Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, December 22, 2008

USRant: The Fakery Continues...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Another day, another 100+ point spike in the Dow in the last half-hour: today it was 130 points in the last 25 minutes. As if the US doesn't have enough 'trust issues' for global investors, now we have to take into account that the US stock market is going to behave like a penny stock with shonky management.

Quite apart from being incredibly tedious, these flagrant manipulations will eventually enter history alongside the Japanese government's attempts to do the same impossible task - to try and hide the perfectly natural after-effects of a mania (or in the case of the US, a series of manias). Politicians only like free markets if the outcomes are those for which the politician would like to receive the kudos. If those same markets then do stuff that politicians don't like, they will start behaving like Stalin, lickety split.

But for today, the data shows a closing loss of just under 60 points on the Dow - rather than just under 200, as would have been the case without government intervention. That fact alone will enable BubbleVision to keep the Santa Rally dream alive - and BubbleVision's job is to keep nuffnuffs from trying to leave the ship until after all the smart money is in the lifeboats.

Economic News

Nothing - although tomorrow is pretty data-rich.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 59.42 points (0.69%) to 8519.69 points. The index high for the day was 8601.41 - set 10 miutes after the open - and the low was 8372.26, set 25 minutes before the close.

Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 812.39m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 1.7 to one, with 19 decliners to 11 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 599.83m to 212.55m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • General Motors (GM) -0.97 (21.6%) to $3.52 on volume of 30.86m shares;
  • American Express (AXP) -1.01 (5.2%) to $18.42 on volume of 10.74m shares;
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.47 (4.8%) to $9.23 on volume of 22.7m shares;
  • Citigroup (C) -0.27 (3.8%) to $6.75 on volume of 135.16m shares; and
  • General Electric (GE) -0.43 (2.6%) to $16.07 on volume of 72.11m shares.

The S&P500 index (SPX) fell -16.25 points (1.83%) to 871.63 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 3.31bn shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 4.9 to one, with 401 decliners to 82 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 2.76bn to 478.77m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • General Growth Properties (GGP) -0.40 (22.9%) to $1.35 on volume of 6.17m shares;
  • General Motors (GM) -0.97 (21.6%) to $3.52 on volume of 30.86m shares;
  • LSI Corporation (LSI) -0.69 (17.8%) to $3.19 on volume of 11.95m shares;
  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) -0.96 (15.4%) to $5.26 on volume of 1.72m shares; and
  • Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) -0.29 (14.9%) to $1.65 on volume of 61.82m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 31.97 points (2.04%) to 1532.35 points and the Nasdaq100 lost 28.04 points (2.3%) to 1189.15 points..

 Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 722.46m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 7.8 to one, with 86 decliners to 11 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 554.61m to 162.96m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Focus Media Holding (FMCN) -1.78 (16.2%) to $9.2 on volume of 24.59m shares;
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) -1.36 (11.6%) to $10.36 on volume of 7.81m shares;
  • Joy Global (JOYG) -1.76 (7.4%) to $22 on volume of 2.5m shares;
  • VeriSign (VRSN) -1.48 (7.1%) to $19.48 on volume of 4.03m shares; and
  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) -1.08 (6.9%) to $14.5 on volume of 3.68m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index dropped 0.37 points (0.82%) to 44.56 points and the the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index dropped 1.59 points (3.66%) to 41.91 points..

Breadth and Internals

NYSE volume statistics have bee nunreliable for months - so until this is rectified I am only going to mention advance-decline numbers, and not volumes. Nasdaq volumes are reliable.

A total of 3940 issues traded today on the NYSE; 1176 stocks posted gains while there were 2676 losers. 13 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 108 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 3029 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.63bn shares. A total of 981 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 350m shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1908 losers, and total declining volume was 1.24bn shares. 5 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 127 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8519.69 -59.42 -0.69%
S&P500 Index 871.63 -16.25 -1.83%
Nasdaq Composite 1532.35 -31.97 -2.04%
Nasdaq100 1189.15 -28.04 -2.3%
CBOE Volatility Index 44.56 -0.37 -0.82%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 41.91 -1.59 -3.66%

Dow Darlings

  • Merck (MRK) +0.53 (1.9%) to $29.09 on volume of 17m units
  • McDonalds (MCD) +1.08 (1.8%) to $61.4 on volume of 9m units
  • United Technologies (UTX) +0.37 (0.7%) to $51.74 on volume of 7.9m units
  • Verizon (VZ) +0.23 (0.7%) to $33.42 on volume of 15.3m units
  • Coca-Cola (KO) +0.23 (0.5%) to $44.66 on volume of 11.2m units

Dow Duds:

  • General Motors (GM) -0.97 (21.6%) to $3.52 on volume of 30.9m units
  • American Express (AXP) -1.01 (5.2%) to $18.42 on volume of 10.7m units
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.47 (4.8%) to $9.23 on volume of 22.7m units
  • Citigroup (C) -0.27 (3.8%) to $6.75 on volume of 135.2m units
  • General Electric (GE) -0.43 (2.6%) to $16.07 on volume of 72.1m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Citigroup (C) --0.27 (3.8%) to $6.75 on volume of 135.2m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) --0.27 (2%) to $13.53 on volume of 72.6m units
  • General Electric (GE) --0.43 (2.6%) to $16.07 on volume of 72.1m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.06 (0.3%) to $19.18 on volume of 58.2m units
  • Pfizer (PFE) --0.12 (0.7%) to $17.18 on volume of 47.3m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures advanced, with the exception of Palladium -

