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Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.
- a $8billion, overnight repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral; and
- a $6billion, 14-day repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral.
Major US Indices
I blathered on about bias change the other day, and gave a second hint yesterday by waffling about the intraday double top; the major indices have obliged by reversing nicely. Is this the start of something more gut-wrenching? Who knows. It's still my solid expectation that some real carnage is just around the corner; not necessarily that US Foreign Policy will yield another crop of poisoned fruit for US civilians, but not necessarily not, either.
The only thing that fails to line up, is the options market - it's the only sentiment indicator that's not "off the charts" with bullishness. It's unlikely that options buyers have gotten smart after 100 years of getting torched consistently, so the high put-call ratio is a minor something to chafe over for bears. (Given options expiration, put-call ratios tend to be a bit out of whack though).
Notice also how the huge quantities of repurchase funds didn't do anything to help the market? No 10-o'clock jamjob; nada. That's usually surprising, but the recent rally was getting long in the tooth and nothing "bats 1000".
Still, the US indices all did as expected in the (now long-past) Sentiment Brief from a couple of weeks ago; they rose to overbought on weekly charts again, then reversed once weekly and daily were in synch. The next Sentiment Brief goes out tomorrow night, and it's interesting and informative to see how soon after hitting overbought, the indices reversed on little or no news.
The DJIA dipped 80.62 points (0.74%), closing out the day at 10754.26 points; within the blue-chip index, 6 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Alcoa (AA +1.44% to $31.04) and Pfizer (PFE +0.44% to $25.06). Losers in the Dow numbered 24 and were led by Intel (INTC -2.11% to $23.63) and Honeywell (HON -1.48% to $37.92); Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 320.6m shares to 64.9m.
The broader S&P500 declined 9.59 points (0.79%), to end the session at 1200.75. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite slid 26.09 points (1.25%), to close at 2061.34, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 23.12 points (1.5%), to end at 1519.29 points.
NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.58 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.96 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| DJIA | 10754.26 | -80.62 | -0.74% |
| S&P500 | 1200.75 | -9.59 | -0.79% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2061.34 | -26.09 | -1.25% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1519.29 | -23.12 | -1.5% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.58bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.96bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 1.30% due largely in the pronounced weakness in those toxic financial time bombs, Fannie and Freddie.
- General Electric (GE) -$0.19 (0.52%) to $36.03;
- Citigroup (C) -$0.38 (0.77%) to $48.80;
- Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.10 (0.19%) to $52.70;
- I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.87 (0.92%) to $93.75;
- Intel (INTC) -$0.51 (2.11%) to $23.63;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.26 (1.47%) to $17.45;
- eBay (EBAY) -$0.33 (0.76%) to $42.72;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -$1.41 (2.27%) to $60.61; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -$1.99 (3.02%) to $63.90.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 2228 to 1108, for a single-day A/D reading of -1120; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 2123 to 1006.
On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1093.5 to 456.5 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 1587.5 to 358.2 million shares.
297 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 16 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 100 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 32 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 1108 | 1006 |
| Decliners | 2228 | 2123 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 456.49 | 358.23 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 1093.52 | 1587.47 |
| New Highs | 297 | 100 |
| New Lows | 16 | 32 |
Market Sentiment
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 11.77 | 0.67 | 6.04% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 17.53 | 0.11 | 0.63% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.82 | 0.19 | 30.16% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.67 | 0.03 | 5.36% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 102.02 | -7.0218 | -6.44% |
Bond Market Analysis
The March05 30-year bond futures (ZB05H) - declared as a good shot on the short side above 117 about a week or so ago - fell another 15/32 and at one stage traded as low as 114 & 19/32; at that level the short position was up nearly $2500 per contract (that's well over 100% on the required margin of $1755). By the close the contract was still trading below 115 (at 114 & 25/32) and those who took the trade were in the green to the tune of $2200.
