Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

OzRant: Ahem... TOOT TOOT...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The three trades that were dished out (for free, mind you) since last week have all been belters (SPI long, EURGBP short and Crude long)...and although I exited the SPI well under 3450, 3450 was there for those who waited (as was 3460 and 3470... the SPI top today was 3480). 

In the SPI I had a couple of other dips on the long side - each worth a coupla-hunjie - so I think all things considered I wound up with an 'as if' exit in the 3450 range..

Likewise in Crude - the aim was to grab a coupla-hunjie per contract, and that we did. Crude didn't look strong enough to get anywhere near $42.48 (the stated exit I wanted) so I grabbed at $42.29 and said "Ahhh yibbida yibbida... thank your mother for the rabbits". I will have another crack at Crude during the Yank session.

All the major banks recovered almost all the ground they lost last Friday, but the going was awfully slow. Compared to the US session, the Strayan session is a very tentative affair - as if the bulls are still shell-shocked and aren't taking anything at face value.

I think this is fun - another day or two and everyone will be singing 'Happy days are here again", Bubblevision will crank up the propaganda... and then the market will gut them like fish.  Having surveyed the landscape, I now think - without being too alarmist - that we are going to see sub-1000 on the Dow before this grizzly has drunk its fill of nuffie-blood.

The last 7000 points of Dow decline is not going to happen all at once, and it's not going to happen in a straight line. There will be loads of opportunities like the one I just showed you (i.e., Friday afternoon to today - and maybe a couple more days, but let's leave that to the suckers). 

Its up to you whether you want to come along for the ride: to put that ride in perspective, the SPI trade (from 3300 to 3450) was worth $3750 per contract, in three sessions. A subscription to the SPISpy signals is about $200 (I forget exactly- it's bugger all though, and each SPI trade makes more than the sub).

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose strongly, registering a gain of 42.8 points (1.26%), finishing at 3435.1 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3444.6 at 2:18 pm, while the low for the day was 3383.3 - set at 10:10 am Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 977.1m units, 2% above its 10-day average of 958m shares.

The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1016 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 369 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 461.5m units; there were 399 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 386.8m shares.

Of the 486 All Ordinaries components, 200 rose while 182 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.5:1, with 411.56m shares traded in gainers while 279.25m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - managed a solid gain, adding 51.5 points (1.50%), closing out the session at 3495.5 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3435.10 42.80 (1.3%)
ASX 20 2098.90 43.00 (2.1%)
ASX 50 3539.30 62.30 (1.8%)
ASX 100 2880.70 43.30 (1.5%)
ASX 200 3495.50 51.50 (1.5%)
ASX 300 3480.20 50.00 (1.5%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3119.10 -14.70 (0.5%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1636.20 10.20 (0.6%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 43 points (2.09%), closing out the session at 2098.9 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 13 index components finished to the upside, and 8 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 156.78m units; 13 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 118.18m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 38.6m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.81 (6.53%) to $13.21 on volume of 9.5 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$1.57 (6.35%) to $26.31 on volume of 6.1 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.77 (5.2%) to $15.59 on volume of 8.7 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.36 (4.77%) to $7.90 on volume of 3 million shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.71 (4.1%) to $18.02 on volume of 6.9 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), -$1.25 (3.77%) to $31.90 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$1.24 (2.94%) to $40.95 on volume of 6.6 million shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.38 (2.69%) to $13.73 on volume of 3 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.09 (2.51%) to $3.50 on volume of 5.6 million shares; and
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.38 (2.32%) to $16.02 on volume of 7 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) advanced by under a percent, adding 10.2 points (0.63%), closing out the session at 1636.2 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 96 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 82 closed lower for the session.

