Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, December 23, 2004

OzRant: ex-Divs Weigh on Indices

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Major Market Indices

For once the market didn't try a "pop & drop"; it did the drop in the first twenty minutes and then ground higher. For the first time in a while it didn't set any new records; for each of the last five sessions either the high of the day has been a new record, or the close has been a new record close. Today neither was true.

The weekly chart of the XAO is the most informative here; it's plainly in a "blowoff", parabolic move upwards. Although this could continue for another week, maybe even two or three, there is nowhere to go thereafter but down. Check out the chart; a sensible target for a healthy pullback, is about 3600.

XAO Weekly Chart

Markets are supposed to "breathe"; an accelerating trend is like trying to continually breath in (or out) and an increasing rate... it's doomed to failure. There is precious little breathing happening in this market. Most of the insto "investors", now all obsessed about relative performance on a quarterly basis, are holding their noses and buying beta, simply because the other fool is doing the same.

Interesting things happened in Virgin Blue (VBA -0.02 to $1.87) today, too: that "U" order from E*Trade didn't disappear (but it did move down in the market depth).It's still there, in fact. GSJBW and ML were big offerors of stock in the morning, which was a major catalyst for its weak opening. Then in the aftermarket, there were GSJBW and ML again, doing big overnight cross-trades (one for 500,000 units, and one for 231000 units).

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 1.90 points (0.09%), finishing at 2148.00 points. The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Alumina (AWC), +$0.05 (0.88%) to $5.76 on volume of 2.01m shares;
  • Westfield (WDC), +$0.13 (0.81%) to $16.20 on volume of 2.94m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.32 (0.81%) to $39.92 on volume of 2.34m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.09 (0.6%) to $15.14 on volume of 4.16m shares; and
  • QBE (QBE), +$0.08 (0.54%) to $14.90 on volume of 550,000 shares

The Top 20's worst performers (in percentage terms) were as follows:

  • WOW's "pairs trade" partner Coles Myer (CML), -$0.14 (1.42%) to $9.73 on volume of 5.96m shares;
  • News Corpse B (NWS), -$0.27 (1.08%) to $24.63 on volume of 2.77m shares;
  • News Corpse A (NWSLV), -$0.20 (0.82%) to $24.05 on volume of 2.99m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.04 (0.26%) to $15.42 on volume of 7.24m shares; and
  • Woodside (WPL), -$0.02 (0.1%) to $20.02 on volume of 1.9m shares.

The smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale - the ASX Small Ordinaries - fell by -15.00 points (-0.66%), finishing at 2268.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Henry Walker Eltin (HWE), +$0.08 (18.6%) to $0.51 on volume of 20m shares;
  • Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.16 (14.81%) to $1.24 on volume of 3.12m shares;
  • Mcpherson (MCP), +$0.25 (4.42%) to $5.90 on volume of 89,000 shares;
  • Sally Maly (SMY), +$0.03 (3.49%) to $0.89 on volume of 186,000 shares; and
  • Silex (SLX), +$0.04 (3.45%) to $1.20 on volume of 23,000 shares

The following stocks were the recipient of the buttered carrot...

  • SDI (SDI), -$0.11 (7.8%) to $1.30 on volume of 922,000 shares;
  • Virotec (VTI), -$0.03 (5.66%) to $0.50 on volume of 132,000 shares;
  • PEP Investment Fund Units (PIV), -$0.08 (5.52%) to $1.37 on volume of 373,000 shares;
  • Austral (AUO), -$0.03 (4.92%) to $0.58 on volume of 2.63m shares; and
  • Poor old Metabolic (MBP), -$0.06 (4.69%) to $1.22 on volume of 1.89m shares... was it really only a few sessions ago that the nuffnuffs, full of hope for the thinning of fatties and with stars in their eyes, bought at the ask (at the open) with all their might? As American teenagers say on internet forums...
Bwaahahahahaha. (I think that's an evil laugh)
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4029.4-8-0.2%0
XTLS&P/ASX 2021481.90.09%0
XFLS&P/ASX 503958-0.3-0.01%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003276.5-3.8-0.12%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004025.9-6.4-0.16%0
XKOS&P/ASX 3004030.6-6.5-0.16%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504019.7-30.2-0.75%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2268.6-15-0.66%0