Bonds fell at the long end of the curve, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising another 5.1 basis points to 4.573%.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.527 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.35 | -0.04 | -1.18% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 3.777 | 0 | -0.13% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.185 | 0.027 | 0.65% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.573 | 0.051 | 1.13% |
The Banks Index dipped 0.94 points (0.93%), to 100.43; within the index,
- Golden West Financial (GDW) -$1.39 (2.19%) to $62.11;
- Bank Of NY (BK) -$0.65 (2.14%) to $29.76;
- MBNA Corp (KRB) -$0.43 (1.64%) to $25.73;
- Northern Trust (NTRS) -$0.68 (1.56%) to $43.02; and
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -$0.55 (1.47%) to $36.78.
The Broker-dealer Index dipped 1.53 points (1.01%), closing at 149.65; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Jeffries Group (JEF) -$0.71 (1.8%) to $38.71;
- Raymond James (RJF) -$0.50 (1.59%) to $30.89;
- Goldman Sachs (GS) -$1.67 (1.49%) to $110.60;
- Bear Stearns (BSC) -$1.47 (1.44%) to $100.27; and
- Legg Mason (LM) -$1.04 (1.27%) to $80.62.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index shed 5.75 points (1.32%), closing at 429.78
- Teradyne (TER) -$0.59 (3.75%) to $15.15;
- Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) -$0.29 (3.17%) to $8.85;
- National Semiconductors (NSM) -$0.53 (2.75%) to $18.74;
- Micron Technology (MU) -$0.30 (2.54%) to $11.50; and
- Texas Instruments (TXN) -$0.61 (2.34%) to $25.48.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold rose $2.30 (0.54%) to close at $428.5 per ounce.
Gold Bugs Index added 3.21 points (1.55%), closing at 210.96
- Randgold Resources (GOLD) +$0.70 (5.97%) to $12.42;
- Eldorado Gold (EGO) +$0.11 (3.59%) to $3.17;
- Gold Fields (GFI) +$0.40 (3.52%) to $11.75;
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +$0.13 (3.32%) to $4.05; and
- Agnico Eagle (AEM) +$0.42 (3.1%) to $13.99.
Silver rose $0.12 (1.58%) to close at $7.39 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 1.49 points (1.57%), to 96.44 points.
- Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) +$0.08 (5.52%) to $1.53;
- Gold Fields (GFI) +$0.40 (3.52%) to $11.75;
- Agnico Eagle (AEM) +$0.42 (3.1%) to $13.99; and
- Barrick Gold (ABX) +$0.71 (3.05%) to $23.98.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 428.5 | 2.3 | 0.54% |
| Silver | 0.07385 | -7.1962 | -98.98% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 96.44 | 1.49 | 1.57% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 210.96 | 3.21 | 1.55% |
Oil Market
Oil lost ground, shedding $0.87 per barrel, closing at $47.6 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) lost 7.69 points (0.94%), ending the day at 812.21
- Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$2.44 (3.41%) to $69.18;
- Amerada Hess (AHC) -$1.86 (1.92%) to $95.15; and
- ChevronTexaco (CVX) -$0.89 (1.5%) to $58.61.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index dipped 1.71 points (1.23%), to end the session at 137.01
- Baker Hughes (BHI) -$1.24 (2.62%) to $46.11;
- Cooper Cameron (CAM) -$1.19 (2.05%) to $56.93; and
- Schlumberger (SLB) -$1.51 (2.04%) to $72.38.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 289.99 | 1.42 | 0.49% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 47.6 | -0.87 | -1.79% |
