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EDIT (10:55 p.m. Froggish time, July 23 - i.e., 6:55 a.m. Strayan Time, July 24th) - ARSING Blogger won't let me put my latest GENIUS into the internets tubes. It seems that perhaps I can edit past posts, which is why I am editing this one (eleventy!!) so as to let youse all know that the next USRant is a ball-tearer; as good as watching like Ricky Barham's Manassa-like run down the wing (or David Twomey's through the centre, for that matter), but without the arse-biting shorts.
Tell your chums to look at it - it reflects a monumental ego given full rein, but also shows you the Wisdom of Your Beloved GT...
How Pavlov
would be proud (if the story about his dog-training experiments is
true). The Australian CPI comes out worse than expected - 4.5% versus a
consensus estimate of 4.3%, but since the papers and newswires had
already decided that the Reverse
Bank of Straya is unlikely to continue to raise rates,
they just ran the story anyhow... saying that while the CPI was worse
than expected, it could have been even more worser. Eleventy! That sort of logic has its spiritual home in politics, not economics.
So why bother with consensus estimates?
No matter - the Reserve will probably raise rates. But didn't
the interest-sensitive stocks just love the pleasant fiction! Execs at
Property Trusts, Banks, and the heavily-indebted must be scrambling to
organise the sale of their private stashes of stock, because the
opportunity to take advantage of this sort of idiocy comes once in a
career.
From time to time I wonder how things would have panned out if
I had taken the Honours clerkship I was awarded by the Reverse Bank;
the Reasearch team there did have some talent (David Gruen being chief
among them).
Thankfully I avoided the possibility of finding out, as I
managed to get involved in a far more interesting project
(reverse-engineering the Commonwealth Treasury's TRYM model... took me
six weeks, and the version I have on my PC right here still runs
(inside a 16-bit DOS compatibility emulator, since the
Equation Solving Package that The Mighty Horridge wrote has not, to my
knowledge, moved even to a 32-bit version).
Besides, a nascent hatred of bureaucracy was already beating in the Transom breast, and to have walked into the very maw of the bureaucratic beast - to have suckled at the taxpayer teat - would have been to abandon principles before they had even taken form. My name isn't Greenspan, so I didn't do it.
That little TRYM project was great fun (I was about to start my
Honours year at the time), and once we got the thing working I was able
to do a lot of dickering about with the way expectations were
formed e.g.,
- introducing Model-Consistent Expectations,
- changing the Monetary Policy Reaction Function,
My thinking was - if a thing is meant to be a system, it is not acceptable in my book to estimate the parameters on an equation-by-equation method. Hell, I even had a crack at trying to use a Bayesian approach to the estimation (too hard at the time). Ahhh, the idealism of youth (well, late youth... OK, I was over 30).
And all this culminated in Treasury being interested in how we got Rational Expectations to work - in their model! You can still find Powell, Malakellis, Transom and Marshall on the Treasury website.
Aaaaahhhh... mem-orieeeeeees.
But I digress. Inflation is rising; it will get worse; the Reverse Bank will have no option but to raise rates again.
So mote it be.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose strongly, registering a gain of 85.7 points (1.69%), finishing at 5161.6 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5209.6 at 1:54 pm, while the low for the day was 5075.6 - the prior close. The traded low was 5114.5, and occurred at 10:32 am Sydney time (and again at 10:41 a.m.).Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.58 billion units, 12.1% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1357 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 684 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 854.8m units. 399 stocks were dragged into the red zone for the session, with aggregate volume traded of 610.7m shares.
Of the 494 All Ordinaries components, 290 rose while 134 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.5:1, with 642.83m shares traded in gainers while 260.83m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - managed a solid gain, adding 99.7 points (1.99%), closing out the session at 5105.3 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 5161.60 | 85.70 (1.7%) |
| ASX 50 | 5015.20 | 104.30 (2.1%) |
| ASX 200 | 5105.30 | 99.70 (2.0%) |
| ASX 300 | 5099.80 | 98.70 (2.0%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4948.60 | 68.60 (1.4%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 2925.90 | 43.40 (1.5%) |
| ASX 20 | 2888.00 | 65.20 (2.3%) |
| ASX 100 | 4136.20 | 82.10 (2.0%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 65.2 points (2.31%), closing out the session at 2888 points.
