Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, March 17, 2005

OzRant: Hypnotized by the Tape...

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Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - fell by 12.60 points (-0.30%), finishing at 4217.30 points. The index hit an intraday low at 4209.7 - set 25 minutes after the open - then cruised to a session high of 4232.90 on a burst of enthusiasm at about 1 p.m. ... then sagged into the close. I don't know about you, but this sort of action looks manic-depressive to me. The ramp-up off the "test" of 4200 smacked of short-squeezing, and the sag into the close looked very danger as Mav's Mum might say. Too many people are "trading the tape", which is exacerbating the swings.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 12.00 points (-0.28%), finishing at 4232.40 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 2.10 points (-0.09%), finishing at 2286.40 points. Within the index members, there were 8 that rose, and 12 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 41.77m units while volume in the losers totalled 64.44m units. Banks were mostly down (NAB, ANZ, WBC down, CBA up) and major energy-oriented & Resources stocks were solid (BHP, WPL, RIO all up).

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.42 (1.76%) to $24.27 on volume of 2.57m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.50 (1.07%) to $47.35 on volume of 5.33m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.40 (1%) to $40.60 on volume of 1.11m shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. (CBA), +$0.31 (0.86%) to $36.17 on volume of 4.77m shares; and
  • AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.03 (0.41%) to $7.37 on volume of 4.58m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Coles Myer (CML), -$0.19 (1.93%) to $9.66 on volume of 6.82m shares;
  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.13 (1.7%) to $7.51 on volume of 2.73m shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.15 (0.9%) to $16.52 on volume of 3.97m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.18 (0.82%) to $21.77 on volume of 5.59m shares; and
  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.04 (0.74%) to $5.33 on volume of 6.76m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 8.30 points (-0.34%), finishing at 2422.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.27 (19.85%) to $1.63 on volume of 1.63m shares;
  • Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.08 (7.02%) to $1.22 on volume of 418,000 shares;
  • Petsec Energy (PSA), +$0.07 (6.25%) to $1.19 on volume of 208,000 shares;
  • Sally Malay Mining (SMY), +$0.05 (5.05%) to $1.04 on volume of 1.28m shares; and
  • Equigold (EQI), +$0.06 (4.88%) to $1.29 on volume of 848,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • ERG (ERG), -$0.09 (20%... ouch!!) to $0.34 on volume of 32.07m shares;
  • MYOB (MYO), -$0.12 (10.17%) to $1.06 on volume of 42.25m shares; and
  • Pacifica Group (PBB), -$0.15 (5.14%) to $2.77 on volume of 1.97m shares;
  • Primelife Corporation (PLF), -$0.05 (4.27%) to $1.12 on volume of 138,000 shares; and
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.00 (4.17%) to $0.02 on volume of 2.7m shares.
Index Changes
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4217.3-12.6-0.3%663.19m
XTLS&P/ASX 202286.4-2.1-0.09%106.22m
XFLS&P/ASX 504178-11.7-0.28%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003439.1-9.8-0.28%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004232.4-12-0.28%515.67m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004237-12.3-0.29%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504078.1-12.5-0.31%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2422.4-8.3-0.34%206.91m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
XAOXJOXSOASX20Market
Advances13258528683
Declines2211189112830
Advancing Volume176.03m163.62m33.9m41.77465.02
Declining Volume378.49m289.39m142.96m64.44586.39

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Energy which gained 0.97% to 8333.30 points. Seems that people are now "investing" in these stocks based on gyrations in the oil price - which is never a good thing. Half of the newcomers won't even know the difference between the OPEC crude basket and WTI, let alone the production characteristics of domestic gas and oil stocks.

Just ask yourself this simple question: who would have been buying oil stocks in 2002 (as oil was making multi-year lows) if oil-price gyrations were their lodestar? Nobody, that's who. Straw hats in winter... yet everybody thinks there's money to be made in raincoats.

Nowadays everybody thinks oil stocks are a no-brainer... and everybody can't be rich. (Let it be known that I think oil will get to $80 - basis WTI Light Sweet - but the stocks are getting ahead of themselves).

Still... the sector was helped by

  • WorleyParsons (WOR), +$0.20 (2.92%) to $7.05 on volume of 801,000 shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.05 (2.14%) to $2.39 on volume of 5.87m shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.14 (1.88%) to $7.59 on volume of 3.53m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.42 (1.76%) to $24.27 on volume of 2.57m shares; and
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.02 (1.04%) to $1.94 on volume of 497,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Industrials - but it actually lost ground for the session (to the tune of -0.17% to 5131.60 points). No prizes for second place if your outcome is negative.

The sector leaders were -

  • Toll Holdings (TOL), +$0.36 (2.68%) to $13.80 on volume of 1.83m shares;
  • Adsteam Marine (ADZ), +$0.03 (1.59%) to $1.92 on volume of 1.27m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.40 (1%) to $40.60 on volume of 1.11m shares;
  • Hills Industries (HIL), +$0.04 (0.95%) to $4.26 on volume of 183,000 shares; and
  • Spotless Group (SPT), +$0.03 (0.58%) to $5.20 on volume of 297,000 shares.

And given that there was no silver medal, there was obviously no bronze today either - the third-best performed sector posted a loss, and there are no medals for "negative enhancements". For the record, the third-best sector was the two-stock Telecommunications which lost -0.21% to 1910.40 points. Telstra dropped a cent, and Telecom NZ dropped 2c. Hardly the stuff of legends when the open-close gap in a stock is little more than the bid-ask spread.

