Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Saturday, October 23, 2004

Gold Chart with Amateur Wave Count

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I mentioned during the week (in a response to a comment) that I would try to post a picture showing my "enthusiastic amateur" Elliott Wave count for Gold - part of the basis for a view that Gold could have a real shakeout.

Gold, Monthly Continuous

Several things are pretty obvious; the first is that I'm no graphic designer. I have the creative flair of an autistic rhinoceros - so the chart's not pretty.
Also, Wave 1 takes place very abruptly, as does Wave 4, each taking less than three months to occur.
Waves 2, 3 and 5, meanwhile, take about a year to develop. Wave 2 is all over the shop, while Waves 3 and 5 have an easily discernible impulsive structure.
Anyway - I'm not promulgating this as any sort of "definitive" wave count, simply as one that appears to me to satisfy most of the Elliott rules of which I'm aware. (I know that wave iv of 5 overlaps the area of wave i of 5, but that is permitted in commodity markets).
The only thing that fazes me a little is that both of the "little Roman" waves (those labelled i-v) have "extended fifths". Apart from that, I'm reasonably happy with the overall look.
Once we get to what I believe to be the top of Wave (1) of a larger degree, things also unfold as a fairly standard corrective pattern thus far. In the longer run I think that what I have labelled A and B will have to be re-labelled as a and b, with a c to follow to complete a larger Wave A of an A-B-C correction. the target for the correction is the fourth wave of one less degree, which I've marked with a horizontal line. That will mark the end of Wave (2) of the larger degree wave - and the subsequent move in Gold should be breathtaking to behold (as are all 3rd waves), taking it to above $1000.
Timeframe? Well, the first wave developed over the course of 4 years, and on the "up by the stairts, down by the elevator" hypothesis it would be reasonable to expect wave 2 to be shorter in duration - 2.5 years is about what to look for. That means another 2 years of sideways to down action.
As I said before, I'm only an enthusiastic amateur at this wave stuff, but I'm stuffed if I can see any structure that permits another wave upwards. If anybody can point me to any work that has a better interpretation, I would appreciate it greatly.