Among the 20 big guns, 15 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 5 closed lower for the session. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 184.58m units; 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 113.92m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 70.67m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Macquarie Group Limited (MQG), +$5.26 (11.29%) to $51.85 on volume of 5m shares;
- Stockland (SGP), +$0.47 (9.57%) to $5.38 on volume of 12.1m shares;
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$1.41 (6.86%) to $21.97 on volume of 13.3m shares;
- National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), +$1.85 (6.69%) to $29.50 on volume of 12.6m shares; and
- St George Bank Limited (SGB), +$1.75 (6.49%) to $28.70 on volume of 2.9m shares.
- Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL), -$1.13 (1.98%) to $55.97 on volume of 2.2m shares;
- Telstra Corporation Limited. (TLS), -$0.06 (1.36%) to $4.34 on volume of 50.2m shares;
- Woolworths Limited (WOW), -$0.26 (1.01%) to $25.61 on volume of 3.6m shares;
- BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), -$0.26 (0.67%) to $38.74 on volume of 13.3m shares; and
- Rio Tinto Limited (RIO), -$0.57 (0.47%) to $120.13 on volume of 1.2m shares.
The Small Ords performed solidly, in moving up 43.4 points (1.51%), closing out the session at 2925.9 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 120 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 59 closed lower for the session.
The 195 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 282.41m units: volume in the 120 gainers totalling 163.23m shares, with trade totalling 97.37m units in the index's 59 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), +$0.05 (21.95%) to $0.25 on volume of 8.2m shares;
- City Pacific Limited (CIY), +$0.05 (17.54%) to $0.34 on volume of 564.6 thousand shares;
- Charter Hall Group (CHC), +$0.11 (13.66%) to $0.92 on volume of 6.3m shares;
- Just Group Limited (JST), +$0.39 (13.4%) to $3.30 on volume of 3.8m shares; and
- UXC Limited (UXC), +$0.12 (13.04%) to $1.04 on volume of 256.3 thousand shares.
- Aditya Birla Minerals limited (ABY), -$0.22 (11.52%) to $1.69 on volume of 2.4m shares;
- Sundance Resources Limited (SDL), -$0.03 (8.62%) to $0.27 on volume of 25.7m shares;
- Felix Resources Limited (FLX), -$1.04 (5.83%) to $16.80 on volume of 736.1 thousand shares;
- Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.02 (5.56%) to $0.26 on volume of 4.1m shares; and
- Admiralty Resources NL (ADY), -$0.01 (5.26%) to $0.18 on volume of 7m shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 5161.6 | 85.7 | 1.69 | 948.8m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 5015.2 | 104.3 | 2.12 | 360.2m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 5105.3 | 99.7 | 1.99 | 804.9m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 5099.8 | 98.7 | 1.97 | 877.3m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4948.6 | 68.6 | 1.41 | 234.7m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 2925.9 | 43.4 | 1.51 | 282.4m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2888 | 65.2 | 2.31 | 184.6m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 4136.2 | 82.1 | 2.03 | 594.9m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 15 | 79 | 148 | 290 | 120 | 684 |
| Declines | 5 | 18 | 43 | 134 | 59 | 399 |
| Advancing Volume | 113.9m | 444.8m | 566.9m | 642.8m | 163.2m | 854.8m |
| Declining Volume | 70.7m | 139.3m | 212.9m | 260.8m | 97.4m | 610.7m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, 8 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 3 lost ground.The best performing index was Property Trusts (XPJ), which added 78.5 points (5.95%) to 1396.9 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 195.67m units; 18 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 170.87m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 24.8m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), +$0.05 (21.95%) to $0.25 on volume of 8.2m shares;
- Abacus Property Group (ABP), +$0.12 (10.6%) to $1.20 on volume of 1.2m shares;
- Mirvac Group (MGR), +$0.24 (10.39%) to $2.55 on volume of 25.4m shares;
- Stockland (SGP), +$0.47 (9.57%) to $5.38 on volume of 12.1m shares; and
- GPT Group (GPT), +$0.12 (7.32%) to $1.76 on volume of 19.8m shares.
