Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, February 02, 2009

OzRant: Why So Glum? We're Gonna Rally...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Had I written a USRant after the Friday meltdown, I would have written something along very much the same lines as the OzRant from the prior Friday (i.e., I am long, watch this bounce).

As was the case on the prior Friday in the Australian market (i.e., ten days ago), last Friday US 'investors' were trading the previous day's story: for the US on Friday it was the non-progress on the 'bad bank aggregator' plan - yet another scam to transfer trillions of dollars from the taxpayer to Wall Street.

The selling continued all day long, and was an advertisement that there were nuffnuffs lining up to be gutted. 

So do not be surprised, dearest Reader, if you wake tomorrow (Strayan time) to discover that the S&P finished up 30 or so points.

Have you noticed how beautifully the 'short EURGBP' thing worked out? Well, at the time EURGBP was in the 0.9350 range... and now it's down at 0.88-odd. 

The short 30-year bond trade is back in the black having survived a massive counter-move; the rally in the Dow finished pretty much exactly where it was expected to... and then sold off too fast, in my view.

What that means, folks, is that global equity markets are likely to spend the next eight sessions taking newbie shorts to the slaughterhouse. 

Tonight I plan to re-enter a DAX long position, after about an hour of the Kraut session... there might well be early weakness, but a decent market bounce this week is pretty much baked in: do not be shocked if, by the end of this week, I am toot-tooting about having said that the DAX will be up 4 or 5% for the week.

Of course that means that for the next four or five sessions, the bobbleheads on Strayan TV will actually be right when they spout their bullish tripe. Don't let it be said that I have joined them in perpetuity: my long-term disaster scenario has not changed, dear Reader... the Dow is going to wind up below the price of gold. I leave it to your imagination to discern what that implies for the Strayan indices...

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - declined gently, dropping 34.6 points (0.99%), finishing at 3443.5 points. 

Total volume traded on the ASX was 899.6m units, 11.3% below its 10-day average of 1.01bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 950 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 297 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 419.6m units; there were 453 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 405.4m shares.

Of the 486 All Ordinaries components, 136 rose while 251 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 318.26m shares traded in gainers while 347.34m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - registered a loss of 43.3 points (1.22%), closing out the session at 3497.4 points.


Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3443.50 -34.60 (1.0%)
ASX 20 2101.90 -28.60 (1.3%)
ASX 50 3537.20 -49.70 (1.4%)
ASX 100 2881.80 -37.10 (1.3%)
ASX 200 3497.40 -43.30 (1.2%)
ASX 300 3482.30 -42.40 (1.2%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3143.90 -12.30 (0.4%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1641.50 -5.90 (0.4%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - registered a loss of 28.6 points (1.34%), closing out the session at 2101.9 points.

Among the 20 big guns, just 2 index components finished to the upside, and 16 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 108.47m units; 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.57m shares, while the 16 decliners had volume traded totalling 85.2m units. The percentage gainers within the index were

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$2.30 (5.46%) to $44.45 on volume of 6.8 million shares; and
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.06 (0.5%) to $12.10 on volume of 5.7 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$1.29 (4.96%) to $24.70 on volume of 892.3 thousand shares;
  • CSL (CSL), -$1.37 (3.65%) to $36.13 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), -$0.25 (3.33%) to $7.25 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.35 (2.5%) to $13.65 on volume of 2.5 million shares; and
  • AMP (AMP), -$0.12 (2.28%) to $5.15 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO), while still dropping overall, did significantly better than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords slid modestly, falling 5.9 points (0.36%), closing out the session at 1641.5 points.

The 209 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 255.93m units: volume in the 64 gainers totalling 102.37m shares, with trade totalling 123.02m units in the index's 117 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • OceanaGold Corporation (OGC), +$0.09 (19.32%) to $0.53 on volume of 4 million shares;
  • Albidon (ALB), +$0.02 (18.75%) to $0.10 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • Henderson Group PLC (HGG), +$0.25 (17.69%) to $1.63 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • City Pacific Limited (CIY), +$0.01 (15.38%) to $0.11 on volume of 139.2 thousand shares; and
  • Oakton (OKN), +$0.08 (14.81%) to $0.62 on volume of 195.3 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Galileo Japan Trust (GJT), -$0.02 (31.03%) to $0.04 on volume of 4 million shares;
  • Alesco Corporation (ALS), -$0.33 (15.49%) to $1.80 on volume of 751.4 thousand shares;
  • Record Realty (RRT), -$0 (14.29%) to $0.01 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), -$0.02 (11.76%) to $0.15 on volume of 1.2 million shares; and
  • Specialty Fashion Group (SFH), -$0.03 (11.11%) to $0.20 on volume of 130.2 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3443.5 -34.6 -0.99 719.1m
XFL ASX 50 3537.2 -49.7 -1.39 275.2m
XJO ASX 200 3497.4 -43.3 -1.22 605.4m
XKO ASX 300 3482.3 -42.4 -1.2 678.6m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3143.9 -12.3 -0.39 158.2m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1641.5 -5.9 -0.36 245.2m
XTL ASX 20 2101.9 -28.6 -1.34 104.1m
XTO ASX 100 2881.8 -37.1 -1.27 433.5m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 2 26 56 136 64 297
Declines 16 67 131 251 117 453
Advancing Volume 12.6m 221.1m 280m 318.3m 102.4m 419.6m
Declining Volume 85.2m 211.5m 291.7m 347.3m 123m 405.4m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, today's market action was dominated by sectoral declines - only one sector managed a gain for the day.

