Ask yourself, dearest reader: where else did you read that the November lows would be revisited, even as all the politicians were telling us that they had saved us with their massive wastes of tax money?
As I said at the time (in fact ,slightly before the bounce low), I was not prepared to unhedge the Model Portfolios on the subscriber site because any bounce - while eminently foreseeable, nd perhaps large enough to be tradeable - was not going to last.
We will take the hedges off (and rebalance the portfolios) reasonably soon, but for now they remain 100% hedged (as they have been since XAO was above 5800)
And now another thing...
As you know, dearest reader, I am a contrarian. I believe in that well-worn adage about a good investor walking a lonely road... and it's true for traders as well.
Take today in the SPI: this morning just after the open, with the SPI down over 80 points, the market oversold, the Ords opening weak... one of those 'nuffnuff cliff-dives' of which I have written many times.
Not many people would be silly enough to stand in front of that particular train: I did, buying SPI at 3475 for an intraday scalp.
An hour or so later, I bought again... at 3448, making my average 3461.50.
By lunchtime Strayan time, the 2-unit holding was underwater about 2 grand, but your beloved GT did not exhibit so much as a bead of sweat on the brow. In fact I was a tad sleepy.
When the Ords breached 3400, your beloved GT was very tempted to add a third SPI contract, but instead I went and got a bit of kip: the 'tease break' was as obvious as the black roots on an American 'blonde'.
And I closed the 2-lot trade (recall it was only to be an intraday scalp) 3 minutes before the SPI close, and then fumed.
I wasn't fuming because of a mismanaged trade - every single element of the trade was done in a manner that conformed to a trading strategy.
The fuming resulted from two things: first, I had attempted to exit the first lot with a $200 gain about five minutes after the first entry, but had missed a fill. That is what led to a scurry to formulate a second-contract strategy.
The second source of fuming was at the other end of the session: when trying to close out the two-lot, I inadvertently exited 'Sell at market' instead of 'Sell 3468 Limit'; so I ended up closing out at 3463 and gaining a lousy $78 instead of closing at 3468 (which traded eight seconds later) and pocketing an extra $250.
In other words: if I had simply accepted a lower exit on that first lot, I could have gotten a lot more sleep.
Anyway - the only reason I mention this is that you will often have heard me say that those who trade in the direction of the first big break will get torched 6 times out of 7.
Well, today was the 7th... where nuffnuff shorts made hay and the contrarians got basted (except for superior trade managers).
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - slid pretty savagely, posting a loss of 106 points (3%), finishing at 3425 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3464.6 at the open, while the low for the day was 3395.1 - set at 1:56 pm Sydney time (the aforementioned 'tease break').
Total volume traded on the ASX was 902.6m units, 20.6% below its 10-day average of 1.14bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1005 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 187 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 147.5m units; there were 616 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 625.1m shares.
Of the 487 All Ordinaries components, 72 rose while 326 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 4.2:1, with 116.95m shares traded in gainers while 496.69m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - dipped rather savagely, losing 112.7 points (3.14%), closing out the session at 3476.6 points.
|All Ordinaries||3425.00||-106.00 (3.0%)|
|ASX 20||2065.70||-73.00 (3.4%)|
|ASX 50||3500.30||-116.90 (3.2%)|
|ASX 100||2862.70||-92.90 (3.1%)|
|ASX 200||3476.60||-112.70 (3.1%)|
|ASX 300||3464.10||-111.50 (3.1%)|
|ASX Mid-Cap 50||3213.70||-83.00 (2.5%)|
|ASX Small Ordinaries||1661.70||-47.50 (2.8%)|
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 73 points (3.41%), closing out the session at 2065.7 points.
