Data Disconnect; Market Lower

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The SBS doco on Conrad Black last night was a laff riot. The very idea that he is supposedly a "genius", but that he found his intellectual equal in that unpalatable platycolpian (loook it up, Conrad) harridan Barbara Amiel, just had me in stitches. She was a teleprompter hag for God's sake!

Intellectuals don't have Imelda Marcos style shoe collections; overweeningly fake "mutton dressed as lamb" trollops do (seen Sex and the City?). You can give a slattern all the money in the world, but all they do is make themselves look more garish. Taki Theodorakopolous might have a soft spot for the Black-Amiel duumverate of excess, but I am at an absolute loss as to why.

And the fact that journalists are in awe of Black's rather pedestrian vocabulary, is yet another reason why James Dunn is the only journalist for whom I have any respect whatsoever.

Look at that... two paragraphs and I am disgressing already...

Economic Statistics

ICSC-UBS Same Store Sales fell by 1.5% and the year-on-year growth rate fell do 2.4%: try squaring that with the 5.1% growth in consumer spending in the GDP report (below). Admittedly, the comparison was a difficult one, given that last year people had fresh tax refund cheques (which they promptly spent, to the last penny... then they found another roughly 3% and spent that too).

The Redbook survey - which measures a similar type of spending but uses a different sample - showed only a 0.9% increase over the sme period last year.

Corporate Profits (excluding inventory and capital consumption adjustments - i.e., excluding depreciation) rose 9.5% for the quarter - which you might think is pretty fast. It still represents a significant (>2%) slowdown from the first quarter. Also, since NIPA (National Income and Product Account) numbers are almost uncorrelated with S&P earnings, it means nothing for the market. And of course, the NIPA numbers are seasonally (and politically) adjusted.

GDP data is not only seasonally adjusted, it is also hedonically adjusted - to the tune of an overstatement of real growth by over 1% a year, and an understatement of price inflaiton by the same proportion. The GDP revision showed a growth rate of 3.9%, with consumption spending up 5.1%. the consensus guess was looking for a rise of 3.7% in GDP.

Ask yourself how an economy that's supposedly growing at 3.5% is creating ZERO job growth (more accurately, is not creating enough jobs to bring the unemployment rate down). Can't find a sensible answer? That's OK... it's because the US is doing what the Soviet Union used to do - fudging its numbers. It keeps the sheep happy.

Within the GDP report, non-residential fixed investment (which is supposed to measure investment in plant and equipment, but includes things like software) rose an unbelievable 17.2% annualised. So you ought to ignore the data that show that non-defence capex ex aircraft is FALLING...

Prices continue to rise far less in the GDP report than they do in the real world: the GDP deflator was revised to show a 1.3% increase, while the "core" GDP deflator rose 1.7%. The inflation rate as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator remains at a 42-year low at 0.7%; tell that to anybody who's pension is indexed to the CPI, who now have farts that smell like dog food.

The consensus estimate for the Consumer Confidence Index was 96.0; the actual result was 90.5... yikes. 28% of respondents thought that jobs were difficult to acquire (which is at odds with the payrolls report last month which showed the easiest job conditions for three years).

Finally, the Chicago NAPM fell to 65.2 (from last month's 68.5). Within the index, the production component fell a staggering 14.1%. The employment section of the survey rose to the highest level in 16 years... indicating that the survey isn't worth reading.

This week's 4-week bill auction for $19 billion cleared at a yield of 2.035%, which is a 4 basis point rise in yield form last week's auction; the bid-to cover ratio was 2.26x compared to last week's 2.12x.

Forthcoming US Economic Data

Tomorrow's US Economic Data Calendar

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations did not enter the market last night.

Major US Indices

The DJIA lost 47.88 points (0.46%), closing out the day at 10428.02 points; the broader S&P500 dipped 4.75 points (0.4%), closing at 1173.82.

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite lost 10.06 points (0.48%), to close at 2096.81, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 8.94 points (0.57%), to end at 1571.5 points.

NYSE Volume was solid, with 1.55 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.87 billion shares crossing the tape.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10428.02	-47.88	-0.46%
S&P500	1173.82	-4.75	-0.4%
Nasdaq Composite	2096.81	-10.06	-0.48%
Nasdaq100	1571.5	-8.94	-0.57%
NYSE Volume	1.55bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.87bn	-	-
US 30-yr yld	5.01%	0.04%	0.74%

Market Breadth & Internals

On the NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 1933 to 1413, for a single-day A/D reading of -520; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1734 to 1385

NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 879.39 to 650.37 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 624.45 to 462.15 million shares.

220 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 2 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 178 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 9 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1413	1385
Decliners	1933	1734
Advancing Volume (m)	650.37	462.15
Declining Volume (m)	879.39	624.45
New Highs	220	178
New Lows	2	9

Market Sentiment

CBOE options volume still has not picked up to any extent after the holiday, and as a result the put-call ratio and option volume numbers are starting to gyrate a bit.

Everything still says "this market is maddeningly ebullient", even though the actual action in priceslooks very very tired.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Equity Call Volume (000)	470.77	-197.12	-29.51%
CBOE Equity Put Volume (000)	328.15	-31.11	-8.66%
CBOE Volatility Index	13.24	-0.06	-0.45%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	18.84	0.01	0.05%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.70	0.16	29.59%
10-day PCR	0.54	0	0%
SPX-VIX Ratio	88.66	0.04	0.05%

Bond Market Analysis

Hurray!!! 30-year bond yields finally got past 5%... it was the easiest thing to forecast in the world, but I was early by over two weeks.

Bonds fell along the curve, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 0.037 points to 5.012%. The 30-year bond futures fell to close at 111&3/32, a gain of just under $3000 per contract since the entry at 114&1/32, on margin of (I can't remember the bond margins, and can't be bothered to look it up... but it's a gain of over 100% of margin).