The 209 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 235.24m units: volume in the 96 gainers totalling 78.84m shares, with trade totalling 92.88m units in the index's 82 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Albidon (ALB), +$0.01 (20.34%) to $0.07 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Babcock And Brown Capital (BCM), +$0.17 (14.53%) to $1.34 on volume of 154.7 thousand shares;
  • Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), +$0.16 (13.91%) to $1.31 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Centennial Coal Company (CEY), +$0.31 (13.25%) to $2.65 on volume of 2.7 million shares; and
  • Rubicon Japan Trust (RJT), +$0.00 (11.11%) to $0.01 on volume of 687.7 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.04 (14.81%) to $0.23 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
  • Aditya Birla Minerals (ABY), -$0.02 (12.5%) to $0.14 on volume of 901 thousand shares;
  • Apex Minerals NL (AXM), -$0.05 (11.84%) to $0.34 on volume of 4.1 million shares;
  • Challenger Infrastructure Fund (CIF), -$0.19 (9.25%) to $1.82 on volume of 303 thousand shares; and
  • Service Stream (SSM), -$0.05 (9.18%) to $0.45 on volume of 207.5 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3435.1 42.8 1.26 787.3m
XFL ASX 50 3539.3 62.3 1.79 335.6m
XJO ASX 200 3495.5 51.5 1.5 702.8m
XKO ASX 300 3480.2 50 1.46 753.7m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3119.1 -14.7 -0.47 195m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1636.2 10.2 0.63 223m
XTL ASX 20 2098.9 43 2.09 151.1m
XTO ASX 100 2880.7 43.3 1.53 530.7m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 13 52 111 200 96 369
Declines 8 43 79 182 82 399
Advancing Volume 118.2m 325.9m 386.2m 411.6m 78.8m 461.5m
Declining Volume 38.6m 191m 241.1m 279.3m 92.9m 386.8m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, things were relatively upbeat: every sector bar one managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which added 141 points (4.13%) to 3552.9 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 61.82m units; 21 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 57.02m shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 2.88m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Babcock And Brown Capital (BCM), +$0.17 (14.53%) to $1.34 on volume of 154.7 thousand shares;
  • FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.04 (8.75%) to $0.44 on volume of 456.5 thousand shares;
  • HFA Holdings (HFA), +$0.01 (8%) to $0.08 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.81 (6.53%) to $13.21 on volume of 9.5 million shares; and
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$1.57 (6.35%) to $26.31 on volume of 6.1 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Healthcare (XHJ), which gained 169.4 points (1.93%) to 8932.2 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 13.19m units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.66m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 0.53m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Healthscope (HSP), +$0.17 (4.14%) to $4.28 on volume of 443.4 thousand shares;
  • Primary Health Care (PRY), +$0.19 (4.03%) to $4.90 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.33 (3.29%) to $10.35 on volume of 406.8 thousand shares;
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.14 (2.33%) to $6.14 on volume of 3.1 million shares; and
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.29 (2.11%) to $14.02 on volume of 1.3 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Telecommunications (XTJ), which climbed 23 points (1.83%) to 1276.7 points. This index only contains 3 stocks; they traded a total of 54.95m units today, and none of the stocks in the index lost ground.

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.07 (1.9%) to $3.75 on volume of 40 million shares;
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.03 (1.46%) to $2.09 on volume of 10.1 million shares; and
  • Singapore Telecommunications (SGT), +$0.02 (0.78%) to $2.60 on volume of 4.8 million shares.

The only declining index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 10.9 points (1.34%) to 802.2 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 202.92m units; The 11 decliners had volume traded totalling 91.69m units, and 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 65.26m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.04 (14.81%) to $0.23 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
  • Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.08 (6.78%) to $1.10 on volume of 7.6 million shares;
  • Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.05 (5.81%) to $0.73 on volume of 8.4 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0 (5.08%) to $0.06 on volume of 4.2 million shares; and
  • Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.01 (4.17%) to $0.23 on volume of 1.3 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3552.9 141 4.13 62m
XHJ Healthcare 8932.2 169.4 1.93 13m
XTJ Telecommunications 1276.7 23 1.83 55m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1098.5 15.8 1.46 30m
XIJ Information Technology 386.6 3.2 0.83 3m
XNJ Industrials 2999 10.4 0.35 82m
XMJ Materials 8497.3 25.6 0.3 173m
XEJ Energy 11648.2 18.5 0.16 33m
XUJ Utilities 4180 6 0.14 25m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6071.5 8.1 0.13 29m
XPJ Property Trusts 802.2 -10.9 -1.34 203m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation. 3.75 0.07 1.9 40m
VPG Valad Property Group 0.04 0.00 0 37.4m
DXS Dexus Property Group 0.74 -0.02 -2 32.3m
LGL Lihir Gold 3.08 0.05 1.65 29.5m
GPT GPT Group 0.79 0.01 1.28 24.9m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CEG CEC Group 0.20 0.04 25.81 61.4k
ALB Albidon 0.07 0.01 20.34 1.5m
BCM Babcock And Brown Capital 1.34 0.17 14.53 154.7k
INP Innamincka Petroleum 0.24 0.03 14.29 1.8m
LNC Linc Energy Ltd 1.31 0.16 13.91 2m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MAFCA Multiplex Prime Property Fund 0.01 0.00 -25 224.6k
NHR National Hire Group 1.50 -0.32 -17.58 6k
BLD Boral 3.45 -0.63 -15.44 16m
MCW Macquarie Countrywide Trust 0.23 -0.04 -14.81 8.1m
AVJ Avjennings 0.31 -0.05 -12.68 15.5k