Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, December 29, 2008

OzRant: Why Buy The Afternoon?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I keep harping on this: the sharp-suited ticket-clipping fraternity are trying to convince the masses that the recent set of ludicrous fiscal and monetary missteps by the US and other governments are going to work... in other words, that government is going to save the day.

One thing that ought to be borne in mind: government has never ever ever ever ever 'saved the day.' 

Not ever. 

Not once. 

Never, no-how.

Point to FDR and his much-touted 'New Deal' - I dare you. If you do so, you are revealing yourself to be an ignoramus.

The "FDR saved America' story is like half of US political history... it's fiction - along with "Lusitania was not carrying weapons", "The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour was a complete surprise", "The USS Maddox was attacked by torpedo boats in the Gulf of Tonkin", "Lee Harvey Oswa;d was the guy", "Sirhan Sirhan - wow... another lone nut" and "The World Trade Centre was carried out by 19 Saudis with box-cutters".

For all the money that was poured down the throats of the US government in FDR's first two terms, for all the seizure of gold, for all the interventionism and 'labour market programs'... they achieved nothing palpable. The US economy was still moribund when they entered WWII.

Sure, economic activity rose during the war, but as a direct result of forced real wage cuts and the move towards a command economy. That sort of thing can get you a quick burst of growth if you're already suffering from a slack labour market - but unless workers are prepared to accept peacetime rationing, it won't work for long enough.

So if you want to go further down the road of Socialism (with a capital S this time - as in the genuine Leninist method), then you follow Hankie and Bernanke's prescriptions and wind up mired in a low-productivity police state where urban decay and declining living standards are no longer the stuff you experience during recessions - but are part of the permanent economic landscape (despite government assertions to the contrary).

After all, Soviet citizens were always being told that the system was furnishing ever-greater output... yet the quotidian experience was queueing for a loaf of bread.

But where was I? Oh yeah... this idea that all the 'stimulus' (which is really 'theft from future activity') will save us all.

Put me down in the 'No' camp, dearest Reader... we will see who is right at the end of 2009. We will see asset prices at 1992 levels.
Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose strongly, registering a gain of 39.2 points (1.12%), finishing at 3554.2 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3580.4 at 10:04 am, while the low for the day was 3511.1 - set at 1:48 pm Sydney time. Thereafter, everybody decided that 3500 on the All ords was sacrosanct and so the market got bought into the close.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 697.9m units, 30.7% below its 10-day average of 1.01bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 871 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 431 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 348m units; there were 258 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 247.8m shares.

Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 248 rose while 136 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 251.73m shares traded in gainers while 220.06m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - managed a solid gain, adding 38.9 points (1.09%), closing out the session at 3621.1 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3554.20 39.20 (1.1%)
ASX 20 2169.00 20.60 (1.0%)
ASX 50 3660.60 40.80 (1.1%)
ASX 100 2989.50 31.60 (1.1%)
ASX 200 3621.10 38.90 (1.1%)
ASX 300 3603.40 39.20 (1.1%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3320.50 20.30 (0.6%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1647.10 24.60 (1.5%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - advanced by under a percent, adding 20.6 points (0.96%), closing out the session at 2169 points.

Among the 20 big guns, the outcome favoured the upside, but only just - the 11 advancing stocks just triumphed over the losers. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 58.92m units; 11 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 33.1m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 22.91m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$1.87 (5.68%) to $34.77 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.37 (4.71%) to $8.22 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.18 (4.68%) to $4.03 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$1.03 (3.79%) to $28.18 on volume of 5.8 million shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.76 (3.78%) to $20.87 on volume of 3.2 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.13 (2.36%) to $5.37 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.53 (2.07%) to $25.06 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$0.49 (1.72%) to $28.01 on volume of 595.6 thousand shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.2 (1.49%) to $13.20 on volume of 3.6 million shares; and
  • CSL (CSL), -$0.26 (0.78%) to $33.13 on volume of 1.4 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO)  performed solidly, in moving up 24.6 points (1.52%), closing out the session at 1647.1 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 115 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 60 closed lower for the session.

The 210 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 194.28m units: volume in the 115 gainers totalling 102.53m shares, with trade totalling 59.69m units in the index's 60 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.06 (31.43%) to $0.23 on volume of 8.7 million shares;
  • Eastern Star Gas (ESG), +$0.13 (22.12%) to $0.69 on volume of 4.1 million shares;
  • Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), +$0.03 (20.69%) to $0.18 on volume of 4.9 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Communities Group (BBC), +$0.03 (19.23%) to $0.16 on volume of 159.1 thousand shares; and
  • Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.01 (18.42%) to $0.05 on volume of 7.6 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Albidon (ALB), -$0.02 (16%) to $0.11 on volume of 650 thousand shares;
  • Mintails (MLI), -$0 (14.29%) to $0.02 on volume of 8.9 million shares;
  • Rivercity Motorway Group (RCY), -$0.02 (8.33%) to $0.17 on volume of 540.8 thousand shares;
  • Timbercorp (TIM), -$0.01 (8%) to $0.12 on volume of 2.1 million shares; and
  • Specialty Fashion Group (SFH), -$0.02 (7.55%) to $0.25 on volume of 59.9 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3554.2 39.2 1.12 511.5m
XFL ASX 50 3660.6 40.8 1.13 151.4m
XJO ASX 200 3621.1 38.9 1.09 447.4m
XKO ASX 300 3603.4 39.2 1.1 491.8m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3320.5 20.3 0.62 154.6m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1647.1 24.6 1.52 185.7m
XTL ASX 20 2169 20.6 0.96 56.3m
XTO ASX 100 2989.5 31.6 1.07 306m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 11 66 128 248 115 431
Declines 8 32 65 136 60 258
Advancing Volume 33.1m 155.5m 227.7m 251.7m 102.5m 348m
Declining Volume 22.9m 166.7m 198.4m 220.1m 59.7m 247.8m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 7 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 4 lost ground.

