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Yet again, the SPISpy directive ("short at 10:30, take 6 and look away") worked a treat, although I was trying to get it ready for distribution at 10 a.m. because the day-session SPI opened so strong; shorting was better at 10 a.m., but I couldn't get it out in time so had to settle for the 'usual' time.
The 10:30 trade looked for 6 SPI points and got them easily (the drop from 10:30 to 11:30 was actually only 12 points - had I got the thing out by 10 a.m., there was a 20-point move in which to try and capture 8-12 points).
Still, that SPISpy alert paid off a month's SPISpy access, all by itself; that's about right. They won't all be winners - of that you can be sure.
I said two months ago that I was turning my attention to 'working out' how the SPI worked - basically, finding its primary markers; turn times, whether or not it pays attention to 'standard' pivots (Answer: no)... plus an array of statistical analyses that require years of otherwise-pointless graduate study (luckily I have that) but which is useless without a better-than-decent grounding in actual economics.
Econometrics/statistics is worse-than-useless without very solid economics... The absence of an understanding of proper economic fundamentals makes half-witted American graduate students with rote-learned ability to solve linear differential equations feel like smart-asses. It's also why their hedge funds blow up.
Anyhow... now that the 'homework' is done, the SPI will bend to our will. It's not quite as easy as the Nikkei, but easier than the Euro or the T-bond. And since 3 SPI points a day doubles margin in a little over a month, the 'hurdle' is not difficult.
Anyhow... on to more normal things.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 7.50 points (-0.17%), finishing at 4460.80 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4468.30 (at 10:30 a.m.) and its low was 4447.4 (4450-ish) at 2:45 p.m. Sydney time.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 890 million units, 1.9% below its 10-day average. Of the 487 stocks in the index, 201 fell while 150 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.6:1, with 206.22million shares traded in losers while 128.56million shares traded in the day's gainers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 7.00 points (-0.15%), finishing at 4512.50 points. Both major indices benefited greatly from an inexplicable surge in the last hour of trading: it was only 10 points, but it came out of the blue - and the SPI has kept right on going in the afetr-market, rising another 10 points after the underlying market closed.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 2.20 points (-0.09%), finishing at 2438.60 points. Within the index members, there were 10 that rose, and 9 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 25.5 while volume in the losers totalled 47.54m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- Rinker Group (RIN), +$0.530 (3.5%) to $15.670 on volume of 3.31m shares;
- Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.190 (1.13%) to $17.040 on volume of 3.47m shares;
- St George Bank (SGB), +$0.240 (0.87%) to $27.940 on volume of 1.22m shares;
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.140 (0.77%) to $18.370 on volume of 1.45m shares; and
- Suncorp-Metway (SUN), +$0.140 (0.73%) to $19.300 on volume of 598,000 shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.780 (2.32%) to $32.860 on volume of 972,000 shares;
- Coles Myer Ltd (CML), -$0.18 (1.76%) to $10.02 on volume of 3.03m shares;
- Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.58 (1.63%) to $35.10 on volume of 1.48m shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.26 (1.22%) to $21.09 on volume of 11.95m shares;
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.05 (1.19%) to $4.14 on volume of 17.53m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 15.70 points (-0.62%), finishing at 2527.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Cellestis (CST), +$0.230 (8.81%) to $2.840 on volume of 85,000 shares;
- Novogen (NRT), +$0.400 (8.06%) to $5.360 on volume of 400,000 shares; and
- Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.030 (6.25%) to $0.510 on volume of 197,000 shares; and
- Consolidated Minerals (CSM), +$0.130 (4.13%) to $3.280 on volume of 2.12m shares; and
- Agenix (AGX), +$0.010 (3.7%) to $0.280 on volume of 236,000 shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Mosaic Oil (MOS), -$0.015 (7.89%) to $0.175 on volume of 2.46m shares;
- ERG (ERG), -$0.010 (6.9%) to $0.135 on volume of 2.84m shares; and
- Macarthur Coal (MCC), -$0.380 (6.83%) to $5.180 on volume of 1.16m shares; and
- Envestra (ENV), -$0.075 (6.12%) to $1.150 on volume of 236,000 shares; and
- SDI (SDI), -$0.050 (6.1%) to $0.770 on volume of 48,000 shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4460.8 | -7.5 | -0.17% | 451.65m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2438.6 | -2.2 | -0.09% | 0 |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4426.5 | -4.5 | -0.1% | 166.96m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3664.6 | -4.3 | -0.12% | 246.7m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4512.5 | -7 | -0.15% | 326.64m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4505 | -7.4 | -0.16% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4487.8 | -9.7 | -0.22% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2527.9 | -15.7 | -0.62% | 156.32m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 10 | 42 | 70 | 150 | 52 | 428 |
| Declines | 9 | 45 | 100 | 201 | 96 | 514 |
| Advancing Volume | 25.5m | 79.07m | 113.26m | 128.56 | 41.03 | 301.45 |
| Declining Volume | 47.54m | 127.74m | 162.41m | 206.22 | 48.83 | 342.22 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was XPJ Property Trusts which gained 0.51% to 1844.10 points. The sector was helped by
- Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.190 (1.13%) to $17.040 on volume of 3.47m shares;
- Mirvac Group (MGR), +$0.040 (1.02%) to $3.970 on volume of 4.45m shares;
- Investa Property Group (IPG), +$0.015 (0.76%) to $1.985 on volume of 817,000 shares;
- DB Rreef Trust (DRT), +$0.010 (0.74%) to $1.370 on volume of 5.83m shares; and
- General Property Trust (GPT), +$0.020 (0.52%) to $3.890 on volume of 2.46m shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was XFJ Financials which gained 0.32% to 5391.70 points. The sector leaders were -
- Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), +$0.090 (2.39%) to $3.860 on volume of 1.18m shares;
- Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), +$0.580 (2%) to $29.550 on volume of 563,000 shares;
- Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.035 (1.91%) to $1.870 on volume of 2.02m shares;
- IOOF Holdings (IFL), +$0.130 (1.8%) to $7.340 on volume of 68,000 shares; and
- Bendigo Bank (BEN), +$0.180 (1.59%) to $11.480 on volume of 117,000 shares.
