Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

PrepRant: It's ON, Baby...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

So.I've got this brother, right. He is an absolute man-mountain (about 6'7" if he ever stands up straight, and 125kg environs), and - pursuant to that - he has gotten away with pretending to be a big lunk lo these twenty years. He is smarter than about 95% of the people you'll ever meet, but one day when he was in his teens, he discovered that people's expectations dropped if you pretended to be a big likeable lunk. So he figured - like a good old-fashioned profit-maximising individual - 'I can be liked, and not have to "put in" as far as thinking-out-loud is concerned.' And he is liked - I cant think of two people who have a bad word to say about him (excluding our mother when he used to lumber Nanna with the kids).

What is the point of that paragraph, I hear you ask. Simply put, it is that the same optimisation problem (be as happy as you can with as little effort as possible) yields dramatically different results depending on your preferences. Lunk had a preference for being well-thought of with as little intellectual effort as possible... he was not interested in being thought of as a bright kid. His 'big brother' (I am the eldest) has a different preference map, which may or may not be better. A fortiori I think it's better, but I don't live Lunk's life.

OK... this seems to be leading somewhere, I hear you thinking.

Point is, all these poor schlubs who are getting raped by the deliberately induced mortgage meltdown, are not per se dumb or ignorant. Maybe they just thought at some point in their lives... "Y'know what? I think I'll just tune out for a bit and see how things go." I wish George Bush and Phony Blair had done that. Sadly, the sorts of people who do tube out, are 'normal' rather than psychotic suppressed homosexuals (and Bush and Blair are only 'suppressed' as it relates to public proclamation of their preference for bums over girls' bits).

Sure, US markets are sagging irrespective of the massive amounts of dough being pumped in by the Fed (notice how NOW people are starting to watch the repo numbers... four years after I said they mattered for short-term momentum- and todays were all in Agency and mortgage backed for you dolts who don't know how to read them and expected the market to respond to a large repo number).

Sure, people who are new to contrarianism think they've found a new bandwagon to get on ("Credit Crunch and Long-term decline"). Frankly, they can all go fuck themselves. To me they are like the wankers who are anti-war now that Iraq is the biggest fuckup since George Bush's freshman year at Yale. Get in FRONT of the game, you jerkwads.

The next market move will be a move back towards (and possibly exceeding, slightly) the old highs... just to make all these new bearish know-it-all motherfuckers look stupid. Then when they are all in a circle jerking off to the tune of the "We all said Ben Bernanke is a Genius", they will get a new arsehole torn for them. Well, not for them, exactly, because these subhuman pustules take their income in the form of fees off other peoples money... they are not silly enough to believe their own bullshit and back it with their own dough.

Monday is kickoff for the new season. And I am not in the best of moods...