Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

USRant: You've Gotta Laugh...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well well... the Yanks are getting twitchy about the Magic Mulatto - it seems that America has woken up and realised that platitudes are still platitudes, even if they're not being mangled by an inbred halfwit: The Great Off-White Hope tried to talk to Merka during the session, and the reaction was as if he had tried to sell pork sausages in the local synagogue.

So we're clear... playtime is over.

But enough about Mr Magic and the impending theft of future prosperity by every western government... let's talk about how smart I am (and sexy too).

On Monday I declared a bit of a batting power play - I wanted to try to force the run-rate up a tad, because I felt that I was seeing the ball well (plus, the bowling was predictable). Still no cross-bat stuff - I am not batting like Gichrist yet. Still, I thought that it was a reasonable thing to raise the target run rate from 1% a day, to 2.5%: I had routinely been hitting 1.3-1.5% when aiming for 1%, and I was leaving large numbers of hunjies on the table. So I raise the required run rate. 

So how did that go, beloved GT? I hear you ask.

Splendidly, and thanks for asking.

It went like clockwork - we have been lofting cover drives and taking advantage of the lack of a long-on. My timing is still not good enough for me to have the nerve to attempt the leg glance (even though fine leg is inside the circle); I have had one nick through the vacant slip cordon, but apart from that it's been pretty chanceless thus far.

To put it in language that Yanks would understand (coming as they do from a barbarian cuture), we've been takin' the DAX downtown - and kickin' it old school in Crude, yo. SPI? We own it.

Take today for example (yesterday was an 18-hunjie day... oo-rah!). Today there was a little over ten hunjie in 55 minutes in the DAX about two hours ago (2 trades, each of which lasted 9 minutes), and 4 hunjie fiddie on a long Crude bought at $37.89.

Initially I thought I might ride Crude for a month maybe, because this is most likely a swing low: from here Crude could easily rally $20 (particularly given expiration next week with a huge new population of short nuffnuffs to slaughter). A $20 move translates to two hunjie hunjie (yes, two hunjie hunjie... not just two hunjie)... but I took the trade off at $38.20 just to be consistent. Don't want to fall in love with one side of the market, now do we?

I might have a crack at the SPI after the open of the cash (let the nuffies do a cliff-dive, then buy at about 11 a.m. for a bounce).

I'm going to stop this type of post (blah blah blah about the trading account) as of today - as I mentioned, the thing is up nicely (36% as of now), and that's since Jan 19th, and that's slightly above expectations; from here until Feb 20th I am going to scale back the trading a bit... back to 1% a day ... in order to post a 40% full-month return.

 

Economic News

INothing of note - The Great Beige Hope tried to rally the masses with a speech about how we must hold on to the dream, or to the night, or something. The Dow loved it not, it seems. 


Headline Indices


The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 381.99 points (4.62%) to 7888.88 points. The index high for the day was 8269.44, while the low was 7849.37.

Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 1.93bn shares. None of the 30 index components rose today: 30 stocks within the index fell, with downside volume of 1.93bn shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Bank Of America (BAC) -1.33 (19.3%) to $5.56 on volume of 604.08m shares;
  • Citigroup (C) -0.60 (15.2%) to $3.35 on volume of 295.24m shares;
  • AIG (AIG) -0.12 (11.5%) to $0.92 on volume of 58.94m shares;
  • American Express (AXP) -1.78 (10%) to $15.97 on volume of 25.68m shares; and
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.85 (10%) to $7.65 on volume of 44.22m shares.

The S&P500 Index lost 42.73 points (4.91%) to 827.16 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 5.76bn shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 67.6 to one, with 473 decliners to 7 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 5.62bn to 86.47m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Regions Financial Corp. (RF) -1.4 (30.2%) to $3.24 on volume of 47.06m shares;
  • Principal Financial Group (PFG) -5.04 (29.6%) to $11.99 on volume of 22.78m shares;
  • SunTrust Banks (STI) -3.38 (27.2%) to $9.06 on volume of 38.06m shares;
  • KeyCorp (KEY) -2.4 (26.6%) to $6.63 on volume of 23.21m shares; and
  • Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI) -1.41 (26%) to $4.01 on volume of 15.01m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite declined 66.83 points (4.2%) to 1524.73 points, while the Nasdaq100 fell 52.36 points (4.09%) to 1229.29 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the index was 1.08bn shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 23.5 to one, with 94 decliners to 4 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 1.02bn to 65.08m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Sun Microsystems (JAVA) -0.66 (11.5%) to $5.1 on volume of 16.44m shares;
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) -3.27 (10.6%) to $27.58 on volume of 2m shares;
  • Focus Media Holding (FMCN) -0.81 (9.4%) to $7.8 on volume of 3.63m shares;
  • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) -0.9 (9.4%) to $8.67 on volume of 1.26m shares; and
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) -1.74 (9.4%) to $16.84 on volume of 16.57m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index gained +3.03 points (6.94%) to 46.67 points. and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index added +2.35 points (5.4%) to 45.86 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3867 issues traded today on the NYSE; 620 stocks posted gains for the day, and there were 3175 losers. 12 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 104 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2903 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.44bn shares. A total of 511 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 0.17bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 2253 losers, and total declining volume was 2.27bn shares. 7 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 100 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 7888.88 -381.99 -4.62%
S&P500 Index 827.16 -42.73 -4.91%
Nasdaq Composite 1524.73 -66.83 -4.2%
Nasdaq100 1229.29 -52.36 -4.09%
CBOE Volatility Index 46.67 +3.03 6.94%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 45.86 +2.35 5.4%

No Dow components rose

.

