Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

OzRant: Told Ya... Trust No-one...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well well well... so yesterday's jeremiad (regarding the non-trustworthiness of the engineered short-squeeze which began during the luncheon interval) wasn't far wide of the mark. I never tire of times when a plan comes together.

And today's action was straight from the nuffnuff playbook... US up 100-odd points, nuffnuffs herd in at the Strayan open (the market, not the tennis extravaganza), and from there it's the sound of the bolt gun on the drop floor.

100 points from high to low is nothing to smirk at. For those who ignored the short call from just afore my birfday, a bounce is brewing which ought to enable shorts to reset higher. That call, when it comes, is one that you ignore at your peril... it will be slaughter. 

That said, It's not yet time to exit shorts - that will, as usual,. be done on a morning nuffie-splash... as soon as our Swamp-o-meter rises to five.

The Swamp-o-meter is easy to construct - count the number of journalists at Bloomberg, CNBC, the Wall Street Journal and other mainswamp outlets who blather on about continuing market weakness. It's not actually part of their job to convince the masses to get themselves on the wrong side of every trade, but it might as well be. 

And this can be extended to other markets. If journalists are banging on about $100 oil every time you turn on the telly... then the right thing to do is to short oil anytime it gets close to $100 (I would not short oil under any circumstances at the moment, as I have said before).

Even thinking about the subprime mess, these hacks only starting writing about it when the overwhelming bulk of the damage was already done in that market segment. Monoline insurers had already lost 75% of their market cap when journalists even discovered what CDO insurance even meant (but I will show today's USRant readers that it was explained to them almost 4 years ago in these very pages).

CBA had a rubbish first half report... but SGB got pummelled much worse. Where's the story about SGB? Answer - nobody has sent a fax to the newsdesks, so the 'finance reporters' have no idea what they are supposed to regurgitate.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - gave back almost every point of yesterday's advance, dropping 54.1 points (0.95%), finishing at 5615.3 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5717.2 at 10:17 am, while the low for the day was 5615.3 - set at the close.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.43 billion units, 6% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1389 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 476 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 483.8 million units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 638 stocks were dragged to a loss, with aggregate volume traded of 823.9 million shares.

Of the 478 All Ordinaries components, 184 rose while 225 fell. Aggregate volume within the All Ords was evenly split - 387.89 million shares traded in gainers while 393.5 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - registered a loss of 66 points (1.18%), closing out the session at 5542.1 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 5615.30 -54.10 (1.0%)
ASX 50 5357.60 -88.40 (1.6%)
ASX 200 5542.10 -66.00 (1.2%)
ASX 300 5550.90 -65.30 (1.2%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 5791.70 28.80 (0.5%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 3346.80 -2.40 (0.1%)
ASX 20 3029.10 -62.40 (2.0%)
ASX 100 4477.30 -58.80 (1.3%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - were taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 62.4 points (2.02%), closing out the session at 3029.1 points. Banks led the carnage.

Among the 20 big guns, 7 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 14 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 188.8 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 99.71 million shares, while the 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 89.09 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Foster's Group Limited (FGL), +$0.25 (4.54%) to $5.76 on volume of 6.3 million shares;
  • Telstra (Installment Receipts) (TLSCA), +$0.07 (2.32%) to $3.09 on volume of 26.4 million shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL), +$0.75 (1.62%) to $47.05 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$0.55 (1.48%) to $37.70 on volume of 1.5 million shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation Limited. (TLS), +$0.06 (1.31%) to $4.65 on volume of 51.3 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • St George Bank Limited (SGB), -$1.95 (7.12%) to $25.45 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), -$2.08 (6.46%) to $30.12 on volume of 9.8 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$3.12 (6.32%) to $46.28 on volume of 14.2 million shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), -$1.57 (6.21%) to $23.73 on volume of 10.1 million shares; and
  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.44 (5.32%) to $7.83 on volume of 14 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small end of the market , while still dropping overall, did significantly better than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords slid modestly, falling 2.4 points (0.07%), closing out the session at 3346.8 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 80 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 88 closed lower for the session.

