Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

SPIRant: What You Missed...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Let's see what you missed if you're not a SPISpy recipient... here's today's SPISpy e-mail in its entirety:

Guten Abend.

The Cash indices (XAO and XJO) appear to be forming intraday 'triangles'; the shape as it currently stands, favours a final formation that wil be asymmetric and will have a flat top at about XAO 4582, XJO 4633.

This type of triangle is routinely thought of as a continuation pattern - i.e., given the rise form the opening low thus far, the odds are usually thought to favour a break up out of the triangle.

I think that broader influences will ensure that the break upwards will be a false break; if SPI is still above 4630 at 1 p.m., short positions are the go - targets (4,8,10). Note the hard target for third-and-subsequent lots (instead of the usual 'open' target); that's because of the high likelihood of a closing spurt.



To examine what transpired, check out the chart below (I've managed to make it smaller this time). The red balloon is the short entry (at 1 p.m.) the blue arrow shows the exit. Since I prepared the chart, the SPI has bounced all the way back to 4630 - the beginning of he closing spurt I mentioned in the e-mail.

SPI 15-minute

Note that there was no counter-move attempts; recall two days ago I mentioned that this would happen when it was eventually discovered that there aren't a whole bunch of stops waiting to be tickled. 

In part, this is because I've reframed entries to "Short after time X at price Y or above" rather than the old "short before time X"; the lack of a concrete time window (after which any spikeleteer could assume "Well, they're all in now - let's got hunt their stops") makes interference difficult.

(Note - it's almost time for a loss though - there hasn't been one since November 21st).