Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

USRant: Stonking Twin Deficits? Who Cares?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Some of you, no doubt, think that my constant railing  against politicians and all their evil works, is just a bit 'extreme'. Perhaps our beloved GT is going  tad over the top, you think. Perhaps the pols aren't really as bad as GT paints them to be.

O tempora, o mores!

We see it every day - writ large. The failure of the west to censure the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza ghetto by racist psychopaths who use the Warsaw ghetto to claim eternal victimhood; the fact that nobody is ever accountable for the failures of government during crises and natural disasters... when it has declared that it has sole responsibility.

But occasionally it is more subtle. Two examples suffice, both recent.

The first example: when asked if he would advocate pursuing members of the Bush Administration who were responsible for direct ordering of torture, president-elect Obama waved it off by asserting the we 'must move forward'.

If I am ever hauled before the beak for murdering someone, I plan to use that defence. "Look, slashes were made, blood was spilt, people died... but let's not dwell on the past, yer-onna. I'm highly unlikely to kill that bloke again, and any future victims will, of course, be direct threats to my personal security".

The second example is a Pommie example, and shows - as if further evidence was required - the tendency of politicians to want to hide or cover up any inconvenient truths (har har, Gore... your scam got busted by the Russkies) .

It concerns the weekly publication of market activities by the Bank of England. When the Peel government gave a monopoly on money-printing to the Bank of England (in 1844), the Bank was required by law to report weekly their activities.

Not any more - that is in the process of being repealed. So the Old Trollop of Threadneedle Street can now print money to its heart's content without being discovered. In other words, they plan to hyperinflate, and they plan to do it without anybody being able to point to data that proves it's underway.

Economic News

Trade deficit (-$40.4 billion) better than expected, government deficit (-$83.6 billion) about in line with expectations.

The forecast deficit for 2009 is now 1.2 trillion dollars, and that is before any Obama 'stimulus' package. I can remember when then-Australian Treasurer declared that a trade deficit of 6% of GDP (at the time) risked a descent to 'banana republic' standards: the US deficit will be 7%, and the US government deficit will be over 8%.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 25.41 points (0.3%) to 8448.56 points. The index high for the day was 8522.08, while the low was 8376.88. this represents one close below a fairly important level (8470); another close below that level should see a new 'impulse' downwards.

Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 1.27bn shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 1.1 to one, with 16 decliners to 14 advancers; however advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 644.18m shares to 625.45m. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Bank Of America (BAC) -0.78 (6.8%) to $10.65 on volume of 239.93m shares;
  • General Electric (GE) -0.89 (5.6%) to $14.94 on volume of 127.91m shares;
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.51 (5.1%) to $9.55 on volume of 44.69m shares;
  • General Motors (GM) -0.13 (3.1%) to $4.02 on volume of 14.08m shares; and
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) -1.15 (3.1%) to $35.83 on volume of 19.53m shares.

The S&P500 index (SPX) gained 1.53 points (0.18%) to 871.79 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 4.13bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.1 to one, with 247 advancers to 227 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 2.25bn to 1.8bn shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Developers Diversified Rlty (DDR) +0.95 (15.8%) to $6.97 on volume of 7.66m shares;
  • Lincoln National (LNC) +2.56 (14.6%) to $20.05 on volume of 6.99m shares;
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) +2.93 (8.6%) to $37.08 on volume of 7.91m shares;
  • Varian Medical Systems (VAR) +2.9 (8.5%) to $36.96 on volume of 5.21m shares; and
  • CB Richard Ellis Group (CBG) +0.31 (7.4%) to $4.52 on volume of 4.58m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 7.67 points (0.5%) to 1546.46 points. while the Nasdaq100 index (NDX) added 1.52 points (0.13%) to 1202.65 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 885.46m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.1 to one, with 51 advancers to 47 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 467.82m to 417.64m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Flextronics International (FLEX) +0.21 (7.5%) to $3 on volume of 10.55m shares;
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) +1.37 (7%) to $21.08 on volume of 10.29m shares;
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) +0.71 (6.4%) to $11.79 on volume of 6.18m shares;
  • Infosys Technologies (INFY) +1.52 (5.9%) to $27.4 on volume of 5.24m shares; and
  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) +0.64 (5.8%) to $11.64 on volume of 2.81m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index fell 2.57 points (5.61%) to 43.27 points. and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index dipped 1.35 points (3.04%) to 43.11 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3875 issues traded today on the NYSE; 1947 stocks posted gains for the day, and there were 1829 losers. 9 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 66 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2916 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.96bn shares. A total of 1538 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.15bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1242 losers, and total declining volume was 0.79bn shares. 3 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 52 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8448.56 -25.41 -0.3%
S&P500 Index 871.79 +1.53 0.18%
Nasdaq Composite 1546.46 +7.67 0.5%
Nasdaq100 1202.65 +1.52 0.13%
CBOE Volatility Index 43.27 -2.57 -5.61%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 43.11 -1.35 -3.04%

