Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

USRant: Government Buys Some More Stocks...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Another inexplicable 400-point rally (this time in the last hour: the Dow rose 330 points in the final 60 minutes of the session, and Dow futures continued to rise after the bell). 

Still, I don't mind - yesterday's OzRant was reasonably forthright in asserting that a bounce was likely, and as our homies say: Whoop, there it iz....

Now let's be absolutely clear - there is a very good chance that the US will bounce a little tonight. And the Strayan market might well have a bit of a spurt upwards tomorrow. A Sign of Hope.

The 'sudden urge to bargain hunt' took place in a series of 100-point spurts, but I am betting that it was not a profitable exercise for the bureaucrat that was wasting tax money doing it. 

Watching each 5-minute bar unfold was actually quite amusing: the chappie trading the government's money was making no secret of his intentions... so people took advantage of it. 

Every time the Mystery Buyer took his foot off the gas, the Dow would drop 70 points in a minute and a half - to below the bar's starting point. So back to work he would go, slathering taxpayer's money around like it was his own, forcing the print upwards... and sellers would just get out of the way and wait for TIKI (the Dow TICK) to max out.

There was one buyer for today's rally, and only one. Just as there has been one primary buyer for all these 'bargain hunting' bounces that magically appear whenever the market risks a meltdown. 

It was Uncle Sam - the Cancer Fairy. The Pennywise the Clown of financial markets, luring the kiddies into the dark with promises of fun and dancing. 

Sounds fun... I forget how it ends. Something about a load of kiddies' corpses. 

Not satisfied with slaughtering foreign children, the US government has now decided to take the food out of the mouths of future generations - pre-emptive starvation, predictive abortion, genocide-in-advance... call it whatever you like. They're spending money they don't have, on 'assets' that are guaranteed to fall.

This business of having government buy up the financial markets - isn't that effectively what Lenin advocated? 

Economic News

Producer Prices fell 2.8% for the month of October - a much bigger fall than the -2% consensus guess. Core producer prices actually rose 0.2%... so there's no deflation problem for producers who don't use any energy inputs whatsoever (magical producers who make unicorns who shit Mars Bars and piss Mountain Dew).

House prices in California have been absolutely slammed this past year... San Bernadino,  Sacramento and San Diego all had falls of over 35%, and about one third of all houses sold were subject to foreclosure. Foreclosures were up about 26% for the year.

Way to go, 'property developers'. Frickin' geniuses. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair blamed the problem on a lack of government - a 'failure to deal effectively with unaffordable loans and unnecessary foreclosures'.

Really? How about this for a hint as to the root cause of the problem..."A bunch  of people making the biggest investment of their entire lives, using massive leverage, and doing absolutely no due diligence."

{Of course they were encouraged by low interest rates, which are caused by government intervention in the market for credit... i.e., the Fed}.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 151.17 points (1.83%) to 8424.75 points - that result was only possible following a 330-point rally in the last hour. The index high for the day was 8477.95 (set in just before noon), and the low was 8105.44, set just before 3 p.m. NY time.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) contains 30 components; the total volume traded in the index was 1.43bn shares. 20 Dow components rose and 10 fell. Advancing volume was 844.09m units and declining volume hit 589.26m units.

Contributing to the advance were -

  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) +4.25 (14.5%) to $33.59 on volume of 67.65m shares;
  • Disney Corp (DIS) +0.93 (4.7%) to $20.67 on volume of 21.76m shares;
  • Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +2.95 (4%) to $76.33 on volume of 57.25m shares;
  • Chevron (CVX) +2.62 (3.7%) to $73.4 on volume of 23.25m shares; and
  • Home Depot (HD) +0.71 (3.6%) to $20.71 on volume of 32.3m shares.

The S&P500 Index advanced 8.37 points (0.98%) to 859.12 points; the total volume traded in the index was 5bn shares. Within the index, 262 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 2.54bn shares; 219 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 2414.86m units.

