Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

NonRant: A Short Note...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

You would be forgive n for assuming that the absence of Rants latterly, was a continuation of my hissy-fit on behalf of the oppressed Palestinian people. Actually the reason has been far less noble; I've been beavering away on changes to the MarketMentat Model Portfolios (for the subscription site).

{Plus, I have had diabolical connectivity issues... TCPIP Event 4202 every three minutes, chucking me off the interwebs... gah.}

The way I see it, the next two weeks are going to surprise to the downside, but then there will be a post-Inauguration bounce which might be constructive for as long as three months. I am reasonably sure that the bounce will be a relatively slow-motion affair, but - after a 'tease break' below the November lows, the 3-month returns should be of the order of 30% (and more with the leveraged versions of the portfolios).

As such, we are going to want to take hedges off the Model Portfolios just prior to the inauguration, but we are also going to take the next little bit of time to change the sector composition of the portfolios as well.

I'm also beavering away on a 'straight-through' content management system for Mav and Ronin - both have excellent sources, including some very colourful links in the 'Fifth Estate' crowd in WA. So once that's done, the front page of the subscription site will get a makeover - giving Mav and Ronin the capacity to sticky-tape their output straight into the page.

That aside, I've also taken a hammer to the content side of the OzRant and USRant templates in a bid to split off a more 'commercial' version for industry distribution (you would be surprised at the readership of our none-too-humble Rants, dearest Reader). With the financial services industry undergoing considerable consolidation, you might even see writing styles you recognise, appearing on the letterhead of sell-side shops.

After that, we will be trying to encourage some middle-sized brokerages to sack their analysts and retransmit MarketMentat wisdom (under white-labelling); by March (at the latest) brokerage clients are going to be best served by analysis that positions them on the short side.

Given that a few of us are "146 compliant", we might even go the whole hog and get an AFSL (although I hate the idea of obeying any rule promulgated by a government-appointed hack).

2009 is going to be the Year of the Rant (as if 2008 wasn't good enough - although we are all still smarting from carrying 30-yr bond shorts... they're almost in profit now).