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Ha! Take that, Mossad. (Or whichever diabolical set of cretins tried to kibosh your Beloved GT in his quest to disseminate his brainy thinkitudes all over the intarwebs,,,)
Teh wisdom of your Beloved GT appears all over the internets tubes. Sometimes I get rather tired and emotional after a litre or two of 70 centime Rose, and I often type streams of consciousness in the most interesting places.For example, consider This post on Commonreams.org (search for "Transom" in the Comments) - I have highlighted the bit that ought to make you aware of just how much you ought to love my braininess, but the whole comment is GOLD (for the record, Crude Oil on June 30th was trading at above $141 a barrel on all 2008 contracts)...
GeoffreyTransom June 30th, 2008 7:59 am
Hey there Galen
I don’t think we can be quiet so dismissive of the abiotic oil hypothesis just yet. I say this as someone who has been ‘long’ oil futures (yes, I am a dreaded speculator) pretty much non-stop since 2002 (when WTI was $19 a barrel). So I am no oil bear, believe me (although I am utterly bearish on the US’s long term future, and have been since 1999 - the US is now, where Britain was in 1919).
The presence of biological residue in extracted oil is not terribly surprising - there is biological residue pretty much everywhere. Inferring biological origin based on biological residue is like saying bears are made from poo because when you examine a bear you can bet there will be traces of poo on it. Now if someone was to say that poo (at least, the poo found on bears) is made from bears I would be more in agreement…
As I say - I am agnostic about the AOH; in the ordinary course of events my natural cynicism would be ringing alarm bells about anything that seems to offer *relative* abundance of ANY resource (ten years of training as a conservative economist makes one somewhat prone to dismiss anything as probably pie-in-the-sky).
I am not a geologist, but I have read stuff by people who are, and it genuinely seems that the jury is still out.
In any case, the abiotic generation of oil does NOT imply that it can withstand any extraction rate we choose to impose upon it; we will get to the bottom of the barrel if it is extracted faster than it is produced. The AOH does not declare that oil can be extracted ad libitum - just that, once it is extracted, the reserves will refill faster than is assumed under the conventional (Getty) hypothesis… i.e., under the AOH we don’t have to wait for a bunch of dinosaurs and trees to melt.
I don’t know why it is, but North Americans seem to have this strange ‘binary’ view of things… i.e., if one hypothesis means that oil is relatively scarce, ANY cmpeting hypothesis MUST mean that oil is absolutely abundant. Not so.
Anyhow - the next big move for oil (by which I mean a move that lasts 2-3 weeks and moves the price 15-20 bucks a barrel) will be DOWN.
Once all the nuffnuffs (small, thinly funded speculators who are prone to enter trends just as they are finishing) are on the same side of the boat, the Big Boyz will gut them like fish.
That said, I will not ’short’ oil (nor gold, nor the Euro)… the reason for that is simple - there is a reasonable probability that the Israeli government or the Cheney Administration are going to start blowing up other bits of the Cradle of Civilisation - at which time the Iranians will sink a couple of US aircrat carriers in the Straits of Hormuz and oil will hit $350-400 a barrel in a week (to see why, read up on the SS-NX-22 Yahkonts anti-shipping missile, and the lack of effective countermeasures in the US defensive arsenal).
And if Darth ‘dick’ Cheney and his lunatic offsiders bomb Isfahan and Natanz, that price spike will happen regardless as to whether oil is abiotic or not.
Cheerio
GT
France
OK - you may transmit your applause in the form of Euro-denominated PayPal transfers to transom1@yahoo.com (my ages-old Yahoo address which will stop working the moment any one of you CIA-tracked adherents uses it).
OK. now that some of you plan to erect statues in my honour (or perhaps start a religion - it's no less tha nI deserve, dammit)... as I say, given all that. let's get back to the job at hand...
Let's get back to US markets (which, after a nuffie orgasm that resulted in a CCI divergence precisely of the type I mentioned yesterday... gave up a 120-point Dow takedown in the 90 minutes thereafter. Aaaah.... )
Economic News
Nothing - except some Fed rubbish. Who cares what a bunch of geriatric bureaucrats thought a month ago? Not me.
In fact in a just Universe they should care what I thought a month ago. Where was teh Chairman of teh Fed on oil prices on June 30th? Was he calling for a 15 buck fall? Nah - didn't think so. He can kiss my peachy white buttcheeks... but only if he pays for hte privilege (I don't want beard-rash on my bum).
Fed Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase today - a 1 Day repurchase totalling $6.75bn, with $5.627bn in Treasury-backed collateral, at a weighted average rate of 1.941%. So no surprises to Rant readers (more than $5 bill in T-backed, a decent discount to Fed Funds, and a little moonshot at 10 a.m. NY time as predicted by about five dozen prior USRants - more genius).