The 192 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 248.32 million units: volume in the 80 gainers totalling 106.05 million shares, with trade totalling 110.31 million units in the index's 88 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • SAI Global Limited (SAI), +$0.32 (13.5%) to $2.69 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Bannerman Resources Limited (BMN), +$0.20 (8.4%) to $2.58 on volume of 451 thousand shares;
  • Crane Group Limited (CRG), +$1.00 (6.64%) to $16.05 on volume of 458.3 thousand shares;
  • Mineral Deposits Limited (MDL), +$0.07 (6.51%) to $1.15 on volume of 275.2 thousand shares; and
  • Energy Resources Of Australia Limited (ERA), +$1.28 (6.24%) to $21.78 on volume of 731.1 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Credit Corp Group Limited (CCP), -$0.27 (23.28%) to $0.89 on volume of 8.2 million shares;
  • Flexigroup Limited (FXL), -$0.25 (17.73%) to $1.16 on volume of 106.6 thousand shares;
  • Record Realty (RRT), -$0.07 (11.48%) to $0.54 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Rubicon America Trust (RAT), -$0.03 (8.82%) to $0.31 on volume of 1.4 million shares; and
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.07 (8.75%) to $0.73 on volume of 3 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5615.3 -54.1 -0.95 821.1m
XFL ASX 50 5357.6 -88.4 -1.62 334.6m
XJO ASX 200 5542.1 -66 -1.18 693.2m
XKO ASX 300 5550.9 -65.3 -1.16 774.2m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 5791.7 28.8 0.5 191.3m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3346.8 -2.4 -0.07 248.3m
XTL ASX 20 3029.1 -62.4 -2.02 188.8m
XTO ASX 100 4477.3 -58.8 -1.3 525.9m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 7 44 44 183 80 476
Declines 14 55 55 225 88 638
Advancing Volume 99.7m 259.2m 259.2m 383.9m 106.1m 483.8 million
Declining Volume 89.1m 262.7m 262.7m 393.5m 110.3m 823.9 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 8 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 3 lost ground.

The best performing index was Information Technology (XIJ), which added 37.5 points (8.43%) to 482.6 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 7.53 million units; both rose -

