Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

USRant: Sometimes Bad is Bad...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Wachovia declares that it managed to piss away a little under 9 billion dollars of shareholders' money (that's almost a month worth of Iraq War), but the CEO said words to the effect that they probably won't have to sell stockto raise capital... yeah right. What are they going to do - contract their loan book to account for the loss of capitalisation? Is the goose who oversaw this monumental destruction of value going to sacrifice his bonuses from the past years PLUS his golden parachute - by way of a mea culpa? Is he my arse!

It's not super-important either way - all we need is a nice new short setup (which will probably happen during the first hour of the US session tomorrow) and we will get set short again (having gone long the other day for a very short term (intraday) trade, from an S&P level of 1204.75). 

As usual, we'll be on  the lookout for a nice CCI divergence coupled with some other characteristics that make life relatively low-stress.

Economic News

No economic news of any consequence today...

Fed Open Market Operations

It's clear that the Fed is still having to be active in the MBS market - as evidenced by a massive repo in Mortgage Backed securities today.

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations:

  • a 28 Day repurchase of $20bn, undertaken entirely in Mortgage-backed collateral; and
  • a 1 Day repurchase totalling $7.25bn, with $1.702bn in Treasury-backed collateral, with a weighted average rate of 1.885%.
Headline Indices

Insert material here

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +135.16 points (1.18%) to 11602.50 points; having been below 11500 with 45 minuts let to go in the session before a short-covering moonshot into the closes. 

The index high for the day was 11615.44 within ten minutes of the closing bell, while the low was 11387.39 set about twenty minutes into the session. 

At the open the nuffnuffs thought that Wachovia's shocking loss was bad news. Silly duffers - don't you know that up is down, losses are gains if you promise they won't happen again (until next time), and Dick 'dick' Cheney doesn't get off on other people's pain. In other words, it's Bizarro Day. If I was not tired, I would slap on a new short in the S&P futures the moment the market re-opens; such a position might have to endure a day of pain, but it will pay off thereafter. But I am buggered so I'm off to bed once this is stickytaped into the internets tubes.

Total volume traded in the Dow was 831.08m units. Within the index, 21 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 593.25m units; 8 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 172.96m units.

Contributing to the advance were -

  • Bank Of America (BAC) +3.79 (13.3%) to $32.35 on volume of 109.74m shares;
  • General Motors (GM) +1.23 (9.4%) to $14.32 on volume of 10.5m shares;
  • Citigroup (C) +1.2 (6.1%) to $20.89 on volume of 137.12m shares;
  • AIG (AIG) +1.61 (6.1%) to $28.14 on volume of 25.61m shares; and
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.21 (5.7%) to $40.86 on volume of 49.11m shares.

The S&P500 Index advanced +17.00 points (1.35%) to 1277.00 points. The total volume traded in the index was 3751.76m units. Within the index, 363 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 2519.67m units; 131 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 1124.18m units.

Major advancers within the S&P appear below. Notice Wachovia - results worse than expected, stock up 20-odd percent simply because the CEO was prepared to say that they won't have to raise capital. I call Bullshit on t hat, and when they later announce that they WILL have to raise capital, this chucklehead ought to be prosecuted. Afte all, if spreading bearish rumours is to be punished, then crap like that ought to be as well. 

  • Wachovia Corp. (New) (WB) +3.61 (27.4%) to $16.79 on volume of 197.09m shares;
  • SunTrust Banks (STI) +5.52 (16.2%) to $39.66 on volume of 16.18m shares;
  • First Horizon National (FHN) +1.28 (16.1%) to $9.24 on volume of 5.43m shares;
  • Legg Mason (LM) +4.41 (13.6%) to $36.72 on volume of 2.47m shares; and
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.93 (13.3%) to $7.9 on volume of 14.57m shares.

Total of 3451 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 3.92 billion shares. Overall, 2315 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 2.67 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 1059 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.21 billion shares. 37 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 105 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

Over on the Nasdaq 3019 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.48 billion shares. A total of 1948 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.49 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 975 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 0.92 billion shares. 68 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 105 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 24.43 points (1.07%) to 2303.96 points, and the Nasdaq100 added a scant 1.86 points (0.1%) to 1821.62 points. Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 index was 1098.5m units. Within the index, 63 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 590.61m units; 36 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 443.01m units.

