Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Sunday, November 20, 2005

USRant: Monday Should Be Soggy...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

There have been a few complaints from folks who have been unable to get a peek at a restricted-content version of the subscription site. I had thought that generating 50 temporary logins would suffice, but that hasn't been the case. Also, there have been a few scallywags who have taken the time to examine the output for literally hundreds of ASX codes (I could tell that just from the bandwidth use over the weekend, which has been almost 10x the normal weekday level - but it also helps to have tracking stats for every downloaded page).

In order for those who have not yet managed to get a viewing, I've left those temporary logins intact for now - I will turn them off tonight at 9:00 p.m. AEDST.

To see how to acquire access for a viewing, check out "You Can Take A Peek At My Bits".

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation - a $2billion, weekend repurchase with $1.098billion in T-backed collateral undertaken at a 3.3 basis point discount to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).

Major US Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 46.11 points (0.43%), closing out the day at 10766.33 points. The index got a booster-shot at the open, hitting 10796.26 (10800-ish) within the first finve minutes of trade.... and that tuned out to be the high of the session. From there, it reversed and dropped almost exactly 100 points over the ensuing 3 hours, hitting a session low at 10697.25 (10700-ish) at 12:45 p.m. NY time. A very deliberate push into the close - generated in part by a break below $56 in Crude Oil prices - clawed the Grand Dame of stock indices back into the black for the session.

Within the blue-chip index, 19 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being General Motors (GM, +6.27% to $24.05) and General Electric (GE, +3.14% to $35.75), which accounted for 20 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 10 and were led by Walt Disney (DIS, -3.04% to $25.20) on poor earnings prospects and Boeing (BA, -1.03% to $66.95), with these two stocks contributing -12 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 426.5m shares to 84.8m.

The broader S&P500 added 5.47 points (0.44%), to 1248.27. Within the index, gainers numbered 318, while 156 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 2.1:1 in favour of the winners with 1527.48 million units traded in the winners as compared with 723.74 million traded in the losers .

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.61 points (0.3%), to close at 2227.07, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 3.46 points (0.21%), to end at 1679.85 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 60, while 37 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.3:1 in favour of the winners with 557.58 million traded in the winners compared to 428.20 million in the losers .

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.42 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was also chunky (over 2 bill), with 2.04 billion shares traded. That should interest people - since it looked very much like a distribution day

Major Market Statistics
Dow Jones Industrial Average10766.3346.110.43%
Nasdaq Composite2227.076.610.3%
NYSE Volume2.42bn--
Nasdaq Volume2.04bn--


My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 1.03%

  • General Electric (GE) +$1.09 (3.14%) to $35.75;
  • Citigroup (C) +$0.47 (0.98%) to $48.41;
  • Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.26 (0.53%) to $49.50;
  • I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.88 (1.01%) to $87.77;
  • Intel (INTC) +$0.19 (0.76%) to $25.30;
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.35 (2.01%) to $17.02;
  • eBay (EBAY) +$0.87 (1.99%) to $44.67;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +$1.19 (2.56%) to $47.74; and
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.22 (0.36%) to $62.12.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1952 to 1320 for a single-day A/D reading of 632; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1835 to 1211. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to 249.7 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 174.8.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1638.9 to 753 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1257.6 to 767.4 million shares.

187 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 135 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 174 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 52 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics

Advancing Volume (m)1638.911257.61
Declining Volume (m)752.99767.44
New Highs187174
New Lows13552

Market Sentiment Statistics
CBOE Volatility Index11.12-0.2-1.77%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index14.361.088.13%
Equity Put-Call Ratio0.6500%
10-day PCR0.6100%
SPX-VIX Ratio112.32.472.25%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 4.6 bps to 4.692%.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly lower: five year yields rose to 4.431%, and ten-year yields rose to 4.502%.

Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 8.0 bps wider at 19.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts rose to 75.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 100.5 bps for 20-years.

Credit spreads (spreads between corporate bonds of the same maturity profile but different creditworthiness) were mixed with the AAA-A spread on 20-years 5.0 bps tighter at 26.0 basis points and the 10-year AAA-A spread 8.0 bps wider at 10.0 bps.

Treasury Yields
UST 13wk (yld)3.91200%
UST 2Y (yld)4.380.030.69%
UST 5Y (yld)4.4310.040.91%
UST 10Y (yld)4.5020.0430.96%
UST 30Y (yld)4.6920.0460.99%

The Banks Index posted a rise of 0.64 points (0.62%), at 103.69; within the index,

  • Washington Mutual (WM) +$1.00 (2.41%) to $42.46;
  • Golden West Financial (GDW) +$1.42 (2.24%) to $64.72;
  • State Street (STT) +$0.74 (1.29%) to $58.27;
  • Citigroup (C) +$0.47 (0.98%) to $48.41; and
  • PNC Financial Services (PNC) +$0.56 (0.89%) to $63.55.