  • Computershare Limited (CPU), +$0.68 (8.99%) to $8.24 on volume of 7.2 million shares; and
  • Iress Market Technology Limited (IRE), +$0.06 (0.92%) to $6.56 on volume of 286 thousand shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Telecommunications (XTJ), which gained 31.3 points (1.93%) to 1650.2 points. The 4 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 83.41 million units; 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 81.03 million shares, while sole declining stock traded 2.38 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Telstra (Installment Receipts) (TLSCA), +$0.07 (2.32%) to $3.09 on volume of 26.4 million shares;
  • Singapore Telecommunications Limited. (SGT), +$0.05 (1.64%) to $3.09 on volume of 3.3 million shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation Limited. (TLS), +$0.06 (1.31%) to $4.65 on volume of 51.3 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Utilities (XUJ), which climbed 68.7 points (1.17%) to 5964.1 points. The 11 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 21.17 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 18.31 million shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 2.61 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Transfield Services Infrastructure Fund (TSI), +$0.08 (5.56%) to $1.52 on volume of 383.6 thousand shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), +$0.08 (3.81%) to $2.18 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI), +$0.04 (2.65%) to $1.36 on volume of 8.9 million shares;
  • Hastings Diversified Utilities Fund (HDF), +$0.07 (2.62%) to $2.74 on volume of 193.1 thousand shares; and
  • AGL Energy Limited (AGK), +$0.28 (2.4%) to $11.93 on volume of 1.4 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which dipped 278.3 points (4.61%) to 5762.6 points thanks almost entirely to the banks. The 28 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 102.64 million units; The 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 84.32 million units, and 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 13.59 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • St George Bank Limited (SGB), -$1.95 (7.12%) to $25.45 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), -$2.08 (6.46%) to $30.12 on volume of 9.8 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$3.12 (6.32%) to $46.28 on volume of 14.2 million shares;
  • Bendigo Bank Limited (BEN), -$0.74 (6.26%) to $11.09 on volume of 1.3 million shares; and
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), -$1.57 (6.21%) to $23.73 on volume of 10.1 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 191.7 points (2.16%) to 8688.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 28.09 million units; The 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 5.67 million units, and 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 22.42 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • CSL Limited (CSL), -$1.1 (3.24%) to $32.90 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
  • Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL), -$0.46 (2.95%) to $15.15 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • Cochlear Limited (COH), -$1.25 (2.12%) to $57.70 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
  • Healthscope Limited (HSP), -$0.11 (2.04%) to $5.28 on volume of 487.4 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 34.1 points (1.86%) to 1801.5 points. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 140.71 million units; The 15 decliners had volume traded totalling 104.85 million units, and 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 35.86 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.07 (8.75%) to $0.73 on volume of 3 million shares;
  • Apn/Uka European Retail Property Group (AEZ), -$0.04 (5.13%) to $0.74 on volume of 678.2 thousand shares;
  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.02 (4.71%) to $0.41 on volume of 11.1 million shares;
  • GPT Group (GPT), -$0.16 (4.16%) to $3.69 on volume of 6.6 million shares; and
  • Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.18 (4.04%) to $4.27 on volume of 7.5 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XIJ Information Technology 482.6 37.5 8.43 8m
XTJ Telecommunications 1650.2 31.3 1.93 83m
XUJ Utilities 5964.1 68.7 1.17 21m
XMJ Materials 14313.1 114.4 0.81 128m
XSJ Consumer Staples 7770.6 61 0.79 30m
XNJ Industrials 5731.6 39.6 0.7 72m
XEJ Energy 13970 26 0.19 45m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2312.5 1.6 0.07 35m
XPJ Property Trusts 1801.5 -34.1 -1.86 141m
XHJ Healthcare 8688.5 -191.7 -2.16 28m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 5762.6 -278.3 -4.61 103m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.65 0.06 1.31 51.3m
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.62 -0.01 -0.81 31m
TLSCA Telstra (Installment Receipts) 3.09 0.07 2.32 26.4m
SDL Sundance Resources Limited 0.25 -0.01 -2 22.7m
MIG Macquarie Infrastructure Group 3.23 0.15 4.87 19.6m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
NFL Natural Fuel Limited 0.12 0.02 20 2m
SAI SAI Global Limited 2.69 0.32 13.5 1.3m
EWC Energy World Corporation Ltd 1.03 0.09 9.57 1.8m
FZN Fone Zone Group Limited 0.58 0.05 9.43 56.4k
CPU Computershare Limited 8.24 0.68 8.99 7.2m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CCP Credit Corp Group Limited 0.89 -0.27 -23.28 8.2m
FXL Flexigroup Limited 1.16 -0.25 -17.73 106.6k
REF Reverse Corp Limited 2.51 -0.49 -16.33 608.7k
AXQ Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust 0.23 -0.04 -13.46 187.2k
RRT Record Realty 0.54 -0.07 -11.48 1.5m

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

USRant: What's That Burning Smell?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Although I have not yet finished preparing the proper version of the USRant for 2008, today was interesting enough to encourage me to crank out some 'scheizola' (as Jim Dunn used to call it) for the Yank markets.

Imaginez-vous... before the open, futures were up a tad, and as a result places like Bloomberg were babbling on about the market rising in anticipation of the ISM (formerly NAPM) manufacturing Index and the Fed minutes... waxing lyrical... for the sole reason that the futures were already green.

Then the ISM survey came in much weaker than expected - at 46-and-a-bit as opposed to expectations of 52-and-a-bit. (As if anybody ought to give a flying crap about the ISM survey - it correlates with nothing whatsoever in the real economy).