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 2Y (yld)	2.993	-0.06	-1.87%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.693	-0.007	-0.19%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.353	0.03	0.62%
UST 30Y (yld)	5.005	0.037	0.74%

The Banks Index lost 0.27 points (0.27%), to end the session at 101.17; within the index,

• the Derivative King - JPMorganChase gained $0.34 (0.91%) ending the day at $37.65; and
• Citigroup shed $0.21 (0.47%) at $44.75

The Broker-dealer Index declined 1.47 points (1.01%), to 144.4; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Merrill Lynch shed $0.56 (1%) to end the session at $55.71
• Morgan Stanley Dean Witter shed $0.38 (0.74%) to end the session at $50.75
• Goldman Sachs declined $0.32 (0.3%) to end the session at $104.76
• Lehman Brothers lost $0.74 (0.88%) to end the session at $83.78

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index shed 6.02 points (1.4%), at 423.87

• Triquint declined $0.01 (0.23%) at $4.33
• Micron Technology dipped $0.11 (0.98%) to end the session at $11.08
• Intel dipped $0.68 (2.95%) ending the day at $22.38
• Altera added $0.06 (0.27%) ending the day at $22.68
• JDS Uniphase rose $0.02 (0.63%) closing at $3.17

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold weakened by $2.10 (0.46%) to $451.20 per ounce - but held $450. The Gold Bugs Index lost 5.99 points (2.47%), closing at 236.94 points.

Silver fell by $0.05 (0.64%) to close at $7.72 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 3.28 points (2.98%), to 106.75 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	451.2	-2.1	-0.46%
Silver	7.715	-0.05	-0.64%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	106.75	-3.28	-2.98%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	236.94	-5.99	-2.47%

Oil Market

Oil lost ground, shedding $0.63 per barrel, closing at $49.06 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) advanced 1.66 points (0.22%), closing at 743.85 points while the Oil service stocks (OSX) Index dipped 0.26 points (0.21%), ending the day at 125.51 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	289.5	-0.5	-0.17%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	49.06	-0.63	-1.27%
AMEX Oil Index	743.85	1.66	0.22%
Oil Service Index	125.51	-0.26	-0.21%

Currency Markets

For a little while there, it looked like we were going to get that intervention I was looking for; the Yen ticked up strongly, and the Euro dived... but the US Dollar Index could not get its head out of the porridge - its session high was only 82.20.

This is starting to get serious. Every journalist and taxi driver is talking about dollar weakness, and thus the dollar is overdue for a significant bounce.

That said, the currencies that I said I would "bet against" at 82 on the USDX, have fallen the hardest recently; the Australian dollar in particular, following the Australian trade deficit figures and softer retail spending numbers. I don't give a crap about why it fell, just that it did what I thought it would... just kidding.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	81.82	-0.13	-0.16%
Euro	1.329	0.0017	0.13%
Yen	102.85	0.03	0.03%
Sterling	1.9106	0.0166	0.88%
Australian Dollar	0.7723	-0.0107	-1.37%
Swiss Franc	1.1398	-0.0021	-0.18%
Canadian Dollar	0.8431	-0.0006	-0.07%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index slid 26.86 points (0.71%), to 3753.75; the German DAX-30 Index lost 20.98 points (0.51%), closing at 4126 points; and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index dipped 46.6 points (0.98%), to end the session at 4703.2 points.

The EuroRant debuts tomorrow... it is a very very sexy thing.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	3753.75	-26.86	-0.71%
DAX-30	4126	-20.98	-0.51%
FTSE-100	4703.2	-46.6	-0.98%

Tonight's Pivots (US Futures Market)

	Dow	S&P500	Nasdaq	Bonds
R2	10519	1182.2	1591.67	111 26/32
R1	10484	1178.9	1584.33	111 15/32
Pivot	10458	1176.2	1578.17	111 4/32
S1	10423	1172.9	1570.83	110 25/32
S2	10397	1170.2	1564.67	110 14/32

OzRant: Looking for Short Entries...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Economic Statistics

The market's now-mindless optimism was dealt comething of a shock today with the release of much softer-than-expected economic data.

• Building Approvals were expected to be flat, but they actually fell by 2.4% - taking the total decline over the last 7 months to 16.4%;
• Retail Trade was expected to grow by 0.7%, but it contracted by the same amount (maybe they just got the sign wrong...);
• Market Crack Cocaine shipments (oops, I meant Consumer Credit) rose by 1.2% for the month and 13.9% year-on-year, while a subcomponent - lending for housing - rose 1% for the month.

All things considered (yesterday's Banana Repubic balance of trade, for example), this does not represent an economy that is in good fundamental shape; the only "good" indicator is that the government rapes more money off taxpayers than it wastes.

You might call that "fiscal prudence", but frankly that's crap. When 50c in almost every dollar of private sector income goes to the government in direct or indirect taxes, the government has absolutely no excuse to ever run a deficit.

Major Market Indices

Another record high... but it was a squeaker.

I read a piece of supposedly "institutional research" the other day - one that emanated from one of the newly-merged gangs of ticket-clippers. It sounded like it was written by the sales department, or someone from Danoz Direct or the Shopping Channel.

4000 is "just a matter of time"... blah blah blah.

Sure thing, dickhead - but then what?

Honestly, if that's the sort of output that insto readers are getting, what sort of dross do retail clients get?

I won't name names, ... sure I will. It was Goldman Sachs JB Were and if they had any dignity they would be ashamed ofthemselves. And you thought Merrill were wankers!

It is my hope that eventually brokers will get paid what they're worth - nothing - and that there will be one brokerage firm (let's call it TDGSMerrillWereOrdsMorganCommSecSanford) which will just be 3 PCs and a little chap with a funny accent to make sure they all run OK.

I'm digressing again...

XAO intraday 1-minute Chart - today...

As you can see from the chart, there were basically 2 "trades" during the day - one before lunch, and one after. Two little "moonshots" driven primarily by arb traders and some insto money. Any time apart from that was as boring as a brokers barbeque.

I have to consult with The Red Menace, but it smells to me like we are running out of gas; Christmas Rally be damned.

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	3942.8	4.7	0.12%	620.55m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2102.3	7.4	0.35%	131.11m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	3861.8	5	0.13%	271.31m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3190.9	4.6	0.14%	407.1m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	3931.3	4.5	0.11%	506.04m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	3940.2	4.4	0.11%	570.71m
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3868.9	9.4	0.24%	135.79m
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2308	-6.4	-0.28%	163.6m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

More stocks fell than rose - by a decent margin - but volume was tilted just as strongly to the gainers. Smells like "circling the wagons".

Advances	171
Declines	216
Advancing Volume (m)	332.27
Declining Volume (m)	225.77

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

WOW and CML had a rest after making multi-period highs yesterday, which dragged down the crappily-named "Consumer Staples" sector and weighed on the market more broadly as major Resources stocks also had a rest. Property Trusts were bought - another example of wagion-circling.

