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Well, the 'weakness until the inauguration' thesis is still playing out: the mindless low-volume waft of late December and January 2nd has now been given back, although it would take a very serious slip to take the market down to the 7392-odd that marked the bounce low from November. After all, there are only 6 sessions left until the morning of Jan 20th.
As such, the 'tease break' hypothesis is within a session or two of being thrown out the window: the thing needs to accelerate to the downside. that's not to say that it will be all 'Schmiles und Sunschine" if the washout doesn't eventuate before the inauguration.
If there is no washout and the market has a soft downward bias over the next two or three sessions, then we risk a 'no honeymoon for Obama' chute (as the French would say - they might even call it a degringolade) starting on the first catalyst thereafter. There has to be a big takedown in order for the market to do anything constructive between now and May.
Did you notice that the 30-year bond did not benefit - again - from equity weakness? Sure, it rose on a closing basis (a lousy eighth of a point), but three weeeks ago a bad numebr like the employment report would have caused the long end of the yield curve to add two points (or more).
Another harbinger.
What I think is happening, is that people are starting to wake up to what it means when your government starts pumping new fiat money into the economy (defaulting on its debt by stealth, by paying the debt back in dollars of progressively lower scarcity and value). When they run the printing presses as fast as Professor Helichopper has been doing, eventually you end up making everybody a gajillionaire - yippeee! - but a loaf of bread costs a bajillion dollars.
After all, if making people nominal millionaires was a measure of success, then Robert Mugabe is the most successful national leader since Weimar Germany: everybody in Zimbabwe has to spend about 100 million dollars a day just in order to buy necessities.
Economic News
Today was the employment report - which was only as bad as last month's: 524000 jobs lost, wages stagnant (average worke\week down a tad, hourly wage up a tad), and the highly-masaged unemployment rate ticked above 7% to 7.2%.
If you wre to calculate the unemploymentrate using
the methodology that was used frm the dawn of time until the
Clinton era, the actual unemployment rate is above 15% - so if you want
to know why folks think the labour market 'feels' like the late 1970s
despite a 'lower' rate of unemployment, learn to compare apples with
apples.
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 143.28 points (1.64%) to 8599.18 points. The index high for the day was 8769.62 (a minute or two after the open), while the low was 8576.96, set in the last 5 minutes.
Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 757.22m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 14 to one, with 28 decliners to 2 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 713.97m to 43.25m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Citigroup (C) -0.41 (5.7%) to $6.75 on volume of 138.41m shares;
- Alcoa (AA) -0.55 (4.8%) to $10.81 on volume of 20.16m shares;
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -1.25 (4.6%) to $25.97 on volume of 41.83m shares;
- Bank Of America (BAC) -0.55 (4.1%) to $12.99 on volume of 73.52m shares; and
- American Express (AXP) -0.81 (4%) to $19.23 on volume of 12.37m shares.
The S&P500 Index dipped 19.38 points (2.13%) to 890.35 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 3.36bn shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 9.1 to one, with 430 decliners to 47 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 2.89bn to 393.62m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Lennar Corp. (LEN) -2.27 (19.9%) to $9.15 on volume of 58.27m shares;
- AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS) -1.93 (14.8%) to $11.07 on volume of 16.04m shares;
- Liz ClaiborneInc. (LIZ) -0.57 (14.8%) to $3.27 on volume of 3.41m shares;
- Jones Apparel Group (JNY) -0.83 (14.4%) to $4.92 on volume of 2.58m shares; and
- CoachInc. (COH) -2.79 (13.3%) to $18.11 on volume of 15.25m shares.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 45.42 points (2.81%) to 1571.59 points, while the Nasdaq100 dropped 29.51 points (2.36%) to 1223.01 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 841.13m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 7.2 to one, with 86 decliners to 12 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 660.79m to 180.34m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) -1.1 (8.1%) to $12.47 on volume of 4.89m shares;
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) -8.74 (7.9%) to $101.8 on volume of 2.42m shares;
- Sears Holdings (SHLD) -3.25 (6.5%) to $46.73 on volume of 3.44m shares;
- Flextronics International (FLEX) -0.2 (6.3%) to $2.96 on volume of 7.58m shares; and
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) -1.86 (5.9%) to $29.91 on volume of 1.74m shares.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index added +0.26 points (0.61%) to 42.82 points. and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index gained +0.61 points (1.41%) to 43.84 points..