Anyhow, anything that falls short of expectations causes coniptions in the post-CreditCrunch markets (before you mount your keyboard, I do not believe we are 'post'-Credit Crunch... but the entire MainSwamp is trying to give the impression that it was all in subprime mortgages, and that it's over).

Once the ISM number stank, bond markets spiked upwards - and some time later I pointed out as an afterthought that the 10 and 30-year bonds ought to be shorted sometime between now and Friday. Thereafter, the bond softened a tad, but firmed in late trading... it's still a screaming short, because every man and his dog is long the stupid thing, thinking that people no longer require compensation for inflation risk, when they're investing money for a 30-year period.

The Fed minutes were the usual pointless waste of ink and manpower - blah blah things are surprisingly weak... "surprising"? In a world where the government has poured money into the sands of the Middle East as if money was the blood of Iraqi children? Where's the surprise, when the US government is spending like a sailor on crack? When the US dollar index is the victim of the now-global mistrust of a profligate government?

Oddly enough, the Fed did not pump vast amounts of repo crack into the banking system in anticipation of the misery-laden ISM numbers (the Fed knows about economic stats beforehand, don't kid yourself). No, the Fed only pumped in a lousy $2.69 billion in Treasury-backed overnight repurchase agreements: the rest of the $14.25 billion repurchase operation was primarily in Mortgage-backed ($5.37 billion) and Agency-backed ($6.19 billion) - consistent with the near-terminal condition of (a) the mortgage market; and (b) agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are both hollower than the US Social Security Trust Fund (which has been completely emptied by government borrowing, off-the-accounts).

The Dow kept falling throughout the session - punctuated only by the release of the aforementioned Fed minutes. it was the standard "move 50, try to stabilise, drop another 50, try to stabilise, bounce 50, stop in your tracks... " and so on until the market was looking 13000 in the face (having opened above 13250). And of course the bounce between the 'tease break' of 13000 and the close was... wait for it... yep you guessed it, 50 points. In 20 minutes. Then it dropped 25 points... in four minutes.


Gold broke its all-time (nominal) record high during the session; Oil broke the $100 mark (also a nominal record) during the session; a move back above 1.48 in the Euro (not yet happened) would herald 1.5000 and 1.6000 in weeks; the US Dollar Index still has a 75 handle...does that look like a global vote of confidence as far the US is concerned? I point out also that all of these things were the subject of prior Rants... 

By the close, the Dow was showing a fall of just over 220 points (1.67%) at 13046.6. Only one Dow component rose - Pfizer (PFE, +0.17 to $22.90 on volume of 38.7 million shares), while the average fall in the other 29 components was almost 2%. Needless to say, declining volume in Dow stocks swamped advancing volume - to such a ludicrous extent that I can't be bothered doing the calculation.

The broader S&P 500 Index dropped 21.19 points (1.44%); quite a bit better than the Dow. Like the Dow, advancing volume in S&P components was absolutely swamped by declining volume. 

The volume skews were almost to the extent that a decent contrarian would buy the after-market in the S&P futures just for a punt at a pop-recovery (say, five or six futures points). To be honest though, the longer-term RantLook for the US is so staggeringly negative that for the present I am not remotely interested in trying to scalp a bit of a pop after an awful day.

The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq100 indices fell about the same percentage as the Dow (NComp -42.65 (1.61%) to 2609.63 ; NDX -35.22 (1.69%) to 2049.70). It is surprising that the Nasdaq indices held up as well as they did relative to the Dow, since the Dow's Energy components (XOM in particular) were somewhat insulated by the pop in oil prices.

As I mentioned earlier today, the "full works and jerks" version of the USRant will be up and running sometime tomorrow (US/European time). As I have now introduced a ludicrous requirement for spell-checking it is not a given that the USRant will be available within a half-hour of the close (as this one was), but it will certainly be available well before the Oz market open.

And it will have tables, which are obviously missing from this "USRant Lite".