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XEJ	Energy	7162.6	-122	-1.67%	30.94m
XMJ	Materials	6577.7	12.5	0.19%	125.2m
XNJ	Industrials	4735.4	33.2	0.71%	80.52m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2338.5	10.6	0.46%	38.28m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5397.4	-40.8	-0.75%	36.6m
XHJ	Healthcare	4397.6	1.7	0.04%	10.97m
XFJ	Financials	4646.9	6.7	0.14%	141.24m
XIJ	Information Technology	371.3	0.9	0.24%	8.74m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1756.3	9.4	0.54%	29.68m
XUJ	Utilities	4275.2	-17.3	-0.4%	3.87m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1773.5	10.3	0.58%	60.54m
XXJ	ASX200 ex Property Trusts	4644.1	0.8	0.02%	80.7m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
NEO	Nuenco	0.044	-0.01	-15.38%	50.34m
LIO	Lion Energy	0.01	0	8.33%	48.25m
CUL	Cullen Resources	0.069	0.01	18.97%	44.11m
CAZ	Cazaly Rsc	0.65	0.38	136.36%	43.7m
QAN	Qantas	3.58	0.03	0.85%	39.93m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
SRI	Sipa Resources	0.15	0.03	25%	6.49m
HWE	Henry Walker Eltin	0.57	0.05	9.62%	7.91m
SRV	Servcorp	2.68	0.23	9.39%	50492
ALU	Altium	0.3	0.03	9.09%	817827
QPX	QPSX	0.14	0.01	7.69%	183299

All Ordinaries Top Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PSG	Palm Springs	0.15	-0.02	-9.09%	727000
UNI	Unitract	1.01	-0.09	-8.18%	459118
OMI	Occupational Med	1.4	-0.1	-6.67%	54915
CGX	Central Asia Gold	0.66	-0.04	-5.71%	113500
NHC	New Hope Corp	1.51	-0.09	-5.63%	203311

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei was soft after economic data showed that the Japanese economy was softer than expected. The Kiwi market was far more impressive than their cricket team (who really aren't a proper Test side; they are terrific at proper Rugby, but they - along with Bangladesh - should be chucked out of Test cricket).

The KOSPI was the best-performed market in the region, which is odd considering that South Korea is - by virtue of its proximity to North Korea - in a great deal of danger at present. perhaps traders in the South think that the Yanks are going to have their hands full with Iran for the foreseeable future.

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	2990.796	2.49	0.08%	25.3m
Japan	Nikkei 225	10899.25	-78.64	-0.72%	67671
Korea	KOSPI	878.06	12.66	1.46%	324596
Singapore	Straits Times	2040.56	1.84	0.09%	57.48m
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	14098.68	31.77	0.23%	579.71m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	911.6	-4.3	-0.47%	42.88m

Main SFE Futures Contracts

Code	Instrument	Close	+/-	%	Volume
SPI04Z	SPI200 Index SFE	3922	-13	-0.33%	17942
IR04Z	90-day Bank Bills SFE	94.72	0.04	0.04%	88574
YT04Z	3-yr Bond SFE	95.01	0.04	0.04%	108226
XT04Z	10-yr Bond SFE	94.77	0.01	0.01%	29077

Bonds Tank on "Flattening Unwinds"; Equities Soft on WMT.

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Economic Statistics

There was no economic data released during the US session - but tomorrow more than compensates any data-geek, with

• ICSC-UBS Store Sales
• Redbook Chain Store Sales
• GDP/Corporate Profits
• Consumer Confidence; and last but not least
• Chicago NAPM.

The consensus estimates for these can be found by clicking on "Tomorrow's US Economic Data Calendar".

Forthcoming US Economic Data Tomorrow's US Economic Data Calendar

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations last night:

• a $3billion, overnight repurchase with $0.2billion in T-backed collateral ; and
• a $3billion, 2-day repurchase with $0.5billion in T-backed collateral.

See that? Loads of repo ($6 bill) but bugger-all in the "good stuff" from the point of view of equity market traders.

I mentioned last week that the Agency market (for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bonds) seemed to be the latest hotspot, and now the Fed has to be concerned more broadly with the mortgage market; the bulk of the repurchases last night were in mortgage-backed collateral.

Those of you who are unaware of my views on Alan Greenspan know that I think he is like Paul Simon's One Trick Pony... give him any form of dislocation and he will thrown money at it. Unlike the pony in Simon's masterful song, one thing Greenspan does not remind me of is the following lyric

He makes it look so easy

Looks so clean

He moves like God's immaculate machine

He makes me think about all of these extra moves I make 'n'

all these herky-jerky motions

and the bag of tricks it takes

to get me through my working day....

One Trick Pony.

But I digress...

Major US Indices

Wal-Mart was the big disappointment last night, withthe worl's greatest sseller of Chinese imports letting the market know that it didn't have a great Thanksgiving holiday sales period. The stock got smacked for almost 4% as a result, and dragged the Dow down hard.

By the clsoe, the DJIA was down 46.33 points (0.44%), closing out the day at 10475.9 points; the broader S&P500 lost 4.08 points (0.34%), to end the session at 1178.57.

Over at Times Square, the tech party continues as the Nasdaq Composite added 4.9 points (0.23%), to close at 2106.87, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 2.18 points (0.14%), to end at 1580.44 points.

NYSE Volume was average, with 1.38 billion shares traded, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.84 billion shares crossing the tape.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10475.9	-46.33	-0.44%
S&P500	1178.57	-4.08	-0.34%
Nasdaq Composite	2106.87	4.9	0.23%
Nasdaq100	1580.44	2.18	0.14%
NYSE Volume	1.38bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.84bn	-	-
US 30-yr yld	4.98%	0.09%	1.78%

Market Breadth & Internals

On the NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 1904 to 1466, for a single-day A/D reading of -438; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1780 to 1328.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 789.51 to 574.51 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 630.21 to 412.24 million shares.

319 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 1 posted a fresh 52-week low, while on the Nasdaq there were 239 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 11 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1466	1780
Decliners	1904	1328
Advancing Volume (m)	574.51	630.21
Declining Volume (m)	789.51	412.24
New Highs	319	239
New Lows	1	11

Market Sentiment

Because of friday's short session, the put-call volume data are all over the shop; they will setttle down this week.

That said, the put-call ratio is still very stable at around 0.53/0.54 - far too effusive and call-o-centric... the CBOE, like many US services businesses, is becoming little more than a call centre (get it??).

