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Well, it's about bloody time.
By now, regular readers are wel laware that I declared a top in oil the same weekend that Hurricane Katrina did her business all over the Gulf Coast; the original post is somewhere in the Rant Archive, so you can look for it your own self.Elsewhere I gave a chapter-and-verse recitation of the reasons for my target of $57-ish for Crude - again, it's in the RantArchive. Look for 'head and shoulders' or 'head & shoulders' or something like that.
Anyhow... Oil has dropped below $60 tonight. It's due for anouther bounce shortly. If it breaks down all the way to the actual Head and Shoulders projection ($54-ish) rather than my conservative $57 (so calcualted to retain an intact bull market in Energy), then the oil bull market is over for the present, and Woodside (WPL in the OzRant universe) will drop to the low $20s.
Note now - I haven't joined the AOH (Abiotic Oil Hypothesis) crowd yet; I am still in the 'oil market to hit $100... eventually' camp for now.
But several things could snap oil downwards - not least of which is a deliberate 'stomp' on the market's neck proir to a US attack on Iran and/or Syria. that, of course, would be the Mother of All Strategic Mistakes by the dying US Imperium, and a buy signal for Oil that would be almost as good as my "Buy Oil/Gold/Euro" back in late January 2002...