Take a look at the madness in UAL shares...-

  • UAL (UAUA) +3.42 (68.5%) to $8.41 on volume of 47.28m shares;
  • Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) +2.7 (8.6%) to $34.07 on volume of 1.95m shares;
  • Level 3 Communications (LVLT) +0.24 (8.3%) to $3.13 on volume of 22.12m shares;
  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) +1.97 (7.4%) to $28.57 on volume of 5.93m shares; and
  • Starbucks (SBUX) +1.04 (7.4%) to $15.13 on volume of 15.29m shares.

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The CBOE Volatility Index lost 1.96 points (8.5%) to 21.09 pointsand the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 2.41 points (8.12%) to 27.28 points.




Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11602.50 +135.16 1.18%
S&P500 Index 1277.00 +17.00 1.35%
Nasdaq Composite 2303.96 +24.43 1.07%
Nasdaq100 1821.62 +1.86 0.1%
CBOE Volatility Index 21.09 -1.96 -8.5%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 27.28 -2.41 -8.12%

Of the 30 Dow components, 21 gained ground for the day, with total upside volume of 593.28m units. 8 Dow components suffered losses for the day, with total volume in declining index components of 172.99m units.

Major Advancers in the Dow were

  • Bank Of America (BAC) +3.79 (13.3%) to $32.35 on volume of 109.7m units
  • General Motors (GM) +1.23 (9.4%) to $14.32 on volume of 10.5m units
  • Citigroup (C) +1.2 (6.1%) to $20.89 on volume of 137.1m units
  • AIG (AIG) +1.61 (6.1%) to $28.14 on volume of 25.6m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.21 (5.7%) to $40.86 on volume of 49.1m units

Major Decliners in the Dow were

  • Merck (MRK) -4 (11.3%) to $31.33 on volume of 50.9m units
  • American Express (AXP) -2.91 (7.1%) to $37.99 on volume of 46.7m units
  • Chevron (CVX) -1.28 (1.5%) to $85.63 on volume of 10m units
  • Verizon (VZ) -0.47 (1.3%) to $34.68 on volume of 17.5m units
  • Disney Corp (DIS) -0.08 (0.3%) to $30.41 on volume of 10.9m units

Most Traded Dow stocks were

  • Citigroup (C) +1.2 (6.1%) to $20.89 on volume of 137.1m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +3.79 (13.3%) to $32.35 on volume of 109.7m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.16 (0.6%) to $25.8 on volume of 87.6m units
  • Intel (INTC) unchanged at $22.09 on volume of 64.9m units
  • Merck (MRK) --4 (11.3%) to $31.33 on volume of 50.9m units
Precious Metals

I've mentioned before tht Platinum was the harbinger for the next little while in the Precious Patch. Platinum refuses to lift its head and until the speculative nuffies chuck in the towel the Precious Metals are going to keep disappointing -

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 944.9 -18.8 -1.95
Silver 17.99 -0.435 -2.36
Palladium 405.4 -9.6 -2.31
Platinum 1817.9 -33.1 -1.79

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 55.38m units. Within the index, 0 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 0m units; 16 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 55.38m units.

Today the index fell by 6.86 points (3.57%) to 185.29 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) -2.5 (7.1%) to $32.86 on volume of 1.47m shares;
  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) -6.48 (6.1%) to $100.53 on volume of 7.84m shares;
  • GoldCorp (GG) -2.66 (5.8%) to $43.46 on volume of 5.28m shares;
  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) -0.84 (5.5%) to $14.41 on volume of 1.86m shares; and
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) -3.6 (5%) to $67.92 on volume of 1.71m shares.
Energy Complex

A hurricane misses the Gulf of Mexico - not to worry, there will be others. It's a load of old bollocks, that hurricane sotry. Think a bit harder about something else that happens this week. Something special which is always assocaited with rampant manipulation of futures markets.