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Equity Call Volume (000)	667.89	388.01	138.63%
CBOE Equity Put Volume (000)	359.26	208.97	139.05%
CBOE Volatility Index	13.3	0.51	3.99%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	18.83	0.89	4.96%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.54	0	0.18%
10-day PCR	0.54	0.0051	0.96%
SPX-VIX Ratio	88.61	-3.85	-4.17%

Bond Market Analysis

Last night saw two short-term bond auctions -

• the 3-month bill auction for $19bill, which cleare at a yield of 2.195% and a bid-to-cover of 2x - this was a 4-basis point increase in yield, accompanied by a drop in offer coverage (last week's bid-to-cover was pretty strong at 2.43x; and
• the 6-month bill auction (for $17bill)which cleared at 2.395% with a bid-to-cover of 1.97x. That's a 3 basis point yield increase, but at least the bid-to-cover improved from last week's 1.83x.

I've been calling for 30-year bond yields to hit 5% for a while now - almost two weeks - and the damned things have not complied. But last night they got real close.

After a pretty tame early session, bonds fell off a cliff: by the close, the front-month futures contract (December04) was down 1&4/32 to 111&17/32 (recall that I'm notionally short his vehicle at 114&1/32). The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose 8.7 basis points to 4.975%... close... so close to 5%!!

The fall was a bitperplexing given the absolute lack of data - although technically and fundamentally the bonds have been a "sell-on-any-bounce" proposition for two years.

A partial explanation was a major Asian player unwinding so-called "flattening" trades - where a trader will sell short maturities and buy longer-maturities (say, selling 2-year notes and buying 10-year bonds).

This is usually undertaken when someone thinks the yield curve is "too steep" - i.e., that it is pricing in too much inflation and economic growth. To my mind, the market is pricing in too much economic growth but not enough inflation; bonds should continue their tank, with my intermediate objective (likely to be reached in the first quarter of 2005) being 102 on the long bond, then 100 even. That will see long rates in the US at 6.5%.

The 10-year is also at an important juncture - its yield is currently 4.326%, and any move above 4.41% will be dynamite (because 4.41% is a technically important yield point). A breach of 4.41% for more than 2 sessions will see the 10-years fall hard, with their yield also targetting 5%. People are getting sick of lending the US money - end of story.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.046	0.02	0.83%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.7	0.07	1.93%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.326	0.1	2.32%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.968	0.081	1.66%

The Banks Index declined 0.01 points (0.01%), ending the day at 101.92; within the index,

• the Derivative King - JPMorganChase dipped $0.01 (0.03%) at $37.69; and
• Citigroup shed $0.10 (0.22%) to end the session at $45.42

The Broker-dealer Index gained 0.13 points (0.09%), ending the day at 145.93; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Merrill Lynch lost $0.08 (0.14%) at $56.53
• Morgan Stanley Dean Witter declined $0.23 (0.45%) to $51.12
• Goldman Sachs shed $0.16 (0.15%) at $104.84
• Lehman Brothers gained $0.28 (0.33%) closing at $84.80

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index dipped 2.67 points (0.62%), ending the day at 430.98

• Triquint advanced $0.04 (0.94%) closing at $4.31
• Micron Technology lost $0.08 (0.7%) to end the session at $11.40
• Intel slid $0.40 (1.69%) to $23.21
• Altera slid $0.34 (1.47%) ending the day at $22.75
• JDS Uniphase posted a rise of $0.03 (0.96%) to $3.16

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold strengthened by $4.50 (1%) to $453.80 per ounce. The Gold Bugs Index gained 6.18 points (2.61%), closing at 243.39 points.

Silver rose $0.17 (2.19%) to close at $7.78 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 2.66 points (2.48%), at 109.87 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	453.40	4.10	0.91%
Silver	7.785	0.172	2.26%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	110.03	0.16	0.15%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	242.93	-0.46	-0.19%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.26 per barrel, closing at $49.70 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) advanced 6.68 points (0.9%), to 745.38 points.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index added 0.03 points (0.02%), ending the day at 127.02

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	290	1.25	0.43%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	49.66	0.22	0.44%
AMEX Oil Index	742.19	-3.19	-0.43%
Oil Service Index	125.77	-1.25	-0.98%

Currency Markets

In line with my previous comments, the US Dollar is finding any downward movement to be "tough sledding" at 82; last night it made a marginally lower low, but stabilised and ended above 82 again.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	81.95	0.13	0.16%
Euro	1.327	-0.0027	-0.2%
Yen	102.83	0.33	0.32%
Sterling	1.8929	-0.0026	-0.14%
Australian Dollar	0.7829	-0.0075	-0.95%
Swiss Franc	1.1426	0.0043	0.38%
Canadian Dollar	0.8426	-0.0073	-0.86%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index slid 15.39 points (0.41%), ending the day at 3782.2; the German DAX-30 Index dipped 6.08 points (0.15%), at 4154.27; and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index added 8.3 points (0.18%), to end the session at 4749.8 points.

For those interested in European markets, I will be launching "EuroRant" later this week, with a full wrap of major European markets (maybe even the MIBTel if I can be bothered) including a daily European Futures Preview.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	3780.61	-1.59	-0.04%
DAX-30	4146.98	-7.29	-0.18%
FTSE-100	4749.8	8.3	0.18%

Tonight's Pivots (US Futures Market)

	Dow	S&P500	Nasdaq	Bonds
R2	10652	1195.33	1608.5	113 8/32
R1	10578	1188.17	1595.5	112 11/32
Pivot	10497	1180.33	1582	111 27/32
S1	10423	1173.17	1569	110 30/32
S2	10342	1165.33	1555.5	110 14/32

Another Record... Thundering Hooves...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Late, late late... spent the day looking at some footage which, if it ever saw a courtroom, would be make for the most explosive session in the history of Australian jurisprudence. I said at the time, no retard can shoot that good.

It was a "green number" day for much of the resources sector - particularly Energy-related stocks, which was among the hottest market sectors, gaining 1.04% for the day.

WMC Resources (WMR) continues to benefit from the board's refusal to accept the XStrata bid (which values the company at $7.4 billion, or $6.35 a share); the shares finished unchanged at $7.26, having been as high as $7.32 (a gain of 0.8%). People are still punting on the arrival of some other White Knight, or an improved offer from XStrata... XStrata should ust tell the WMR board to get stuffed, and see how their stock options go... but since senior executives around the globe are as thick as theives, it's unlikely.

Rio Tinto (RIO) rose 0.56% to $9.16 after being down earlier in the session, while BHP Billiton (BHP) fell 0.77% to $15.28, after rising a lazy 8% last week after its buyback was announced.

Why a buyback? Why not a special dividend? Answer: executive options.

