Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
I thought it was yet another day when Blogger's system let me down; first the layout went completely to buggery, then the pubishing system fell over at 7 a.m. AEST (just as I was trying to publish this USRant, in preparation for leaving for a full day of admin). What an absolute pain in the bum; I get home at 4 p.m. and it appeared the system is still down.... Sucky, huh?
Then, I decide to check if some database stuff on MarketRant Pro had "worked" (I was trying to use HTTP "tunnelling" to enable me to do SQL-stuff remotely using a desktop app rather than through a clunky web-based management interface).
Oddly, I discovered that the app would not log in to the SQL hostserver on RantPro... which obviously bore further investigation.
So, off I go to the clunky web-app, and everything appears just fine. Then I decide to run a PHP script in a browser that should test the database, and PHUT. "web site not found". Not my well-presented, sexy "Error 404" page, but the "vanilla" one.
So it turns out that the entirety of RantPro was (and still is) "in the dark", which I find bvery odd, coming as it does just a few days after I "dissed" the NeTrots and Israel. (These two are not champions of free speech, nor of freedom in any form). If this is a DoS trick, someone is going to jail for it.
So, 15 hours after it was actually prepared, let's get this thing up and over with, and not speak of the outage ever again, lest he veins on my forehead burst and give me an awful port-wine stain. But stay tuned for alternative viewing platforms (i.e., a backup location on my own server, once the silly thing is "live" again).
Needless to say, RantPro Forums are inaccessible at present, as are Rhett's F1 Forums and the WhatReallyHappened Forums that I also look after (for free). Sorry for that, but I'll get to the bottom of it, and whoever owns the IP address from which any nasty activity originated had better spend the rest of their lives listening for footfalls. Murder is not used often enough as a disciplinary tool, in my view.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.
- a $7.75billion, overnight repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral; and
- a $8billion, 14-day repurchase with $7.116billion in T-backed collateral .
Plenty repo - plenty rally. Not hard to explain.
Major US Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 60.3 points (0.58%), closing out the day at 10546.32 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10557.11, and fell as low as 10476.71 during the session.
Within the blue-chip index, 22 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Alcoa (AA, +4.97% to $31.47) and General Motors (GM, +2.24% to $30.53), which accounted for 16 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 8 and were led by Wal Mart (WMT, -1.21% to $48.90) and Home Depot (HD, -1.03% to $37.40), with these two stocks contributing -7 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 321.7m shares to 94.3m.
The broader S&P500 rose 7.07 points (0.6%), at 1191.14. Within the index, gainers numbered 363, while 127 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 4:1 in favour of the winners - 1.47b to 373m.
Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite rose 19.65 points (0.98%), to close at 2018.79, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 19.04 points (1.29%), to end at 1499.71 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 85, while 14 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 11.7:1 (YIKES) in favour of the winners - 741m to 633m.
NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 1.88 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.71 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10546.32 | 60.3 | 0.58% |
| S&P500 | 1191.14 | 7.07 | 0.6% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2018.79 | 19.65 | 0.98% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1499.71 | 19.04 | 1.29% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.88bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.71bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.26%; the Fannie Mae $55 call option rose another 10% or so to $320. Recall that it opened at $130 the session after I pointed out that the Wall Street Journalists had given the first "journalist clue" for a likely bounce... again, I reiterate that I am not claiming this as element of the "track record"... it serves only as an additional piece of evidence as to how journalists are like ratings agencies... by the time they say anything half sensible, everyone is already on the same side of the boat.
In short, any time you hear a "mainstream" journalist babbling about a particular direction, bet on the opposite. You will be right far more often than you're wrong. It doesn't matter what it is; democracy, American "projection", "Freedom", Fannie Mae, the US Dollar... hell, journalists even started touting Gold - but not until it was in the last stages of its recent climb.
