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There is always some chucklehead who is prepared to make some abstruse reference to the past in order to tout stocks. Last week, after the 250-odd point runup in the Dow on the first trading day of the year, some dill was banging on about how 'the first four sessions set the tone - if the Dow is above water on the end of the fourth session, it's a good year X% o the time".
This was at the end of session 1 (Jan 2nd). By the end of session 4 (yesterday) the Dow had given back the first session's gains, and was underwater (only by a hair) for the year-to-date.
But don't fret - the first four days are meaningless. As I wrote last week, I expected weakness leading into the Inauguration on January 20th - and if the weakness gains traction, a 'tease break' of the November lows.
That scenario would set the stage for a bunch of dummies to be lured into new shorts (nuffnuffs short at lows and buy at highs) and then they could be well and truly fleeced by a god-sized rally lasting at least the first three months of the Obama administration.
Now if we don't get a 'flush', the alternative is that the market has a slight upward bias (but not a big one) until January 20th, then falls apart. the thing to watch is the bond market. If the 10-year to 30-year segment of the curve steepens just a little (i.e., if bond prices fall slightly) then equity markets might just plod along taking everybody's money off them in brokerage.
Conversely, if the bond crackup of the last few sessions continues, then stocks will be dragged into a maelstrom emanating from yet another burst bubble. Today everything took a breather due to a reasonably well-received auction of 10-year bonds, but that appears to be the breather required for the bond market to generate yet more downside energy
Economic News
Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 467k (consensus expected 545k), and Consumer Credit contracted by 7.9 billion (consensus expected no change).
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 27.24 points (0.31%) to 8742.46 points. The index high for the day was 8770.02, while the low was 8651.19.
Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 859.67m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.1 to one, with 16 advancers to 14 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 479.54m to 380.12m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Wal-Mart (WMT) -4.16 (7.5%) to $51.38 on volume of 92.25m shares;
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -0.87 (3.1%) to $27.22 on volume of 51.71m shares;
- General Motors (GM) -0.09 (2.2%) to $4.04 on volume of 14.15m shares;
- Bank Of America (BAC) -0.17 (1.2%) to $13.54 on volume of 93.34m shares; and
- Disney Corp (DIS) -0.28 (1.2%) to $22.9 on volume of 12.59m shares.
The S&P500 index (SPX) rose 3.08 points (0.34%) to 909.73 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 3.58bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.9 to one, with 314 advancers to 163 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 2.21bn to 1.24bn shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) +9.43 (23.3%) to $49.98 on volume of 6.85m shares;
- Whole Foods Market (WFMI) +2.26 (22.6%) to $12.27 on volume of 9.37m shares;
- Liz ClaiborneInc. (LIZ) +0.51 (15.3%) to $3.84 on volume of 2.65m shares;
- GameStop Corp. (GME) +2.97 (13.1%) to $25.58 on volume of 10.5m shares; and
- Qwest Communications Int (Q) +0.46 (12.8%) to $4.04 on volume of 33.1m shares.
The Nasdaq Composite added +17.95 points (1.12%) to 1617.01 points. while the Nasdaq100 rose +13.92 points (1.12%) to 1252.52 points.
Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 876.82m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.9 to one, with 64 advancers to 33 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 599.11m to 276.54m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Level 3 Communications (LVLT) +0.36 (37.5%) to $1.32 on volume of 53.51m shares;
- Sears Holdings (SHLD) +9.43 (23.3%) to $49.98 on volume of 6.85m shares;
- Whole Foods Market (WFMI) +2.26 (22.6%) to $12.27 on volume of 9.37m shares;
- DISH Network (DISH) +1.49 (12.4%) to $13.51 on volume of 7.69m shares; and
- Liberty Global (LBTYA) +2.08 (11.9%) to $19.61 on volume of 4.33m shares.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index dropped 0.83 points (1.91%) to 42.56 points, and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index declined 0.29 points (0.67%) to 43.23 points..