If you give shareholders cash in the form of dividends, nothing much happens to the stock price as a result, and the bucketloads of options in the executive compensation system simply stagnate. These options, it must be remembered, represent a hugely leveraged, one-sided bet on the stock price, which encourages risky behaviour and short-term, stock-price focussed planning.

A buyback, on the other hand, gives investors a sense that there is a "Management Put" - similar to the "Greenspan Put" from when folks believed in central-wanker omniscience - whereby downside risk to the stock price is mitigated by the fact that there is an unnaturally large bid for the stock as a result of the buyback.

Also on the buyback rumour mill, talk that Fosters Group (FGL) would rather waste company cash on buying back almost 10% of its issued stock - $1 billion worth - in preference to giving people tax-effective distributions in the form of dividends (there's that executive options package thing again) gave FGL legs to the tune of 2.8% with the stock rising to $5.50 - a new 52 week high (in fact, the highest level in three years).

Retailers like Woolworths (WOW +1.8% to $15.09) and Coles-Myer (CML, +1.4% to $10.03) helped the Consumer Staples sector to shine.

Consumer Staples... God stab my vitals. Wasn't it better before they introduced these wanker sector labels? What was wrong with Coles being a retail stock? Does Myer or Grace Brothers sell "staples"? The marketing-degree-holding dickhead who introduced GICS to the ASX should be hung by his feet in the town square, a la Mussolini.

Major Market Indices

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	3938.1	15.2	0.39%	473.67m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2094.9	10	0.48%	92.6m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	3856.8	16	0.42%	155.9m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3186.3	12.3	0.39%	255.09m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	3926.8	14.7	0.38%	354.97m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	3935.8	14.3	0.36%	419.27m
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3859.5	7.1	0.18%	99.19m
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2314.4	3.9	0.17%	164.18m

Market Internals

Although the All Ords rose an apparently-solid 0.38% to a new high, the market breadth contracted slightly, with advancers and decliners in equal numbers within the index.

Volume was concentrated in the advancers by about 5:3 (252m to 153m), with a solid 23million shares volume in Telstra - about 10% of advancing volume in one stock.

Advances	197
Declines	197
Advancing Volume (m)	251.68
Declining Volume (m)	153.22

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XEJ	Energy	7284.6	75.1	1.04%	34.03m
XMJ	Materials	6565.2	-17.1	-0.26%	85.72m
XNJ	Industrials	4702.2	18.8	0.4%	37.81m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2327.9	20.6	0.89%	30.26m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5438.2	76.6	1.43%	28.21m
XHJ	Healthcare	4395.9	12.1	0.28%	7.36m
XFJ	Financials	4640.2	9.8	0.21%	98.93m
XIJ	Information Technology	370.4	4.1	1.12%	4.51m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1746.9	22.4	1.3%	23.69m
XUJ	Utilities	4292.5	-25.5	-0.59%	4.45m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1763.2	1	0.06%	46.04m
XXJ	ASX200 ex Property Trusts	4643.3	11.8	0.25%	52.88m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TLS	Telstra	4.91	0.06	1.24%	23.15m
NLX	Nylex Ltd	0.4	0.01	2.6%	16.53m
MUL	Multiemedia Com	0.032	0	0%	15.03m
HHG	HHG Plc	1.17	0.01	0.86%	14.53m
HDR	Hardman Rsc	1.85	-0.12	-6.09%	14.16m

All Ordinaries Top 5 % Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
BBB	B Digital	0.45	0.05	11.11%	524762
HWE	Henry Walker Elt	0.52	0.05	10.64%	9.48m
SST	Steamships Tradg	3.2	0.3	10.34%	2300
PME	Pro Medicus	1.21	0.11	10%	210600
ARQ	Arc Energy	1.38	0.09	6.98%	1.31m

All Ordinaries Top 5 % Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PEPR	Peplin Rights	0.011	-0.01	-45%	1.68m
SSS	Sam's Seafood	1.2	-0.2	-14.29%	110075
ALK	Alkane	0.19	-0.02	-7.32%	682358
IHG	Intellect Hldgs	0.04	0	-6.98%	3.37m
TIR	Titan Rsc	0.21	-0.02	-6.67%	640500

Elsewhere in the Region...

It was Monday... we are all Americans now...

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	2988.304	19.81	0.67%	15.42m
Japan	Nikkei 225	10977.89	144.14	1.33%	73906
Korea	KOSPI	865.4	7.28	0.85%	315897
Singapore	Straits Times	2037.93	9.5	0.47%	70.32m
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	14092.86	197.83	1.42%	182.05m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	913.47	4.69	0.52%	75.44m

Main SFE Futures Contracts

Code	Instrument	Close	+/-	%	Volume
SPI04Z	SPI200 Index SFE	3939	13	0.33%	9093
IR04Z	90-day Bank Bills SFE	94.68	0.05	0.05%	60633
YT04Z	3-yr Bond SFE	94.98	0.04	0.04%	73633
XT04Z	10-yr Bond SFE	94.77	0.03	0.03%	18895

A Higher Risk SPP, in a Rising Sector

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Note: according to the announcement (which I've stored here) , the last date to purchase shares to participate in this SPP was Friday - however if it supposed to be available to shareholders at record date of 2 Dec and the ASX actually runs T+3 clearance, then Monday purchases should be on the registry at record date.

If not, noises should be made - loud and long - that the ASX always makes sure investors accounts are debited on T+3, but doesn't reciprocate in actual transfer of ownership of stock... typical aymmetry, aka "shaft the client".

Also, I question the probity of announcing an SPP on a date after investors have an opportunity to become shareholders by the record date for the SPP.

But anyway, on to the matter at hand...

SPP - Perserverance Corporation

Gold has broken out decisively (in USD terms) and thoughts of large pullbacks have to be shelved - for the time being.

I remain convinced that it is currently too easy to make money buying Euro and Gold against USD; buying every pullback is something that any idiot can do, and most idiots I know of aren't well off.

That said, the fundamentals for gold are solid - the governments of the western world are playing "race to the bottom" with competitive devaluation (i.e.., they are printing their currencies at mad rates which do not yet show up in "headline" inflation or bond prices, but which are reflected in commodity prices). So long as a gold stock is not a "hollow log", and so long as they don't engage in stupid forward sales, stocks in the gold sector appear poised for further gains.

In this environment, the SPP that was discovered by The Red Menace (OmegaOil), although representing a relatively small premium to last traded price, is in a sector which has a high probabililty of out-performance.

