Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

USRant: Backing and Filling is So 2003...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

No economic news, one company (Cisco) that does somewhat better than expected/ Big Whoop, considering that the performance hurdle for CSCO has been set progressively lower as this quarter has progressed, to the point where Cisco was basically in the Earnings Special Olympics.

Anyhow, somehow today's concatenation of circumstances got shorts somewhat tetchy, because if the two lurches upward in the major indices weren't short-covering, then I have never seen short covering.

Not that it matters - the last USSpy was an unequivocal BUY signal with the S&P hovering just above 1250. Sure, USSPyers had to endure a dip to the high 1230s, but the subsequent trip to 1280 and above was more than adequate compensation. (And I am far too polite to mention the previous USSPy long ,which was sent out within two points of the revent swing low at 1202). 

So all things considered, we don't care a rat's if the US markets go upwards for a day or so; it gives multi-unit USSpyers the chance to pocket yet another massive gain, and prepare themselves to short USD, buy Gold and Oil, and sit back and watch the fireworks... I just hope that USrael doesn't do something too stupid too soon vis à vis Iran, or the move will be easy to miss.

Economic News

Nothing to see here...

Fed Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase - a 1 Day repurchase totalling $4.75bn, with $450m in Treasury-backed collateral, at a weighted average rate of 1.983%. Not big enough, and not enough of a discount to Fed Funds, to help the bulls.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 40.30 points (0.35%) to 11656.07 points, but in order to do that it required a 150-point push, which took place in two stages - both of which looked like shorts that were spooked.

The index high for the day was 11685.46 just before 3 p.m., while the low was 11521.32 at about 10:40 a.m. NY time. Within the index, 16 issues rose, with total upside volume of 284.46m units; 14 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 390.02m units. The total volume traded in the index was 674.47m units. 

The S&P500 Index advanced +4.30 points (0.33%) to 1289.18 points. The total volume traded in the index was 3.6b units. 284 S&P components rose, with aggregate volume of 1.87bn units; 210 issues fell, with total downside volume of 1.7bn units.

The biggest gainers in the index components were -

  • Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) +3.53 (18.6%) to $22.50 on volume of 6.4m shares;
  • Tesoro Petroleum Co. (TSO) +1.86 (12%) to $17.39 on volume of 12.36m shares;
  • Freeport-McMoran Cp & Gld (FCX) +8.67 (11%) to $87.67 on volume of 27.92m shares;
  • American CapitalLtd. (ACAS) +2.01 (9.8%) to $22.54 on volume of 6.41m shares; and
  • Valero Energy (VLO) +2.33 (7.2%) to $34.47 on volume of 15.28m shares.

As far as breadth goes, 3478 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4.3 billion shares. A total of 1843 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 2.37 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 1535 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.98 billion shares. 43 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 82 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced +28.54 points (1.21%) to 2378.37 points and the Nasdaq100 advanced +25.45 points (1.36%) to 1895.21 points. Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 was a feeble 1.03n units. Within the index, 70 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 761.9m units; 30 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 269.51m units.

The biggest percentage gainers in the index:

  • Foster Wheeler (FWLT) +6.03 (11.9%) to $56.61 on volume of 7.75m shares;
  • Garmin (GRMN) +2.82 (8.1%) to $37.83 on volume of 3.57m shares;
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) +6.09 (6.1%) to $105.24 on volume of 1.88m shares;
  • Lam Research (LRCX) +2.03 (6%) to $36.06 on volume of 4.38m shares; and
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +1.28 (5.7%) to $23.93 on volume of 119.28m shares.


Nasdaq volume and breadth were slightly better than the NYSE. 3000 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.2 billion shares. A total of 1691 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.55 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 1193 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 640 million shares. 66 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 104 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 0.96 points (4.54%) to 20.18 points, and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 1.42 points (5.54%) to 24.23 points.


Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11656.07 +40.30 0.35%
S&P500 Index 1289.18 +4.30 0.33%
Nasdaq Composite 2378.37 +28.54 1.21%
Nasdaq100 1895.21 +25.45 1.36%
CBOE Volatility Index 20.18 -0.96 -4.54%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 24.23 -1.42 -5.54%


Dow Gainers

  • Caterpillar (CAT) +2.33 (3.4%) to $70.51 on volume of 6.7m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.81 (3.1%) to $27.02 on volume of 94.2m units
  • Chevron (CVX) +2.07 (2.5%) to $84.56 on volume of 15.5m units
  • Merck (MRK) +0.6 (1.7%) to $35.3 on volume of 13.5m units
  • Alcoa (AA) +0.51 (1.6%) to $32.17 on volume of 9.9m units

Dow Decliners

  • General Motors (GM) -0.44 (4.1%) to $10.25 on volume of 31.6m units
  • AIG (AIG) -0.8 (2.7%) to $29.09 on volume of 29.4m units
  • American Express (AXP) -0.73 (1.9%) to $37.99 on volume of 11.2m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) -0.5 (1.2%) to $41.39 on volume of 29.6m units
  • Citigroup (C) -0.22 (1.1%) to $19.70 on volume of 62.4m units

Most Traded Dow stocks-

  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.81 (3.1%) to $27.02 on volume of 94.2m units
  • Citigroup (C) --0.22 (1.1%) to $19.7 on volume of 62.4m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) --0.13 (0.4%) to $33.45 on volume of 52m units
  • Intel (INTC) --0.22 (1%) to $22.8 on volume of 49m units
  • Pfizer (PFE) +0.04 (0.2%) to $19.43 on volume of 40.9m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures slowed their recent rate of  descent - and Platinum had yet another reasonably strong rise ...

