Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Friday, December 26, 2008

USRant: Bah, Humbug...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

So where was this 'Santy Claus' Rally? Between the end of November and Dec 24th, the Dow lost a little over 4%. Between the 15th of December and the 24th it lost 5%, and between the 19th and the 24th it lost 1.3%. Apart from the actual day (or half day, in fact) of the 24th, the whole of December has been a story of the US government (or its politically appointed interferers, the Fed and the Treasury), trying to prevent the beauty of payback from being wreaked on US financial markets.

Payback and Blowback - the two words that define the end of the US empire. Payback of consumption brought forward through rampant credit; blowback as the US is humiliated by failed campaigns in third-world nations who have been betrayed, humiliated and reduced to rubble in the name of US exceptionalism.

There is a certain type of person who overstates the idea of 'sunk costs' - they think that you can do whatever you like to the world or to the economy, and anything that happens back towards you is somehow unrelated and is 'as if from whole cloth'.

What Went Before doesn't seem to matter to Yanks (as it didn't matter to the political parasites in the English, Portugese, Spanish or Roman Empires).

Crassus and Varus thought that Rome was exceptional, too - they thought that everyone who was brought under Rome's thrall would be uplifted: civilised, if you will. At Carrhae and Teutoberger Wald (respectively), both discovered that sometimes the locals aren't interested in a wholesale change in their way of life - particularly if that involves massive mulcting of the new vassals by the conqueror.

Rome actually had a very bad experience when it came to counter-insurgency warfare: even unorthodox tactics (like Hannibal at Lake Trasimene) usually revealed the massive weaknesses in phalanx-formation fighting favoured by the legions. Spartacus gave various Roman commanders their lumps as well.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) rose 48.99 points (0.58%) to 8468.48 points. The index high for the day was 8498.50, while the low was 8416.86.

Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 260.5m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 2.8 to one, with 22 advancers to 8 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 190.16m to 70.34m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • General Motors (GM) +0.25 (8.3%) to $3.25 on volume of 12.32m shares;
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.78 (6.1%) to $13.53 on volume of 38.1m shares;
  • Citigroup (C) +0.26 (4%) to $6.78 on volume of 40.07m shares;
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +0.74 (2.5%) to $29.85 on volume of 12.35m shares; and
  • Caterpillar (CAT) +0.78 (1.9%) to $41.91 on volume of 2.12m shares.

The S&P500 index (SPX) gained 2.26 points (0.26%) to 865.42 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 1.08bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 2.4 to one, with 334 advancers to 141 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 660.86m to 341.76m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • ProLogis (PLD) +3.18 (31.5%) to $13.28 on volume of 25.07m shares;
  • Micron Technology (MU) +0.23 (9.7%) to $2.59 on volume of 19.55m shares;
  • General Motors (GM) +0.25 (8.3%) to $3.25 on volume of 12.32m shares;
  • Merrill Lynch (MER) +0.71 (6.5%) to $11.59 on volume of 10.41m shares; and
  • Bank of America Corp. (BAC) +0.78 (6.1%) to $13.53 on volume of 38.1m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite gained +3.36 points (0.22%) to 1524.90 points..

The Nasdaq100 advanced +1.11 points (0.09%) to 1184.30 points and the Nasdaq100 index (NDX) rose 1.11 points (0.09%) to 1184.3 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the index was 189.01m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.9 to one, with 63 advancers to 34 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 94.8m to 89.38m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Virgin Media (VMED) +0.18 (4.2%) to $4.49 on volume of 0.74m shares;
  • SanDisk (SNDK) +0.32 (3.6%) to $9.11 on volume of 1.91m shares;
  • Sears Holdings (SHLD) +1.16 (3.3%) to $36.72 on volume of 0.47m shares;
  • Logitech International (LOGI) +0.45 (3.2%) to $14.41 on volume of 0.18m shares; and
  • DISH Network (DISH) +0.28 (2.7%) to $10.69 on volume of 0.96m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index slid 0.81 points (1.8%) to 44.21 points while the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index gained +0.12 points (0.28%) to 43.41 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3776 issues traded today on the NYSE; a total of 2150 stocks posted gains for the day, and there were 1489 losers. 14 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 97 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2893 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 0.52bn shares. A total of 1441 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 0.28bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1284 losers, and total declining volume was 0.22bn shares. 5 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 84 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8468.48 +48.99 0.58%
S&P500 Index 865.42 +2.26 0.26%
Nasdaq Composite 1524.90 +3.36 0.22%
Nasdaq100 1184.30 +1.11 0.09%
CBOE Volatility Index 44.21 -0.81 -1.8%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 43.41 +0.12 0.28%

Dow Darlings

  • General Motors (GM) +0.25 (8.3%) to $3.25 on volume of 12.3m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.78 (6.1%) to $13.53 on volume of 38.1m units
  • Citigroup (C) +0.26 (4%) to $6.78 on volume of 40.1m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +0.74 (2.5%) to $29.85 on volume of 12.4m units
  • Caterpillar (CAT) +0.78 (1.9%) to $41.91 on volume of 2.1m units

Dow Duds:

  • Alcoa (AA) -0.18 (1.9%) to $9.39 on volume of 4.6m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) -0.11 (0.6%) to $19.17 on volume of 16.9m units
  • Merck (MRK) -0.14 (0.5%) to $29.27 on volume of 3.4m units
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -0.12 (0.2%) to $58.56 on volume of 3.6m units
  • Pfizer (PFE) -0.02 (0.1%) to $17.01 on volume of 14.3m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Citigroup (C) +0.26 (4%) to $6.78 on volume of 40.1m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.78 (6.1%) to $13.53 on volume of 38.1m units
  • General Electric (GE) --0.01 (0.1%) to $16.11 on volume of 23.4m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) --0.11 (0.6%) to $19.17 on volume of 16.9m units
  • Pfizer (PFE) --0.02 (0.1%) to $17.01 on volume of 14.3m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures were firmer across the board -

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 848 9.9 1.18
Silver 10.35 0.09 0.88
Palladium 174.9 0.2 0.11
Platinum 859.4 12.9 1.52

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) was unchanged at 113.03 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 31.77m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 1.3 to one, with 9 decliners to 7 advancers; however advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 18.37m shares to 13.4m. The index's rather boring situation arose as a result of a mixed bag of results, the most notable amongst these (in percentage terms) being -

  • AngloGold Ashanti (AU) -1.19 (4.5%) to $25.02 on volume of 0.91m shares;
  • Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) -0.25 (2.8%) to $8.64 on volume of 1.65m shares;
  • Kinroos Gold (KGC) +0.31 (1.9%) to $17 on volume of 2.11m shares;
  • RandGold Resources (GOLD) -0.72 (1.7%) to $42.02 on volume of 0.27m shares; and
  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) +0.22 (1.5%) to $14.95 on volume of 0.28m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures were weak as a lamb -

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 35.35 -3.63 -9.31
Heating Oil 1.2211 -0.1241 -9.23
Natural Gas 5.91 0.173 3.02
Gasoline RBOB 0.7927 -0.0633 -7.39
Ethanol 1.613 0.019 1.19

The Oil Services index (OSX) was unchanged at 110.84 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 29.56m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.5 to one, with 9 advancers to 6 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 19.44m to 10.12m shares. The index's rather boring situation arose as a result of a mixed bag of results, the most notable amongst these (in percentage terms) being -

  • Global Industries (GLBL) +0.25 (8.3%) to $3.25 on volume of 0.6m shares;
  • Transocean Inc (RIG) -1.31 (3%) to $42.24 on volume of 4.05m shares;
  • Oceaneering International (OII) -0.8 (2.9%) to $26.61 on volume of 0.41m shares;
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) +0.63 (2.9%) to $22.71 on volume of 2.05m shares; and
  • Cameron International (CAM) +0.48 (2.6%) to $19.05 on volume of 1.01m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures were mixed -

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 81.975 -0.21 -0.26
Euro FX 1.3944 0.0002 0.01
Swiss Franc 0.9289 0.0073 0.79
Soybeans 915 14 1.55
Australian Dollar 0.6777 0.0009 0.13
Canadian Dollar 0.8269 0.0028 0.34
Japanese Yen 1.1042 -0.0006 -0.05
New Zealand Dollar 0.5685 0.0069 1.23

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 0.7%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.01 (0.06%) to $16.11 on volume of 23.41m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +0.26 (3.99%) to $6.78 on volume of 40.07m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.15 (0.27%) to $55.44 on volume of 4.57m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -0.08 (0.1%) to $80.52 on volume of 2.42m units.
  • Intel (INTC) +0.16 (1.14%) to $14.23 on volume of 11.42m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.11 (0.68%) to $16.35 on volume of 11.6m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +4.93 (1.65%) to $302.95 on volume of 1.92m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -0 (0%) to $0.59 on volume of 6.39m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.01 (1.69%) to $0.58 on volume of 5.08m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) gained 1.02 points (2.48%) to 42.09 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 155.54m shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: 23 of the 24 index components rose, with total upside volume of 155.54mshares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.78 (6.1%) to $13.53 on volume of 38.1m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) +0.4 (5.3%) to $7.92 on volume of 1.64m shares;
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.29 (4.2%) to $7.23 on volume of 1.38m shares;
  • Citigroup Inc (C) +0.26 (4%) to $6.78 on volume of 40.07m shares; and
  • Wachovia (WB) +0.2 (3.8%) to $5.5 on volume of 14.13m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) was unchanged at 202.89 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 58.26m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 3.5 to one, with 14 advancers to 4 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 50.72m to 7.55m shares. The index's rather boring situation arose as a result of a mixed bag of results, the most notable amongst these (in percentage terms) being -

  • Micron Technology (MU) +0.23 (9.7%) to $2.59 on volume of 19.55m shares;
  • Sandisk (SNDK) +0.32 (3.6%) to $9.11 on volume of 1.91m shares;
  • Teradyne (TER) +0.12 (3%) to $4.18 on volume of 0.95m shares;
  • KLA-Tencor Cp (KLAC) +0.45 (2.2%) to $20.58 on volume of 0.86m shares; and
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.03 (1.5%) to $1.99 on volume of 2.91m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) was unchanged at 251.08 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 31.72m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.7 to one, with 10 advancers to 6 decliners; however declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 26.2m to 5.52m shares. The index's rather boring situation arose as a result of a mixed bag of results, the most notable amongst these (in percentage terms) being -

  • FLIRr Systems (FLIR) +1.5 (5.6%) to $28.27 on volume of 1.26m shares;
  • Gencorp (GY) +0.13 (4%) to $3.42 on volume of 0.1m shares;
  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) -0.43 (2.8%) to $15.06 on volume of 0.27m shares;
  • ITT Corporation (ITT) +0.67 (1.5%) to $44.24 on volume of 0.36m shares; and
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) +0.94 (1.2%) to $79.22 on volume of 0.47m shares.