Dow Darlings

  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +1.44 (5.8%) to $26.35 on volume of 72.4m units
  • Citigroup (C) +0.30 (5.4%) to $5.90 on volume of 271.8m units
  • Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +1.38 (1.8%) to $77.92 on volume of 45.9m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.35 (1.8%) to $19.82 on volume of 65.7m units
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.73 (1.4%) to $52.12 on volume of 24.9m units

Dow Duds:

  • Bank Of America (BAC) -0.78 (6.8%) to $10.65 on volume of 240.6m units
  • General Electric (GE) -0.89 (5.6%) to $14.94 on volume of 128.9m units
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.51 (5.1%) to $9.55 on volume of 44.8m units
  • General Motors (GM) -0.13 (3.1%) to $4.02 on volume of 14.1m units
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) -1.15 (3.1%) to $35.83 on volume of 19.8m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Citigroup (C) +0.30(5.4%) to $5.90 on volume of 271.8m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) -0.78 (6.8%) to $10.65 on volume of 240.6m units
  • General Electric (GE) -0.89 (5.6%) to $14.94 on volume of 128.9m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +1.44 (5.8%) to $26.35 on volume of 72.4m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.35 (1.8%) to $19.82 on volume of 65.7m units
Precious Metals

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) gained 2.84 points (2.66%) to 109.76 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 126.05m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 7 to one, with 14 advancers to 2 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 114.56m to 11.49m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • RandGold Resources (GOLD) +2.59 (7%) to $39.35 on volume of 1.23m shares;
  • Barrick Gold (ABX) +1.58 (5.1%) to $32.72 on volume of 16.95m shares;
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +1.56 (3.4%) to $47.63 on volume of 4.17m shares;
  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.17 (3.1%) to $5.73 on volume of 7.37m shares; and
  • Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) +0.24 (2.9%) to $8.38 on volume of 7.75m shares.
Energy Complex

The Oil Services index (OSX) gained 4.02 points (3.28%) to 126.74 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 92.13m shares. Not a single stock declined within the index: the biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Oceaneering International (OII) +1.38 (4.8%) to $30.4 on volume of 0.76m shares;
  • Global Industries (GLBL) +0.15 (4.3%) to $3.62 on volume of 0.68m shares;
  • Baker Hughes (BHI) +1.34 (4.1%) to $33.89 on volume of 4.66m shares;
  • Tidewater (TDW) +1.58 (4.1%) to $40.04 on volume of 0.84m shares; and
  • Weatherford International (WFT) +0.43 (3.6%) to $12.25 on volume of 10.61m shares.
Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 1%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.89 (5.62%) to $14.94 on volume of 128.91m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +0.30 (5.36%) to $5.90 on volume of 271.83m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.73 (1.42%) to $52.12 on volume of 24.93m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -0.37 (0.43%) to $85.34 on volume of 7.62m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.12 (0.87%) to $13.67 on volume of 65.42m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.05 (0.3%) to $16.45 on volume of 51.88m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +1.63 (0.52%) to $314.32 on volume of 4.43m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.03 (4.23%) to $0.74 on volume of 10.32m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.03 (4.23%) to $0.74 on volume of 6.29m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) advanced 0.68 points (1.82%) to 38.1 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 782.89m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 3.2 to one, with 16 advancers to 5 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 501.54m to 281.35m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Keycorp (KEY) +0.43 (6.2%) to $7.4 on volume of 8.93m shares;
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +1.44 (5.8%) to $26.35 on volume of 71.93m shares;
  • Citigroup Inc (C) +0.3 (5.4%) to $5.9 on volume of 271.23m shares;
  • Zions Bancorp (ZION) +1.09 (5.2%) to $21.91 on volume of 2.67m shares; and
  • New M&I Corporation (MI) +0.51 (4.7%) to $11.3 on volume of 5.1m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) rose 1.7 points (0.81%) to 210.79 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 251.71m shares. Advancers and decliners were split evenly, 9 decliners to 9 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 155.63m to 96.08m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) +0.33 (4.5%) to $7.67 on volume of 15.81m shares;
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) +0.91 (4.2%) to $22.6 on volume of 9.45m shares;
  • Altera (ALTR) +0.41 (2.7%) to $15.41 on volume of 9.86m shares;
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) +0.19 (1.9%) to $10.19 on volume of 22.26m shares; and
  • Xilinx (XLNX) +0.28 (1.8%) to $16.23 on volume of 10.38m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) dipped 5.18 points (1.97%) to 258.13 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 163.44m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 2.2 to one, with 11 decliners to 5 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 157.84m to 5.6m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • General Electric (GE) -0.89 (5.6%) to $14.94 on volume of 127.91m shares;
  • Rockwell Collins (COL) -1.84 (4.7%) to $36.99 on volume of 1.97m shares;
  • General Dynamics (GD) -2.58 (4.5%) to $55.1 on volume of 4.11m shares;
  • Teledyne Tech (TDY) -1.44 (3.5%) to $39.65 on volume of 0.39m shares; and
  • United Technologies (UTX) -1.56 (3%) to $50.8 on volume of 6.88m shares.