The stock in question is Perserverance Corporation (ASX Code: PSV). The share purchase plan offers shareholders at the record date (Thursday, 2 December 2004 - i.e., next Thursday) to acquire up to $5000 worth of stock at a price of 37c (last traded price was 39c).

Again, a single share is sufficient to become entitled to the offer; the offer is only at a 5.1% premium to the last traded price.

SPV daily Chart - past year...

The stock just broke out to a new 52-week high, after announcing increases in resources and reserves at its Fosterville operations on November 10th.

The Invasion of Iraq: Dollar vs Euro

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Although posted at an obscure site, this piece encapsulates several important themes -

• the emerging consensus of "US-as-moocher";
• the economic necessity for the US to take military action if necessary to forestall any moves to abandon US-denominated trade in oil; and
• the mechanism by which US-dollar hegemony arose in the first place (which has much to do with the US-led bombing of European infrastructure during WWII).

A very worthwhile read...

The Invasion of Iraq: Dollar vs Euro Re-denominating Iraqi oil in U. S. dollars, instead of the euro

And as usual, Fred Reed is absolutely on FIRE this week...

NY POETS Day

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

POETS is an acronym, which stands for "P!$$ Off Early - Tomorrow's Saturday". It was a half day on the stock and bond markets, the gold and oil markets on COMEX were closed all day.

Economic Statistics

There was no economic data during the shortened session - the Money Supply data that is due out today, is not released until 4:30 NY time: by that time I hope to be back to sleep for an hour or so.

Forthcoming US Economic Data Tomorrow's US Economic Data Calendar

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation last night:

• a $6.75billion, 6-day repurchase with $2.6billion in T-backed collateral .

Again, a large repo which is centred more on the Agency market: the Agency market is where the foolhardy trade bonds of the "lenders of last resort" to the US housing bubble - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Call me a cynic, but I don't think there is any reason for Agency spreads to be stable at this point (although to remain stable last night, yields on the bonds had to tick up anyhow, because Treasuries fell).

Fannie & Freddie bonds only yield between 9 and 21 basis points over similar-duration Treasuries - when in reality they are junk.

These folks are the major part of an industry that will write a mortgage for any client with a pulse, at 95% of property value - when property values are massively inflated in every locality that's worth living in.

They are referred to as "government sponsored" (as it turns out, so was LTCM when it came to the crunch... free market capitalism is great if you've got chums at the Fed). Still that doesn't mean that the government will honor FNM and FRE bonds at 100% of face value in any future bailout.

Major US Indices

A shortened session, but one with an interesting "twist".

Without any repo grease to get the party started, the market's early gains fizzled.

The gains seemed to be partially generated by a small bounce in the dollar - from its low of 81.83 on the USDX - which was in turn mostly due to a nasty, nuffie-slamming drop of over 1c in the Euro (see the "Currencies" below for more information on that).

Anyway... the more interesting thing was how hard the index futures tanked after the phycial market had closed.

Equities closed a little above unchanged - enough people were dumb enough to be prepared to hold stocks over the weekend. Smarter money waited until the equities market couldn't respond, and the index futures had a one-way sleigh ride right to their closing bell. It wan't a big drop, but it was pretty telling.

I've tried to line up the Dow (top) and Dow future (bottom) charts so that their timescales are aligned. They're 1-minute charts, just to get a really good handle on precisely when important things happened. Notice what happened pretty much as soon as the last stock trade was processed...

DJIA and Dow Futures, 5 minute intraday...

By the close of the equities market, it looked like a "wash"...the DJIA gained 1.92 points (0.02%), closing out the day at 10522.23 points; the broader S&P500 advanced 0.89 points (0.08%), ending the day at 1182.65.

The Nasdaq Composite slid a barely-perceptible 0.57 points (0.03%), to close at 2101.97, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 4.29 points (0.27%), to end at 1578.26 points.

NYSE Volume was modest, with 0.5 billion shares crossing the tape, while Nasdaq Volume was also pretty low, with 0.67 billion shares crossing the tape. Remember though, this was only a half-session.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10522.23	1.92	0.02%
S&P500	1182.65	0.89	0.08%
Nasdaq Composite	2101.97	-0.57	-0.03%
Nasdaq100	1578.26	-4.29	-0.27%
NYSE Volume	0.5bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	0.67bn	-	-
US 30-yr yld	4.89%	0.05%	0.99%

Market Breadth & Internals

On the NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1862 to 1222 for a single-day A/D reading of 640; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1688 to 1211. SO while it was only a half-day, that didn't mean that stock bulls were only half-excited.

The press is now full of tripe about how the rally is "likely to continue for another 2-3 weeks without stopping" - as good an indication of a swing high as you need... the only better short-selling tip would be for some crowningly incompetent clown (like, say, Alan Greenspan) to tell you to buy stocks.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 307.54 to 188.6 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 248.4 to 144.11 million shares. Again, don't look too hard at the numbers - it was a short session.

338 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 1 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 150 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 11 which fell to fresh 52-week lows

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1862	1688
Decliners	1222	1211
Advancing Volume (m)	307.54	248.4
Declining Volume (m)	188.6	144.11
New Highs	338	150
New Lows	1	11

Market Sentiment

The put-call ratio - although based on only half a days turnover - are still remarkably consistent with recent readings at about 0.54 (that compares with the 10-day average at 0.53).

VIX - still too low, indicating that the market is being "given its head" (as we horsey types say when you leave the bit loose), in order for the nuffies to be handed their heads (get it?!) down the track a little.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Equity Call Volume (000)	279.89	-446.43	-61.47%
CBOE Equity Put Volume (000)	150.29	-334.4	-68.99%
CBOE Volatility Index	12.79	0.12	0.95%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.94	-0.49	-2.66%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.54	-0.13	-19.53%
10-day PCR	0.53	-0.0091	-1.68%
SPX-VIX Ratio	92.47	-0.43	-0.46%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell quite charply along the curve after a pronouncement by the Bank of China (or one of its funcitonaries) about China's foreign exchange reserves.

I have said it for a long time - that one of these days the Chinese government was going to get fed up with subsidising US economic mooching, and would look elsewhere for a new trading pal (and stop buying US Treasuries as a result).

