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Interesting times - the Sarth Effrikans successfully chased 414 at the WACA, and John McCain co-signed a report accepting that the torture at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib was a function of policy from Rumsfeld, not just a ';few bad apples'. Dick Cheney admitted to supporting torture (and therefore, to perpetrating a war crime punishable by death under US law: Japanese officers who authorised waterboarding were executed at the Tokyo trials after WWII).
So... do we get a rally from Santa, or does the Cancer Fairy bring us a lump of coal (which then gets carbon-taxed to smithereens by the Church of Global Warming Climate Change)?
Inquiring minds want to know.
I'll tell you what I think. I think that the US will try to rally, and that it will fail, and fail badly. The fact that the Yen turned precisely when I thought it would (see last Thursday's USRant) but as yet failed to break meaningfully above 90, is a very very bad sign.
I would have expected USDJPY to be at 92 or even 93 by now. If Euro gets above 1.40 for another two sessions, 1.55 could very easily be hit before New Years' Day.
That would mean that the bond market - along the curve - will have started a sharp decline. (I am not saying that last bit solely as wishful thinking, having advocated new shorts in 30-year bonds since 127).
I thin that the tide is going out on the US now - the Madoff thing is starting to ramify globally: not so much as a direct result of major houses having slapped down money into Madoff's scheme, but rather a new realisation that the US regulatory structure has been captured and is now actually working to the benefit of a new politically-connected class of robber-baron.
What that means, is that you cannot trust the US government any more than you can trust that of Zimbabwe (which recently issued a new Z$10billion note).
The US is done - those of you who like to tug the forelock and kiss the whip of the powerful, you had better start learning Mandarin. (Ni hao ma means "Hi there", I am told).
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - declined quite modestly, dropping 29.4 points (0.83%) to 3492.3 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3550.7 at 10:20 am, while the low for the day was 3488.8 - set at 3:29 pm Sydney time.
Yet again, it paid to fade.
Monday ebullience is hardly new - Dumb Money awakes each Monday with a bright and cheery demeanor, having forgotten everything that has happened the week before. They dive onto the buy side at the open, and then spend the rest of the day finding a new and interesting aperture next to their existing bum-hole.
The Monday Orgasm - the tendency of Mondays to have a burst upwards in the first half-hour of trade followed by a decline back to at least the prior close - is stark evidence against the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. In short, there is money to be made by shirting the open, so smart traders ought to do so. (Here's a hint: that's precisely what they do). If smart traders predominated, then the downward pressure (at the open) would swamp the ebullience of the nuffnuffs, and the phenomenon would disappear.
But the phenomenon persists - which provides prima facie evidence that smart traders do not predominate.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 814.1m units, 39.1% below its 10-day average of 1.34bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 986 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 321 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 290.3m units; there were 455 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 403m shares.
Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 158 rose while 246 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.6:1, with 227.7m shares traded in gainers while 353.92m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 23.8 points (0.66%), closing out the session at 3557.4 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 3492.30 | -29.40 (0.8%) |
| ASX 20 | 2139.20 | -3.70 (0.2%) |
| ASX 50 | 3606.10 | -19.90 (0.5%) |
| ASX 100 | 2939.40 | -15.00 (0.5%) |
| ASX 200 | 3557.40 | -23.80 (0.7%) |
| ASX 300 | 3540.30 | -22.80 (0.6%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3220.00 | -5.20 (0.2%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 1602.40 | -35.30 (2.2%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid modestly, falling 3.7 points (0.17%), closing out the session at 2139.2 points.
Among the 20 big guns, 3 index components finished to the upside, and 18 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 77.55m units; 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 7.7m shares, while the 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 69.85m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- CSL (CSL), +$1.58 (4.98%) to $33.33 on volume of 2 million shares;
- ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.22 (1.5%) to $14.86 on volume of 4.1 million shares; and
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.30 (0.92%) to $32.75 on volume of 1.6 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Newcrest Mining (NCM), -$2.1 (6.27%) to $31.40 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
- Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), -$0.46 (5.71%) to $7.60 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
- Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.77 (4.43%) to $16.62 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
- RIO Tinto (RIO), -$1.61 (4.13%) to $37.40 on volume of 1.2 million shares; and
- Stockland (SGP), -$0.13 (3.38%) to $3.72 on volume of 4.2 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) had significantly worse day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords copped a bit of a hiding, sliding 35.3 points (2.16%), closing out the session at 1602.4 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 76 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 109 closed lower for the session.
