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We got three Rant-predicted outcomes for the price of one today - well, almost.
In the pre-market SPI and in the early part of the cash session, we got the bounce that was mentioned in yesterday's OzRant.
Then, the market reversed with a vengeance - in full compliance with the 'only nuffies buy the opening spike' thesis that I have mentioned countless times in these pages.
And last - and this is why I say 'almost' - the ASX200 dropped into the low 3400s. My target for this bear leg - made explicit when the SPI was above 4150 - was 3400 on the ASX200.
So, is this the end of the bear campaign? Will the decline end on the day that the All Ords marked a 50% decline from its all-time high (6873, set on November 1 2007)?
Do you seriously think that the market would drop, kiss the 50% retracement point (actually it went 6.5 points below the halfway point), and then go up, up and awaaaaaay? Sorry, no sale.
We're going lower from here.
I've banged on about my hero - Richard Feynman - from time to time. Today I watched a 5-part video interview from 1981. If you want to understand what I consider to be the perfect philosophical approach to life and research, then treat yourself to a quiet and entertaining hour, and watch all 5 parts. It's fantastic, and it's also funny that he has such a 'Sopranos' accent. You honestly expect him to say 'Badda bing badda boom'.
In claiming to have a similar worldview to Feynman, I'm not making the claim that I am as clever as Feynman was . What I am saying is that his general outlook and mine are very similar, and that I think that 'our' outlook is one that did not materialise out of thin air or happen by accident - it is something that people 'like us' pursue as a matter of principle, having tested and rejected other approaches.
That's not hugely remarkable, though. His general mien is also strikingly similar to Peter 'Dicko' Dixon and also to the late Ross Parish - two professors who played a fundamental part in my economics training, and whose commitment to rigour (and hatred of bureaucracy) I absorbed through osmosis.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - declined gently, dropping 29.9 points (0.85%), finishing at 3483.2 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3537.4 at 10:10 am, while the low for the day was 3430.2 - set at 12:03 am Sydney time.
Yep, you saw right: after the nuffie spike, the index dropped over 100 points in a little under two hours. And as I said yesterday, the late-day attempt at a bounce is yet another sign that everyone is still trying to pick the bottom.
The day posted the lowest intraday low since May 27th 2004 (and the lowest close since August 16th 2004), and was gone for all money at midday... and yet people stepped up to the plate. Where's the 'selling panic'?
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.44bn units, 23.6% above its 10-day average of 1.16bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1195 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 272 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 389.4m units; there were 655 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 866.9m shares. So the advance-decline ratio is a little under 0.5, as is the A/D volume ratio. And the market rallied 50 points from low to close.
Hardly a capitulation.
Of the 489 All Ordinaries components, 124 rose while 284 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 2:1, with 358.23m shares traded in gainers while 730.38m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 23.6 points (0.67%), closing out the session at 3499.6 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 3483.20 | -29.90 (0.9%) |
| ASX 20 | 2090.80 | -1.70 (0.1%) |
| ASX 50 | 3513.70 | -14.30 (0.4%) |
| ASX 100 | 2876.10 | -18.40 (0.6%) |
| ASX 200 | 3499.60 | -23.60 (0.7%) |
| ASX 300 | 3482.80 | -24.20 (0.7%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3254.10 | -78.80 (2.4%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 1677.20 | -21.40 (1.3%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid modestly, falling 1.7 points (0.08%), closing out the session at 2090.8 points.
The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 177.68m units; 11 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 110.39m shares, while the 10 decliners had volume traded totalling 67.29m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.58 (9.18%) to $6.90 on volume of 5 million shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.78 (5.98%) to $13.82 on volume of 16.4 million shares;
- Macquarie Group (MQG), +$1.16 (4.83%) to $25.16 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.70 (4.5%) to $16.25 on volume of 16 million shares; and
- Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.51 (2.8%) to $18.72 on volume of 3.2 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$1.51 (6.33%) to $22.34 on volume of 5.8 million shares;
- Woolworths (WOW), -$1.15 (4.38%) to $25.10 on volume of 4.6 million shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), -$1 (4.13%) to $23.20 on volume of 20.6 million shares;
- Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.21 (3.7%) to $5.47 on volume of 11.9 million shares; and
- RIO Tinto (RIO), -$2.1 (3.09%) to $65.90 on volume of 2.4 million shares.