- General Electric (GE) +$0.28 (0.79%) to $35.78;
- Citigroup (C) +$0.31 (0.69%) to $45.46;
- Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.60 (1.21%) to $48.90;
- I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.56 (0.63%) to $88.44;
- Intel (INTC) +$0.36 (1.56%) to $23.41;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.38 (2.14%) to $18.15;
- eBay (EBAY) -$1.03 (2.77%) to $36.14;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +$1.00 (1.85%) to $55.15; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.03 (0.05%) to $63.77.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2059 to 1201 for a single-day A/D reading of 858; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1872 to 1178. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to 470.8 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 34.3.
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1291.8 to 543.9 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1297.4 to 363.1 million shares.
90 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 22 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 55 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 82 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| Market Breadth Statistics | ||
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 2059 | 1872 |
| Decliners | 1201 | 1178 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 1291.78 | 1297.44 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 543.92 | 363.1 |
| New Highs | 90 | 55 |
| New Lows | 22 | 82 |
| Market Sentiment Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 12.32 | -0.82 | -6.24% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 16.64 | -0.73 | -4.2% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.58 | -0.15 | -20.55% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.69 | -0.03 | -3.93% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 96.7 | 6.57 | 7.29% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds fell moderately hard along the curve, 30-year bond futures falling more than a point between their high and low points for the session (and closing close to the low). The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose 4.3 basis points to 4.785%, and yields on 5- and 10-year bonds rose by similar amounts.
Interestingly, spreads to "high quality" corporate paper (which includes a lot of crap that the ratings houses are too frigging gutlessb to downgrade) narrowed significantly - spreads between 5-year AAA and 5-year Treasuries fell 11 basis points to 19 basis points... that is a massivespread move. Moves of similar absolute magnitude happened in the 10-year spread and the 20-year too.
Now it might be that it's because some bonds with yields at the high end of the AAA range have recently been downgraded (thereby removing them from the AAA index, thereby reducing the average yield on the remaining constitutents) .Spreads had been widening pretty consistently over the last month (as of yesterday the spread between 20-yr AAA and 20-year Treasuries had widened over 25 basis points in a month), and this snapback is interesting.
| Treasury Yields | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.7 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.7 | 0.03 | 0.82% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 4.12 | 0.031 | 0.76% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.472 | 0.036 | 0.81% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.785 | 0.043 | 0.91% |
The Banks Index added 0.17 points (0.18%), at 97.3; within the index,
- North Fork Bancorp (NFB) +$0.33 (1.18%) to $28.36;
- Northern Trust (NTRS) +$0.37 (0.83%) to $44.89;
- Bank Of NY (BK) +$0.22 (0.75%) to $29.47;
- Citigroup (C) +$0.31 (0.69%) to $45.46; and
- Bank Of America (BAC) +$0.23 (0.52%) to $44.83.
The Broker-dealer Index added 0.25 points (0.17%), ending the day at 146.05; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.60 (1.56%) to $39.00;
- Goldman Sachs (GS) +$1.03 (0.92%) to $113.53;
- Merrill Lynch (MER) +$0.41 (0.73%) to $56.96;
- E*Trade (ET) +$0.08 (0.67%) to $11.95; and
- Legg Mason (LM) +$0.50 (0.66%) to $76.10.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index added 8.1 points (1.97%), at 418.97
- National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.70 (3.51%) to $20.65;
- Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) +$0.59 (3.42%) to $17.83;
- Teradyne (TER) +$0.46 (3.32%) to $14.30;
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.46 (2.92%) to $16.20; and
- Maxim Integrated (MXIM) +$1.00 (2.45%) to $41.86.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold fell by $0.60 (0.14%) to close at $426.50 per ounce. The nuffie-exodus is so close I can almost taste it; all it will take is one little uptick to give them some hope, then the nasty neck-breaking pullback that sees them all jump off... at the bottom.