The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose 4.9 basis points to 4.888% (which is an odd coincidence since 888 is a very lucky number when translated into Chinese). The 5% mark is now more than a week overdue, but two more days like this and it's there.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.009	0.07	2.24%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.628	0.052	1.45%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.226	0.04	1%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.886	0.049	1.01%

The Banks Index lost 0.01 points (0.01%), closing at 101.92; within the index,

• the Derivative King - JPMorganChase declined $0.01 (0.03%) closing at $37.69; and
• Citigroup slid $0.10 (0.22%) closing at $45.42

The Broker-dealer Index gained 0.13 points (0.09%), to end the session at 145.93; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Merrill Lynch declined $0.08 (0.14%) at $56.53
• Morgan Stanley Dean Witter slid $0.23 (0.45%) ending the day at $51.12
• Goldman Sachs declined $0.16 (0.15%) closing at $104.84
• Lehman Brothers added $0.28 (0.33%) ending the day at $84.80

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index declined 2.67 points (0.62%), to end the session at 430.98

• Triquint gained $0.04 (0.94%) at $4.31
• Micron Technology dipped $0.08 (0.7%) to end the session at $11.40
• Intel slid $0.40 (1.69%) ending the day at $23.21
• Altera dipped $0.34 (1.47%) ending the day at $22.75
• JDS Uniphase posted a rise of $0.03 (0.96%) to end the session at $3.16

Gold & Silver Markets

Depending who you ask, Gold did and didn't break $450 last night. Kitco's little screen bug (seen all over the net) shows spot trading at above $450 at the close, and that's good anough for me. My "point of reference" is always the futures market, and ComEx was closed on Thursday and Friday.

The Gold Bugs Index gained 6.18 points (2.61%), to end the session at 243.39 points. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 2.66 points (2.48%), to 109.87 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold		Closed
Silver		Closed
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	109.87	2.16	2.01%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	243.39	6.39	2.7%

Oil Market

The NYMEx Oil market was also closed, so there's no pricing for WTI Crude either.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) gained 6.68 points (0.9%), to end the session at 745.38, while the Oil service stocks (OSX) Index gained 0.03 points (0.02%), at 127.02 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB		CLOSED
Crude Oil Light Sweet		CLOSED
AMEX Oil Index	745.38	11.44	1.56%
Oil Service Index	127.02	1.91	1.53%

Currency Markets

Here is where all the interesting things happened.

The Euro broke 1.33, hitting a high of 1.3330, after the unfortunately-amusingly-named Yu Yongding - an advisor to the Chinese Central bank - stated that the rate of growth of Chinese USD reserves was slowing and that they had fallen to $180 billion in the latest data.

"Well," thought the currency screen... "a Chinaman said it, and it's about China. This bloke must have the ear of Chariman Mao!"

So the USD tanked, the Euro (the "next big thing" for reserve currencies) spiked above 1.33, and everybody held their breath.

The aforementioned Dr Yu then hurriedly mentioned that he wasn't speaking on behalf of the Chinese government, and that the figures he quoted were from Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data that's three months old now.

"What's that?" said the 20-somethings manning currency desks around the globe. "Mao hasn't been alive since before I was born? Who is this Yu Yongding guy then? What? There's a billion of 'em?"

What this shows, is how little this data gets read; if the entire global foreign exchange market can be moved by an unknown Chinaman talking about last quarter's publicly available data, you know that the market is chock-a-block with nuffnuffs.

Anyhow, once the requisite soothing noises had been made, the Euro plummeted over 1.25 cents... there wil be a few nuffnuffs who are a bit poorer this morning.

The US dollar index fell through my 82 bounce target on Dr Yu's comments, hitting 81.83. Five minutes later it had bounced back to 82.45 - so any "punt" at 82 was nicely in the money almost immediately.

But that's not where it ended - that would be far too easy. From there on, it was a slow bleed for the rest of the session for the USD. It finished at 81.83 - a new closing low for the year. A new intraday low of 81.78 was set a few minutes before the close. And the Euro - after falling from 1.3330 all the way to 1.3182 - recovered to close within 10 pips of 1.33 again, settling at 1.3292. If you were on the right side of all that, there was a small fortune in the offing... but very few people would have gotten it right.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	81.82	-1.17	-1.41%
Euro	1.3294	0.0206	1.57%
Yen	102.52	-0.77	-0.75%
Sterling	1.8958	0.0271	1.45%
Australian Dollar	0.7902	0.0046	0.59%
Swiss Franc	1.1384	-0.0194	-1.68%
Canadian Dollar	0.8503	0.007	0.83%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index slid 15.39 points (0.41%), to end the session at 3782.2; the German DAX-30 Index declined 6.08 points (0.15%), ending the day at 4154.27 and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index dipped 11.9 points (0.25%), to end the session at 4741.5 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	3782.2	-15.39	-0.41%
DAX-30	4154.27	-6.08	-0.15%
FTSE-100	4741.5	-11.9	-0.25%

Monday's Pivots (US Futures Market)

	Dow	S&P500	Nasdaq	Bonds
R2	10569	1189.93	1594.33	112 26/32
R1	10540	1185.37	1585.67	112 23/32
Pivot	10522	1182.93	1581.33	112 20/32
S1	10493	1178.37	1572.67	112 17/32
S2	10475	1175.93	1568.33	112 14/32

Another SPP to Take Advantage Of...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Hot on the heels of yesterday's Share Purchase Plan (SPP) for Virax Holdings (ASX: VHL), The Red Menace has trawaled through the announcements and found another one.

This one's over a pretty volatile and thinly-traded stock, so it's not for the faint-hearted.

D'Aguilar Gold Limited (ASX:DGR) announced an SPP tonight, with the shares offered at 7.5c ith a maximum allocation of 66,666 shares (i.e., $5k). the last traded price for DGR was 9c.

The stock has been in a pretty steady downtrend, punctuated by bursts of buying... in other words, it's a typical gold speccie.

It's had a couple of dips down to the 8c level over the last 12 months, but that level has held - but I wouldn't call it "support" per se.

The record date for the SPP has not yet been released - but at present the only eligibility requirement is to be a registered shareholder. Again, purchase of ONE share will entitle folks to participate in an issue which is taking place at 16.7% discount to the current share price.

If the share price holds its current level for the duration of the SPP, a $5000 allocation in the SPP would be sold for exactly $6,000 - a 20% gain over a very short holding period (usually a couple of weeks)

An image of the announcement is stored at this link.

OzRant: These Records are Getting Old...

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First, some pre-Rant ranting...

Did anybody see how the Productivity Commission spent a fortune of tax-rape-victim's money to show that demographic trends spell the death of Social Security in its current form?