- OceanaGold Corporation (OGC), +$0.06 (25%) to $0.30 on volume of 245.5 thousand shares;
- Flexigroup Limited (FXL), +$0.04 (12.07%) to $0.33 on volume of 868.9 thousand shares;
- Tower Australia Group (TAL), +$0.21 (10%) to $2.31 on volume of 251.5 thousand shares;
- AED Oil (AED), +$0.09 (9.09%) to $1.08 on volume of 428.4 thousand shares; and
- ING Real Estate Community Living Group (ILF), +$0.01 (7.69%) to $0.07 on volume of 16 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Admiralty Resources NL (ADY), -$0.01 (35.71%) to $0.01 on volume of 38.6 million shares;
- Aditya Birla Minerals (ABY), -$0.04 (22.86%) to $0.14 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
- Gunns (GNS), -$0.19 (17.62%) to $0.87 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
- Timbercorp (TIM), -$0.06 (16.42%) to $0.28 on volume of 717.4 thousand shares; and
- OM Holdings (OMH), -$0.13 (14.29%) to $0.78 on volume of 1.8 million shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 3483.2 | -29.9 | -0.85 | 1131.8m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 3513.7 | -14.3 | -0.41 | 451.9m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 3499.6 | -23.6 | -0.67 | 957.2m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 3482.8 | -24.2 | -0.69 | 1085.6m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3254.1 | -78.8 | -2.36 | 333.1m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 1677.2 | -21.4 | -1.26 | 300.6m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2090.8 | -1.7 | -0.08 | 167.7m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 2876.1 | -18.4 | -0.64 | 785m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 11 | 36 | 72 | 124 | 60 | 272 |
| Declines | 10 | 61 | 125 | 284 | 128 | 655 |
| Advancing Volume | 110.4m | 284.4m | 327.3m | 358.2m | 81.3m | 389.4m |
| Declining Volume | 67.3m | 500.1m | 619.9m | 730.4m | 206.1m | 866.9m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, it was pretty much even stevens, with a very slight lead to the duds... the 5 that had an "up" day were just shaded by the remaining 6 which didn't.
The best performing index was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which added 84.8 points (2.32%) to 3734.4 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 101.39m units; 12 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 67.76m shares, while the 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 31.03m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Tower Australia Group (TAL), +$0.21 (10%) to $2.31 on volume of 251.5 thousand shares;
- Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.58 (9.18%) to $6.90 on volume of 5 million shares;
- Platinum Asset Management (PTM), +$0.21 (6.77%) to $3.31 on volume of 559.6 thousand shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.78 (5.98%) to $13.82 on volume of 16.4 million shares; and
- Macquarie Group (MQG), +$1.16 (4.83%) to $25.16 on volume of 2.1 million shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Property Trusts (XPJ), which gained 9.8 points (1.01%) to 981.3 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 170.5m units; 13 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 122.25m shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 45.47m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Mirvac Group (MGR), +$0.10 (6.9%) to $1.55 on volume of 21.7 million shares;
- Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.00 (4.92%) to $0.06 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
- Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP), +$0.06 (3.7%) to $1.68 on volume of 329.3 thousand shares;
- Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), +$0.02 (3.61%) to $0.43 on volume of 15.4 million shares; and
- Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), +$0.01 (2.35%) to $0.44 on volume of 396.8 thousand shares.