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 848.9 11.5 1.37
Silver 10.855 0.005 0.05
Palladium 174 -3.95 -2.22
Platinum 856.5 5.2 0.61

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) slid -2.92 points (2.59%) to 109.83 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 107.55m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 4.3 to one, with 13 decliners to 3 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 88.29m to 19.26m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) -2.01 (8.6%) to $21.32 on volume of 16.27m shares;
  • RandGold Resources (GOLD) -1.86 (4.3%) to $41.36 on volume of 0.79m shares;
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) -1.93 (4.1%) to $44.69 on volume of 4.78m shares;
  • Newmnt Mining (NEM) -1.35 (3.5%) to $36.76 on volume of 5.39m shares; and
  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) -0.51 (3.3%) to $14.83 on volume of 1.52m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures were weak - as I have said before, the Energy market andthe bond market are pricing in a Depression, while the stock market thinks everything is just dandy. Which market is rational?

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 39.83 -2.53 -5.97
Heating Oil 1.365 -0.0514 -3.63
Natural Gas 5.368 0.034 0.64
Gasoline RBOB 0.8845 -0.0848 -8.75
Ethanol 1.559 -0.011 -0.7

The Oil Services index (OSX) fell -4.53 points (3.88%) to 112.15 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 98.03m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 6.5 to one, with 13 decliners to 2 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 95.34m to 2.68m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Cameron International (CAM) -1.43 (7.2%) to $18.47 on volume of 4.01m shares;
  • Weatherford International (WFT) -0.68 (6.8%) to $9.28 on volume of 13.12m shares;
  • Smith International (SII) -1.49 (6.4%) to $21.93 on volume of 2.82m shares;
  • BJ Services (BJS) -0.69 (6.1%) to $10.57 on volume of 4.74m shares; and
  • Rowan Co (RDC) -0.95 (6.1%) to $14.66 on volume of 4.05m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures are interesting - as I said yesterday, I would have expected the Yen to have declined more already. If the Yen strength regroups before 93 is breached, then the prospects for the USd between now and February are really realyl dire.

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 82.2 -0.235 -0.29
Euro FX 1.3926 0.0073 0.53
Swiss Franc 0.9183 0.0132 1.46
Australian Dollar 0.6791 0.002 0.3
Canadian Dollar 0.8202 0.0027 0.33
Japanese Yen 1.1125 -0.0073 -0.65
New Zealand Dollar 0.5689 0.0002 0.04

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 2.6%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.43 (2.61%) to $16.07 on volume of 72.14m units.
  • Citigroup (C) -0.27 (3.85%) to $6.75 on volume of 135.2m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.25 (0.45%) to $55.99 on volume of 17.01m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -1.53 (1.83%) to $81.99 on volume of 7.06m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.1 (0.69%) to $14.34 on volume of 41.49m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.27 (1.62%) to $16.37 on volume of 38.49m units.
  • Google (GOOG) -13.06 (4.21%) to $297.11 on volume of 3.9m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.03 (4.76%) to $0.60 on volume of 13.53m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.03 (4.69%) to $0.61 on volume of 9.65m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) declined -1.41 points (3.25%) to 41.91 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 427m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 10 to one, with 20 decliners to 2 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 402.47m to 13.48m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Zions Bancorp (ZION) -2.38 (9.5%) to $22.56 on volume of 3.6m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) -0.6 (7.4%) to $7.47 on volume of 6.78m shares;
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) -1.94 (6.6%) to $27.42 on volume of 41.12m shares;
  • State Street (STT) -2.52 (6.2%) to $37.83 on volume of 3.05m shares; and
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) -0.43 (5.9%) to $6.88 on volume of 3.9m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) lost -5.18 points (2.45%) to 206.66 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 178.99m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 8 to one, with 16 decliners to 2 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 164.01m to 14.98m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Micron Technology (MU) -0.38 (12.7%) to $2.61 on volume of 31.61m shares;
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -0.25 (11%) to $2.02 on volume of 16.28m shares;
  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) -0.55 (4.3%) to $12.22 on volume of 1.4m shares;
  • Teradyne (TER) -0.15 (3.5%) to $4.14 on volume of 4.09m shares; and
  • KLA-Tencor Cp (KLAC) -0.74 (3.4%) to $20.75 on volume of 2.88m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) declined -2.44 points (0.96%) to 252.27 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 101.89m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 3 to one, with 12 decliners to 4 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 89.2m to 12.69m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • General Electric (GE) -0.43 (2.6%) to $16.07 on volume of 72.11m shares;
  • Teledyne Tech (TDY) -0.94 (2.3%) to $40.59 on volume of 0.19m shares;
  • Rockwell Collins (COL) -0.73 (1.9%) to $36.96 on volume of 0.83m shares;
  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) -0.27 (1.7%) to $15.8 on volume of 0.4m shares; and
  • Esterline Tech (ESL) -0.56 (1.5%) to $35.6 on volume of 0.25m shares.