Gold Bugs Index declined 0.12 points (0.06%), ending the day at 200.09
- Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.25 (2.19%) to $11.17;
- Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.15 (1.93%) to $7.64;
- Golden Star (GSS) -$0.04 (1.32%) to $2.99;
- Goldcorp (GG) -$0.07 (0.5%) to $13.91; and
- Randgold Resources (GOLD) -$0.04 (0.32%) to $12.61.
Silver fell by $0.05 (0.63%) to close at $7.07 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.26 points (0.28%), closing at 93.22 points.
- Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.25 (2.19%) to $11.17;
- Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.15 (1.93%) to $7.64;
- Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.29 (0.82%) to $35.01; and
- Goldcorp (GG) -$0.07 (0.5%) to $13.91.
| Precious Metals and Indices | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 426.50 | -0.60 | -0.14% |
| Silver | 7.07 | -0.05 | -0.63% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 93.22 | -0.26 | -0.28% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 200.09 | -0.12 | -0.06% |
Oil Market
Oil lost yet more ground, shedding another $1.69 per barrel and closing at $54.16 per barrel. The $55.50 puts (which were part of the option strangle I advocated as a risk-reducing replacement in advance of the Crude Oil Inventory data yesterday) rose to $211 from yesterday's close of $122 (recall the entry price was $148).
The other leg - the $56 call - closed at $57, down from yesterday's purchase price of $110. Remember, with a strangle its expected that one leg will go to zero; it's a volatility expansion play that relies on convexity to cause one leg to explode while the other dies a graceful death.
So currently the strangle - which had an aggregate outlay of $258, is now "worth" $268... a 2-session gain of just 3.8% - whereas the pure short would now be worth a little under $5k a contract. Them's the breaks: given the potential for a huge reversal upwards (if the oil inventories data had been nastier) it was sensible to take money off the table.
The same story applies to Heating Oil; the $1.62 call (purchased for 47.6 ticks or $200) fell to 25.9 ticks ($108.78), while the short leg - the $1.50 put - rose from its purchase price of 53 ticks ($222.60) to a whopping 102.9 ticks (432.80). So the aggregate value of the Heating Oil straddle is now $541.58, up from $422.60 at yesterday's open.
That's a little better (28.1% in two sessions), but had the Heating Oil short futures been held instead (short from 1.6900), the position profit would now be a staggering $6867 per $3375 contract margin. No use kicking oneself, because therewas no way to know in advance whether the oil inventories data would rekindle the upward momentum of the crude market.
As it stands, both the futures positions and the options strangles have been profitable by decent margins (maybe the Crude strangle is a little disappointing, but it comes after pocketing a couple of grand per contract from the futures play) - remember, the initial short futures that funded everything was only entered on Monday.
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) shed 2.87 points (0.33%), closing at 862.88
- Sunoco (SUN) -$2.19 (2%) to $107.14;
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -$1.14 (1.54%) to $73.02; and
- Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$0.75 (0.99%) to $75.10.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index shed 1.66 points (1.16%), to end the session at 141.42
- Nabors Industries (NBR) -$1.44 (2.38%) to $59.10;
- Transocean (RIG) -$1.01 (1.87%) to $53.12; and
- Tidewater (TDW) -$0.62 (1.56%) to $39.06.
| Energy Complex | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 306.28 | -1.79 | -0.58% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 54.16 | -1.69 | -3.03% |
| Heating Oil | 1.5275 | -0.06 | -3.78% |
| Natural Gas | 7.38 | -0.16 | -2.06% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.5725 | -0.09 | -5.21% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 862.88 | -2.87 | -0.33% |
| Oil Service Index | 141.42 | -1.66 | -1.16% |
Currency Markets
[]
| USD Exchange Rates | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 84.84 | 0.13 | 0.15% |
| Euro | 1.2856 | -0.0012 | -0.09% |
| Yen | 108.62 | 0 | 0% |
| Sterling | 1.8695 | -0.0099 | -0.53% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7658 | 0.0018 | 0.24% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.207 | 0.0012 | 0.1% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8181 | -0.0002 | -0.02% |