The bronze medal for today goes to Telecommunications (XTJ), which climbed 6.3 points (0.46%) to 1375.1 points. The 3 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 40.44m units; 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 37.72m shares. The percentage gainers within the index were
- Singapore Telecommunications. (SGT), +$0.02 (0.82%) to $2.47 on volume of 2.7 million shares; and
- Telstra Corporation. (TLS), +$0.02 (0.49%) to $4.10 on volume of 35 million shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 286.8 points (3.82%) to 7225.8 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 254.92m units; The 29 decliners had volume traded totalling 224.5m units, and 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 28.59m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Gunns (GNS), -$0.19 (17.62%) to $0.87 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
- Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), -$0.26 (15.84%) to $1.36 on volume of 11.7 million shares;
- OM Holdings (OMH), -$0.13 (14.29%) to $0.78 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
- OZ Minerals (OZL), -$0.1 (13.7%) to $0.63 on volume of 71.7 million shares; and
- PanAust Ltd (PNA), -$0.03 (12.82%) to $0.17 on volume of 22.2 million shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which slid 32.9 points (2.92%) to 1092.5 points. The 23 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 61.39m units; The 16 decliners had volume traded totalling 54.09m units, and 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 5.26m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Fairfax Media (FXJ), -$0.19 (11.67%) to $1.40 on volume of 13.4 million shares;
- Crown (CWN), -$0.58 (10.03%) to $5.20 on volume of 3.2 million shares;
- David Jones (DJS), -$0.21 (7.34%) to $2.65 on volume of 3.9 million shares;
- Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN), -$0.12 (5.22%) to $2.18 on volume of 4.1 million shares; and
- Flight Centre (FLT), -$0.45 (5.03%) to $8.50 on volume of 1.2 million shares.
Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Information Technology (XIJ), which slid 9.2 points (2.35%) to 382.7 points. The index has only two components - both fell...
- Iress Market Technology (IRE), -$0.26 (5.9%) to $4.15 on volume of 466.3 thousand shares; and
- Computershare (CPU), -$0.13 (1.88%) to $6.80 on volume of 2.2 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 3734.4 | 84.8 | 2.32 | 101m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 981.3 | 9.8 | 1.01 | 170m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1375.1 | 6.3 | 0.46 | 40m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4416.2 | 12.8 | 0.29 | 60m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 8537 | 1.2 | 0.01 | 15m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6096.6 | -130.9 | -2.1 | 45m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11900 | -255.7 | -2.1 | 46m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3165.6 | -71.9 | -2.22 | 168m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 382.7 | -9.2 | -2.35 | 3m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1092.5 | -32.9 | -2.92 | 61m |
| XMJ | Materials | 7225.8 | -286.8 | -3.82 | 255m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OZL | OZ Minerals | 0.63 | -0.10 | -13.7 | 71.7m |
| CSR | CSR | 1.42 | -0.38 | -21.11 | 45.4m |
| ADY | Admiralty Resources NL | 0.01 | -0.01 | -35.71 | 38.6m |
| BBI | Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group | 0.05 | -0.01 | -11.32 | 38.3m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 4.10 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 35m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | CEC Group | 0.20 | 0.10 | 100 | 14.7k |
| OGC | OceanaGold Corporation | 0.30 | 0.06 | 25 | 245.5k |
| CXG | Coote Industrial Ltd | 0.40 | 0.05 | 12.86 | 76.2k |
| FXL | Flexigroup | 0.33 | 0.04 | 12.07 | 868.9k |
| ACK | Austock Group | 0.20 | 0.02 | 11.11 | 20k |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADY | Admiralty Resources NL | 0.01 | -0.01 | -35.71 | 38.6m |
| ABY | Aditya Birla Minerals | 0.14 | -0.04 | -22.86 | 2.1m |
| CSR | CSR | 1.42 | -0.38 | -21.11 | 45.4m |
| BNB | Babcock & Brown | 0.25 | -0.06 | -19.35 | 13.5m |
| BLY | Boart Longyear | 0.20 | -0.05 | -18.37 | 31.8m |