The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 219.32m units: volume in the 76 gainers totalling 93.9m shares, with trade totalling 103.31m units in the index's 109 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), +$0.02 (44.23%) to $0.08 on volume of 16.3 million shares;
- Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), +$0.02 (19.05%) to $0.13 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
- Eastern Star Gas (ESG), +$0.09 (18.89%) to $0.54 on volume of 4.2 million shares;
- APN European Retail Property Group (AEZ), +$0.01 (18.87%) to $0.06 on volume of 526.5 thousand shares; and
- Babcock & Brown Communities Group (BBC), +$0.02 (16.67%) to $0.14 on volume of 1.4 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Rubicon America Trust (RAT), -$0 (20%) to $0.01 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
- Coeur D'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), -$0.22 (14.62%) to $1.29 on volume of 290.1 thousand shares;
- United Minerals Corporation NL (UMC), -$0.06 (14.46%) to $0.36 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
- Great Southern (GTP), -$0.03 (13.51%) to $0.16 on volume of 2 million shares; and
- Pacific Brands (PBG), -$0.05 (12.33%) to $0.32 on volume of 4.7 million shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 3492.3 | -29.4 | -0.83 | 642.9m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 3606.1 | -19.9 | -0.55 | 193.4m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 3557.4 | -23.8 | -0.66 | 529.4m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 3540.3 | -22.8 | -0.64 | 586.3m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3220 | -5.2 | -0.16 | 183.1m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 1602.4 | -35.3 | -2.16 | 209.8m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2139.2 | -3.7 | -0.17 | 73.3m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 2939.4 | -15 | -0.51 | 376.5m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 3 | 29 | 69 | 158 | 76 | 321 |
| Declines | 18 | 67 | 124 | 246 | 109 | 455 |
| Advancing Volume | 7.7m | 122.4m | 195.8m | 227.7m | 93.9m | 290.3m |
| Declining Volume | 69.9m | 239m | 315.3m | 353.9m | 103.3m | 403m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, the outcome favoured the upside, but only just - the 6 advancing sectors just triumphed over the 5 losing sectors.
The best performing index was Healthcare (XHJ), which added 389.9 points (4.92%) to 8309.9 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 5.48m units; 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.34m shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 2.14m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- CSL (CSL), +$1.58 (4.98%) to $33.33 on volume of 2 million shares;
- Primary Health Care (PRY), +$0.08 (1.76%) to $4.63 on volume of 270.8 thousand shares;
- Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.05 (0.38%) to $13.30 on volume of 789.6 thousand shares;
- ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.01 (0.19%) to $5.23 on volume of 224.5 thousand shares; and
- Cochlear (COH), +$0.08 (0.15%) to $53.48 on volume of 78.5 thousand shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Information Technology (XIJ), which gained 15.1 points (3.81%) to 411.1 points. This index only contains 2 stocks; they traded a total of 900k units today. The lone rising index component had volume amounting to just 42,800 shares, while the sole declining stock traded 860k units. The percentage gainer within the index was
- Iress Market Technology (IRE), +$0.02 (0.43%) to $4.62 on volume of 42.8 thousand shares.