God Stab my Vitals... all they had to do was wait for me to write about it (in this very space, about 2 days ago) and they could've sacked all those half-wits they employ. Plus, there would've been less pansy-assed equivocation in the analysis.

Are they a sheltered workshop, or what? Talk about statingthe bloody obvious. What's next? A $10 million study to discover that it rarely rains in Camooweal?

Major Market Indices

Another day, another record. Everybody is now engaged in a game of pass the parcel - and hope nobody hears the ticking.

A lot of this is driven my "me-too"-ism in the funds mis-management industry; these overpaid duds face limited futures if they deviate from the crowd (unless they outperform, which is so unlikely as to be not worth considering)... so basically every "active" equities manager is basically an index manager with a couple of "overweights".

Like the clown who used to run portfolios for BT, and wound up with 120 million One.Tel shares; then finds out that if you're managing a supertanker you can't just get out when the thing turns. Still, he left with a 7-figure golden parachute, and only the unitholders were unhappy.

The index started out looking a bit sad, but changed its mind (in a big way) at about 10:30 a.m. Australian time. Little do they know that the US is about to change its mind, unless I miss my guess...

All Ordinaries (ASX:XAO) 5-minute intraday chart

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	3922.9	8.1	0.21%	629.04m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2084.9	6.4	0.31%	159.43m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	3840.8	10.2	0.27%	292.98m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3174	8	0.25%	397.92m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	3912.1	7.9	0.2%	510.85m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	3921.5	7.7	0.2%	582.08m
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3852.4	7	0.18%	104.95m
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2310.5	-9.4	-0.41%	184.16m

Market Internals (All Ordinaries Stocks)

Despite the headline numbers, more stocks in the All Ords fell than rose for the session. Volume was concentrated in the gainers by a ratio of 32 to 19.

Advances	178
Declines	184
Advancing Volume	320035434
Declining Volume	190138334

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The continued strength in oil prices - and the "dumb money" trying to buy BHP at a high - gave some additional pep to the Energy and Materials sectors, while the higher-risk (by assumption rather than analysis) Information Tech sector was the worst performed.

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XEJ	Energy	7209.5	72.2	1.01%	50.53m
XMJ	Materials	6582.3	30.8	0.47%	158.58m
XNJ	Industrials	4683.4	-10.2	-0.22%	66.4m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2307.3	-2.9	-0.13%	42.75m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5361.6	50	0.94%	41.57m
XHJ	Healthcare	4383.8	43.2	1%	10.86m
XFJ	Financials	4630.4	-1.8	-0.04%	104.79m
XIJ	Information Technology	366.3	-3.1	-0.84%	5.57m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1724.5	14	0.82%	25.11m
XUJ	Utilities	4318	-5.4	-0.12%	4.69m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1762.2	7.3	0.42%	41.98m
XXJ	ASX200 ex Property Trusts	4631.5	-7.8	-0.17%	62.81m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

It looks like it's official - BHP Billiton is the new News Corpse. Obviously having an overseas listed analog yields arb possibilities - of which more at some future date.

Telstra's insto shareholders appear to be over their little hissy-fit about Ziggy Stardust's non-exit. Considering that TLS generates the largest free cash flow of any stock listed, they ought to have been positioning themselves in it, regardless of which quasi-politician is at "the helm".

To guess the rest of the major turnover list is hardly an IQ test; large-cap oil & gas stocks and gold stocks.

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
BHP	BHP Billiton	15.4	0.23	1.52%	31.36m
TLS	Telstra	4.85	0.04	0.83%	22.94m
WMR	WMC Resources	7.26	0.01	0.14%	21.4m
STO	Santos	8.86	0.05	0.57%	19.89m
LHG	Lihir Gold	1.30	0.01	0.78%	19.03m

All Ordinaries Top 5 % Gainers

The fast-gainers are all the types of stocks that have gone gangbusters in recent months; fast moving, thinly (relatively) traded... good for a pump in a chat-room.

The fact that this sort of crap has re-surfaced is yet another indication of an impending market top.

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PWT	Powertel	1.47	0.18	13.95%	562186
PEPR	Peplin Rights	0.02	0.002	11.11%	491070
BBB	B Digital	0.405	0.03	8%	465080
LYC	Lynas Corp	0.38	0.03	7.04%	421076
MOS	Mosaic Oil	0.255	0.02	6.25%	10m

All Ordinaries Top 5 % Losers

Man, HWE has taken an absolute hammering in recent times; have a look at the chart...

Henry Walker Eltin (ASX:HWE) Daily Chart

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
HWE	Henry Walker Eltin	0.47	-0.04	-7.84%	13.3m
ALK	Alkane	0.21	-0.02	-6.82%	324862
AGX	Agenix	0.58	-0.04	-6.45%	520997
PSV	Persever Corp	0.39	-0.02	-4.88%	4.17m
EOS	Electro Optic	3.35	-0.15	-4.29%	37350

Elsewhere in the Region...

With the exception of the Nikkei and the KOSPI, the region had another pretty good day.

The Japanese seem to be acclimatising the the reality of a stronger Yen, although exprters were not particularly strong.

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	2968.493	9.46	0.32%	23.5m
Japan	Nikkei 225	10846.86	-53.48	-0.49%	53683
Korea	KOSPI	858.83	-13.66	-1.57%	260186
Singapore	Straits Times	2040.34	5.46	0.27%	35.9m
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	13971.51	44.9	0.32%	217.53m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	910.12	4.9	0.54%	66.09m

Main SFE Futures Contracts

Code	Instrument	Close	+/-	%	Volume
SPI04Z	SPI200 Index SFE	3922	10	0.26%	9208
IR04Z	90-day Bank Bills SFE	94.63	0.01	0.01%	80404
YT04Z	3-yr Bond SFE	94.94	-0.01	-0.01%	90373
XT04Z	10-yr Bond SFE	94.74	0	0%	27922

Australian Economic Data Calendar

I have not been able to access the consensus estimates for next week's data; I will update this table as soon as I can to provide the consensus guess for each item

Monday, November 29, 2004
Local/GMT/ET	Period	Data	Expected	Previous%
1130/0030/1930	3Q	Current Account		-$11.97B
1130/0030/1930	3Q	Company Profits		10.3%
1130/0030/1930	3Q	Business Inventories		1.1%

Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Local/GMT/ET	Period	Data	Expected	Previous%
1130/0030/1930	Oct	Building Approvals	-na-	-3.8%
1130/0030/1930	Oct	Retail Trade	-na-	0.8%
1130/0030/1930	Oct	Private Sector Credit	-na-	0.9%