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 29.88 points (0.26%) to 11632.38 points. The index high for the day was 11698.17, set at about 10:40 a.m.; the low was 11558.29 set about 15 minutes after the open. Total volume traded in the index was 871.77m units. Within the index, 21 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 766.56m units; 9 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 105.21m units.
Today the index rose by 29.88 points (0.26%) to 11632.4 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- AIG (AIG) +1.96 (7%) to $30.1 on volume of 44.97m shares;
- Home Depot (HD) +1.08 (4.5%) to $25.03 on volume of 18.71m shares;
- Pfizer (PFE) +0.74 (4%) to $19.09 on volume of 42.97m shares;
- AT&T (T) +1.24 (3.9%) to $33.06 on volume of 40.34m shares; and
- American Express (AXP) +1.35 (3.6%) to $39.34 on volume of 14.3m shares.
The S&P500 Index advanced +5.18 points (0.41%) to 1282.18 points. Index volume was 3914.53m units. Within the index, 316 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 2774.82m units; 177 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 1107.94m units. Best performed in the index were -
- Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) +50.9 (18.2%) to $331.13 on volume of 2.64m shares;
- XL Capital (XL) +3.56 (18.1%) to $23.24 on volume of 4.54m shares;
- MBIA Inc. (MBI) +0.91 (16.4%) to $6.46 on volume of 6.42m shares;
- First Horizon National (FHN) +1.37 (14.8%) to $10.62 on volume of 10.3m shares; and
- EMC Corp. (EMC) +1.71 (13.7%) to $14.17 on volume of 107.67m shares.
A Total of 3469 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4.06 billion shares if you believe the NYSE's data (I don't - not a bit of it). A total of 2105 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 2.75 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 1284 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.28 billion shares. 51 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 93 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced +21.92 points (0.95%) to 2325.88 points; the Nasdaq100 advanced +23.94 points (1.31%) to 1845.56 points. Index volume within the NDX was 1.14bn units. Within the index, 67 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 870.59m units; 33 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 277.27m units. Contributing to the advance were -
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) +50.9 (18.2%) to $331.13 on volume of 2.64m shares;
- Level 3 Communications (LVLT) +0.43 (13.7%) to $3.56 on volume of 30.45m shares;
- Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) +0.3 (12.6%) to $2.68 on volume of 74.41m shares;
- UAL (UAUA) +0.94 (11.2%) to $9.35 on volume of 47.5m shares; and
- NII Holdings (NIHD) +5.07 (10.7%) to $52.44 on volume of 10.82m shares.
Over on the Nasdaq 3042 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.66 billion shares. A total of 1663 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.71 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 1265 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 0.92 billion shares. 78 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 83 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
The CBOE Volatility Index advanced +0.26 points (1.23%) to 21.44 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index advanced +0.35 points (1.29%) to 27.44 points.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 11632.38 | +29.88 | 0.26% |
| S&P500 Index | 1282.18 | +5.18 | 0.41% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2325.88 | +21.92 | 0.95% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1845.56 | +23.94 | 1.31% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 21.44 | +0.26 | 1.23% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 27.44 | +0.35 | 1.29% |
Of the 30 Dow components, 21 gained ground for the day, with total upside volume of 766.88m units. 9 Dow components suffered losses for the day, with total volume in declining index components of 105.22m units.
Major Advancers in the Dow were
- AIG (AIG) +1.96 (7%) to $30.1 on volume of 45.1m units
- Home Depot (HD) +1.08 (4.5%) to $25.03 on volume of 18.7m units
- Pfizer (PFE) +0.74 (4%) to $19.09 on volume of 43m units
- AT&T (T) +1.24 (3.9%) to $33.06 on volume of 40.4m units
- American Express (AXP) +1.35 (3.6%) to $39.34 on volume of 14.3m units
Major Decliners in the Dow were
- Boeing (BA) -2.54 (3.7%) to $66.72 on volume of 10.9m units
- Chevron (CVX) -2.98 (3.5%) to $82.65 on volume of 9.4m units
- Caterpillar (CAT) -2.56 (3.4%) to $72.42 on volume of 7.2m units
- Alcoa (AA) -1.15 (3.4%) to $32.73 on volume of 6.1m units
- Exxon-Mobil (XOM) -1.87 (2.3%) to $80.99 on volume of 18.5m units
Most Traded Dow stocks were
- Bank Of America (BAC) +1.09 (3.4%) to $33.44 on volume of 138.6m units
- Citigroup (C) +0.23 (1.1%) to $21.12 on volume of 137.3m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.63 (2.4%) to $26.43 on volume of 76.7m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.21 (1%) to $22.3 on volume of 55.8m units
- General Electric (GE) +0.83 (2.9%) to $29.33 on volume of 53.3m units
Precious Metals
Precious metals futures got caned. Check past posts which refer to Platinum 'rolling over' and you will see that you could easily have seen this coming -
| Precious Metals Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 918 | -30.5 | -3.22 |
| Silver | 17.38 | -0.625 | -3.47 |
| Palladium | 384.5 | -27 | -6.56 |
| Platinum | 1752 | -56.2 | -3.11 |
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 63.7m units. Within the index, 0 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 0m units; 16 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 63.7m units.