Come on... today was the Last Trade day for the CL August contract. It's not expiration exactly, but it's important.-

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 128.27 -3.55 -2.69
Heating Oil 3.7017 -0.0767 -2.03
Natural Gas 10.062 -0.448 -4.26
Gasoline RBOB 3.145 -0.0721 -2.24
Ethanol 2.28 -0.093 -3.92

The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 87.14m units. Within the index, 2 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 15.48m units; 13 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 71.66m units.

Today the index fell by 8.26 points (2.47%) to 326.6 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Cameron International (CAM) -4.14 (7.7%) to $49.97 on volume of 4.94m shares;
  • Weatherford International (WFT) -2.71 (6.6%) to $38.37 on volume of 14.08m shares;
  • Oceaneering International (OII) -3.97 (5.5%) to $68.09 on volume of 0.44m shares;
  • Halliburton (HAL) -2.61 (5.3%) to $46.3 on volume of 10.58m shares; and
  • Global Industries (GLBL) -0.68 (4.9%) to $13.1 on volume of 4.33m shares.

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 2.3%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) +0.81 (2.93%) to $28.50 on volume of 38.04m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +1.20 (6.09%) to $20.89 on volume of 137.13m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +1.75 (3.05%) to $59.06 on volume of 13.4m units.
  • IBM (IBM) +1.34 (1.04%) to $130.00 on volume of 5.55m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0 (0%) to $22.09 on volume of 64.88m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.06 (0.27%) to $21.90 on volume of 53.65m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +8.31 (1.77%) to $477.11 on volume of 4.5m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.72 (5.1%) to $13.41 on volume of 45.41m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.95 (10.86%) to $9.70 on volume of 66.11m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 892.02m units. Within the index, 23 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 871.16m units; 1 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 20.86m units.

Today the index rose by 5.59 points (9%) to 67.73 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Wachovia (WB) +3.61 (27.4%) to $16.79 on volume of 197.09m shares;
  • Suntrust Banks (STI) +5.52 (16.2%) to $39.66 on volume of 16.18m shares;
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.93 (13.3%) to $7.9 on volume of 14.57m shares;
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +3.79 (13.3%) to $32.35 on volume of 109.74m shares; and
  • Comerica Inc (CMA) +3.44 (12.5%) to $30.94 on volume of 3.7m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 364.06m units. Within the index, 3 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 44.04m units; 14 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 255.14m units.

Today the index fell by 16.31 points (4.51%) to 345.58 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Sandisk (SNDK) -4.31 (24%) to $13.62 on volume of 48.17m shares;
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) -4.08 (14.3%) to $24.44 on volume of 71m shares;
  • Micron Technology (MU) -0.53 (9.4%) to $5.13 on volume of 18.99m shares;
  • Infineon Tech (IFX) -0.76 (9.2%) to $7.53 on volume of 3.54m shares; and
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) -0.76 (6.7%) to $10.64 on volume of 2.7m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 63.02m units. Within the index, 15 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 57.78m units; 2 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 5.24m units.

Today the index rose by 8.19 points (2.33%) to 359.84 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Gencorp (GY) +0.57 (7.4%) to $8.29 on volume of 0.19m shares;
  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) +1.67 (5.7%) to $30.74 on volume of 1m shares;
  • Teledyne Tech (TDY) +2.54 (4.8%) to $55.54 on volume of 0.19m shares;
  • Rockwell Collins (COL) +1.78 (3.8%) to $48.23 on volume of 1.04m shares; and
  • General Electric (GE) +0.81 (2.9%) to $28.5 on volume of 38.04m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures were slightly stronger after one or other of the geriatric bureaucrats that runs the short end of the yield curve, called for a rise in interest rates. Ain't gonna happen, and we'll be on the lookout for a new short entry in the USD shortly...

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 72.725 0.505 0.7
Euro FX 1.574 -0.0107 -0.68
Swiss Franc 0.9707 -0.0091 -0.93
Australian Dollar 0.9643 -0.0042 -0.43
Canadian Dollar 0.9911 -0.0071 -0.71
Japanese Yen 0.9356 -0.0042 -0.45
New Zealand Dollar 0.7526 -0.0015 -0.2