$0.13 (23.81%) to $0.65 on volume of 1.6 million shares; and
- Macquarie Media Group (MMG), +$0.13 (21.74%) to $0.70 on volume of 2.7 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Rubicon America Trust (RAT), -$0 (18.18%) to $0.01 on volume of 874.4 thousand shares;
- Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.01 (14.63%) to $0.04 on volume of 13.3 million shares;
- AWB (AWB), -$0.35 (12.28%) to $2.50 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
- Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.03 (12.2%) to $0.18 on volume of 6.8 million shares; and
- Specialty Fashion Group (SFH), -$0.03 (12%) to $0.22 on volume of 432.4 thousand shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 3515 | 16.1 | 0.46 | 1055.6m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 3620.9 | 11.7 | 0.32 | 406.6m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 3570.6 | 14.4 | 0.4 | 886.3m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 3552.3 | 15.9 | 0.45 | 1003.3m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3183.1 | 22.5 | 0.71 | 270.6m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 1627.3 | 23 | 1.43 | 326.1m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2143.6 | 6.2 | 0.29 | 218.2m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 2946.2 | 10.8 | 0.37 | 677.2m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 12 | 55 | 115 | 215 | 123 | 421 |
| Declines | 8 | 41 | 73 | 177 | 63 | 372 |
| Advancing Volume | 150.6m | 471.7m | 627.6m | 679.9m | 201.3m | 761.3m |
| Declining Volume | 78.6m | 187.1m | 270.8m | 316.8m | 114m | 374.7m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, the outcome favoured the upside, but only just - the 6 advancing sectors just triumphed over the 4 losing sectors.
The best performing index was Energy (XEJ), which added 367.2 points (3.02%) to 12517.6 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 29.61m units; 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 22.13m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 7.47m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.18 (7.53%) to $2.57 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
- Worleyparsons (WOR), +$1.01 (7.4%) to $14.65 on volume of 921.2 thousand shares;
- Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.45 (6.91%) to $6.96 on volume of 795.3 thousand shares;
- Beach Petroleum (BPT), +$0.05 (5.99%) to $0.89 on volume of 3.8 million shares; and
- Arrow Energy (AOE), +$0.10 (4.55%) to $2.30 on volume of 2.6 million shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Healthcare (XHJ), which gained 198.3 points (2.62%) to 7763.7 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 12.85m units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 8.53m shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 4.32m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- CSL (CSL), +$1.19 (4.1%) to $30.20 on volume of 3.6 million shares;
- Ansell (ANN), +$0.35 (2.9%) to $12.40 on volume of 915 thousand shares;
- Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.18 (1.42%) to $12.90 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
- Primary Health Care (PRY), +$0.06 (1.42%) to $4.30 on volume of 1.3 million shares; and
- ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.06 (1.15%) to $5.28 on volume of 718.8 thousand shares.
The bronze medal for today goes to Industrials (XNJ), which climbed 45.4 points (1.48%) to 3121.8 points. The 32 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 86.68m units; 21 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 60.84m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 15.83m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL), +$0.05 (14.93%) to $0.39 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
- Transpacific Industries (TPI), +$0.27 (13.64%) to $2.25 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
- Bradken (BKN), +$0.31 (11.79%) to $2.94 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
- Macmahon Holdings (MAH), +$0.04 (10.53%) to $0.42 on volume of 4.3 million shares; and
- Boart Longyear (BLY), +$0.02 (9.52%) to $0.23 on volume of 9.4 million shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Information Technology (XIJ), which dipped 5.9 points (1.47%) to 394.9 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 1.38m units; The sole declining stock traded 0.94m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.44m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Computershare (CPU), -$0.13 (1.84%) to $6.92 on volume of 943.2 thousand shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which slid 50.6 points (1.34%) to 3734.7 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 102.12m units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 71.36m units, and 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 29.33m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Babcock & Brown (BNB), -$0.01 (6.06%) to $0.16 on volume of 6.6 million shares;
- HFA Holdings (HFA), -$0.01 (4.76%) to $0.10 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.77 (4.67%) to $15.72 on volume of 21.1 million shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.66 (4.6%) to $13.70 on volume of 18.6 million shares; and
- AXA Asia Pacific Holdings (AXA), -$0.18 (3.89%) to $4.45 on volume of 3.3 million shares.
Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which slid 7.5 points (0.67%) to 1105.6 points. The 23 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 49.55m units; The 12 decliners had volume traded totalling 36.08m units, and 9 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 9.38m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Crown (CWN), -$0.3 (5.51%) to $5.14 on volume of 5.2 million shares;
- David Jones (DJS), -$0.13 (4.36%) to $2.85 on volume of 2 million shares;
- Tabcorp Holdings (TAH), -$0.19 (2.96%) to $6.23 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
- West Australian Newspapers Holdings (WAN), -$0.15 (2.96%) to $4.92 on volume of 501.7 thousand shares; and
- Austar United Communications (AUN), -$0.02 (2.24%) to $0.66 on volume of 2.4 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEJ | Energy | 12517.6 | 367.2 | 3.02 | 30m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 7763.7 | 198.3 | 2.62 | 13m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3121.8 | 45.4 | 1.48 | 87m |
| XMJ | Materials | 8668.7 | 116 | 1.36 | 211m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5902.8 | 48.7 | 0.83 | 37m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1211.6 | 1.5 | 0.12 | 94m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 873.3 | 0 | 0 | 282m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4128.2 | -8.2 | -0.2 | 34m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1105.6 | -7.5 | -0.67 | 50m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 3734.7 | -50.6 | -1.34 | 102m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 394.9 | -5.9 | -1.47 | 1m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 3.56 | 0.02 | 0.56 | 86.5m |
| CNP | Centro Properties Group | 0.11 | 0.02 | 26.44 | 50.8m |
| MGX | Mount Gibson Iron | 0.35 | 0.10 | 40 | 44m |
| GMG | Goodman Group | 0.61 | 0.09 | 16.35 | 34m |
| MOF | Macquarie Office Trust | 0.23 | 0.02 | 9.76 | 29.4m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CER | Centro Retail | 0.09 | 0.03 | 42.62 | 27.4m |
| MGX | Mount Gibson Iron | 0.35 | 0.10 | 40 | 44m |
| MIX | Mirvac Industrial Trust | 0.13 | 0.03 | 30.21 | 300k |
| CNP | Centro Properties Group | 0.11 | 0.02 | 26.44 | 50.8m |
| MDL | Mineral Deposits | 0.65 | 0.13 | 23.81 | 1.6m |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMV | CMA Corporation | 0.13 | -0.06 | -30.56 | 45.7k |
| TCQ | Trinity Consolidated Group | 0.25 | -0.06 | -19.35 | 677.7k |
| RAT | Rubicon America Trust | 0.01 | 0.00 | -18.18 | 874.4k |
| IIF | ING Industrial Fund | 0.16 | -0.04 | -17.95 | 5.9m |
| MDT | Macquarie DDR Trust | 0.04 | -0.01 | -14.63 | 13.3m |