The bronze today went to XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 0.27% to 5558.30 points. (For God's sake... note to self: DITCH THE BLOODY XFJ already!). The sector was led by
- Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), +$0.090 (2.39%) to $3.860 on volume of 1.18m shares;
- Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), +$0.580 (2%) to $29.550 on volume of 563,000 shares;
- Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.035 (1.91%) to $1.870 on volume of 2.02m shares;
- IOOF Holdings (IFL), +$0.130 (1.8%) to $7.340 on volume of 68,000 shares; and
- Bendigo Bank (BEN), +$0.180 (1.59%) to $11.480 on volume of 117,000 shares.
The worst-performed sector today was XEJ Energy which lost 2.13% to 10040.70 points. Boo hoo... everyone who thought they could get on yesterday's train, and who bought WPL last week, will look stupid this week, no?
The sector was dragged lower by
- Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.100 (3.91%) to $2.460 on volume of 588,000 shares;
- Oil Search (OSH), -$0.130 (3.9%) to $3.200 on volume of 6.37m shares;
- Hardman Resources (HDR), -$0.070 (3.43%) to $1.970 on volume of 2.78m shares;
- Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), -$0.060 (2.91%) to $2.000 on volume of 621,000 shares; and
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.780 (2.32%) to $32.860 on volume of 972,000 shares.
Just in front of last place on the sector table was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 1.08% to 1514.40 points. The sector was pulled down by both of its two lonely components -
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.050 (1.19%) to $4.140 on volume of 17.53m shares; and
- Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.030 (0.54%) to $5.480 on volume of 1.56m shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1844.1 | 9.3 | 0.51% | 46.52m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5391.7 | 17.2 | 0.32% | 90.5m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5558.3 | 14.9 | 0.27% | 46.09m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 5954.3 | 14.7 | 0.25% | 8.69m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2213 | 2.9 | 0.13% | 22.07m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 4992.4 | -22.6 | -0.45% | 37.45m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5843.6 | -27.1 | -0.46% | 24.54m |
| XMJ | Materials | 8350.9 | -39.2 | -0.47% | 100.19m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5233.3 | -26.3 | -0.5% | 2.9m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 426.8 | -3.1 | -0.72% | 4.96m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1514.4 | -16.5 | -1.08% | 19.09m |
| XEJ | Energy | 10040.7 | -218.3 | -2.13% | 16.13m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 4.14 | -0.05 | -1.19% | 17.53m |
| ADY | Admiralty Resources. | 0.12 | -0.01 | -7.69% | 15.3m |
| BSL | Bluescope Steel | 7.42 | -0.01 | -0.13% | 13.32m |
| BTA | Biota Holdings | 1.39 | -0.02 | -1.42% | 12.95m |
| BPC | Burns, Philp & Company | 1.17 | 0.01 | 0.87% | 12.42m |
| MIG | Macquarie Infrastructure Group | 3.37 | 0 | 0% | 11.98m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBT | Prana Biotechnology | 0.22 | 0.05 | 29.41% | 848072 |
| CNT | Centamin Egypt | 0.43 | 0.04 | 8.86% | 2.08m |
| CST | Cellestis | 2.84 | 0.23 | 8.81% | 85143 |
| NRT | Novogen | 5.36 | 0.4 | 8.06% | 400316 |
| PBD | Port Bouvard | 1.89 | 0.12 | 6.78% | 120447 |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBH | CBH Resources | 0.17 | -0.02 | -8.33% | 4.41m |
| MOS | Mosaic Oil | 0.18 | -0.02 | -7.89% | 2.46m |
| ERG | ERG | 0.14 | -0.01 | -6.9% | 2.84m |
| ENV | Envestra | 1.15 | -0.08 | -6.12% | 235838 |
| BOQ | Bank Of Queensland | 13.53 | -0.76 | -5.32% | 664950 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3316.45 | -9.21 | -0.28% | 13.53m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 14014.26 | -61.7 | -0.44% | 0 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1211.51 | -10.47 | -0.86% | 302757 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2255.88 | -10.64 | -0.47% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 14369.8 | -215.99 | -1.48% | 156.23m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 912.55 | -1.37 | -0.15% | 0 |
