Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, December 15, 2008

OzRant: Monday Nuffie-Spurt Stalls Early...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The US government actually kept schtum about the bailout over the weekend (thus far) - bear in mind it is still Sunday in the US though. So the surge in today's market was more about hazarding a guess that the US will respond positively to any announcement (and there is the Fed rate cut which will happen this week - I think 0.25 - and also it's quadruple witching so there should be a real roller-coaster).

Anyway - the All Ords gained back Friday's slump, plus 1.7 points. Anybody who bought the Australian market after 10:03 today lost money for the day. 

I have made no secret of the fact that the US market should be re-shorted (if you're not short already) the moment the probability distribution of the automaker bailout collapses - that is, once all uncertainty about it is removed. I also think that short interest rates are whacky and should be sold (I said that last week too), and that the long bond short - which is currently a huge spike in my ass - will be the trade of the year.

Fortunately we have massive gains from Euro, Gold and AUD longs which more than offset the losses on the US 30-year bonds. In other words, we bought some wiggle-room to be able to short and yet watch this last historic blowoff... without going bankrupt.

But there is better news than that - dearest Reader. Crom, Marduk and Sutekh have granted me a boon.

Some time ago (as it turns out it was December 22, 2002) I wrote a pretty impassioned piece about how crony-capitalism would not be conducive to the advancement of nanotechnology (in its pure form). I had thought this piece lost - and was wonderly wroth.

However the Mighty Mavro had saved it on a backup disk, and it was restored to me; moreover, it gave me the wherewithal to hunt out other, similar things that I wrote at about the same time.

I am firmly of the opinion that humanity has to seize back the reins of power in order to propel ourselves through the next big technological change barrier - and we have to be merciless in throwing aside the parasites that use us to enrich themselves (well, they don't use me hardly at all - I am a royal pain in the ass for them... on purpose).

We are literally a couple of years - ten at most - from fulfilling something that I wrote as an exam answer for Comparative Economic Systems (or Capitalism - Contrasting Views) back in 1994: in it I wrote that Marxian 'de-stratification' of society would come from within capitalism; that far from requiring a vanguard of the proletariat and all the coercive machinery of the State and Party, the final 'conquering' of economic scarcity and the fulfilment of man's seemingly-unlimited wants would be achieved by capitalism - with its reward for innovation and its tendency to generate technological advances.

The actual answer went on for pages and pages - it was among the best answers I ever gave in a written exam. Modesty prevents me from telling you that I got an 'A' for the subject: Professor Ward was a committed Marxist, too - a testament to his open-mindedness that he gave an equally-committed anarcho-capitalist such a grade.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - surged a whopping 83.2 points (2.41%), finishing at 3535.7 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3598.9 at 11:29 am, while the low for the day was 3535.5 - set at 3:38 pm Sydney time. As usual the 'short the nuffie orgasm' was a payoff strategy.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.24bn units, 4.3% above its 10-day average of 1.19bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1031 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 480 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 775.6m units; there were 325 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 374.7m shares.

Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 263 rose while 136 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.8:1, with 590.8m shares traded in gainers while 331.86m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - hurtled skyward to the tune of 81 points (2.31%), closing out the session at 3591.4 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3535.70 83.20 (2.4%)
ASX 20 2148.80 36.70 (1.7%)
ASX 50 3633.30 75.60 (2.1%)
ASX 100 2962.20 64.40 (2.2%)
ASX 200 3591.40 81.00 (2.3%)
ASX 300 3570.70 79.60 (2.3%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3249.70 93.40 (3.0%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1631.40 47.70 (3.0%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 36.7 points (1.74%), closing out the session at 2148.8 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 15 index components finished to the upside, and 6 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 234.83m units; 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 70.24m shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 164.59m units. The major percentage gainers within the index smelt like Resources ...

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$3.69 (10.19%) to $39.90 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$2.43 (7.35%) to $35.49 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$2.08 (7.22%) to $30.90 on volume of 16 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.88 (5.74%) to $16.20 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$1.49 (5.3%) to $29.60 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Telstra Corporation. (TLS), -$0.48 (11.62%) to $3.65 on volume of 139.7 million shares after getting a smack on the bum from the government because its homework was not up to par;
  • CSL (CSL), -$1.09 (3.73%) to $28.11 on volume of 3.9 million shares - because nobody bathes in blood or blood products (as I said when CSL was above $50);
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.14 (1.03%) to $13.41 on volume of 6 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), -$0.09 (0.47%) to $19.01 on volume of 5.1 million shares; and
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$0.1 (0.36%) to $28.05 on volume of 5.3 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) absolutely wiped the floor with its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 47.7 points (3.01%), closing out the session at 1631.4 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 131 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 55 closed lower for the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 261.43m units: volume in the 131 gainers totalling 146.6m shares, with trade totalling 46.99m units in the index's 55 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Rubicon Japan Trust (RJT), +$0.01 (50%) to $0.02 on volume of 587.1 thousand shares;
  • Aquila Resources (AQA), +$0.93 (38.43%) to $3.35 on volume of 373.6 thousand shares;
  • Perilya (PEM), +$0.04 (25.81%) to $0.20 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Rubicon America Trust (RAT), +$0.00 (25%) to $0.01 on volume of 159.3 thousand shares; and
  • Great Southern (GTP), +$0.05 (22.5%) to $0.25 on volume of 506.9 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), -$0.03 (20.69%) to $0.12 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Alesco Corporation (ALS), -$0.29 (12.45%) to $2.04 on volume of 790.9 thousand shares;
  • City Pacific Limited (CIY), -$0.01 (9.59%) to $0.07 on volume of 24.1 thousand shares;
  • Charter Hall Group (CHC), -$0.02 (7.14%) to $0.26 on volume of 513.8 thousand shares; and
  • Galileo Japan Trust (GJT), -$0 (6.67%) to $0.06 on volume of 238.5 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3535.7 83.2 2.41 1001.3m
XFL ASX 50 3633.3 75.6 2.12 391.5m
XJO ASX 200 3591.4 81 2.31 897.7m
XKO ASX 300 3570.7 79.6 2.28 965.1m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3249.7 93.4 2.96 325.2m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1631.4 47.7 3.01 248.4m
XTL ASX 20 2148.8 36.7 1.74 229.7m
XTO ASX 100 2962.2 64.4 2.22 716.7m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 15 79 156 263 131 480
Declines 6 19 38 136 55 325
Advancing Volume 70.2m 442.2m 552m 590.8m 146.6m 775.6m
Declining Volume 164.6m 274.7m 305m 331.9m 47m 374.7m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 9 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 2 lost ground.