  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.02 (0.34%) to $5.88 on volume of 1.72m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation. (TLS), down a penny (0.19%) to $5.39 on volume of 17.71m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Information Technology which lost 1.88% to 386.40 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • ERG Ltd (ERG), -$0.09 (20%) to $0.34 on volume of 32.07m shares;
  • MYOB (MYO), -$0.12 (10.17%) to $1.06 on volume of 42.25m shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.17 (2.83%) to $5.84 on volume of 2m shares;
  • IRESS Market Technology (IRE), -$0.01 (0.24%) to $4.19 on volume of 219,000 shares; and
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.00 (0%) to $0.62 on volume of 259,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.59% to 2289.30 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Pacifica Group (PBB), -$0.15 (5.14%) to $2.77 on volume of 1.97m shares;
  • JB Hi-Fi (JBH), -$0.17 (4.03%) to $4.05 on volume of 515,000 shares; and
  • G.U.D. Holdings (GUD), -$0.19 (2.68%) to $6.90 on volume of 376,000 shares;
  • Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN), -$0.06 (2.1%) to $2.80 on volume of 2.55m shares; and
  • Southern Cross Broadcasting (Australia) (SBC), -$0.20 (1.45%) to $13.60 on volume of 85,000 shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XEJEnergy8333.379.70.97%23.22m
XNJIndustrials5131.6-8.9-0.17%49.34m
XTJTelecommunications1910.4-4-0.21%19.42m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5030.8-11.6-0.23%57.02m
XMJMaterials7455.6-19.4-0.26%107.3m
XUJUtilities4781.1-13.3-0.28%4.6m
XFJFinancials4950.8-14.7-0.3%175.47m
XHJHealthcare4899.6-19.2-0.39%11.7m
XSJConsumer Staples5676.4-30.6-0.54%39.7m
XPJProperty Trusts1782.1-9.7-0.54%122.43m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2289.3-13.7-0.59%39.98m
XIJInformation Technology386.4-7.4-1.88%78.53m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
MYOMYOB1.06-0.12-10.17%42.25m
ERGERG0.34-0.09-20%32.07m
DRTDB Rreef Trust 1.30 00%23.6m
ADYAdmiralty Resources.0.22-0.02-8.51%18.41m
TLSTelstra Corporation.5.39-0.01-0.19%17.71m
BHPBHP Billiton18.590.030.16%17.44m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
CMQChemeq1.630.2719.85%1.63m
BOCBougainville Copper0.720.0710.77%193000
VSLVision Systems.1.220.087.02%417747
PSAPetsec Energy1.190.076.25%208269
ADAAdacel Technologies0.360.025.88%145483

All Ords Percentage Decliners
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
ERGERG0.34-0.09-20%32.07m
MYOMYOB1.06-0.12-10.17%42.25m
LOKLooksmart1.01-0.09-8.18%132082
ABIAmbri0.17-0.01-5.56%3.72m
CTXCaltex Australia15.8-0.89-5.33%1.64m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 95.44 points (-0.80%) at 11777.74 points as this issue goes to print. There was an early decline to the 11750's in the first half hour of trade, but a rally took the Nikkei back above 11800 before softening back under that mark by lunchtime. The post lunch session has been soft, but without any real momentum thus far.

The Kiwi Market declined 30.43 points (-0.96%). A total of 5 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 0.7million units. Decliners numbered 35, and total volume traded in losers was 18.5million shares. Individual stocks that were a but suck included...

  • Fisher & Paykel A (FPA), -NZ$0.12 (3.75%) to NZ$3.08 on volume of 466,000 shares;
  • Steel & Tube Holdings (STU), -NZ$0.17 (3.39%) to NZ$4.85 on volume of 382,000 shares;
  • Pumpkin Patch (PPL), -NZ$0.11 (3.31%) to NZ$3.21 on volume of 1.25m shares;
  • Ryman Healthcare (RYM), -NZ$0.10 (2.82%) to NZ$3.45 on volume of 75,000 shares; and
  • Carter Holt Harvey (CAH), -NZ$0.06 (2.71%) to NZ$2.15 on volume of 1.78m shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index recovered from an opening decline of over 100 points, to show a decline of just 2.05 points (-0.01%) to 13830 points at lunchtime (it's currently the luncheon interval in Hongkers). Within the Hang Seng, 8 index components rose, while 19 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 91.8million units, and total volume traded in losers was 88.8million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the decline included...

  • Li & Fung (0494), -HK$0.30 (2.17%) to HK$13.55 on volume of 1.8m shares;
  • Yue Yuen Industries (0551), -HK$0.40 (1.84%) to HK$21.30 on volume of 2.01m shares;
  • Denway Motors (0203), -HK$0.05 (1.8%) to HK$2.73 on volume of 26.45m shares;
  • HK& China Gas (0003), -HK$0.25 (1.57%) to HK$15.70 on volume of 2.44m shares;
  • Johnson Electric H (0179), -HK$0.10 (1.39%) to HK$7.10 on volume of 1.73m shares; and
  • Henderson Inv (0097), -HK$0.15 (1.35%) to HK$11.00 on volume of 1.38m shares.
Regional Indices
CountryNameClose+/-%Volume
New ZealandNZSE503124.955-30.43-0.96%20.4m
JapanNikkei 22511777.74-95.44-0.8%70663
KoreaKOSPI980.83-12.3-1.24%711383
SingaporeStraits Times2166.78-2.86-0.13%0
Hong KongHang Seng13830.47-2.05-0.01%209.85m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp897.42-0.09-0.01%0