Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

OzRant: I Heard You Making Patterns Rhyme...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The thing about government interference in markets, is this: all government intervention can do is misprice output (and then only temporarily), and/or flail about in the aftermath.

Take the private market for assassination: it's well-developed, borderless, tax-free and pretty efficient. There is an entire 'grey' banking system in which such things are transacted, and folks who seek the death of other folks get what they want, with outlays that are surprisingly modest. It turns out that there are loads of people who are prepared to kill a stranger, for little more than a week's ordinary wages (I guess they do more than one a week...).

Of course government is going try to interfere in such a market - their whole schtick is that only they have the right to arbitrarily knock people off. So, if you're known to either hire or to be hired, then it's off to the Bastille with you. 

The thing about that, though, is that government thugs are so inefficient that the only plots that they can ever 'break' are the ones that they set up in the first place.

It's like the old IRA days - if there were four people in a plan, that meant one was Garda, one was RUC, one was a British plant, and one was some nuffnuff who wanted to join the IRA but didn't know how: that would be the guy they eventually 'busted', and he would be touted as a ringleader.

And so it goes with the private market for justice: someone decides to hire them some lethal justice, and the key variable is whether or not the guy offering his services is a state goon (although it must be said - not all state goons hiring themselves out for wet work are undercover cops...). In the event that you use the properly developed market, the odds of non-completion are near zero... and government gets to flail around in the aftermath (mopping up blood, digging up body parts, and just plain getting frustrated).

And that, dearest Reader, is a beautiful thing. 

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - declined gently, dropping 35.4 points (0.89%), finishing at 3933.6 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3992.6 at 10:42 am, while the low for the day was 3933.6 - set at the close. So clearly the nuffnuffs thought that they should invest based on the whackery expounded by the likes of 'Kochie' - mindless optimism coupled with blind acceptance of the prognostications of one's political overlords. The 'CNBC method' where everyone behaves as if being mindlessly optimistic qualifies as 'analysis'.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 2.28bn units, 6.1% above its 10-day average of 2.14bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1382 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 456 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 787.7m units; there were 611 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 1.25bn shares.

Of the 499 All Ordinaries components, 163 rose while 252 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.9:1, with 507.42m shares traded in gainers while 978.64m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 36.3 points (0.91%), closing out the session at 3934.9 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3933.60 -35.40 (0.9%)
ASX 20 2372.30 -19.60 (0.8%)
ASX 50 3953.30 -33.80 (0.8%)
ASX 100 3221.30 -28.20 (0.9%)
ASX 200 3934.90 -36.30 (0.9%)
ASX 300 3931.40 -35.90 (0.9%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3520.60 -36.10 (1.0%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2111.60 -29.40 (1.4%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid modestly, falling 19.6 points (0.82%), closing out the session at 2372.3 points.

Among the 20 big guns, the decliners just edged out the gainers - 10 advancing components were only just edged out (in numerical terms) by the decliners. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 208.48m units; 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 135.75m shares, while the 11 decliners had volume traded totalling 72.72m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • CSL Ltd (CSL), +$1.51 (5.21%) to $30.49 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.24 (2.11%) to $11.62 on volume of 12.2 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.05 (1.59%) to $3.20 on volume of 21.9 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Australia (CBA), +$0.48 (1.31%) to $36.99 on volume of 5 million shares; and
  • Telstra Corp Ltd (TLS), +$0.04 (1.25%) to $3.24 on volume of 50.1 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP), -$1.68 (4.4%) to $36.50 on volume of 21.9 million shares;
  • Origin Energy Ltd (ORG), -$0.55 (3.67%) to $14.45 on volume of 5.2 million shares;
  • Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM), -$1.09 (3.33%) to $31.65 on volume of 3.9 million shares;
  • RIO Tinto Ltd (RIO), -$1.88 (2.59%) to $70.61 on volume of 5.4 million shares; and
  • AMP Ltd (AMP), -$0.07 (1.44%) to $4.80 on volume of 9.5 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) The small end of the market had significantly worse day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords registered a loss of 29.4 points (1.37%), closing out the session at 2111.6 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 66 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 125 closed lower for the session.

