Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, January 29, 2009

OzRant: How to Build an Innings...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The 'nuffie stampede' came a day earlier than I had anticipated: as I mentioned yesterday, I thought that there was perhaps 200-300 Dow points' worth of upside left in the little bounce off last Friday's little spike down.

Today shows that hope springs eternal - that people are prepared to grasp the nettle much earlier than one would otherwise have expected. 

You expect a few upside sessions in a row before the nuffies get engaged - say, five or six. Then the nuffnuffs pile in (usually at the open, usually on a Monday) and for a few days the same pattern presents itself: massive orgasm at the open, and everyone who buys in the first hours gets hosed by the end of the day.

Today - a mere three sessions after your beloved GT made sure you knew that the thing was going to bounce - we had the textbook nuffie orgasm at the open (in fact, before it). The SPI shot up during the overnight session to 3555, and the ASX opened like a bull in a china shop... and closed significantly below its opening burst.

Oddly enough, there was a spike in the after-market - the SPI shot up to above 3500 again (so your beloved GT shorted 3511 and closed after pocketing yet another hunjie-fiddy). 

Honestly, if the nuffies want to leave all that money lying there just asking to be reaped, who are we to refuse to reap it? Today there was a hunjie in Crude, a hunjie in the S&P, and about five hunjie in the SPI. All without having to leave the crease - playing in the 'V' and eschewing all cross-bat shots.

This is what I have told people since, like, forever: you can take multi-hunjies off the market, every day, without too much fuss - more to the point, without giving a rat's ass where the market is heading longer term. 

All that is required is to play each ball as it comes: look to work the quicker stuff around for singles, and wait for the odd bad ball. 

And there's the rub. If I had been 'on song', that long off 3300 - the equivalent to a half-track slower ball - would have seen your beloved GT down the track, lofting the off-drive. The ball would have been sailing over the head of long-off,  and would have been caught by some fat jerk in a yellow singlet in the 15th row. As it was, a junior-level unforced error meant that I rode the gain for a shorter time than I ought to have: it wasn't a stumping, but it was four all run instead of the contemptuous glare at the bowler and a nonchalant 'fetch that'.

That's the plan - play straight, work the hunjies, and make sure you put away the bad ball. You don't have to be Gilchrist (the best batter ever - sorry, old folks... you can stick Wor. Bro. Bradman up your bum). 

Later in the innings, you can start to try cutting the short ball outside off, but that's the extent of cross-battery. 

It was Wor. Bro. Lord Denning MR - in either Miller v Jackson or Bolton v Stone (the two famous 'cricket cases') - who started a judgement with the phrase "Everybody loves cricket."

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced modestly, rising 26.2 points (0.76%), finishing at 3461.3 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3495.6 at 10:00 am, while the low for the day was 3443 - set at 2:54 pm Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.21bn units, 24.6% above its 10-day average of 967.5m shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1024 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 378 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 579.8m units; there were 405 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 464.2m shares.

Of the 486 All Ordinaries components, 190 rose while 197 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.4:1, with 512.38m shares traded in gainers while 371.73m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 30.7 points (0.88%), closing out the session at 3526.2 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3461.30 26.20 (0.8%)
ASX 20 2119.90 21.00 (1.0%)
ASX 50 3570.00 30.70 (0.9%)
ASX 100 2906.00 25.30 (0.9%)
ASX 200 3526.20 30.70 (0.9%)
ASX 300 3509.80 29.60 (0.9%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3148.90 29.80 (1.0%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1644.50 8.30 (0.5%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 21 points (1.00%), closing out the session at 2119.9 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 13 index components finished to the upside, and 8 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 193.32m units; 13 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 157.3m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 36.02m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.13 (3.71%) to $3.63 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.66 (3.66%) to $18.68 on volume of 7.1 million shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.41 (2.99%) to $14.14 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group (MQG), +$0.77 (2.94%) to $26.97 on volume of 2.4 million shares; and
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.80 (2.68%) to $30.65 on volume of 39.4 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), -$1.5 (4.7%) to $30.40 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Brambles (BXB), -$0.24 (3.52%) to $6.58 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), -$0.2 (2.53%) to $7.70 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.49 (2.05%) to $23.36 on volume of 3.4 million shares; and
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.2 (1.25%) to $15.82 on volume of 6.2 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) advanced by under a percent, adding 8.3 points (0.51%), closing out the session at 1644.5 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 80 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 92 closed lower for the session.

