Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
Apologies for the exclamation marks; it's just that my cicadas are getting their rhythm back...
I've yet to come up with a satisfactory setup for the intra-session bloggery; there's nothing that shits me more than seeing my oeuvre arrayed upside down (by which I mean, if you want to read the session's EuroRants, you have to start at the bottom of the page.. what are we, all Ginezi?
But - if I may say so myself... Damn! Was that Euro-bounce call the sickest, or what?
Think of how satisfyin' it is to declare a bounce (in yesterday's USRant) and then have to wait 12 hours for the thing to take hold. Then, to exit that bounce within 3 minutes of the session high (while making sure to post the trade development - which is a pain given the technology used)... then see the market reverse over cent and a half, vindicating the exit. (That is a big move in a currency in one session, believe me).
I posted the 'Ghost' short setup well after it had already happened in a separate blog-post just under this one. I missed the entry itself because I was distracted by the need - as I saw it - to fully explain the Euro-bounce entry and exit). Of course I had no chance of actually taking that signal (because I had already missed it, showing y'all how the bounce trade worked. Who gives a rat's danglies, though - I was ready for bed already.
Post-Ghost, the Euro just kept falling... all the way down to 1.1829: remember, the 'Ghost' setup advocated a short when the Euro went back through 1.2010 - and the short-term chart never gave any signals (except sells) for the rest of the session. It was a goddamned bonanza, Hoss.
Anyhow.. data? Yeah, payrolls sucked - 50-odd thousand as compared with expectations of over 100k. Wages actually grew, whoch will irritate the vampires who feast on the garmonbozia generated by everyone below the top quartile (the bottom 65% have been going backwards for 25 years, and went backwards 2.5% in the last quarter in real wage terms). In short, there was nothing that changed the interest-arb story in favour of the USD (i.e., nothing that would make you think of an additional requirement to tighten monetary policy), except for Greenstain shooting off his stupid trap about inflation.
Here's a hint, Greenspan, you moron. If you don't want inflation, stop printing money. Don't make out like it's some fucking mystery about demand & supply of real quantities or factors of production, because it's not... if you don't print money, prices can't rise. You're in the goddamn inflation/wealth confiscation business and you know it full well, you odious parasite.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation - a $3.25billion, 6-day repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral undertaken at a 4 basis point discount to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).
Major US Indices
The chart says it all; a setup so crystal clear that you would have to be a complete divvie to fail to grasp it. If 'CCI divergences are trumps' then this signal is the Right Bower... (the Joker is when you get both a CCI divergence and a smoothed-%R extreme).
Check it out:
So there was no need for anything too fancy-pants to get the required S&P point - although the S&P futures stuff is based on much shorter timeframes (an 85-tick chart, actually); the 85-tick generated 4 ¾-point signals - and no losers - by the time the 15-minute gave 'conservative' traders the heads-up.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 8.17 points (0.08%), closing out the day at 10530.76 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10552.38 (10550-ish) just before the end of the first hour of trade, and then turned and fell all the way to 10479.39 (10475-ish) at which point it printed that delightful divergence you saw above.
Within the blue-chip index, 19 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Pfizer (PFE, +1.78% to $22.26) and Home Depot (HD, +1.40% to $41.36), which accounted for 8 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 11 and were led by Exxon Mobil (XOM, -1.14% to $57.90) and Merck (MRK, -0.88% to $29.22), with these two stocks contributing -7 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 260.3m shares to 91.8m.
The broader S&P500 posted a rise of 0.2 points (0.02%), ending the day at 1220.14. Within the index, gainers numbered 246, while 228 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.4:1 in favour of the winners with 1031.37 million units traded in the winners as compared with 757.00 million traded in the losers .
Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite gained 9.21 points (0.43%), to close at 2169.43, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 8.36 points (0.52%), to end at 1628.03 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 50, while 46 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.9:1 in favour of the winners with 467.15 million traded in the winners compared to 243.30 million in the losers .
NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.04 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was solid, with 1.73 billion shares traded.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10530.76 | 8.17 | 0.08% |
| S&P500 | 1220.14 | 0.2 | 0.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2169.43 | 9.21 | 0.43% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1628.03 | 8.36 | 0.52% |
| NYSE Volume | 2.04bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.73bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.57%
- General Electric (GE) +$0.04 (0.12%) to $34.02;
- Citigroup (C) +$0.15 (0.33%) to $45.60;
- Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.24 (0.51%) to $47.69;
- I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.13 (0.16%) to $83.00;
- Intel (INTC) +$0.10 (0.42%) to $23.99;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.36 (2.06%) to $17.87;
- eBay (EBAY) +$0.03 (0.07%) to $41.58;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -$0.06 (0.13%) to $47.00; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.97 (1.61%) to $61.39.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 1711 to 1516, for a single-day A/D reading of -195; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1529 to 1465. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line fell to 246.3 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D fell to 219.2.
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1001.9 to 964 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1036 to 645.6 million shares.
70 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 88 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 97 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 58 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| Market Breadth Statistics | ||
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 1516 | 1529 |
| Decliners | 1711 | 1465 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 1001.87 | 1036 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 963.97 | 645.6 |
| New Highs | 70 | 97 |
| New Lows | 88 | 58 |
| Market Sentiment Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 13.17 | 0.17 | 1.31% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 15.18 | -0.47 | -3% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.72 | 0.22 | 44% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.65 | 0 | 0% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 92.6 | -1.2 | -1.27% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds fell slightly at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 1.5 bps to 4.852%. The 30-year T-bond futures fell all the way to 110-12/32 before a little flurry of short-covering saw them close at 112-21/32, down 4 ticks for the session. (As a side note, the 'RantSlinger' bond-market daily target ought to be - get this - two ticks. That target 'doubles margin' in 24 sessions).
