Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

USRant: Ritalin-Trading...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

This market is behaving in a bizarre fashion. Yesterday we had breadth and internals that would have smelt like a bottom under normal circumstances (what does a bottom smell like under normal circumstances? Eeeeeewww). Today, the internals and breadth scream 'mania'.

Perhaps the Special Bus has been stopping to pick up some schizophrenics on its way to Wall Street each day... or maybe traders are starting to react badly to the Prozac they had to take to stave off depression in October and November. Maybe the traderbots have developed sentience and decided to bankrupt us all to save the whales.

I dunno, but frankly the entire 'investing' community in the US is behaving as if it thinks this is just a video game and that any day now, the government is going to give out a cheat code to the Super Secret Prize Level.  Sure... and the crack whore's dealer is really a nice guy who is going to get her into the movies.

Anyhow... lately it's been like a teen who is off his Ritalin: up days are mindlessly optimistic, and down days are morbidly pessimistic. 

I have written previously that the markets behave from time to time like a fly that has been sprayed with fly-spray (well, you wouldn't spray a fly with shaving cream, now would you). Bzzzzt. Bzzzzt Bzt Bzt Bzzt Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzt. Bzt Bzt Bzt Bzzt Bzzt. 

Usually that doesn't end well for the fly 

(Note: I do not support the use of fly spray, folks - it is perhaps the cruelest way to kill a thing. If we have to kill things by making them spasm themselves to death, let it be politicians).

Economic News

Zilch


Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) gained 270 points (3.31%) to 8419.09 points. After an early surge, the market fell back to be almost unchanged with 90 minutes left in the session; almost half of the closing change was gained in the last five minbutes of the session.  

Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 1.42bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 14 to one, with 28 advancers to 2 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 1.39bn to 25.99m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were once again the biggest basket-cases -

  • General Electric (GE) +2.11 (13.6%) to $17.61 on volume of 219.01m shares;
  • AIG (AIG) +0.22 (13.3%) to $1.87 on volume of 43.87m shares;
  • Citigroup (C) +0.77 (11.9%) to $7.22 on volume of 326.71m shares;
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.52 (11.8%) to $14.37 on volume of 129.39m shares; and
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.41 (9.2%) to $28.53 on volume of 80.99m shares.

The S&P500 index (SPX) advanced 32.6 points (3.99%) to 848.81 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 4.9bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 9.8 to one, with 440 advancers to 45 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 4.34bn to 491.02m shares. Again - breadth which is reminiscent of a top... it is clear that the entire US market has become a video game run by trading bots.

The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • ProLogis (PLD) +0.67 (26.5%) to $3.2 on volume of 22.18m shares;
  • Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) +0.55 (26.1%) to $2.66 on volume of 38.73m shares;
  • CIT Group (CIT) +0.6 (21.1%) to $3.45 on volume of 9.84m shares;
  • XL Capital (XL) +0.8 (20.3%) to $4.74 on volume of 7.62m shares; and
  • Equity Residential (EQR) +4.82 (20.2%) to $28.67 on volume of 11.67m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced +51.73 points (3.7%) to 1449.80 points while the Nasdaq100 gained +38.84 points (3.56%) to 1130.00 points.

Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 968.03m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 9.9 to one, with 89 advancers to 9 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 871.64m to 96.39m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Sun Microsystems (JAVA) +0.42 (14.8%) to $3.25 on volume of 11.47m shares;
  • Sears Holdings (SHLD) +4.25 (13.3%) to $36.09 on volume of 1.96m shares;
  • Foster Wheeler (FWLT) +2.51 (12.3%) to $22.86 on volume of 8.87m shares;
  • Virgin Media (VMED) +0.41 (11.1%) to $4.12 on volume of 4.41m shares; and
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) +3.71 (11%) to $37.58 on volume of 1.21m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 5.58 points (8.14%) to 62.93 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index fell 3.93 points (5.92%) to 62.42 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3909 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 2.61bn shares. A total of 2844 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 1.55bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 990 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 1.02bn shares. 22 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 137 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2990 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.06bn shares. A total of 2038 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.75bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 830 losers, and total declining volume was 290m shares. 4 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 132 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8419.09 +270.00 3.31%
S&P500 Index 848.81 +32.60 3.99%
Nasdaq Composite 1449.80 +51.73 3.7%
Nasdaq100 1130.00 +38.84 3.56%
CBOE Volatility Index 62.93 -5.58 -8.14%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 62.42 -3.93 -5.92%

Dow Darlings

  • General Electric (GE) +2.11 (13.6%) to $17.61 on volume of 219m units
  • Citigroup (C) +0.77 (11.9%) to $7.22 on volume of 326.7m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.52 (11.8%) to $14.37 on volume of 129.4m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.41 (9.2%) to $28.53 on volume of 81m units
  • Merck (MRK) +1.83 (7.4%) to $26.68 on volume of 15.5m units

Dow Duds:

  • 3M Co (MMM) -1.49 (2.4%) to $60.86 on volume of 11.8m units
  • Coca-Cola (KO) -0.4 (0.9%) to $43.93 on volume of 14.2m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Citigroup (C) +0.77 (11.9%) to $7.22 on volume of 326.7m units
  • General Electric (GE) +2.11 (13.6%) to $17.61 on volume of 219m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.52 (11.8%) to $14.37 on volume of 129.4m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.41 (9.2%) to $28.53 on volume of 81m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.54 (2.9%) to $19.15 on volume of 79.4m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures were modestly stronger -

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 779.3 4.7 0.61
Silver 9.535 0.185 1.98
Palladium 173 -1.25 -0.72
Platinum 810.8 0.9 0.11

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) rose 5.95 points (6.69%) to 94.91 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 118.59m shares. All 16 stocks in the index rose The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Harmony Gold (HMY) +0.92 (12.7%) to $8.17 on volume of 2.37m shares;
  • Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) +0.74 (10.9%) to $7.5 on volume of 8.99m shares;
  • Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +0.05 (9.8%) to $0.56 on volume of 7.94m shares;
  • Kinroos Gold (KGC) +1.25 (9.2%) to $14.86 on volume of 11.25m shares; and
  • AngloGold Ashanti (AU) +1.76 (9%) to $21.33 on volume of 3.07m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures continued weak - however energy stocks had a bit of a rally.

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 47.54 -1.74 -3.53
Heating Oil 1.598 -0.0171 -1.06
Natural Gas 6.449 -0.155 -2.35
Gasoline RBOB 1.066 -0.0452 -4.07
Ethanol 1.57 -0.026 -1.63

The Oil Services index (OSX) advanced 1.73 points (1.49%) to 117.55 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 119.49m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 4 to one, with 12 advancers to 3 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 91.09m to 28.4m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Rowan Co (RDC) +0.91 (6.5%) to $14.9 on volume of 3.95m shares;
  • Global Industries (GLBL) +0.16 (6.5%) to $2.62 on volume of 1.46m shares;
  • Oceaneering International (OII) +1.12 (5%) to $23.34 on volume of 1.05m shares;
  • Schlumberger (SLB) +1.84 (4.4%) to $43.92 on volume of 14.52m shares; and
  • Noble Corp (NE) +0.84 (3.8%) to $23.12 on volume of 7.26m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures were mixed - the Australian dollar held up well considering the full 100 basis point cut in official rates.

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 86.74 -0.16 -0.18
Euro FX 1.2696 0.0028 0.22
Swiss Franc 0.8293 -0.0028 -0.34
Australian Dollar 0.6385 -0.0062 -0.96
Canadian Dollar 0.7974 -0.01 -1.24
Japanese Yen 1.0732 0.0012 0.11
New Zealand Dollar 0.5286 -0.0049 -0.92

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 2.7%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) +2.11 (13.61%) to $17.61 on volume of 219.02m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +0.77 (11.94%) to $7.22 on volume of 326.72m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.44 (0.83%) to $53.45 on volume of 24.22m units.
  • IBM (IBM) +2.94 (3.82%) to $79.84 on volume of 9.27m units.
  • Intel (INTC) +0.72 (5.73%) to $13.28 on volume of 63.72m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.36 (2.41%) to $15.32 on volume of 65.48m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +9.12 (3.43%) to $275.11 on volume of 5.79m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.02 (2.38%) to $0.82 on volume of 84.98m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.14 (15.38%) to $0.77 on volume of 54.2m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) added 3.1 points (7.84%) to 42.63 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 828.19m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 10.5 to one, with 21 advancers to 2 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 816.85m to 11.34m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Wachovia (WB) +0.69 (16%) to $4.99 on volume of 47.71m shares;
  • Citigroup Inc (C) +0.77 (11.9%) to $7.22 on volume of 326.71m shares;
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.52 (11.8%) to $14.37 on volume of 129.39m shares;
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) +2.48 (10.6%) to $25.89 on volume of 79.97m shares; and
  • Keycorp (KEY) +0.7 (9.7%) to $7.95 on volume of 8.71m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) advanced 2.45 points (1.34%) to 185.69 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 225.29m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 2.6 to one, with 13 advancers to 5 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 162.17m to 63.12m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Intel (INTC) +0.72 (5.7%) to $13.28 on volume of 63.72m shares;
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) +0.63 (4.5%) to $14.64 on volume of 17.49m shares;
  • Teradyne (TER) +0.14 (4.3%) to $3.43 on volume of 2.65m shares;
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.17 (2.8%) to $6.27 on volume of 2.07m shares; and
  • Altera (ALTR) +0.38 (2.7%) to $14.4 on volume of 6.82m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) advanced 11.28 points (4.92%) to 240.5 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 257m shares. All index components rose. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Gencorp (GY) +0.37 (15.5%) to $2.76 on volume of 0.36m shares;
  • General Electric (GE) +2.11 (13.6%) to $17.61 on volume of 219.01m shares;
  • ITT Corporation (ITT) +2.61 (7%) to $39.85 on volume of 2.28m shares;
  • FLIRr Systems (FLIR) +2 (7%) to $30.6 on volume of 2.45m shares; and
  • Teledyne Tech (TDY) +2.52 (6.9%) to $38.8 on volume of 0.36m shares.