- Macquarie Group Limited (MQG), +$5.26 (11.29%) to $51.85 on volume of 5m shares;
- HFA Holdings Limited (HFA), +$0.11 (10.68%) to $1.14 on volume of 1.7m shares;
- Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.10 (10.36%) to $1.07 on volume of 2.7m shares;
- Lend Lease Corporation Limited (LLC), +$0.81 (8.53%) to $10.31 on volume of 1.8m shares; and
- IOOF Holdings Limited (IFL), +$0.44 (8.18%) to $5.82 on volume of 64 thousand shares.
- NRW Holdings Limited (NWH), +$0.16 (9.2%) to $1.90 on volume of 720.1 thousand shares;
- Hills Industries Limited (HIL), +$0.26 (7.95%) to $3.53 on volume of 433.7 thousand shares;
- Virgin Blue Holdings Limited (VBA), +$0.05 (6.92%) to $0.70 on volume of 1.7m shares;
- Qantas Airways Limited (QAN), +$0.21 (6.19%) to $3.60 on volume of 17.1m shares; and
- Australian Infrastructure Fund (AIX), +$0.13 (5.99%) to $2.30 on volume of 1.3m shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Energy (XEJ), which slid 223.8 points (1.28%) to 17234.4 points. The 17 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 52.42m units; The 10 decliners had volume traded totalling 20.31m units, and 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 25.53m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Felix Resources Limited (FLX), -$1.04 (5.83%) to $16.80 on volume of 736.1 thousand shares;
- Santos Limited (STO), -$1.01 (5.43%) to $17.58 on volume of 3.6m shares;
- Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL), -$1.13 (1.98%) to $55.97 on volume of 2.2m shares;
- Nexus Energy Limited (NXS), -$0.03 (1.92%) to $1.28 on volume of 2.2m shares; and
- Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY), -$0.07 (1.46%) to $4.73 on volume of 3.1m shares.
- Sundance Resources Limited (SDL), -$0.03 (8.62%) to $0.27 on volume of 25.7m shares;
- Lihir Gold Limited (LGL), -$0.16 (5.11%) to $2.97 on volume of 19.6m shares;
- Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM), -$1.12 (3.46%) to $31.28 on volume of 4.3m shares;
- Straits Resources Limited (SRL), -$0.19 (3.29%) to $5.58 on volume of 1.6m shares; and
- Murchison Metals Ltd (MMX), -$0.1 (3.28%) to $2.95 on volume of 916 thousand shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1396.9 | 78.5 | 5.95 | 196m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 5235.7 | 269 | 5.42 | 114m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 4756.8 | 136.9 | 2.96 | 90m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1659.4 | 45.2 | 2.8 | 46m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 8221.2 | 204.1 | 2.55 | 10m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 518.4 | 9.9 | 1.95 | 2m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5517.6 | 98.7 | 1.82 | 36m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 7132.2 | 10.1 | 0.14 | 38m |
| XMJ | Materials | 13981.2 | -87.3 | -0.62 | 167m |
| XEJ | Energy | 17234.4 | -223.8 | -1.28 | 52m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1479.4 | -25.5 | -1.69 | 54m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation Limited. | 4.34 | -0.06 | -1.36 | 50.2m |
| SDL | Sundance Resources Limited | 0.27 | -0.03 | -8.62 | 25.7m |
| MGR | Mirvac Group | 2.55 | 0.24 | 10.39 | 25.4m |
| BBI | Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group | 0.90 | 0.02 | 1.69 | 19.8m |
| GPT | GPT Group | 1.76 | 0.12 | 7.32 | 19.8m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDT | Macquarie DDR Trust | 0.25 | 0.05 | 21.95 | 8.2m |
| CIY | City Pacific Limited | 0.34 | 0.05 | 17.54 | 564.6k |
| TWO | Talent2 International Limited | 1.15 | 0.17 | 16.84 | 116k |
| CHC | Charter Hall Group | 0.92 | 0.11 | 13.66 | 6.3m |
| JST | Just Group Limited | 3.30 | 0.39 | 13.4 | 3.8m |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIM | Aim Resources Limited | 0.03 | 0.00 | -12.12 | 8.6m |
| ABY | Aditya Birla Minerals limited | 1.69 | -0.22 | -11.52 | 2.4m |
| SDL | Sundance Resources Limited | 0.27 | -0.03 | -8.62 | 25.7m |
| SHV | Select Harvests Limited | 5.20 | -0.48 | -8.45 | 2.8k |
| CFU | Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited | 0.39 | -0.03 | -7.14 | 490.4k |