Among the 20 big guns, only one component - Stockland (SGP) - kept its head off the chopping block.SGP managed to add $0.09 (2.57%) to close at $3.59 and traded 7.85m shares in the process. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 146.62m units; the lone rising index component had volume amounting to 7.85m shares, while the 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 85.02m units.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Rio Tinto (RIO), -$2.56 (6.31%) to $37.99 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
- National Australia Bank (NAB), -$1.05 (5.4%) to $18.39 on volume of 6.3 million shares;
- Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.8 (5.27%) to $14.38 on volume of 4.7 million shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.73 (5.06%) to $13.70 on volume of 9.5 million shares; and
- BHP Billiton (BHP), -$1.43 (4.71%) to $28.95 on volume of 12.4 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) also copped a bit of a hiding, sliding 47.5 points (2.78%), closing out the session at 1661.7 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 29 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 158 closed lower for the session.The 210 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 220.43m units: volume in the 29 gainers totalling 41.85m shares, with trade totalling 144.76m units in the index's 158 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Industrea (IDL), +$0.02 (13.04%) to $0.13 on volume of 12 million shares;
- ING Real Estate Community Living Group (ILF), +$0.01 (8.93%) to $0.06 on volume of 36 thousand shares;
- Great Southern (GTP), +$0.02 (8.11%) to $0.20 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
- Biota Holdings (BTA), +$0.02 (4.88%) to $0.43 on volume of 260.4 thousand shares; and
- Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.02 (4.84%) to $0.33 on volume of 2.8 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Record Realty (RRT), -$0 (16.67%) to $0.01 on volume of 197.9 thousand shares;
- Karoon Gas Australia (KAR), -$0.4 (13.33%) to $2.60 on volume of 515.9 thousand shares;
- Albidon (ALB), -$0.02 (11.11%) to $0.16 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
- Aquarius Platinum (AQP), -$0.38 (10.53%) to $3.23 on volume of 440.8 thousand shares; and
- Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.01 (10.48%) to $0.09 on volume of 8.8 million shares.
|XMD||ASX Mid-Cap 50||3213.7||-83||-2.52||193.6m|
|XSO||ASX Small Ordinaries||1661.7||-47.5||-2.78||211.1m|
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, today's market action was dominated by sectoral declines - only one sector managed a gain for the day.
The only index to post a gain was Telecommunications (XTJ), which added 0.6 points (0.05%) to 1205.1 points. This index only contains 3 stocks; they traded a total of 75.31m units today. The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 20.73m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 0.84m units. The gainer within the index was
- Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.02 (0.77%) to $1.96 on volume of 20.7 million shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Energy (XEJ), which dipped 520.6 points (4.3%) to 11584.8 points. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 37.84m units; The 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 37.09m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.75m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Karoon Gas Australia (KAR), -$0.4 (13.33%) to $2.60 on volume of 515.9 thousand shares;
- Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), -$0.17 (8.75%) to $1.72 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
- Aquila Resources (AQA), -$0.24 (7.82%) to $2.83 on volume of 97.3 thousand shares;
- Felix Resources (FLX), -$0.65 (7.68%) to $7.81 on volume of 267.3 thousand shares; and
- ROC Oil Company (ROC), -$0.04 (7.41%) to $0.50 on volume of 2.3 million shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Materials (XMJ), which slid 348.3 points (4.01%) to 8342.6 points. The 46 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 136.02m units; The 36 decliners had volume traded totalling 90.83m units, and 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 26.99m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Aquarius Platinum (AQP), -$0.38 (10.53%) to $3.23 on volume of 440.8 thousand shares;
- Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), -$0.19 (9.2%) to $1.83 on volume of 7.7 million shares;
- Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), -$0.11 (8.46%) to $1.19 on volume of 157.1 thousand shares;
- Paperlinx (PPX), -$0.05 (8.04%) to $0.52 on volume of 3.8 million shares; and
- Gindalbie Metals Ltd (GBG), -$0.05 (7.03%) to $0.60 on volume of 897.2 thousand shares.
Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which slid 148.5 points (3.96%) to 3602.9 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 90.69m units; The 23 decliners had volume traded totalling 55.57m units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 6.95m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- HFA Holdings (HFA), -$0.01 (8.7%) to $0.11 on volume of 3.1 million shares;
- Babcock And Brown Capital (BCM), -$0.09 (6.54%) to $1.22 on volume of 408.5 thousand shares;
- Henderson Group PLC (HGG), -$0.08 (5.93%) to $1.27 on volume of 316.1 thousand shares;
- Bank Of Queensland. (BOQ), -$0.49 (5.45%) to $8.50 on volume of 374.9 thousand shares; and
- National Australia Bank (NAB), -$1.05 (5.4%) to $18.39 on volume of 6.3 million shares.
|XXJ||Financials ex Property Trusts||3602.9||-148.5||-3.96||91m|
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
|BNB||Babcock & Brown||0.33||0.00||0||28.2m|
|TEL||Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand||1.96||0.02||0.77||20.7m|
All Ords Percentage Gainers
|BFG||Bell Financial Group||0.50||0.05||11.11||2k|
|MPF||Multiplex Acumen Property Fund||0.10||0.01||10.11||169.8k|
All Ords Percentage Losers
|MAFCA||Multiplex Prime Property Fund||0.01||0.00||-23.53||973k|
|NOD||Nomad Building Solutions||0.18||-0.04||-16.67||1.6m|
|KAR||Karoon Gas Australia||2.60||-0.40||-13.33||515.9k|