Biggest percentage gainers in the S&P were -

  • Federal Home Loan Mtg. (FRE) +0.09 (17%) to $0.62 on volume of 14.04m shares;
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) +4.25 (14.5%) to $33.59 on volume of 67.65m shares;
  • First Horizon National (FHN) +0.96 (10.4%) to $10.18 on volume of 5.96m shares;
  • Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) +0.92 (8.7%) to $11.55 on volume of 50.2m shares; and
  • XL Capital (XL) +0.48 (8.5%) to $6.11 on volume of 5.41m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.22 points (0.08%) to 1483.27 points and the Nasdaq100 advanced 3.79 points (0.33%) to 1155.75 points..

The Nasdaq100 index (NDX) contains 100 components; the total volume traded in the index was 1135.23m units. Within the index, 40 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 710.85m units; 57 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 414.52m units.

Today the index rose by 3.79 points (0.33%) to 1155.75 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Research in Motion (RIMM) +5.01 (11.9%) to $47.25 on volume of 40.98m shares;
  • Yahoo! (YHOO) +0.92 (8.7%) to $11.55 on volume of 50.2m shares;
  • Liberty Media (LINTA) +0.19 (6.5%) to $3.13 on volume of 4.97m shares;
  • NetApp (NTAP) +0.57 (4.7%) to $12.74 on volume of 11.24m shares; and
  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) +0.31 (4.5%) to $7.22 on volume of 4.52m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 1.51 points (2.18%) to 67.64 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 0.29 points (0.42%) to 68.31 points.

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3725 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 2.45bn shares. A total of 1306 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 2.87bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 2325 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 3.8bn shares. 8 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 654 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 3019 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.35bn shares. A total of 1163 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.07bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1749 losers, and total declining volume was 1.25bn shares. 6 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 594 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

{Note - those 'new lows' numbers look whack to me... as usual I have checked that they are the numbers that come from my data feed , but they don't look right.}

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8424.75 +151.17 1.83%
S&P500 Index 859.12 +8.37 0.98%
Nasdaq Composite 1483.27 +1.22 0.08%
Nasdaq100 1155.75 +3.79 0.33%
CBOE Volatility Index 67.64 -1.51 -2.18%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 68.31 -0.29 -0.42%

Dow Darlings

  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) +4.25 (14.5%) to $33.59 on volume of 67.7m units
  • Disney Corp (DIS) +0.93 (4.7%) to $20.67 on volume of 21.8m units
  • Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +2.95 (4%) to $76.33 on volume of 57.2m units
  • Chevron (CVX) +2.62 (3.7%) to $73.4 on volume of 23.3m units
  • Home Depot (HD) +0.71 (3.6%) to $20.71 on volume of 32.3m units

Dow Duds:

  • Citigroup (C) -0.53 (6%) to $8.36 on volume of 210.6m units
  • Boeing (BA) -1.62 (3.9%) to $39.56 on volume of 12.1m units
  • General Motors (GM) -0.09 (2.8%) to $3.09 on volume of 41.9m units
  • Verizon (VZ) -0.74 (2.5%) to $28.5 on volume of 27.2m units
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.19 (2%) to $9.48 on volume of 22.8m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Citigroup (C) --0.53 (6%) to $8.36 on volume of 210.6m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.16 (1.1%) to $15.19 on volume of 147.2m units
  • General Electric (GE) --0.05 (0.3%) to $16.06 on volume of 134.3m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.43 (2.2%) to $19.62 on volume of 106.9m units
  • Intel (INTC) +0.11 (0.8%) to $13.11 on volume of 95.4m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures were mixed -

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 736.5 -5.5 -0.74
Silver 9.58 0.25 2.68
Palladium 215.1 -2.6 -1.19
Platinum 839 18.4 2.24

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 104.92m units. Within the index, 7 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 34.72m units; 9 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 70.19m units.

Today the index fell by 0.58 points (0.76%) to 75.72 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) -1.46 (6.3%) to $21.68 on volume of 25.2m shares;
  • Yamana Gold (AUY) -0.13 (3.2%) to $3.99 on volume of 11.88m shares;
  • AngloGold Ashanti (AU) -0.4 (2.5%) to $15.54 on volume of 1.44m shares;
  • Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -0.01 (2%) to $0.5 on volume of 6.11m shares; and
  • Silver Stand Resources (SSRI) -0.15 (1.8%) to $7.99 on volume of 0.97m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures were soft across the board -

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 54.55 -0.4 -0.73
Heating Oil 1.7667 -0.0243 -1.36
Natural Gas 6.503 -0.03 -0.46
Gasoline RBOB 1.1411 -0.0335 -2.85
Ethanol 1.688 -0.009 -0.53

The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; today all 15 rose, and the total volume traded in the index was 108.73m units.