The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 558.1 points (6.89%) to 8659.2 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 163.51m units; 42 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 152.54m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 0.92m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Perilya Limited (PEM), +$0.04 (25.81%) to $0.20 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Great Southern (GTP), +$0.05 (22.5%) to $0.25 on volume of 506.9 thousand shares;
  • Sundance Resources (SDL), +$0.01 (18.06%) to $0.09 on volume of 14.1 million shares;
  • Western Areas NL (WSA), +$0.48 (15.05%) to $3.67 on volume of 708.2 thousand shares; and
  • Aquarius Platinum (AQP), +$0.39 (12.75%) to $3.45 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Energy (XEJ), which gained 664 points (5.57%) to 12588.4 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 40.13m units; 17 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 36.22m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 0.7m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Aquila Resources (AQA), +$0.93 (38.43%) to $3.35 on volume of 373.6 thousand shares;
  • Arrow Energy (AOE), +$0.30 (15%) to $2.30 on volume of 4.3 million shares;
  • Worleyparsons (WOR), +$1.47 (11.2%) to $14.60 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
  • Paladin Energy (PDN), +$0.25 (9.69%) to $2.83 on volume of 3.8 million shares; and
  • Centennial Coal Company (CEY), +$0.22 (8.63%) to $2.77 on volume of 3.9 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which climbed 37.5 points (3.44%) to 1129.2 points. The 23 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 83.71m units; 21 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 78.89m shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 4.82m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • David Jones (DJS), +$0.22 (7.83%) to $3.03 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN), +$0.17 (7.46%) to $2.45 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Seven Network (SEV), +$0.44 (7.46%) to $6.34 on volume of 545 thousand shares;
  • APN News & Media (APN), +$0.16 (7.11%) to $2.41 on volume of 494.2 thousand shares; and
  • JB Hi-Fi (JBH), +$0.48 (5.65%) to $8.98 on volume of 703.5 thousand shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Telecommunications (XTJ), which dipped 142 points (10.28%) to 1239.7 points. The 3 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 147.87m units, but it was al lTelstra today. TLS traded 139.74m units, and the other 2 index components both rose, with rising volume amounting to 8.13m shares. 

Oh Manuel, Manuel, why didn't you have someone do your homework for you?

  • Telstra Corporation. (TLS), -$0.48 (11.62%) to $3.65 on volume of 139.7 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 151.8 points (1.98%) to 7512.6 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 10.82m units; The 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 6.87m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.95m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • CSL (CSL), -$1.09 (3.73%) to $28.11 on volume of 3.9 million shares;
  • Healthscope (HSP), -$0.07 (1.75%) to $3.92 on volume of 737 thousand shares;
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), -$0.22 (1.68%) to $12.85 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Ansell (ANN), -$0.2 (1.62%) to $12.15 on volume of 783.8 thousand shares; and
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), -$0.04 (0.44%) to $9.13 on volume of 397.2 thousand shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XMJ Materials 8659.2 558.1 6.89 164m
XEJ Energy 12588.4 664 5.57 40m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1129.2 37.5 3.44 84m
XIJ Information Technology 406.1 12.8 3.25 1m
XUJ Utilities 4172.2 128.6 3.18 35m
XNJ Industrials 3078.6 68.6 2.28 85m
XSJ Consumer Staples 5888.2 113 1.96 31m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3789.5 64 1.72 73m
XPJ Property Trusts 892.5 2.7 0.3 248m
XHJ Healthcare 7512.6 -151.8 -1.98 11m
XTJ Telecommunications 1239.7 -142 -10.28 148m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation. 3.65 -0.48 -11.62 139.7m
MOF Macquarie Office Trust 0.26 0.05 23.81 73.8m
CMJ Consolidated Media Holdings 2.10 0.10 5 50.9m
DXS Dexus Property Group 0.93 0.02 2.2 26.3m
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.09 0.00 0 19.8m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
RJT Rubicon Japan Trust 0.02 0.01 50 587.1k
AQA Aquila Resources 3.35 0.93 38.43 373.6k
MEO MEO Australia 0.14 0.03 27.27 2.9m
PEM Perilya 0.20 0.04 25.81 1.5m
RAT Rubicon America Trust 0.01 0.00 25 159.3k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CPR Clive Peeters 0.15 -0.05 -25.64 882.8k
AVM Anvil Mining 0.95 -0.25 -20.83 13.5k
TSO Tishman Speyer Office Fund 0.12 -0.03 -20.69 2m
ALS Alesco Corporation 2.04 -0.29 -12.45 790.9k
WEC White Energy Company 1.41 -0.20 -12.19 11.2k