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As the Poet Burns once wrote, the best laid plans gang aft agly. This (again, according to Herr Burns) happens to mice and men.
That's all well and good - but worse still is when you have best laid plans which have, for ages past, not ganged agly, and yet you get lured into dispensing with them on the basis of a bias and a little surge.
I am speaking, dear Reader, of yesterday's SPI. Your beloved GT behaved like an absolute nuffnuff amateur in this instrument this day; let me recount the ways.
First: the thing sagged at the open - down as low as 3387. My bias for the day was to buy weakness (as it has been all week).
So so far, all seems well and good.
BUT...
Then the thing charged skyward, and got back above 3400 in less than 5 minutes.
Hmmm', thunk I. (I think in bold-italics sometimes - not often, but every now and then).
As I say... the thought 'Hmmm' occurred to me.
Then - for some reason known only to Marduk, Ug-Shothoth, Cthulu and the other denizens of dark damp hells, I bought at market (3405). In other words, dear Reader, your beloved GT chased. He traded like a breakout nuffnuff.
Of course we all know what happened then: the reversal.
A lesser trader would have finished in the red for the session: I finagled myself a win, managing to augment the balance by a little over the "6 hunjie fiddie" mark after fees.
But frankly it was hard yakka - as it always is, when you trade like an absolute loser.
To put in in perspective: other units I traded for the day - all other entries and exits - were all 'method consistent'. That is they were done as you would expect a genius to do them. Counting just those trades, the gain for the day was a little over 9 hunjie - a decent day's gain. But the 3405 entry netted a loss of 9 SPI points, or $225 plus fees). Ignore the fact that the SPI finished well above 3400 by this morning: a bad entry does not deserve the 'latitude' necessary to get back to the black.
We all have bad days, dearest Reader; for me yesterday was by no means the least profitable (it was, after all, a moderately handsome win), but it was stressful, it required much more 'hands on' stuffing around than I like, and it was a case study in how not to trade.
The one thing that was on my side the whole time (and the reason why I never exited that first trade) is the saying 'Never short a dull market'.
Yesterday's SPI market was duller than dishwater, and yet every time it touched unchanged it would retreat 10, 15 SPI points in a minute and a half.
That made me think "This thing is going back above 3400" (this was after I thought "Hmmm")..
So why was my exit at 3396 and not above 3400? You ask.
Well, that's the thing about having to trade your way out of a bad entry: you end up itching to get out, and eyeing the exits.
The absolute worst thing about being stuck in a situation like that, is the 'tease' factor: wanting the bloody thing just to rally that one or two more points (for example once the market got back to unchanged - 3396 - and reversed what seems like fifteen times). When the German industrial numbers came out, I just took the exit and thanked Odin for intervening on my behalf.
I say Odin. but maybe it was Osiris or Apollo... one can never be sure with all these gods around.
One thing is sure - it wasn't Yahweh, because he apparently insists that supplicants set fire to a pile of offal and sprinkling blood around the place, before he will even look at an application for aid. That's because he is a sick prick. A sick, genocidal, uppity dickhead. Like most of his senior adherents throughout the ages.
Economic News
Sorry, but until next week I can't bring myself to care about government statistics (or those generated by lobbyists).
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) rose 106.41 points (1.34%) to 8063.07 points. Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 1.9bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 4 to one, with 24 advancers to 6 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 1.51bn to 395.77m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- General Motors (GM) +0.14 (5.1%) to $2.86 on volume of 9.41m shares;
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +2.14 (4.6%) to $48.56 on volume of 32.87m shares;
- American Express (AXP) +0.67 (4.1%) to $17.03 on volume of 26.88m shares;
- Caterpillar (CAT) +1.01 (3.3%) to $31.61 on volume of 17.5m shares; and
- Home Depot (HD) +0.67 (3.1%) to $22.4 on volume of 24.35m shares.
The S&P500 Index gained +13.62 points (1.64%) to 845.85 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 5.65bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 4.1 to one, with 383 advancers to 93 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 4.21bn to 1.34bn shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.35 (24.3%) to $1.79 on volume of 32.65m shares;
- Liz ClaiborneInc. (LIZ) +0.44 (20.4%) to $2.6 on volume of 2.65m shares;
- CIGNA Corp. (CI) +3.37 (18.7%) to $21.39 on volume of 12.73m shares;
- Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM) +2.56 (18.1%) to $16.73 on volume of 17.71m shares; and
- International Flav/Frag (IFF) +4.49 (16.1%) to $32.35 on volume of 3.85m shares.
The Nasdaq Composite gained +31.19 points (2.06%) to 1546.24 points. while the Nasdaq100 index (NDX) advanced 29.68 points (2.44%) to 1245.11 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 1.19bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 6.5 to one, with 84 advancers to 13 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 1.07bn to 121.72m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Akamai Technologies (AKAM) +2.56 (18.1%) to $16.73 on volume of 17.71m shares;
- Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) +0.0225 (15.8%) to $0.165 on volume of 155.99m shares;
- Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) +0.55 (15.1%) to $4.2 on volume of 7.01m shares;
- Sun Microsystems (JAVA) +0.51 (10.3%) to $5.48 on volume of 21.55m shares; and
- Juniper Networks (JNPR) +1.35 (9.2%) to $16 on volume of 31.7m shares.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index dropped 0.12 points (0.27%) to 43.73 points. and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index rose +0.48 points (1.12%) to 43.30 points..