Dow Duds:

  • Bank Of America (BAC) -1.33 (19.3%) to $5.56 on volume of 604.1m units
  • Citigroup (C) -0.60 (15.2%) to $3.35 on volume of 295.3m units
  • American Express (AXP) -1.78 (10%) to $15.97 on volume of 25.7m units
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.85 (10%) to $7.65 on volume of 44.2m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) -2.66 (9.8%) to $24.62 on volume of 91.5m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Bank Of America (BAC) -1.33 (19.3%) to $5.56 on volume of 604.1m units
  • Citigroup (C) -0.60 (15.2%) to $3.35 on volume of 295.3m units
  • General Electric (GE) -1.02 (8.1%) to $11.62 on volume of 195.9m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) -2.66 (9.8%) to $24.62 on volume of 91.5m units
  • Intel (INTC) -0.83 (5.6%) to $14.08 on volume of 88.4m units
Precious Metals

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) slid -2.61 points (2.07%) to 123.49 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 135.38m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 15 to one, with 15 decliners to 1 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 120.24m to 15.14m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) -2.03 (6.9%) to $27.29 on volume of 23.34m shares;
  • Silver Stand Resources (SSRI) -0.72 (3.5%) to $19.69 on volume of 0.79m shares;
  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) -0.19 (2.9%) to $6.31 on volume of 6.37m shares;
  • Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -0.02 (2.8%) to $0.69 on volume of 7.08m shares; and
  • Newmnt Mining (NEM) -1.01 (2.5%) to $39.35 on volume of 9.39m shares.
Energy Complex

The Oil Services index (OSX) slid -6.92 points (5.01%) to 131.13 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 120.21m shares. None of the 15 index components rose today: the main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Global Industries (GLBL) -0.42 (10.4%) to $3.61 on volume of 1.27m shares;
  • Nabors Industries (NBR) -1.06 (8.9%) to $10.86 on volume of 8.43m shares;
  • Rowan Co (RDC) -1.21 (8.6%) to $12.9 on volume of 7.27m shares;
  • Weatherford International (WFT) -1.02 (8.4%) to $11.15 on volume of 17.34m shares; and
  • BJ Services (BJS) -0.83 (6.9%) to $11.25 on volume of 7.77m shares.

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 8.4%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -1.02 (8.07%) to $11.62 on volume of 195.89m units.
  • Citigroup (C) -0.6 (15.19%) to $3.35 on volume of 295.26m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) -1.56 (3.17%) to $47.72 on volume of 25.3m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -3.55 (3.67%) to $93.27 on volume of 13.22m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.83 (5.57%) to $14.08 on volume of 88.43m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.8 (4.75%) to $16.05 on volume of 68.63m units.
  • Google (GOOG) -20.26 (5.35%) to $358.51 on volume of 7.06m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.09 (14.06%) to $0.55 on volume of 24.77m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.1 (15.38%) to $0.55 on volume of 11.07m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) dropped -4.3 points (13.85%) to 26.74 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 1.49bn shares. None of the 24 index components rose today: the main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Regions Financial (RF) -1.4 (30.2%) to $3.24 on volume of 47.06m shares;
  • Suntrust Banks (STI) -3.38 (27.2%) to $9.06 on volume of 38.06m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) -2.4 (26.6%) to $6.63 on volume of 23.21m shares;
  • New M&I Corporation (MI) -1.41 (26%) to $4.01 on volume of 15.01m shares; and
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) -0.65 (24.9%) to $1.96 on volume of 39.72m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) slid -10.48 points (4.6%) to 217.33 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 331.49m shares. None of the 18 index components rose today: the main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -0.25 (10.6%) to $2.11 on volume of 24.48m shares;
  • Infineon Tech (IFX) -0.1 (9.2%) to $0.99 on volume of 0.72m shares;
  • Teradyne (TER) -0.43 (8.1%) to $4.85 on volume of 6.71m shares;
  • Micron Technology (MU) -0.3 (6.9%) to $4.02 on volume of 36.14m shares; and
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) -0.38 (6.5%) to $5.45 on volume of 2.27m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) declined -12.17 points (4.82%) to 240.1 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 238.13m shares. None of the 17 index components rose today: the main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Gencorp (GY) -0.37 (11.5%) to $2.84 on volume of 0.44m shares;
  • General Electric (GE) -1.02 (8.1%) to $11.62 on volume of 195.88m shares;
  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) -1.08 (6.5%) to $15.56 on volume of 1.35m shares;
  • Boeing (BA) -2.59 (6.1%) to $40.21 on volume of 9.96m shares; and
  • FLIRr Systems (FLIR) -1.24 (5.3%) to $22.36 on volume of 3.65m shares.