The 214 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 493.24m units: volume in the 66 gainers totalling 172.02m shares, with trade totalling 277.52m units in the index's 125 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • MEO Australia (MEO), +$0.03 (17.86%) to $0.17 on volume of 17.4 million shares;
  • Specialty Fashion Group (SFH), +$0.08 (17.44%) to $0.51 on volume of 472.9 thousand shares;
  • Sylvania Resources (SLV), +$0.16 (11.57%) to $1.50 on volume of 459.9 thousand shares;
  • Extract Resources Ltd (EXT), +$0.56 (9.49%) to $6.46 on volume of 811.6 thousand shares; and
  • Energy Developments Ltd (ENE), +$0.14 (8.97%) to $1.70 on volume of 796 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Mineral Deposits (MDL), -$0.07 (9.33%) to $0.68 on volume of 910.6 thousand shares;
  • Felix Resources (FLX), -$1.29 (9.02%) to $13.01 on volume of 444.2 thousand shares;
  • Centennial Coal Company (CEY), -$0.23 (8.46%) to $2.49 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Perseus Mining (PRU), -$0.08 (8.21%) to $0.90 on volume of 649.7 thousand shares; and
  • Perilya (PEM), -$0.04 (7.95%) to $0.41 on volume of 1.5 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3933.6 -35.4 -0.89 1592m
XFL ASX 50 3953.3 -33.8 -0.85 566.1m
XJO ASX 200 3934.9 -36.3 -0.91 1384.4m
XKO ASX 300 3931.4 -35.9 -0.9 1535.7m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3520.6 -36.1 -1.01 505m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 2111.6 -29.4 -1.37 464.7m
XTL ASX 20 2372.3 -19.6 -0.82 186.6m
XTO ASX 100 3221.3 -28.2 -0.87 1071m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 10 34 57 163 66 456
Declines 11 68 134 252 125 611
Advancing Volume 135.8m 339.1m 440.6m 507.4m 172m 787.7m
Declining Volume 72.7m 753.4m 902.1m 978.6m 277.5m 1.25bn
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the outcome favoured the upside, but only just - the 6 advancing sectors just triumphed the 5 losing sectors.