Breadth and Internals
A total of 3872 issues traded today on the NYSE; 2301 stocks posted gains for the day, and there were 1485 losers. 12 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 62 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
On the Nasdaq 2908 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.97bn shares. A total of 1702 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.38bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1087 losers, and total declining volume was 580m shares. 15 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 25 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 8742.46 | -27.24 | -0.31% |
| S&P500 Index | 909.73 | +3.08 | 0.34% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1617.01 | +17.95 | 1.12% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1252.52 | +13.92 | 1.12% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 42.56 | -0.83 | -1.91% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 43.23 | -0.29 | -0.67% |
Dow Darlings
- Alcoa (AA) +0.47 (4.3%) to $11.36 on volume of 20m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.61 (3.1%) to $20.12 on volume of 69.5m units
- Verizon (VZ) +0.49 (1.5%) to $32.39 on volume of 16.3m units
- Du Pont (DD) +0.33 (1.3%) to $25.99 on volume of 8.9m units
- Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +0.84 (1.1%) to $79.09 on volume of 30.6m units
Dow Duds:
- Wal-Mart (WMT) -4.16 (7.5%) to $51.38 on volume of 92.3m units
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -0.87 (3.1%) to $27.22 on volume of 51.7m units
- General Motors (GM) -0.09 (2.2%) to $4.04 on volume of 14.2m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) -0.17 (1.2%) to $13.54 on volume of 93.3m units
- Disney Corp (DIS) -0.28 (1.2%) to $22.9 on volume of 12.6m units
Most Traded Dow stocks:
- Citigroup (C) +0.01 (0.1%) to $7.16 on volume of 104.6m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) --0.17 (1.2%) to $13.54 on volume of 93.3m units
- Wal-Mart (WMT) --4.16 (7.5%) to $51.38 on volume of 92.3m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.61 (3.1%) to $20.12 on volume of 69.5m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.11 (0.8%) to $14.55 on volume of 62.7m units
Precious Metals
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) advanced 6.12 points (5.5%) to 117.41 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 121.27m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 15 to one, with 15 advancers to 1 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 120.44m to 0.83m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Silver Stand Resources (SSRI) +1.94 (11.8%) to $18.32 on volume of 1.58m shares;
- Pan-American Silver (PAAS) +1.4 (8.6%) to $17.75 on volume of 1.61m shares;
- Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.44 (7.7%) to $6.15 on volume of 7.72m shares;
- Newmnt Mining (NEM) +2.64 (7.5%) to $37.75 on volume of 8.29m shares; and
- Kinroos Gold (KGC) +1.26 (7.4%) to $18.2 on volume of 8.04m shares.
Energy Complex
The Oil Services index (OSX) advanced 2.55 points (1.89%) to 137.67 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 98.28m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 6.5 to one, with 13 advancers to 2 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 92.5m to 5.77m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Weatherford International (WFT) +0.67 (5.2%) to $13.62 on volume of 13.62m shares;
- BJ Services (BJS) +0.53 (4.2%) to $13.02 on volume of 4.62m shares;
- Baker Hughes (BHI) +1.2 (3.3%) to $37.12 on volume of 4.42m shares;
- Transocean Inc (RIG) +1.72 (3.1%) to $56.63 on volume of 8.89m shares; and
- Noble Corp (NE) +0.6 (2.5%) to $24.57 on volume of 6.59m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 0.5%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) +0.03 (0.19%) to $16.14 on volume of 62.08m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.01 (0.14%) to $7.16 on volume of 104.63m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) -4.16 (7.49%) to $51.38 on volume of 92.28m units.
- IBM (IBM) -0.61 (0.69%) to $87.18 on volume of 7.23m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.11 (0.76%) to $14.55 on volume of 62.68m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.22 (1.27%) to $17.54 on volume of 46.06m units.
- Google (GOOG) +3.18 (0.99%) to $325.19 on volume of 3.57m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.04 (5.33%) to $0.79 on volume of 26.6m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.03 (4%) to $0.78 on volume of 14.99m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) lost -0.15 points (0.36%) to 41.61 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 390.69m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 1.1 to one, with 11 decliners to 10 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 244.12m to 146.56m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -0.87 (3.1%) to $27.22 on volume of 51.71m shares;
- Capital One Financial (COF) -0.75 (2.4%) to $30.93 on volume of 5.36m shares;
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) -0.13 (1.8%) to $7.02 on volume of 6.68m shares;
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) -0.38 (1.7%) to $22.2 on volume of 2.08m shares; and
- Regions Financial (RF) -0.12 (1.5%) to $7.79 on volume of 9.01m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) declined -0.58 points (0.26%) to 222.54 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 230.72m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 1.3 to one, with 10 decliners to 8 advancers; however advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 139.62m shares to 91.1m. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Infineon Tech (IFX) -0.13 (8.2%) to $1.46 on volume of 1.56m shares;
- Xilinx (XLNX) -0.89 (5%) to $17 on volume of 14.38m shares;
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) -0.17 (2.2%) to $7.54 on volume of 16.38m shares;
- Altera (ALTR) -0.33 (2%) to $16.54 on volume of 10.74m shares; and
- Texas Instruments (TXN) -0.3 (1.9%) to $15.28 on volume of 11.07m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) added 0.51 points (0.19%) to 273.55 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 91.62m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.3 to one, with 9 advancers to 7 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 75.02m to 16.59m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -
- Gencorp (GY) +0.18 (4.9%) to $3.84 on volume of 0.34m shares;
- Northrop Grummanl (NOC) +1.09 (2.3%) to $48.25 on volume of 2.13m shares;
- Esterline Tech (ESL) +0.32 (0.8%) to $39.24 on volume of 0.27m shares;
- General Dynamics (GD) +0.38 (0.6%) to $59.21 on volume of 1.92m shares; and
- L-3 Holdings (LLL) +0.39 (0.5%) to $77.22 on volume of 1.15m shares.