The bronze medal for today goes to Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which climbed 66.2 points (1.78%) to 3789.5 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 42.59m units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.68m shares, while the 17 decliners had volume traded totalling 26.94m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.03 (13.64%) to $0.25 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
- Sunland Group (SDG), +$0.06 (10.34%) to $0.64 on volume of 984.1 thousand shares;
- FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.04 (10%) to $0.44 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
- Henderson Group PLC (HGG), +$0.05 (4.1%) to $1.27 on volume of 377.1 thousand shares; and
- Tower Australia Group (TAL), +$0.05 (2.22%) to $2.30 on volume of 268.6 thousand shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Energy (XEJ), which dipped 697.3 points (5.73%) to 11472 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 27.32m units; The 15 decliners had volume traded totalling 22.97m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 4.35m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Arrow Energy (AOE), -$0.24 (10.96%) to $1.95 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
- Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), -$0.17 (8.68%) to $1.74 on volume of 624.4 thousand shares;
- Worleyparsons (WOR), -$1.14 (8.19%) to $12.78 on volume of 876.5 thousand shares;
- Aquila Resources (AQA), -$0.27 (8.13%) to $3.05 on volume of 58.6 thousand shares; and
- Felix Resources (FLX), -$0.58 (7.4%) to $7.26 on volume of 262.9 thousand shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Materials (XMJ), which slid 361.7 points (4.16%) to 8328.1 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 146.04m units; The 30 decliners had volume traded totalling 92.23m units, and 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 50.04m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), -$0.45 (20.6%) to $1.72 on volume of 25.6 million shares;
- Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), -$0.22 (14.62%) to $1.29 on volume of 290.1 thousand shares;
- Great Southern (GTP), -$0.03 (13.51%) to $0.16 on volume of 2 million shares;
- Alumina (AWC), -$0.17 (12.31%) to $1.18 on volume of 7.8 million shares; and
- Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.03 (9.38%) to $0.29 on volume of 3 million shares.
Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 8.7 points (0.97%) to 886 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 139.6m units; The 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 68.23m units, and 12 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 67.56m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.07 (18.57%) to $0.29 on volume of 18.7 million shares;
- Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.01 (8.75%) to $0.07 on volume of 4.1 million shares;
- Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0 (5.26%) to $0.04 on volume of 18.4 million shares;
- Stockland (SGP), -$0.13 (3.38%) to $3.72 on volume of 4.2 million shares; and
- Dexus Property Group (DXS), -$0.02 (2.41%) to $0.81 on volume of 12.1 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHJ | Healthcare | 8309.9 | 389.9 | 4.92 | 5m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 411.1 | 15.1 | 3.81 | 1m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 3789.5 | 66.2 | 1.78 | 43m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4227.8 | 61 | 1.46 | 38m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5918.1 | 79.7 | 1.37 | 26m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1132.1 | 9.4 | 0.84 | 26m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3157.9 | -26.3 | -0.83 | 60m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1242 | -11.8 | -0.94 | 23m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 886 | -8.7 | -0.97 | 140m |
| XMJ | Materials | 8328.1 | -361.7 | -4.16 | 146m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11472 | -697.3 | -5.73 | 27m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGX | Mount Gibson Iron | 0.48 | 0.07 | 17.28 | 28.2m |
| FMG | Fortescue Metals Group Ltd | 1.72 | -0.45 | -20.6 | 25.6m |
| EBB | Everest Babcock & Brown | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0 | 21.1m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 3.67 | -0.05 | -1.34 | 19m |
| MOF | Macquarie Office Trust | 0.29 | -0.07 | -18.57 | 18.7m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBP | Babcock & Brown Power | 0.08 | 0.02 | 44.23 | 16.3m |
| SHV | Select Harvests | 2.99 | 0.59 | 24.58 | 35.3k |
| TSO | Tishman Speyer Office Fund | 0.13 | 0.02 | 19.05 | 1.3m |
| ESG | Eastern Star Gas | 0.54 | 0.09 | 18.89 | 4.2m |
| AEZ | APN European Retail Property Group | 0.06 | 0.01 | 18.87 | 526.5k |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMV | CMA Corporation | 0.09 | -0.03 | -25 | 178k |
| AVX | Avexa | 0.08 | -0.03 | -24.76 | 3.5m |
| BTR | Blackthorn Resources | 0.06 | -0.02 | -21.43 | 1.3m |
| CFU | Ceramic Fuel Cells | 0.11 | -0.03 | -21.43 | 2m |
| FMG | Fortescue Metals Group Ltd | 1.72 | -0.45 | -20.6 | 25.6m |