The best performing index was Healthcare (XHJ), which added 260.1 points (3.46%) to 7780.4 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 18.2m units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 14.22m shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 2.01m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • CSL Ltd (CSL), +$1.51 (5.21%) to $30.49 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
  • Sonic Healthcare Ltd (SHL), +$0.49 (4.33%) to $11.80 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Ansell Ltd (ANN), +$0.28 (3.31%) to $8.73 on volume of 630.5 thousand shares;
  • ResMed Inc (RMD), +$0.12 (2.55%) to $4.83 on volume of 959.2 thousand shares; and
  • Primary Health Care Ltd (PRY), +$0.05 (0.92%) to $5.50 on volume of 1.9 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Telecommunications (XTJ), which gained 10 points (0.9%) to 1119.7 points. This index only contains 3 stocks; they traded a total of 57.86m units today. The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 50.09m shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 7.77m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Telstra Corp Ltd (TLS), +$0.04 (1.25%) to $3.24 on volume of 50.1 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which climbed 6.4 points (0.15%) to 4140.2 points. The 25 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 85.83m units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 39.5m shares, while the 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 34.56m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Sunland Group Ltd (SDG), +$0.02 (2.96%) to $0.70 on volume of 876.3 thousand shares;
  • Tower Australia Ltd (TAL), +$0.07 (2.57%) to $2.79 on volume of 570.6 thousand shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Australia (CBA), +$0.48 (1.31%) to $36.99 on volume of 5 million shares;
  • Bank Of Queensland Ltd (BOQ), +$0.10 (1.15%) to $8.79 on volume of 661.6 thousand shares; and
  • Lend Lease Corporation Ltd (LLC), +$0.07 (0.95%) to $7.46 on volume of 1.1 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 359.8 points (3.3%) to 10555.9 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 347.46m units; The 34 decliners had volume traded totalling 213.75m units, and 9 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 128.09m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Perilya Limited (PEM), -$0.04 (7.95%) to $0.41 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Avoca Resources Ltd (AVO), -$0.11 (6.29%) to $1.64 on volume of 883.8 thousand shares;
  • Sino Gold Mining Ltd (SGX), -$0.39 (6.23%) to $5.87 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Panoramic Resources (PAN), -$0.15 (6.2%) to $2.27 on volume of 2.2 million shares; and
  • St Barbara (SBM), -$0.02 (5.56%) to $0.26 on volume of 14.4 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Energy (XEJ), which slid 312.5 points (2.09%) to 14649.2 points. The 22 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 67.44m units; The 17 decliners had volume traded totalling 42.29m units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 18.64m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Felix Resources (FLX), -$1.29 (9.02%) to $13.01 on volume of 444.2 thousand shares;
  • Centennial Coal Co Ltd (CEY), -$0.23 (8.46%) to $2.49 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Linc Energy (LNC), -$0.15 (6.94%) to $1.95 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Australian Worldwide Explorat (AWE), -$0.16 (5.57%) to $2.71 on volume of 3.4 million shares; and
  • Arrow Energy (AOE), -$0.19 (5%) to $3.61 on volume of 3 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Utilities (XUJ), which slid 59.2 points (1.41%) to 4145.1 points. The 11 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 43.95m units; The 9 decliners had volume traded totalling 34.78m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 7.71m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Hastings Diversified Utilities Fund (HDF), -$0.11 (7.12%) to $1.37 on volume of 840.8 thousand shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), -$0.01 (6.67%) to $0.10 on volume of 3.1 million shares;
  • Duet Group (DUE), -$0.06 (3.31%) to $1.61 on volume of 3.9 million shares;
  • Envestra Ltd (ENV), -$0.02 (3.06%) to $0.48 on volume of 1.4 million shares; and
  • APA Group (APA), -$0.08 (2.88%) to $2.70 on volume of 980.5 thousand shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XHJ Healthcare 7780.4 260.1 3.46 18m
XTJ Telecommunications 1119.7 10 0.9 58m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4140.2 6.4 0.15 86m
XPJ Property Trusts 756.6 0.5 0.07 545m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6585.8 4.1 0.06 35m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1294 0.6 0.05 50m
XNJ Industrials 3033 -34.9 -1.14 171m
XIJ Information Technology 518.5 -6.9 -1.31 3m
XUJ Utilities 4145.1 -59.2 -1.41 44m
XEJ Energy 14649.2 -312.5 -2.09 67m
XMJ Materials 10555.9 -359.8 -3.3 347m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MGR Mirvac Group 1.19 -0.14 -10.53 160.4m
GPT GPT Group 0.48 -0.06 -10.38 114.8m
BLY Boart Longyear 0.20 0.03 14.29 66.3m
GMG Goodman Group 0.36 -0.01 -2.7 60.1m
SDL Sundance Resources 0.16 0.01 3.23 50.5m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
COZ CO2 Group 0.25 0.05 25 140.9k
PBB Pacifica Group 0.18 0.04 25 22.2k
MEO MEO Australia 0.17 0.03 17.86 17.4m
SFH Specialty Fashion Group 0.51 0.08 17.44 472.9k
NRT Novogen 0.87 0.12 16.11 36.6k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MGR Mirvac Group 1.19 -0.14 -10.53 160.4m
GPT GPT Group 0.48 -0.06 -10.38 114.8m
QTM Quantum Energy 0.18 -0.02 -10.26 164.8k
BRG Breville Group Ltd 0.92 -0.10 -9.8 18.5k
TZL TZ 1.03 -0.11 -9.65 113.4k