Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

TootRant: Another Good Day (Night, for me)...

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I had a quick squizz at the SPI at close to midnight (French time), realising that the Budget had just bee ntabled in Oz. The surplus is a fabrication that would land a business owner in jail if they accounted the same way as the government (ignore accruals, treat the whole of the proceeds from asset sales as revenue). Still, that doesn't really matter: financial market types would not know howto read government acounting, and don't really give a shit about it anyway. All they want to know is where the core number is relative to everyone elses guesses.

No, the thing that mattered is that the after-hours SPI spiked like blazes, and thus set up another bunch of nuffnuffs for shearing and slaughter. As soon as I saw that the SPI had spiked to just above 5390, I sent this out...

Subject: SPI Went SILLY Overnight...

Date: Tue, 09 May 2006 17:01:38 -0500

From: SPISpy List Admin

To: undisclosed-recipients:;

Greetings SPISpyers.

Those of you who booked the big drop last trade (120 on half of all units >=3, and 70 on the other half) can short the open.

Others, wait for a failure. The end of the first half-hour of the cash (ASX) is the likely failure point if the market continues to rise at the open. If it tanks at the open then it should bounce from 11:15 p.m. into 1:30 p.m., which will be the optimal time for a secondary short. DO NOT TRY LONG-SIDE EXPOSURE.

Targets (6,12,open); again, this is one where the more heavily-capitalised traders will do well, but I urge the smone-lotters to stick with the targets. they might be annoyingly small, but better to pocket 3-6 points every trade thn to swing for the fences and get pants-ed.

Cheerio for now,


Well, it took ten minutes after the open for the three-lotters to bag the first six points (on unit 1), whereas others had to wait until 10:30 to enter and then another ten minutes before their target 1 was hit. Six minutes later, target 2 was hit, and three-lotters continued the rise to the point where they currently sit on 50-odd points of gain on units 3 and above (all SPISpyers lock in target profits on the first 2 units)

So, since the post about ten days ago in which a short was advocated at 5340 (and 120 points per contract was taken by more than a few three-lotters), the SPI has actually RISEN 1 point (it is currently at 5341 in the SYCOM market), and yet SPISpyer 3-lotters have pocketed over 175 points per contract (on just two trades). Those trading more than three only averaged about 85 points on the first trade (a trailing stop was hit), and are sitting on 60 points on this one.

The pillage continues - we are still loss-less since November 21st last year. And since I have now got my timing back, we're only having to 'ride' negative excursions of a point or two. Tasty.

Gotta go - Skeckie is trying to eat my cake.