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 883 1.2 0.14
Silver 16.555 -0.017 -0.1
Palladium 354.2 0.3 0.08
Platinum 1614 29.5 1.86

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 106.19m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 92.72m units; 2 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 13.47m units.

Today the index rose by 5.48 points (3.72%) to 152.62 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) +8.67 (11%) to $87.67 on volume of 27.92m shares;
  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.87 (8.3%) to $11.39 on volume of 5.09m shares;
  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) +1.84 (7%) to $28.08 on volume of 1.37m shares;
  • Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +0.15 (6.4%) to $2.51 on volume of 8.92m shares; and
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +1.88 (3.9%) to $50.53 on volume of 3.56m shares.
Energy Complex

The Energy sector looks completely washed out - for the moment it is behaving very similarly to how it did immeidately after touching $100 for the first time (remember that? BubbleVision was full of the one trader who bought at $100 and who got stopped for a loss. If only he had held on!)

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 118.38 -0.79 -0.66
Heating Oil 3.2309 -0.0511 -1.56
Natural Gas 8.79 0.064 0.73
Gasoline RBOB 2.9461 -0.0103 -0.35
Ethanol 2.159 -0.047 -2.13

The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 93.83m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 84.8m units; just 1 issue fell, with aggregate volume of 9.04m units.

Today the index rose by 6.66 points (2.29%) to 296.91 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Global Industries (GLBL) +0.85 (10.2%) to $9.22 on volume of 11.61m shares;
  • Rowan Co (RDC) +1.44 (3.9%) to $38.29 on volume of 3.88m shares;
  • Noble Corp (NE) +1.77 (3.7%) to $49.5 on volume of 5.53m shares;
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) +2.6 (3.6%) to $75.35 on volume of 6.04m shares; and
  • Oceaneering International (OII) +1.99 (3.5%) to $58.74 on volume of 1.08m shares.

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 3.2%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.25 (0.85%) to $29.00 on volume of 36.91m units.
  • Citigroup (C) -0.22 (1.1%) to $19.70 on volume of 62.41m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.42 (0.7%) to $60.76 on volume of 23.09m units.
  • IBM (IBM) +0.79 (0.62%) to $129.16 on volume of 5.12m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.22 (0.96%) to $22.80 on volume of 48.96m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +1.28 (5.65%) to $23.93 on volume of 119.94m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +6.49 (1.35%) to $486.34 on volume of 3.34m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -2 (14.71%) to $11.60 on volume of 58.23m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -1.55 (19.28%) to $6.49 on volume of 104.39m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 459.79m units. Within the index, 13 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 153.38m units; 11 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 306.42m units.

Today the index fell by 0.36 points (0.52%) to 69.52 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Wachovia (WB) -0.65 (3.4%) to $18.41 on volume of 73.39m shares;
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) -0.89 (2.9%) to $30.31 on volume of 41.46m shares;
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) -0.5 (1.2%) to $41.39 on volume of 29.61m shares;
  • Citigroup Inc (C) -0.22 (1.1%) to $19.7 on volume of 62.39m shares; and
  • State Street (STT) -0.67 (0.9%) to $72.81 on volume of 2.69m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 217.29m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 141.94m units; 4 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 75.35m units.

Today the index rose by 3.83 points (1.09%) to 354.16 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Micron Technology (MU) +0.25 (5.3%) to $4.98 on volume of 21.35m shares;
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) +0.46 (4.7%) to $10.25 on volume of 19.58m shares;
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.2 (4.3%) to $4.8 on volume of 13.83m shares;
  • Sandisk (SNDK) +0.45 (3%) to $15.24 on volume of 8.4m shares; and
  • Altera (ALTR) +0.53 (2.3%) to $23.14 on volume of 13.04m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 62.28m units. Within the index, 9 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 18.33m units; 8 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 43.95m units.

Today the index fell by 0.69 points (0.19%) to 369.21 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Teledyne Tech (TDY) -2.18 (3.4%) to $62.08 on volume of 0.44m shares;
  • Gencorp (GY) -0.17 (1.9%) to $8.62 on volume of 0.25m shares;
  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) -0.51 (1.7%) to $30.14 on volume of 0.86m shares;
  • FLIRr Systems (FLIR) -0.34 (0.9%) to $38.4 on volume of 1.02m shares; and
  • General Electric (GE) -0.25 (0.9%) to $29 on volume of 36.88m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures contionued to show a bid for the USD; this week's CoT data from the CFTC will, I truly believe, give a heads up on when the next surge upwards in non-USD currencies will begin -

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 74.47 0.415 0.56
Euro FX 1.5384 -0.0055 -0.36
Swiss Franc 0.9437 -0.0056 -0.59
Australian Dollar 0.9054 -0.0049 -0.54
Canadian Dollar 0.954 -0.0044 -0.46
Japanese Yen 0.9147 -0.0117 -1.26
New Zealand Dollar 0.7138 -0.0076 -1.05