All Ordinaries Market Internals

As might be expected with a load of property trusts going ex-div, the advance-decline numbers have been thrown somewhat into disarray - and the same is true of the volume stats. Still, book-squaring before the long weekend should see our market soft tomorrow, particularly in the afternoon.

XAOXSO
Advances15154
Declines216102
Advancing Volume94.36m46.05m
Declining Volume215.44m58.46m

Broad Market Internals

IndicatorLevel+/-%
Advances371-98-20.9
Declines4547519.79
Unchanged297-20-6.31
Total Traded Value1766-483-21.48
New 52 Week Highs35-27-43.55
New 52 Week Lows16-4-20
Equity Call Option Volume42226-21575-33.82
Equity Put Option Volume30580-2665-8.02

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Telecommunications which gained 0.28% to 1747.10 points. It;s hardly even a sector anymore, with only 2 stocks in the thing... today one of them went up, and one stayed where it was.

  • Telecom Nz Nz (TEL), +$0.10 (1.81%) to $5.62 on volume of 374,000 shares;
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), Unchanged at $4.89 on volume of 7.47m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Information Technology which gained 0.23% to 384.20 points. There was only one stock in the sector index that rose - Computershare - but it more than made up for the rest of the index...

  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.04 (0.71%) to $5.69 on volume of 822,000 shares;
  • ERG Ltd (ERG), unchanged at $0.29 on volume of 1.48m shares;
  • Infomedia (IFM), unchanged at $0.76 on volume of 937,000 shares;
  • Vision (VSL), unchanged at $1.27 on volume of 503,000 shares; and
  • IRESS (IRE), -$0.01 (0.26%) to $3.85 on volume of 110,000 shares.

The bronze today went to ASX200 ex Property Trusts which gained 0.11% to 4803.60 points. The sector was led by

  • Lend Lease (LLC), +$0.28 (2.17%) to $13.19 on volume of 560,000 shares;
  • FKP Ltd (FKP), +$0.07 (1.89%) to $3.77 on volume of 752,000 shares;
  • Oamps (OMP), +$0.02 (0.55%) to $3.67 on volume of 106,000 shares;
  • QBE Insurance (QBE), +$0.08 (0.54%) to $14.90 on volume of 550,000 shares; and
  • Westpac (WBC), +$0.10 (0.52%) to $19.38 on volume of 1.35m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Property Trusts which lost 1.06% to 1803.80 points - mostly due to straightforward ex-dividend adjustments, but also because some traders aren't aware of the dividend calendar and see the opening weakness as a technical break. Silly buggers...

The LPT sector was dragged lower by

  • BWP Trust (BWP), -$0.08 (4.28%) to $1.79 on volume of 91,000 shares;
  • Macquqarie Country (MCW), -$0.09 (4.15%) to $2.08 on volume of 2.17m shares;
  • Commnwealth Office (CPA), -$0.05 (3.82%) to $1.26 on volume of 1.46m shares;
  • DB Reef (DRT), -$0.05 (3.76%) to $1.28 on volume of 2.51m shares; and
  • Macquarie DDR (MDT), -$0.04 (3.48%) to $1.11 on volume of 997,000 shares.