The Broker-dealer Index rose 0.13 points (0.07%), closing at 193.07; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

  • Raymond James (RJF) +$0.35 (0.95%) to $37.26;
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) +$1.17 (0.9%) to $131.58;
  • Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$0.49 (0.89%) to $55.50;
  • Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$0.89 (0.71%) to $127.00; and
  • Merrill Lynch (MER) +$0.43 (0.64%) to $67.26.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index rose 11.67 points (2.5%), closing at 478.46

  • Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) +$6.55 (12.97%) to $57.04;
  • National Semiconductors (NSM) +$1.20 (4.87%) to $25.82;
  • Altera (ALTR) +$0.59 (3.32%) to $18.38;
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.85 (3.28%) to $26.74; and
  • Micron Technology (MU) +$0.42 (3.05%) to $14.18.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $0.70 (0.14%) to close at $486.20 per ounce.

The Gold Bugs Index slid 1.46 points (0.59%), to 245.01

  • Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.11 (3.25%) to $3.27;
  • Glamis Gold (GLG) -$0.42 (1.86%) to $22.13;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.22 (1.72%) to $12.58;
  • Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.13 (1.71%) to $7.48; and
  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.29 (1.48%) to $19.34.

Silver fell by $0.04 (0.43%) to close at $8.07 per ounce. 

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.8 points (0.69%), at 115.1 points.

  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.22 (1.72%) to $12.58;
  • Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.13 (1.71%) to $7.48;
  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.29 (1.48%) to $19.34; and
  • Newmont Mining (NEM) -$0.53 (1.13%) to $46.33.
Precious Metals and Indices
PHLX Gold and Silver Index115.1-0.8-0.69%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index245.01-1.46-0.59%

Oil Market

Oil lost ground, shedding $0.20 per barrel, closing at $56.14 per barrel - after dipping as low as $55.40 during the session. It's now just one bad session away from the head and shoulders target first identified here back in September (before the head and shoulders ahd even formed). As I had subsequently written when promulgating the RantTarget for Crude, a bull market will generally result in the failure to reach short-side head & sholders targets - that is why the RantTarget was kept conservative (at $57-ish). I had also written - well in advance of the actual occurrence -  that if Crude fell more than about 50c below the RantTarget then lower prices were in the offing. And if Crude actuall gets down to the head & shoulders target, then the bull market in Energy is finished for a few months.  

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) added 3.2 points (0.33%), to end the session at 979.34

  • Repsol YPF (REP) +$0.50 (1.73%) to $29.40;
  • TotalFinaElf S.A. (TOT) +$1.93 (1.54%) to $126.93; and
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) +$0.87 (1.52%) to $58.25.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index advanced 0.05 points (0.03%), to 172.73

  • Halliburton (HAL) +$0.66 (1.09%) to $61.37;
  • Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.12 (0.97%) to $12.44; and
  • Cooper Cameron (CAM) +$0.69 (0.89%) to $78.39.
Energy Complex
Reuters CRB329.76-1.12-0.34%
Crude Oil Light Sweet56.14-0.2-0.35%
Heating Oil1.69620-0.05%
Natural Gas11.414-0.53-4.42%
Unleaded Gas1.46200.17%
AMEX Oil Index979.343.20.33%
Oil Service Index172.730.050.03%

Currency Markets

The USD is wobbling - and only some fairly obvious intraday support attempts are underpinning it. The Euro futures got back above 1.1800 quite solidly, but after hitting 1.1795 the spot EURUSD dropped a full cent in the following hour - you will never convince me that a move of that magnitude was generated just by nuffnuff ForEx traders.

After the downdraft, the Euro (and other major crosses) clawed back most of the drop, but the ECZ5 futures still closed below 1.1800 (at 1.1791 - although they settled at 1.1781 - anothe sign of deliberate suppression). IF you examine the CoT Chart for Euro you will see that dumb bulls are less than 50% of overall 'Dumb Money' (i.e., non-reportable positions), and furthermore that small trader long positions as a proportion of total open interest is  down at 30%. The same Open Interest configuration is present in other currency futures - indicating that small traders are piling on the USD bandwagon... which is usually a good sign of a swing high in USD.

USD Exchange Rates
US Dollar Index91.87-0.06-0.07%
Australian Dollar0.7339-0.0005-0.07%
Swiss Franc1.3147-0.0018-0.14%
Canadian Dollar0.8411-0.0011-0.13%