As Good a Time As Any

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Wanna know what I really hate? Democracy.

By that, I don't mean that I hate the actual "idea" of selecting office-holders by giving every schlub a vote. What I hate, is the outcome.

You see, most members of our species are idiots. Humans are a herd animal, and it's pretty rare to find a herd animal that is not skittish and easily frightened... and easily manipulated by predators. And in the western political tradition, the predators are the politicans and their various paymasters (by which I most definitedly do NOT mean "the taxpayer").

I hate that "democracy" results in a career for second-rate lawyers, former union officials and people who want a change from their previous job as a secondary school teacher.

Iraq in turmoil, oil over $45, gold looking to push higher (more on that soon)... interesting times,, all brought on by ineptitude and/or outright corruption of political officeholders across the western world. What better time to dip a toe back in the waters of the river Rant.

But enough of that. If you thought that the "Morning Report" that I used to write was readable, then fasten your seatbelts.

The basic framework will be very similar to the reports I wrote for IWL; a relatively brief retrospect of each session's activity, concentrating on

• key indices (Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq Comp);
• market internals (volume, breadth, and so on);
• the Federal Reserves repurchases for the day;
• Economic data releases; and
• why Alan Greenspan is a frothy old crabber who had to become a bureaucrat to avoid living in a Cleanaway bin.

And a column wouldn't be complete without a wild-eyed rant about some minute aspect of the marlet that enrages me in some way or the other (but I promise not to write annoying run-on sentences like my near-Idol, Mogambo Guru).

Stuff that won't be covered everyday - but will be the subject of a "Focus" header about once a week - include

• the bond market;
• technical analysis of major markets or key subindices (Banks, Brokers, Gold and Gold Stocks, Oil);
• the mortgage market (this is the source of the next Depression, believe me); and
• a "full" breadth analysis.

From time to time I will sieze upon a particular issue and "go vertical". For example, when Reagan died recently, the entire media waffled on with the myth that he was a fiscal conservative. That was utter rubbish, as any examination of spending, tax and debt data from the period will show. Sadly, I had already written something on that score (two years ago) so I didn't revisit it.

I'm particularly proud of my breadth analysis; it contains heaps of stuff, including (but not limited to) -

• Put-Call ratios
• Index-option open-interest configuration;
• Volatility ratios (VIX, VXN, and QQV);
• Advance-Decline statistics;
• Index Relativities (e.g., NDX relative to SPX, and SOX relative to NDX)

And if folks are interested in a specific analysis, just drop me a line by adding a "Comment". They won't be displayed (this is not a democracy), but I will read them all and if I decide to perform a suggested analysis I will let folks know who suggested it.

It goes without saying that I will not be providing 'investment advice'; if I say something like "this market is one in which intraday bounces should be sold", I am not inviting anyone to buy or sell anything. However I will give a pretty complete retrospective/prospective of how I would structure my trading, so folks will be in no doubt about my views.