Just in front of the last place on the sector table was Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.60% to 2440.30 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Ten Network (TEN), -$0.23 (5.24%) to $4.16 on volume of 2.55m shares; TEN went ex-div as well, and had no otehr substantive news. I wonder if there were just some resting stops that got hit as a reuslt of blindness with respect to the dividend calendar?
  • Colorado (CDO), -$0.28 (4.38%) to $6.12 on volume of 224,000 shares;
  • Macquarie Commercial Stapled (MCG), -$0.18 (3.15%) to $5.53 on volume of 788,000 shares;
  • APN News & Media (APN), -$0.13 (2.48%) to $5.12 on volume of 208,000 shares; and
  • Housewares (HWI), -$0.05 (1.89%) to $2.60 on volume of 42,000 shares.
Code GICS Sector Close +/- %
XTJ Telecommunications 1747.1 4.9 0.28%
XIJ Information Technology 384.2 0.9 0.23%
XXJ ASX200 ex Property Trusts 4803.6 5.2 0.11%
XHJ Healthcare 4572.9 3.2 0.07%
XUJ Utilities 4424.2 2.8 0.06%
XSJ Consumer Staples 5581.6 2.8 0.05%
XMJ Materials 6631.9 -6.2 -0.09%
XFJ Financials 4788.3 -7.4 -0.15%
XNJ Industrials 4835.5 -8.7 -0.18%
XEJ Energy 6965.3 -37.8 -0.54%
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2440.3 -14.7 -0.6%
XPJ Property Trusts 1803.8 -19.4 -1.06%

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
ZYL Zylotech 0.005 0..002 66.67%89.87m
CEUCA ConnectEast (LyingBRACKS) 0.670.011.52%74.62m
CUO Copperco 0.022 0.001 -4.35%29.66m
ADY Admiralty 0.07 0.003 -4.23%25.34m
TOX Tox Free 0.030.0120%25.18m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
HWE Henry Walker Eltin 0.510.0818.6%20m
UNWUnwired Group0.690.0915%906620
CMQChemeq1.240.1614.81%3.12m
IHG Intellect Holdings 0.033 0.002 6.45%180000
CAGCape Range0.039 0.002 5.41%461000

All Ordinaries Top Losers

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
BSOBass Strait Oil2.33-0.47-16.79%258702
MIG Macquarie Infrastructure 3.40 -0.62-15.42%7.77m
SDISDI Limited 1.30 -0.11-7.8%921965
ABIAmbri0.12-0.01-7.69%203060
CMKCumnock Coal 0.60 -0.05-7.69%11400

Elsewhere in the Region...

New Zealand had a pretty ordinary session, with not much happening - very narrow range. Unlike us, the Kiwis managed to squeak out a small gain for the day, with the NZSE adding 7.3 points. It traded briefly above 3000 intraday (but it has been as high as 3024.45), and was led by

  • Restaurant Brands (RBD), +$0.03 (2.38%) to $1.29 on volume of 9,000 shares;
  • Nuplex Industries (NPX), +$0.11 (1.97%) to $5.70 on volume of 27,000 shares;
  • Lion Nathan (LNN), +$0.16 (1.79%) to $9.10 on volume of 7,000 shares;
  • Cavalier Corporation (CAV), +$0.07 (1.58%) to $4.50 on volume of 3,000 shares;
  • Michael Hill International (MHI), +$0.10 (1.27%) to $8.00 on volume of 7,000 shares; and
  • NGC Holdings Limited (NGC), +$0.03 (1%) to $3.04 on volume of 582,000 shares.

Country Name Close +/- % Volume
New Zealand NZSE50 2998.758 7.3 0.24% -na-
Japan Nikkei 225 Closed (National Holiday)
Korea KOSPI 873.32 -10.06 -1.14% 235728
Singapore Straits Times 2052.82 -2.95 -0.14% 32.97m
Hong Kong Hang Seng 14160.75 9.67 0.07% 77.15m
Malaysia KLSE Comp 908.45 5.15 0.57% 15.8m

Main SFE Futures Contracts

CodeInstrumentClose+/-%Volume
SPI05M SPI200 Index SFE405050.12%8037
IR05M 90-day Bank Bills SFE94.6300%5976
YT05M 3-yr Bond SFE94.910.010.01%10099
XT05M 10-yr Bond SFE94.720.010.01%4762