Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

OzRant: Sphincters Clenched...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Forewarned is forearmed, blah blah blah.  For Australian stocks, that's a tad on the dull side, because when I called for an impending bounce off the recent swing low, I made it clear I was not removing hedges on Australian model portfolios - here is what I said on Feb 22 (with the DAX at 4016) - 

All we are talking about in this exercise is a bear-market bounce which will clear a very heavily oversold condition. We are not looking for a new bull market, and in fact we are not even looking for a bounce which would be good enough to remove portfolio hedges; Australian markets have not fallen as far, and will not bounce as far, as either US or European markets.

The bounce was much stronger than anticipated, but it gave a beautiful short term counter-short at the DAX target of 4688 before markets got an unanticipated second wind. 

The second wind was generated by massive, unsustainable monetary priming, a global co-ordinated jawboning effort worthy of Goebells, and Hope.

It started to get silly when someone in some marketing department came up with 'green shoots': once that was turned into an NBC-ABC-CBS-Bloomberg-CNBC-Fox-CNN-BBC-Sky talking point, it was clear that (to quote our resident chubby genius from Thursday June 11) -

The "Dumb Money At Work" sign is being upgraded to a flashing version with a siren.

The following day (June 12th), in the morning (Asian time) USRant, I nailed the colours to the mast again:

Boring, boring, boring. The Dow made a 7-month high (after making a 13-year low in March) and the entire mainswamp media is awash with pablum about how we're all going to go onwards and upwards from here.
They're wrong: I plan to short the Nikkei today - unlike the DAX short form last week and the SPI short mentioned on Twitter, the Nikkei short will not be short-term - it's going to be a 'leg in' to a long-term short that will probably be held until the end of November. During that period I'll switch out of Nikkei and into DAX and Nasdaq100, but the Nikkei is the best vehicle for the moment.

And from the same day's OzRant:

The Nikkei short that I gabbled about in this morning's USRant has yet to pay off - it's currently underwater by 45 Nikkei points. That's neither here nor there in the scheme of things - as I mentioned, this is a leg in to a position trade: target is a new low in global markets. Tonight I'll scale in a small short in the DAX...

We're not there yet (a new low in global markets) but we've come along nicely: the Nikkei was 10095 (now 9550) and the DAX was 5098 (now 4693, and having a little bounce tonight).

So next time you're watching 'Trading Day' and you see some dick repeating the same tired shit about how our parasitic overlords are getting us out of this mess,turn off your telly and stick a fork in your own thigh - it will help your portfolio to do so.

Tomorrow - why politicians are worse than smallpox, and should be eradicated... featuring Berlusconi's near-paedophilia, the 1918 flu, and some nice detailed comparisons regarding the costs and benefits of wiping out smallpox versus wiping out politicians.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - slid pretty savagely, posting a loss of 117.8 points (3.01%), finishing at 3793 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3910.8 at 10:00 am, while the low for the day was 3786.9 - set at 1:07 pm Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 2.21bn units, 4% above its 10-day average of 2.12bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1449 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 216 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 305m units; there were 921 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 1.59bn shares.

Of the 497 All Ordinaries components, 61 rose while 363 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 9:1, with 131.07m shares traded in gainers while 1.18bn shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - dipped rather savagely, losing 118.2 points (3.02%), closing out the session at 3800 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3793.00 -117.80 (3.0%)
ASX 20 2290.40 -78.30 (3.3%)
ASX 50 3812.20 -125.40 (3.2%)
ASX 100 3109.50 -99.60 (3.1%)
ASX 200 3800.00 -118.20 (3.0%)
ASX 300 3794.70 -118.40 (3.0%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3430.50 -82.00 (2.3%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2017.90 -62.20 (3.0%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 78.3 points (3.31%), closing out the session at 2290.4 points.

Among the 20 big guns, only one component - Foster's Group Ltd (FGL) - kept its head off the chopping block. FGL managed to add $0.04 (0.78%) to close at $5.14 and traded 6.05m shares in the process. 

The 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 169.39m units.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • RioTinto Ltd (Rights) (RIOR), -$1.38 (6.36%) to $20.32 on volume of 9.3 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG), -$2.06 (5.45%) to $35.76 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corp (WBC), -$0.91 (4.52%) to $19.22 on volume of 8.5 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP), -$1.45 (4.11%) to $33.80 on volume of 15.7 million shares; and
  • Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM), -$1.23 (3.94%) to $29.99 on volume of 3.4 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) The small end of the market slid in line with its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords copped a bit of a hiding, sliding 62.2 points (2.99%), closing out the session at 2017.9 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 21 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 179 closed lower for the session.