The best performing index was Property Trusts (XPJ), which added 21.6 points (2.66%) to 833.6 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 162.46m units; 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 145.28m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.81m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Mirvac Group (MGR), +$0.13 (10.92%) to $1.27 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
  • Dexus Property Group (DXS), +$0.07 (8.55%) to $0.83 on volume of 10.3 million shares;
  • Goodman Group (GMG), +$0.06 (8.39%) to $0.78 on volume of 14.7 million shares;
  • Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP), +$0.14 (8.09%) to $1.87 on volume of 379 thousand shares; and
  • GPT Group (GPT), +$0.06 (7.89%) to $0.82 on volume of 19.3 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Information Technology (XIJ), which dipped 15.7 points (3.77%) to 400.9 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 1.89m units; both declined - 

  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.3 (4.14%) to $6.95 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
  • Iress Market Technology (IRE), -$0.06 (1.14%) to $5.19 on volume of 125.9 thousand shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Industrials (XNJ), which slid 85.8 points (2.88%) to 2890.7 points. The 32 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 69.68m units; The 25 decliners had volume traded totalling 61.84m units, and 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 5.62m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Alesco Corporation (ALS), -$0.33 (15.49%) to $1.80 on volume of 751.4 thousand shares;
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), -$0.12 (7.5%) to $1.48 on volume of 14.8 million shares;
  • Spotless Group (SPT), -$0.19 (7.45%) to $2.36 on volume of 327 thousand shares;
  • Qantas Airways (QAN), -$0.16 (6.53%) to $2.29 on volume of 7.9 million shares; and
  • Corporate Express Australia (CXP), -$0.23 (6.05%) to $3.57 on volume of 646.6 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 243.1 points (2.67%) to 8865.4 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 8.25m units; The 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 6m units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 2.25m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Primary Health Care (PRY), -$0.19 (3.96%) to $4.61 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • CSL (CSL), -$1.37 (3.65%) to $36.13 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Ansell (ANN), -$0.36 (3.53%) to $9.85 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), -$0.04 (3.33%) to $1.16 on volume of 993.7 thousand shares; and
  • Healthscope (HSP), -$0.11 (2.55%) to $4.21 on volume of 221.7 thousand shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XPJ Property Trusts 833.6 21.6 2.66 162m
XUJ Utilities 4250.6 -19.9 -0.47 15m
XMJ Materials 8528 -82.9 -0.96 179m
XEJ Energy 11790.4 -146.1 -1.22 44m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3554.4 -48.8 -1.35 36m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6066.5 -84.1 -1.37 26m
XTJ Telecommunications 1275 -17.7 -1.37 38m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1060.7 -29.1 -2.67 30m
XHJ Healthcare 8865.4 -243.1 -2.67 8m
XNJ Industrials 2890.7 -85.8 -2.88 70m
XIJ Information Technology 400.9 -15.7 -3.77 2m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MOF Macquarie Office Trust 0.21 0.02 7.89 34.4m
TLS Telstra Corporation. 3.73 -0.06 -1.58 31.1m
LGL Lihir Gold 3.15 0.02 0.64 29.5m
FMG Fortescue Metals Group Ltd 1.95 0.18 10.17 23.9m
GPT GPT Group 0.82 0.06 7.89 19.3m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
OGC OceanaGold Corporation 0.53 0.09 19.32 4m
ALB Albidon 0.10 0.02 18.75 3.3m
HGG Henderson Group PLC 1.63 0.25 17.69 2.8m
CIY City Pacific 0.11 0.01 15.38 139.2k
OKN Oakton 0.62 0.08 14.81 195.3k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
GJT Galileo Japan Trust 0.04 -0.02 -31.03 4m
AXQ Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust 0.00 0.00 -20 546.4k
MEO MEO Australia 0.21 -0.05 -17.65 2.7m
CPB Campbell Brothers 13.07 -2.46 -15.84 159.5k
ALS Alesco Corporation 1.80 -0.33 -15.49 751.4k