Today the index fell by 9.74 points (5.26%) to 175.3 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Kinroos Gold (KGC) -1.82 (8.1%) to $20.73 on volume of 4.87m shares;
- Barrick Gold (ABX) -3.71 (7.8%) to $43.92 on volume of 7.62m shares;
- Yamana Gold (AUY) -1.04 (7.6%) to $12.73 on volume of 11.58m shares;
- GoldCorp (GG) -2.82 (6.5%) to $40.64 on volume of 7.17m shares; and
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) -4.02 (5.9%) to $63.9 on volume of 2.2m shares.
Energy Complex
Energy futures just keep getting caned - and why not, given that it was utterly foreseeable (I foreseed it, as the prefatory remarks show) -
| Energy Futures | |||
| Commodity | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Crude Oil | 124.19 | -4.23 | -3.29 |
| Heating Oil | 3.5726 | -0.1307 | -3.53 |
| Natural Gas | 9.727 | -0.34 | -3.38 |
| Gasoline RBOB | 3.03 | -0.117 | -3.72 |
| Ethanol | 2.3 | 0.02 | 0.88 |
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 75.61m units. Within the index, 0 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 0m units; 15 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 75.61m units.
Today the index fell by 15.75 points (4.82%) to 310.94 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Rowan Co (RDC) -3.07 (6.9%) to $41.49 on volume of 3.2m shares;
- Nabors Industries (NBR) -2.7 (6.4%) to $39.21 on volume of 5.76m shares;
- Transocean Inc (RIG) -8.97 (6.1%) to $137.71 on volume of 6.11m shares;
- Weatherford International (WFT) -2.22 (5.8%) to $36.15 on volume of 9.19m shares; and
- Noble Corp (NE) -3.21 (5.7%) to $52.76 on volume of 3.69m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 3.3%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) +0.83 (2.91%) to $29.33 on volume of 53.29m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.23 (1.1%) to $21.12 on volume of 137.33m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) -0.97 (1.64%) to $58.09 on volume of 30.82m units.
- IBM (IBM) -0.48 (0.37%) to $129.52 on volume of 5.84m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.21 (0.95%) to $22.30 on volume of 55.77m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.27 (1.23%) to $22.17 on volume of 46.44m units.
- Google (GOOG) +12.11 (2.54%) to $489.22 on volume of 4.79m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +1.59 (11.86%) to $15.00 on volume of 87.56m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +1.10 (11.34%) to $10.80 on volume of 103.45m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 975.23m units. Within the index, 16 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 730.21m units; 8 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 245.02m units.
Today the index rose by 0.65 points (0.96%) to 68.34 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Suntrust Banks (STI) +3.55 (9%) to $43.21 on volume of 10.55m shares;
- National City (NCC) +0.34 (7.8%) to $4.71 on volume of 37.8m shares;
- New M&I Corporation (MI) +0.91 (6%) to $16.19 on volume of 5.48m shares;
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) +1.46 (5.2%) to $29.75 on volume of 9.57m shares; and
- Wachovia (WB) +0.86 (5.1%) to $17.65 on volume of 168.35m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 258.93m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 189.68m units; 3 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 52.2m units.
Today the index rose by 4.9 points (1.42%) to 350.35 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Sandisk (SNDK) +0.95 (7%) to $14.57 on volume of 23.88m shares;
- ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.7 (6.6%) to $11.34 on volume of 2.56m shares;
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.26 (5.9%) to $4.67 on volume of 11.55m shares;
- Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.43 (5.7%) to $7.96 on volume of 2.49m shares; and
- Teradyne (TER) +0.48 (4.8%) to $10.48 on volume of 2.59m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 83.13m units. Within the index, 15 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 72.05m units; 2 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 11.08m units.
Today the index rose by 5.43 points (1.51%) to 365.32 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- General Dynamics (GD) +5.82 (7%) to $89.27 on volume of 3.09m shares;
- Gencorp (GY) +0.3 (3.6%) to $8.59 on volume of 0.16m shares;
- General Electric (GE) +0.83 (2.9%) to $29.33 on volume of 53.29m shares;
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) +2.96 (2.8%) to $106.84 on volume of 1.45m shares; and
- L-3 Holdings (LLL) +2.46 (2.6%) to $95.65 on volume of 0.57m shares.
Currency Futures
Currency futures performed as follows -
| Currency Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 73.015 | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| Euro FX | 1.5633 | -0.0107 | -0.68 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.963 | -0.0077 | -0.79 |
| Australian Dollar | 0.9545 | -0.0098 | -1.02 |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.9891 | -0.002 | -0.2 |
| Japanese Yen | 0.9294 | -0.0062 | -0.66 |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.7437 | -0.0089 | -1.18 |