The 215 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 565.83m units: volume in the 21 gainers totalling 21.69m shares, with trade totalling 518.04m units in the index's 179 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Austereo Group Ltd (AEO), +$0.14 (9.93%) to $1.50 on volume of 441.5 thousand shares;
  • Transfield Services Infrastructure Fund (TSI), +$0.03 (2.91%) to $1.06 on volume of 163.4 thousand shares;
  • Coeur D'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), +$0.40 (2.9%) to $14.20 on volume of 87.5 thousand shares;
  • Austal Ltd (ASB), +$0.05 (1.99%) to $2.56 on volume of 354.3 thousand shares; and
  • NRW Holdings (NWH), +$0.02 (1.79%) to $0.86 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • MEO Australia (MEO), -$0.04 (16.33%) to $0.21 on volume of 17.6 million shares;
  • Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), -$0.05 (15%) to $0.26 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Mintails (MLI), -$0.01 (12.5%) to $0.04 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Riversdale Mining Ltd (RIV), -$0.71 (12.5%) to $4.97 on volume of 1 million shares; and
  • Marion Energy Ltd (MAE), -$0.03 (11.54%) to $0.23 on volume of 1.1 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3793 -117.8 -3.01 1386.7m
XFL ASX 50 3812.2 -125.4 -3.18 447.7m
XJO ASX 200 3800 -118.2 -3.02 1114.1m
XKO ASX 300 3794.7 -118.4 -3.03 1317.4m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3430.5 -82 -2.33 345.3m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 2017.9 -62.2 -2.99 524.5m
XTL ASX 20 2290.4 -78.3 -3.31 175.4m
XTO ASX 100 3109.5 -99.6 -3.1 792.9m
Market Breadth
Advances 1 10 21 61 21 216
Declines 20 95 180 363 179 921
Advancing Volume 6m 106.9m 124.8m 131.1m 21.7m 305m
Declining Volume 169.4m 781.6m 1.01b 1.18b 518m 1.59bn
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the news was universally negative: not a single sector managed to break into the "Win" column.

Since none of the industry sectors registered a gain for the session, there is no point in burdening ourselves with the internal behaviour of advancing sectors... on to the losers.

The worst-performed index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 430.8 points (4.22%) to 9775.5 points. The 47 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 303.62m units; The 45 decliners had volume traded totalling 301.98m units, and 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 1.64m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), -$0.4 (9.83%) to $3.67 on volume of 16.5 million shares;
  • Murchison Metals Ltd (MMX), -$0.16 (9.76%) to $1.48 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Alumina Ltd (AWC), -$0.14 (9.66%) to $1.31 on volume of 14.8 million shares;
  • Perilya Limited (PEM), -$0.04 (9.09%) to $0.35 on volume of 1.2 million shares; and
  • Sundance Resources (SDL), -$0.02 (9.09%) to $0.15 on volume of 20 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Energy (XEJ), which slid 539.7 points (3.72%) to 13968 points. The 23 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 80.72m units; The 21 decliners had volume traded totalling 80.12m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.59m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Riversdale Mining Ltd (RIV), -$0.71 (12.5%) to $4.97 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Centennial Coal Co Ltd (CEY), -$0.29 (11.24%) to $2.29 on volume of 5.9 million shares;
  • Molopo Australia (MPO), -$0.1 (7.95%) to $1.10 on volume of 889.6 thousand shares;
  • Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN), -$0.35 (7.45%) to $4.35 on volume of 3.1 million shares; and
  • WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR), -$1.74 (7.13%) to $22.66 on volume of 1.6 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which slid 149.6 points (3.51%) to 4112.6 points. The 25 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 75.97m units; The 24 decliners had volume traded totalling 75.46m units, - none of the index components ended with a gain. The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Sunland Group Ltd (SDG), -$0.04 (6.02%) to $0.63 on volume of 691.5 thousand shares;
  • Eircom Holdings (ERC), -$0.07 (5.93%) to $1.11 on volume of 160.9 thousand shares;
  • Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG), -$2.06 (5.45%) to $35.76 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Perpetual (PPT), -$1.56 (5.3%) to $27.89 on volume of 118.7 thousand shares; and
  • Australand Property Group (ALZ), -$0.03 (4.95%) to $0.48 on volume of 2.8 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XIJ Information Technology 505.1 -1.8 -0.36 2m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6423.9 -53.3 -0.82 31m
XHJ Healthcare 7926.8 -82.8 -1.03 17m
XTJ Telecommunications 1110.9 -19 -1.68 50m
XPJ Property Trusts 718.1 -13.6 -1.86 358m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1252.1 -24.7 -1.93 50m
XUJ Utilities 3950.9 -78.5 -1.95 48m
XNJ Industrials 2912.2 -72.8 -2.44 188m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4112.6 -149.6 -3.51 76m
XEJ Energy 13968 -539.7 -3.72 81m
XMJ Materials 9775.5 -430.8 -4.22 304m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BLY Boart Longyear 0.21 -0.01 -2.33 63m
GPT GPT Group 0.48 0.01 1.06 62.4m
TLS Telstra Corp Ltd 3.20 -0.07 -2.14 43.5m
MOF Macquarie Office Trust 0.22 -0.01 -4.35 37.3m
OZL OZ Minerals 0.89 -0.05 -5.35 35.6m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
SRX Sirtex Medical Ltd 3.68 0.38 11.52 124k
AEO Austereo Group Ltd 1.50 0.14 9.93 441.5k
SHV Select Harvests Ltd 2.35 0.15 6.82 31.9k
PBT Prana Biotechnology 0.17 0.01 6.25 30k
LEP ALE Property Group 2.49 0.10 4.18 89.1k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MEO MEO Australia 0.21 -0.04 -16.33 17.6m
CMV CMA Corporation 0.08 -0.02 -16 4m
TSO Tishman Speyer Office Fund 0.26 -0.05 -15 2.6m
IAU Intrepid Mines 0.32 -0.06 -14.67 1.9m
IRN Indophil Resources NL 0.46 -0.08 -14.02 4.9m