The middle of the yield curve was broadly lower: five year yields rose to 4.555%, and ten-year yields rose to 4.657%.
Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 5.0 bps wider at 15.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts fell to 54.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 70.5 bps for 20-years.
Credit spreads (spreads between corporate bonds of the same maturity profile but different creditworthiness) were broadly tighter with the AAA-A spread on 20-years 6.0 bps looser at 47.0 basis points and the 10-year AAA-A spread 7.0 bps looser at7.0 bps.
| Treasury Yields | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 3.865 | 0.018 | 0.47% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 4.46 | 0.02 | 0.45% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 4.555 | 0.013 | 0.29% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.657 | 0.013 | 0.28% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.852 | 0.015 | 0.31% |
The Banks Index posted a rise of 0.51 points (0.51%), to end the session at 99.8; within the index,
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +$0.72 (1.81%) to $40.40;
- Washington Mutual (WM) +$0.43 (1.09%) to $39.98;
- North Fork Bancorp (NFB) +$0.24 (0.93%) to $26.06;
- Wachovia (WB) +$0.41 (0.82%) to $50.71; and
- PNC Financial Services (PNC) +$0.38 (0.62%) to $61.28.
The Broker-dealer Index posted a rise of 0.49 points (0.26%), closing at 186.33; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Legg Mason (LM) +$1.88 (1.68%) to $113.57;
- Goldman Sachs (GS) +$1.76 (1.36%) to $130.96;
- A G Edwards (AGE) +$0.40 (0.94%) to $42.73;
- Bear Stearns (BSC) +$0.69 (0.64%) to $108.20; and
- Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$0.67 (0.54%) to $123.76.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index posted a rise of 2.3 points (0.51%), to 451.83
- Teradyne (TER) +$0.28 (2.01%) to $14.22;
- Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) +$0.87 (1.82%) to $48.80;
- Maxim Integrated (MXIM) +$0.66 (1.81%) to $37.03;
- Novellus Systems (NVLS) +$0.24 (1.06%) to $22.94; and
- Linear Technology (LLTC) +$0.28 (0.83%) to $34.19.
Gold & Silver Markets
All of a sudden, old Zoidberg doesn't look so stupid calling Gold 'tired' over a month ago...
Gold fell by $4.00 (0.87%) to close at $457.90 per ounce.
The Gold Bugs Index shed 1.38 points (0.61%), closing at 223.75
- Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.12 (3.49%) to $3.32;
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.07 (1.82%) to $3.78;
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) -$0.91 (1.78%) to $50.28;
- Iamgold (IAG) -$0.12 (1.75%) to $6.75; and
- Goldcorp (GG) -$0.25 (1.26%) to $19.54.
And I think Silver was at about 7.80 (or maybe higher, maybe?) when I declared that it too was looking like it needed maybe nice mug cocoa and a lie down.
Silver fell by $0.05 (0.66%) to close at $7.57 per ounce.
The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.57 points (0.54%), ending the day at 105.83 points.
- Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.04 (3.01%) to $1.29;
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) -$0.91 (1.78%) to $50.28;
- Goldcorp (GG) -$0.25 (1.26%) to $19.54; and
- Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.10 (0.96%) to $10.30.
| Precious Metals and Indices | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 457.90 | -4.00 | -0.87% |
| Silver | 7.57 | -0.05 | -0.66% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 105.83 | -0.57 | -0.54% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 223.75 | -1.38 | -0.61% |
Oil Market
Bounce. Not 'return to bull market'. Not 'reversal to regain the highs'. I'll not pretend that I declared it was going to resume its slide so easily, and the $57-ish target that I've promulgated is going to be a difficult 'get' in the very short term... but it's still on the table, technically speaking.
Oil lost ground, shedding $1.20 per barrel, closing at $60.58 per barrel.
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) dipped 27.62 points (2.7%), closing at 995.62
- Sunoco (SUN) -$4.14 (5.38%) to $72.85;
- Marathon Oil (MRO) -$2.20 (3.48%) to $60.93; and
- Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$2.55 (2.89%) to $85.70.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index dipped 5.19 points (2.93%), closing at 171.76
- Halliburton (HAL) -$3.57 (5.52%) to $61.11;
- National Oilwells/Varco (NOV) -$2.97 (4.64%) to $61.00; and
- Global Industries (GLBL) -$0.50 (3.64%) to $13.22.
| Energy Complex | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 329.9 | -1.73 | -0.52% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 60.58 | -1.2 | -1.94% |
| Heating Oil | 1.7962 | -0.02 | -1.07% |
| Natural Gas | 11.415 | -0.27 | -2.34% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.608 | -0.02 | -1.16% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 995.62 | -27.62 | -2.7% |
| Oil Service Index | 171.76 | -5.19 | -2.93% |
Currency Markets
As I said in the prefaratory remarks up the top of the page, the USD is doing a number on everybody. I mentioned this as a possibility months ago - that the USD would defy analysis and give shorts a real scare. At the time I was trying to explain how my medium-term outlook for Gold (weak) could 'gel' with my long-term outlook for USD (also weak). The oly thing I could come up with was an unanticipated burst in the USD.
| USD Exchange Rates | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 91.28 | 0.84 | 0.93% |
| Euro | 1.1817 | -0.0122 | -1.02% |
| Yen | 118.285 | 0.87 | 0.74% |
| Sterling | 1.7498 | -0.0199 | -1.12% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7333 | -0.0051 | -0.69% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.3067 | 0.0139 | 1.08% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.845 | -0.0011 | -0.13% |