The index rose by 3.64 points (2.79%) to 134.16 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Cameron International (CAM) +1.31 (6.7%) to $20.92 on volume of 6.89m shares;
  • Smith International (SII) +1.4 (5.3%) to $27.69 on volume of 5.81m shares;
  • Oceaneering International (OII) +1.29 (5.3%) to $25.57 on volume of 0.82m shares;
  • Schlumberger (SLB) +2.28 (4.8%) to $50.23 on volume of 13.13m shares; and
  • Baker Hughes (BHI) +1.19 (3.9%) to $32.05 on volume of 5.76m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures kept a slight USD bid, but it's very equities-centric.

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 87.46 0.32 0.37
Euro FX 1.2563 -0.01 -0.79
Soybeans 902 -4 -0.44
Swiss Franc 0.8307 -0.0046 -0.55
Australian Dollar 0.6422 -0.0109 -1.67
Canadian Dollar 0.8077 -0.0095 -1.16
Japanese Yen 1.0377 0.0053 0.51
New Zealand Dollar 0.5448 -0.0105 -1.89

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 2.4%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.05 (0.31%) to $16.06 on volume of 134.31m units.
  • Citigroup (C) -0.53 (5.96%) to $8.36 on volume of 210.56m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.91 (1.76%) to $52.72 on volume of 36.43m units.
  • IBM (IBM) +2.60 (3.36%) to $80.08 on volume of 12.92m units.
  • Intel (INTC) +0.11 (0.85%) to $13.11 on volume of 95.4m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.24 (1.48%) to $16.45 on volume of 67.67m units.
  • Google (GOOG) -2.7 (0.9%) to $297.42 on volume of 8.26m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.02 (4.44%) to $0.47 on volume of 28.84m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.09 (16.98%) to $0.62 on volume of 14.04m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 787.93m units. Within the index, 7 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 199.18m units; 16 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 588.76m units.

Today the index fell by 0.44 points (0.95%) to 45.68 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • PNC Financial (PNC) -3.74 (6.3%) to $55.45 on volume of 11m shares;
  • Citigroup Inc (C) -0.53 (6%) to $8.36 on volume of 210.45m shares;
  • National City (NCC) -0.1 (4.5%) to $2.1 on volume of 49.68m shares;
  • State Street (STT) -1.16 (3.1%) to $35.76 on volume of 6.46m shares; and
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) -0.63 (2.3%) to $27.2 on volume of 79.99m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 269.16m units. Within the index, 2 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 105.38m units; 15 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 150.91m units.

Today the index fell by 3.83 points (1.96%) to 191.89 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) -0.5 (5%) to $9.5 on volume of 25.91m shares;
  • National Semiconductor (NSM) -0.49 (4.3%) to $10.82 on volume of 4.82m shares;
  • Micron Technology (MU) -0.11 (4.3%) to $2.46 on volume of 21.59m shares;
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) -0.27 (3.7%) to $7.01 on volume of 3.12m shares; and
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) -0.22 (3.3%) to $6.5 on volume of 18.18m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 179.85m units. Within the index, 9 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 23.66m units; 7 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 156.13m units.

Today the index fell by 0.37 points (0.16%) to 236.7 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Gencorp (GY) -0.19 (7.2%) to $2.45 on volume of 0.44m shares;
  • Boeing (BA) -1.62 (3.9%) to $39.56 on volume of 12.05m shares;
  • Esterline Tech (ESL) -1.04 (3.4%) to $29.73 on volume of 0.22m shares;
  • Northrop Grummanl (NOC) -0.57 (1.4%) to $39.11 on volume of 3.37m shares; and
  • Rockwell Collins (COL) -0.21 (0.7%) to $31.31 on volume of 1.33m shares.