The 209 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 388.49m units: volume in the 80 gainers totalling 193.09m shares, with trade totalling 124.67m units in the index's 92 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Boom Logistics (BOL), +$0.17 (36.17%) to $0.64 on volume of 486.4 thousand shares;
  • Admiralty Resources NL (ADY), +$0.01 (33.33%) to $0.03 on volume of 118.4 million shares;
  • Albidon (ALB), +$0.01 (19.72%) to $0.09 on volume of 604.5 thousand shares;
  • Record Realty (RRT), +$0.00 (14.29%) to $0.01 on volume of 563 thousand shares; and
  • Austereo Group (AEO), +$0.12 (10.6%) to $1.20 on volume of 177.1 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Deep Yellow (DYL), -$0.02 (10.71%) to $0.13 on volume of 270.5 thousand shares;
  • PanAust Ltd (PNA), -$0.02 (10%) to $0.14 on volume of 15.2 million shares;
  • Coffey International (COF), -$0.13 (9.63%) to $1.22 on volume of 53.6 thousand shares;
  • Coeur D'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), -$0.11 (9.09%) to $1.10 on volume of 276.7 thousand shares; and
  • APN European Retail Property Group (AEZ), -$0.01 (8.62%) to $0.05 on volume of 295.8 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3461.3 26.2 0.76 972.3m
XFL ASX 50 3570 30.7 0.87 368.9m
XJO ASX 200 3526.2 30.7 0.88 779.2m
XKO ASX 300 3509.8 29.6 0.85 939.7m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3148.9 29.8 0.96 191.5m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1644.5 8.3 0.51 379.2m
XTL ASX 20 2119.9 21 1 189.9m
XTO ASX 100 2906 25.3 0.88 560.5m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 13 51 96 190 80 378
Declines 8 46 86 197 92 405
Advancing Volume 157.3m 315.9m 370.5m 512.4m 193.1m 579.8m
Declining Volume 36m 283.4m 338.2m 371.7m 124.7m 464.2m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 8 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 3 lost ground.

The best performing index was Information Technology (XIJ), which added 12.4 points (3.21%) to 399 points. This index only contains 2 stocks; they traded a total of 1.94m units today. Both stocks rose as follows:

  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.22 (3.27%) to $6.95 on volume of 1.5 million shares; and
  • Iress Market Technology (IRE), +$0.13 (2.67%) to $5.00 on volume of 403.8 thousand shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Property Trusts (XPJ), which gained 18.4 points (2.29%) to 820.6 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 226.87m units; 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 94.55m shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 90.11m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), +$0.02 (10.53%) to $0.21 on volume of 22.6 million shares;
  • Dexus Property Group (DXS), +$0.04 (4.76%) to $0.77 on volume of 18.4 million shares;
  • CFS Retail Property Trust (CFX), +$0.08 (4.76%) to $1.76 on volume of 8.2 million shares;
  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), +$0.01 (4.35%) to $0.24 on volume of 4.5 million shares; and
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.13 (3.71%) to $3.63 on volume of 3.4 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Utilities (XUJ), which climbed 67.4 points (1.61%) to 4247.4 points. The 11 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 17.82m units; 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10.43m shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.17m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI), +$0.07 (5%) to $1.37 on volume of 895.1 thousand shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Wind Partners Group (BBW), +$0.03 (3.66%) to $0.85 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Duet Group (DUE), +$0.05 (2.5%) to $2.05 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Energy World Corporation Ltd (EWC), +$0.01 (2.22%) to $0.23 on volume of 891 thousand shares; and
  • AGL Energy (AGK), +$0.22 (1.54%) to $14.49 on volume of 864.4 thousand shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Industrials (XNJ), which dipped 26.3 points (0.88%) to 2972.7 points. The 32 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 70.38m units; The 20 decliners had volume traded totalling 45.21m units, and 11 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 21.11m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Transpacific Industries (TPI), -$0.24 (8.14%) to $2.71 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Virgin Blue Holdings (VBA), -$0.02 (4.76%) to $0.30 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • Cabcharge Australia (CAB), -$0.25 (3.91%) to $6.15 on volume of 475 thousand shares;
  • Asciano Group (AIO), -$0.04 (3.67%) to $1.05 on volume of 4.5 million shares; and
  • Brambles (BXB), -$0.24 (3.52%) to $6.58 on volume of 3.4 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 38.7 points (0.43%) to 8893.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 13.89m units; The 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 11.23m units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 1.35m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), -$0.02 (1.79%) to $1.10 on volume of 3.9 million shares;
  • Primary Health Care (PRY), -$0.05 (1.02%) to $4.85 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • CSL (CSL), -$0.33 (0.91%) to $36.07 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), -$0.07 (0.5%) to $13.95 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
  • Ansell (ANN), -$0.02 (0.19%) to $10.48 on volume of 662.8 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which slid 1 points (0.09%) to 1097.5 points. The 23 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 41.76m units; The 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 27.27m units, and 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 7.85m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • West Australian Newspapers Holdings (WAN), -$0.14 (3.26%) to $4.15 on volume of 295.2 thousand shares;
  • Aristocrat Leisure (ALL), -$0.12 (3.01%) to $3.87 on volume of 801.7 thousand shares;
  • David Jones (DJS), -$0.07 (2.88%) to $2.36 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Wotif.com Holdings (WTF), -$0.08 (2.35%) to $3.32 on volume of 304.7 thousand shares; and
  • Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN), -$0.05 (2.29%) to $2.13 on volume of 2.7 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XIJ Information Technology 399 12.4 3.21 2m
XPJ Property Trusts 820.6 18.4 2.29 227m
XUJ Utilities 4247.4 67.4 1.61 18m
XEJ Energy 11826.9 178.7 1.53 35m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3590.6 37.7 1.06 62m
XMJ Materials 8585 87.7 1.03 200m
XTJ Telecommunications 1288 11.3 0.89 82m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6105 33.5 0.55 32m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1097.5 -1 -0.09 42m
XHJ Healthcare 8893.5 -38.7 -0.43 14m
XNJ Industrials 2972.7 -26.3 -0.88 70m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.03 0.01 33.33 118.4m
TLS Telstra Corporation. 3.78 0.03 0.8 61.5m
VPG Valad Property Group 0.04 0.00 -4.76 40.8m
BHP BHP Billiton 30.65 0.80 2.68 39.4m
ABP Abacus Property Group 0.23 0.00 0 35m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BOL Boom Logistics 0.64 0.17 36.17 486.4k
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.03 0.01 33.33 118.4m
AND Andean Resources 1.16 0.24 26.09 2.9m
ALB Albidon 0.09 0.01 19.72 604.5k
SRX Sirtex Medical 1.97 0.27 15.88 61.9k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CXG Coote Industrial Ltd 0.13 -0.07 -35 323.7k
MPF Multiplex Acumen Property Fund 0.07 -0.02 -22.22 302.5k
EFG EVEREST FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED 0.06 -0.01 -15.71 140.2k
CRE Crescent Gold 0.10 -0.02 -13.04 50k
ARH Australasian Resources 0.38 -0.05 -11.76 52.9k