The best performing index was Energy (XEJ), which added 304.1 points (2.58%) to 12072.4 points. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 19.09m units; 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10.41m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 5.59m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Arrow Energy (AOE), +$0.27 (12.68%) to $2.40 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
  • Gloucester Coal (GCL), +$0.27 (9.54%) to $3.10 on volume of 211.9 thousand shares;
  • Beach Petroleum (BPT), +$0.06 (6.36%) to $0.92 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.77 (6.14%) to $13.32 on volume of 544.5 thousand shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$1.87 (5.68%) to $34.77 on volume of 1.1 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which gained 69.3 points (1.82%) to 3882.2 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 52.36m units; 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 42.99m shares, while the 11 decliners had volume traded totalling 5.48m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • HFA Holdings (HFA), +$0.01 (10.2%) to $0.05 on volume of 19.5 million shares;
  • Australian Wealth Mgt (AUW), +$0.05 (4.89%) to $0.97 on volume of 758.2 thousand shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.37 (4.71%) to $8.22 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), +$0.08 (4.52%) to $1.74 on volume of 251.1 thousand shares; and
  • AXA Asia Pacific Holdings (AXA), +$0.19 (4.22%) to $4.69 on volume of 694.2 thousand shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Industrials (XNJ), which climbed 50.9 points (1.61%) to 3214.1 points. The 32 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 36.52m units; 24 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 31.22m shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 2.85m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Alesco Corporation (ALS), +$0.22 (9.24%) to $2.60 on volume of 131.1 thousand shares;
  • NRW Holdings (NWH), +$0.02 (8.57%) to $0.19 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), +$0.09 (5.67%) to $1.59 on volume of 4.2 million shares;
  • CSR (CSR), +$0.10 (5.48%) to $1.83 on volume of 3.9 million shares; and
  • Transpacific Industries (TPI), +$0.14 (4.68%) to $3.13 on volume of 256.5 thousand shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Information Technology (XIJ), which dipped 7.9 points (1.83%) to 424.9 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 0.85m units; The sole declining stock traded 0.74m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.12m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.19 (2.47%) to $7.50 on volume of 737.4 thousand shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 6 points (0.65%) to 911 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 187.17m units; The 9 decliners had volume traded totalling 120.5m units, and 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 52.25m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.04 (12.12%) to $0.29 on volume of 48.6 million shares;
  • ING Industrial Fund (IIF), -$0.01 (6.45%) to $0.15 on volume of 9.8 million shares;
  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.01 (4.65%) to $0.21 on volume of 13.6 million shares;
  • Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP), -$0.05 (2.83%) to $1.72 on volume of 215.7 thousand shares; and
  • Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.01 (2.78%) to $0.18 on volume of 2.9 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 42.4 points (0.51%) to 8325 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 4.82m units; The 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.83m units, and 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 0.99m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), -$0.03 (2.83%) to $1.03 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
  • Healthscope (HSP), -$0.06 (1.43%) to $4.14 on volume of 212.9 thousand shares;
  • Ansell (ANN), -$0.14 (1.16%) to $11.90 on volume of 476.9 thousand shares;
  • Cochlear (COH), -$0.54 (0.99%) to $53.80 on volume of 85 thousand shares; and
  • Primary Health Care (PRY), -$0.04 (0.85%) to $4.66 on volume of 275.3 thousand shares.
Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XEJ Energy 12072.4 304.1 2.58 19m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3882.2 69.3 1.82 52m
XNJ Industrials 3214.1 50.9 1.61 37m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1160.6 13.3 1.16 16m
XMJ Materials 8305.4 94.1 1.15 91m
XUJ Utilities 4275.8 40 0.94 23m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6057.1 8.7 0.14 14m
XTJ Telecommunications 1255.8 -5.9 -0.47 13m
XHJ Healthcare 8325 -42.4 -0.51 5m
XPJ Property Trusts 911 -6 -0.65 187m
XIJ Information Technology 424.9 -7.9 -1.83 1m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MOF Macquarie Office Trust 0.29 -0.04 -12.12 48.6m
GPT GPT Group 0.89 -0.03 -2.75 23m
HFA HFA Holdings 0.05 0.01 10.2 19.5m
GMG Goodman Group 0.72 0.02 2.86 17.8m
DXS Dexus Property Group 0.79 -0.02 -1.87 14.7m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
NFK Norfolk Group 0.25 0.06 31.58 719.5k
LYC Lynas Corporation 0.23 0.06 31.43 8.7m
PRU Perseus Mining 0.58 0.13 28.89 753.1k
ALD Allied Gold 0.43 0.09 25 192.9k
ESG Eastern Star Gas 0.69 0.13 22.12 4.1m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ALB Albidon 0.11 -0.02 -16 650k
MLI Mintails 0.02 0.00 -14.29 8.9m
TGP Trafalgar Corporate Group 0.43 -0.07 -13.13 20.5k
DKN Deakin Financial SVS Grp Ltd. 0.48 -0.07 -12.73 10.7k
MOF Macquarie Office Trust 0.29 -0.04 -12.12 48.6m