| Heating Oil | 1.313 | -0.0305 | -2.27% |
| Natural Gas | 5.935 | -0.181 | -2.96% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.2365 | -0.0475 | -3.7% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 812.21 | -7.69 | -0.94% |
| Oil Service Index | 137.01 | -1.71 | -1.23% |
Currency Markets
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 83.48 | -0.27 | -0.32% |
| Euro | 1.3066 | 0.0039 | 0.3% |
| Yen | 105.5 | 0.12 | 0.11% |
| Sterling | 1.8946 | 0.0095 | 0.5% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7875 | 0.0026 | 0.33% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.1842 | -0.0029 | -0.24% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.813 | 0.0043 | 0.53% |
Euro-Zone Indices
| Country | Index | Last | % | % |
| France | CAC 40 | 4005.5 | -3.52 | -0.09% |
| Germany | DAX-30 | 4369.68 | 0.91 | 0.02% |
| UK | FTSE 100 | 5057.4 | 4.2 | 0.08% |
| Italy | MIBTel | 24738 | -2 | -0.01% |
European Index Internals
| CAC-40 | DAX-30 | FTSE-100 | |
| Advancers | 13 | 18 | 46 |
| Decliners | 25 | 12 | 50 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 21.9 | 31.7 | 962.7 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 147.4 | 59.1 | 563.8 |
Euro STOXX-50 Largest Volume
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Vivendi Universal | 24.8 | -0.03 | -0.12% | 3191897 |
| Unilever Cert | 50.4 | -0.2 | -0.4% | 3030546 |
| Unicredito | 4.503 | 0.01 | 0.18% | 220410 |
| Total | 174.2 | 1.6 | 0.93% | 4163098 |
| Tim | 5.333 | 0.01 | 0.15% | 112193 |
CAC-40 Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| l'Oreal | 58.9 | 1.3 | 2.26% | 3515565 |
| Michelin | 53.65 | 1.1 | 2.09% | 1002001 |
| Lagardere S.C.A. | 60.9 | 0.85 | 1.42% | 794274 |
| Bouygues | 32.68 | 0.43 | 1.33% | 1229315 |
| Total | 174.2 | 1.6 | 0.93% | 4163098 |
CAC-40 Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| France Telecom | 23.82 | -0.63 | -2.58% | 13195297 |
| Alcatel | 9.57 | -0.17 | -1.75% | 13257671 |
| Cap Gemini | 26 | -0.45 | -1.7% | 1171353 |
| ST Microelectronics | 13 | -0.19 | -1.44% | 7238106 |
| Publicis Groupe | 23.62 | -0.3 | -1.25% | 1001159 |
FTSE Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (£) | Change | % | Volume |
| Yell Group | 4.75 | 0.07 | 1.5% | 8788768 |
| Xstrata | 10.63 | 0.01 | 0.09% | 4275591 |
| WPP Group | 5.97 | 0.12 | 2.05% | 11678113 |
| Wolseley | 11.1 | 0.01 | 0.05% | 2269794 |
| William Hill | 6.065 | 0.04 | 0.58% | 1262991 |
FTSE Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (£) | Change | % | Volume |
| 3I Group | 7.145 | -0.03 | -0.35% | 1602374 |
| Alliance & Leicester | 9.44 | 0.04 | 0.37% | 2556848 |
| Alliance Unichem | 7.745 | -0.01 | -0.06% | 1173931 |
| Allied Domecq | 5.33 | -0.01 | -0.19% | 8714560 |
| Amvescap | 3.5975 | 0.01 | 0.14% | 7571871 |
DAX-30 Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Deutsche Boerse | 51.74 | 2.23 | 4.5% | 1933312 |
| MAN | 31.91 | 1.1 | 3.57% | 2130686 |
| Thyssen Krupp | 17.23 | 0.39 | 2.32% | 5531925 |
| Bayer | 26.42 | 0.39 | 1.5% | 3452553 |
| Henkel | 70.96 | 0.87 | 1.24% | 278967 |
DAX-30 Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Infineon Tech | 7.45 | -0.1 | -1.32% | 8093808 |
| Siemens | 60.17 | -0.61 | -1% | 4349216 |
| DeutscheTelekom | 16.12 | -0.15 | -0.92% | 30900722 |
| Deutsche Post | 17.92 | -0.16 | -0.88% | 3078098 |
| SAP | 122.98 | -0.9 | -0.73% | 1118300 |