Breadth and Internals
A total of 3866 issues traded today on the NYSE; 1157 stocks posted gains for the day, and there were 2645 losers. 14 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 58 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
On the Nasdaq 2902 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.91bn shares. A total of 720 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 450m shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 2080 losers, and total declining volume was 1.44bn shares. 16 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 32 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 8599.18 | -143.28 | -1.64% |
| S&P500 Index | 890.35 | -19.38 | -2.13% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1571.59 | -45.42 | -2.81% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1223.01 | -29.51 | -2.36% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 42.82 | +0.26 | 0.61% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 43.84 | +0.61 | 1.41% |
Dow Darlings
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.2 (0.4%) to $51.58 on volume of 28.6m units
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) +0.03 (0.1%) to $59.05 on volume of 14.6m units
Dow Duds:
- Citigroup (C) -0.41 (5.7%) to $6.75 on volume of 138.4m units
- Alcoa (AA) -0.55 (4.8%) to $10.81 on volume of 20.2m units
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -1.25 (4.6%) to $25.97 on volume of 41.8m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) -0.55 (4.1%) to $12.99 on volume of 73.5m units
- American Express (AXP) -0.81 (4%) to $19.23 on volume of 12.4m units
Most Traded Dow stocks:
- Citigroup (C) --0.41 (5.7%) to $6.75 on volume of 138.4m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) --0.55 (4.1%) to $12.99 on volume of 73.5m units
- General Electric (GE) --0.14 (0.9%) to $16 on volume of 53m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) --0.6 (3%) to $19.52 on volume of 49.4m units
- Intel (INTC) --0.4 (2.7%) to $14.15 on volume of 45.3m units
Precious Metals
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) slid 2.88 points (2.45%) to 114.53 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 110.61m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 7 to one, with 14 decliners to 2 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 101.69m to 8.93m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- AngloGold Ashanti (AU) -1.42 (5.3%) to $25.39 on volume of 2.14m shares;
- Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) -0.49 (5.3%) to $8.79 on volume of 6.64m shares;
- RandGold Resources (GOLD) -1.84 (4.3%) to $40.81 on volume of 0.69m shares;
- GoldCorp (GG) -1.22 (4.3%) to $27.14 on volume of 15.28m shares; and
- Royal Gold (RGLD) -1.27 (2.8%) to $43.38 on volume of 0.77m shares.
Energy Complex
The Oil Services index (OSX) slid 8.56 points (6.22%) to 129.11 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 94.35m shares. None of the 15 index components rose today: 15 stocks within the index fell, with downside volume of 94.35m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Halliburton (HAL) -2.15 (10.2%) to $19.01 on volume of 23.93m shares;
- Smith International (SII) -2.14 (7.9%) to $25.06 on volume of 3.47m shares;
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) -2.19 (7.5%) to $27.06 on volume of 6.42m shares;
- Nabors Industries (NBR) -0.98 (7.5%) to $12.11 on volume of 6.96m shares; and
- Baker Hughes (BHI) -2.73 (7.4%) to $34.39 on volume of 4.27m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 3.2%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) -0.14 (0.87%) to $16.00 on volume of 53m units.
- Citigroup (C) -0.41 (5.73%) to $6.75 on volume of 138.43m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.20 (0.39%) to $51.58 on volume of 28.65m units.
- IBM (IBM) -2.48 (2.84%) to $84.70 on volume of 7.4m units.
- Intel (INTC) -0.4 (2.75%) to $14.15 on volume of 45.3m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.84 (4.79%) to $16.70 on volume of 67.9m units.
- Google (GOOG) -10.12 (3.11%) to $315.07 on volume of 4.33m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.05 (6.33%) to $0.74 on volume of 8.35m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.02 (2.56%) to $0.76 on volume of 4.29m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) slid 1.76 points (4.23%) to 39.85 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 396.97m shares. None of the 24 index components rose today: 21 stocks within the index fell, with downside volume of 396.97m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Regions Financial (RF) -0.62 (8%) to $7.17 on volume of 10.99m shares;
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) -0.57 (7.1%) to $7.49 on volume of 12.63m shares;
- New M&I Corporation (MI) -0.8 (6.6%) to $11.37 on volume of 3.58m shares;
- Suntrust Banks (STI) -1.6 (5.9%) to $25.56 on volume of 6.02m shares; and
- Citigroup Inc (C) -0.41 (5.7%) to $6.75 on volume of 138.41m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) slid 7.26 points (3.26%) to 215.28 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 216.12m shares. None of the 18 index components rose today: 18 stocks within the index fell, with downside volume of 216.12m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Infineon Tech (IFX) -0.21 (14.4%) to $1.25 on volume of 1.49m shares;
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) -0.42 (5.8%) to $6.86 on volume of 15.44m shares;
- ST Microelectronic (STM) -0.36 (5.2%) to $6.54 on volume of 1.37m shares;
- Linear Technology (LLTC) -1.06 (4.6%) to $22.2 on volume of 5.75m shares; and
- Altera (ALTR) -0.74 (4.5%) to $15.8 on volume of 9.53m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) fell 4.88 points (1.78%) to 268.67 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 80.7m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 7 to one, with 14 decliners to 2 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 76.76m to 3.94m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Gencorp (GY) -0.34 (8.9%) to $3.5 on volume of 0.56m shares;
- Teledyne Tech (TDY) -1.88 (4.3%) to $41.54 on volume of 0.27m shares;
- Esterline Tech (ESL) -1.6 (4.1%) to $37.64 on volume of 0.26m shares;
- FLIRr Systems (FLIR) -0.89 (2.8%) to $30.53 on volume of 1.33m shares; and
- ITT Corporation (ITT) -1.13 (2.3%) to $48.4 on volume of 0.9m shares.