Breadth and Internals
A total of 3856 issues traded today on the NYSE; 2432 stocks posted gains for the day, and there were 1306 losers. 9 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 151 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
On the Nasdaq 2885 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.51bn shares. A total of 1787 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 2.09bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 950 losers, and total declining volume was 0.4bn shares. 3 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 137 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 8063.07 | +106.41 | 1.34% |
| S&P500 Index | 845.85 | +13.62 | 1.64% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1546.24 | +31.19 | 2.06% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1245.11 | +29.68 | 2.44% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 43.73 | -0.12 | -0.27% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 43.30 | +0.48 | 1.12% |
Dow Darlings
- General Motors (GM) +0.14 (5.1%) to $2.86 on volume of 9.4m units
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +2.14 (4.6%) to $48.56 on volume of 32.9m units
- American Express (AXP) +0.67 (4.1%) to $17.03 on volume of 26.9m units
- Caterpillar (CAT) +1.01 (3.3%) to $31.61 on volume of 17.5m units
- Home Depot (HD) +0.67 (3.1%) to $22.4 on volume of 24.4m units
Dow Duds:
- General Electric (GE) -0.41 (3.6%) to $10.85 on volume of 194.2m units
- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) -0.94 (2.6%) to $35.09 on volume of 27m units
- Disney Corp (DIS) -0.29 (1.5%) to $18.71 on volume of 34.7m units
- Pfizer (PFE) -0.07 (0.5%) to $14.5 on volume of 76.6m units
- IBM (IBM) -0.42 (0.5%) to $92.41 on volume of 11.3m units
Most Traded Dow stocks:
- Bank Of America (BAC) +0.14 (3%) to $4.84 on volume of 744.5m units
- Citigroup (C) +0.04 (1.1%) to $3.53 on volume of 217m units
- General Electric (GE) -0.41 (3.6%) to $10.85 on volume of 194.2m units
- JPMorganChase (JPM) +0.50 (2.1%) to $24.54 on volume of 79.4m units
- Pfizer (PFE) -0.07 (0.5%) to $14.50 on volume of 76.6m units
Precious Metals
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) gained 3.39 points (2.75%) to 126.83 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 138.17m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 2.2 to one, with 11 advancers to 5 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 118.13m to 20.04m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +2.3 (4.4%) to $54.75 on volume of 5.06m shares;
- Barrick Gold (ABX) +1.49 (4%) to $38.57 on volume of 13.41m shares;
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) +1.07 (3.9%) to $28.35 on volume of 31.14m shares;
- Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) +0.41 (3.9%) to $10.89 on volume of 10.29m shares; and
- Kinroos Gold (KGC) +0.64 (3.7%) to $18.05 on volume of 10.71m shares.
Energy Complex
The Oil Services index (OSX) advanced 5.11 points (3.97%) to 133.74 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 108.06m shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: the biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Smith International (SII) +1.42 (6.2%) to $24.19 on volume of 6.04m shares;
- Weatherford International (WFT) +0.65 (5.9%) to $11.69 on volume of 14.98m shares;
- Global Industries (GLBL) +0.2 (5.8%) to $3.67 on volume of 1.13m shares;
- Schlumberger (SLB) +2.27 (5.4%) to $44.55 on volume of 12.62m shares; and
- BJ Services (BJS) +0.57 (5.1%) to $11.78 on volume of 6.37m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 1.2%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) -0.41 (3.64%) to $10.85 on volume of 194.2m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.04 (1.15%) to $3.53 on volume of 217.04m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +2.14 (4.61%) to $48.56 on volume of 32.91m units.
- IBM (IBM) -0.42 (0.45%) to $92.41 on volume of 11.35m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.37 (2.67%) to $14.25 on volume of 58.85m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.51 (3.22%) to $16.35 on volume of 114.75m units.
- Google (GOOG) +10.72 (3.13%) to $353.72 on volume of 7.23m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -0 (0%) to $0.52 on volume of 19.17m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -0 (0%) to $0.52 on volume of 12.02m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) rose 0.48 points (1.8%) to 27.13 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 1.57bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 5.7 to one, with 17 advancers to 3 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 1.31bn to 243.79m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.35 (24.3%) to $1.79 on volume of 32.65m shares;
- State Street (STT) +3.41 (14.1%) to $27.54 on volume of 23.06m shares;
- Regions Financial (RF) +0.33 (13.2%) to $2.83 on volume of 28.91m shares;
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +0.1 (6.5%) to $1.64 on volume of 56.51m shares; and
- US Bancorp (USB) +0.82 (5.8%) to $14.99 on volume of 38.97m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) rose 8.56 points (4.02%) to 221.31 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 288.06m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 17 to one, with 17 advancers to 1 decliner. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 281.18m to 6.88m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.07 (8.3%) to $0.91 on volume of 0.84m shares;
- Sandisk (SNDK) +0.72 (7.8%) to $10.01 on volume of 8.65m shares;
- Xilinx (XLNX) +1.11 (6.5%) to $18.3 on volume of 12.73m shares;
- Broadcom (BRCM) +0.99 (6%) to $17.47 on volume of 20.26m shares; and
- National Semiconductor (NSM) +0.57 (5.2%) to $11.46 on volume of 9.33m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) gained 1.58 points (0.64%) to 247.41 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 234.92m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 7 to one, with 14 advancers to 2 decliners; however declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 198.86m to 36.06m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Embraer Empresa (ERJ) +0.36 (2.3%) to $15.68 on volume of 0.7m shares;
- Alliant Tech (ATK) +1.77 (2.2%) to $82.72 on volume of 0.39m shares;
- General Dynamics (GD) +1.18 (2.1%) to $56.23 on volume of 2.35m shares;
- Esterline Tech (ESL) +0.68 (1.9%) to $37.24 on volume of 0.23m shares; and
- Boeing (BA) +0.75 (1.8%) to $42.72 on volume of 8.77m shares.
