Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
Everybody thinks that, having rallied 30-odd percent off an interim low, that the market will do - what, exactly? Rally another 30%?
It's mindless - the overwhelming majority of investors were selling in March, and are buying now. The best strategy - as always - is to do the exact opposite of what shills like Kochie, Pascoe, Kohler, Piotrowski and others are waffling about. (Marcus Padley seems to have obtained some contrarian ideas, which is odd since he's a broker at heart).
The next leg will be down. The next leg will be a sight to behold. The next leg will be the one where the previously-impregnable Goldman Sachs, drops to under $40 a share.
The American investing public is gradually becoming aware of just how much Goldman profited from the various daylight-robbery schemes perpetrated of late. And they are aware that Goldman did not profit through honest dealing or through superior analysis, but pure chicanery and corrupt dealing through its proxies at Fed and Treasury.
Expect some real political pressure - including a class action lawsuit by AIG bondholders - and, in all likelihood, some clawback of the tens of billions of dollars funnelled to GS using the AIG bailout as a conduit.
GS's accounts are as crooked as a dog's hind leg - in that they are a perfect reflection of the upper echelons of its management, past and present. If Mozilo (of CountryWide) is going to charged for the chicanery he oversaw, then Mr Hankie ought to be waterboarded (just for fun) and executed without trial (that's how the Yanks now do things to people whose values they don't like).
Matt Taibbi - whose stuff is always brilliant - has a post tangentially related to the GS imbroglio. You really ought to read it if you've not done so already.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - surged a whopping 82.7 points (2.10%), finishing at 4016.3 points. The intraday high was the closing tick, while the low for the day was 3933.6 - at the open. The overwhelming bulk of the move was made in the opening 10 minutes (i.e., the opening match-out), indicating that nuffie enthusiasm was at fever-pitch.
Some of the more trusting (i.e., gullible) technical analysts out there might think that the sbility of the market to close above 4000 was 'encouraging' - I would encourage you to ignore that sort of drivel.
So 'consumer confidence' went up... now correct me if I'm wrong, but where was consumer confidence just before the waterfall to the last swing low? Oh yes... it was at record levels.
ConCon ticked up because most people get everything they know from the idiot-screen; they have no critical filter, and they think that if KRudd and Obama tell them that there are green shoots sprouting out opf every orifice, then by Crom they are going to believe it. Add to that the 'stimulus' cheques that people received, and what's not to be 'confident' about? It's like each overstretched EquityMate fuck-knuckle got a 900-dollar credit card extension.
So anyway - ignore the 'confidence' measure: like most statistics, measures of consumer confidence are a waste of time for both the surveyor and the surveyed.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 2.07bn units, 3.5% below its 10-day average of 2.14bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1369 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 582 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 1.23bn units; there were 452 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 361m shares.
Of the 498 All Ordinaries components, 273 rose while 136 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 5.8:1, with 1.01bn shares traded in gainers while 172.88m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - hurtled skyward to the tune of 89.5 points (2.27%), closing out the session at 4024.4 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 4016.30 | 82.70 (2.1%) |
| ASX 20 | 2426.10 | 53.80 (2.3%) |
| ASX 50 | 4046.30 | 93.00 (2.4%) |
| ASX 100 | 3295.20 | 73.90 (2.3%) |
| ASX 200 | 4024.40 | 89.50 (2.3%) |
| ASX 300 | 4020.00 | 88.60 (2.3%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3586.20 | 65.60 (1.9%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 2148.60 | 37.00 (1.8%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 53.8 points (2.27%), closing out the session at 2426.1 points.
Among the 20 big guns, things were relatively upbeat: only one index component sought to rain on the bull's parade. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 180.1m units; 20 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 172.82m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 7.28m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG), +$1.81 (4.91%) to $38.65 on volume of 2.4 million shares;
- AMP Ltd (AMP), +$0.21 (4.37%) to $5.01 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
- Suncorp-Metway Ltd (SUN), +$0.25 (4%) to $6.50 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
- RIO Tinto Ltd (RIO), +$2.42 (3.43%) to $73.03 on volume of 3.9 million shares; and
- BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP), +$1.20 (3.29%) to $37.70 on volume of 13.7 million shares.
Only one stock in the index declined:
- Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.04 (0.34%) to $11.58 on volume of 7.3 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) The small end of the market slightly underperformed its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords performed solidly, in moving up 37 points (1.75%), closing out the session at 2148.6 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 126 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 55 closed lower for the session.
The 214 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 635.3m units: volume in the 126 gainers totalling 423.9m shares, with trade totalling 91.49m units in the index's 55 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Nexus Energy (NXS), +$0.05 (16.39%) to $0.36 on volume of 34.3 million shares;
- Western Areas NL (WSA), +$0.70 (13.59%) to $5.85 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
- Panoramic Resources (PAN), +$0.29 (12.78%) to $2.56 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
- TEN Network Hldgs (TEN), +$0.11 (10.89%) to $1.12 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
- Murchison Metals Ltd (MMX), +$0.19 (10.73%) to $1.96 on volume of 2.4 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Lend Lease Primelife Ltd (LLP), -$0.01 (8.33%) to $0.11 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
- Minemakers (MAK), -$0.05 (7.09%) to $0.66 on volume of 672.9 thousand shares;
- Energy Resources Of Australia (ERA), -$1.82 (7.07%) to $23.91 on volume of 734.9 thousand shares;
- ING Real Estate Community Living Group (ILF), -$0 (6.9%) to $0.05 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
- Charter Hall Group (CHC), -$0.04 (6.67%) to $0.56 on volume of 3.8 million shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4016.3 | 82.7 | 2.1 | 1452.8m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 4046.3 | 93 | 2.35 | 459.8m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 4024.4 | 89.5 | 2.27 | 1157.3m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 4020 | 88.6 | 2.25 | 1390m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3586.2 | 65.6 | 1.86 | 323.8m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 2148.6 | 37 | 1.75 | 606.4m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2426.1 | 53.8 | 2.27 | 172m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 3295.2 | 73.9 | 2.29 | 783.6m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 20 | 82 | 153 | 273 | 126 | 582 |
| Declines | 1 | 17 | 35 | 136 | 55 | 452 |
| Advancing Volume | 172.8m | 577.8m | 858.2m | 1.01b | 423.9m | 1.23bn |
| Declining Volume | 7.3m | 95.8m | 120.2m | 172.9m | 91.5m | 361m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, 9 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 2 lost ground.
The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 332.2 points (3.15%) to 10888.1 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 311.03m units; 37 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 281.69m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 19.85m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), +$0.48 (15.43%) to $3.59 on volume of 27.1 million shares;
- Western Areas NL (WSA), +$0.70 (13.59%) to $5.85 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
- Panoramic Resources (PAN), +$0.29 (12.78%) to $2.56 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
- Murchison Metals Ltd (MMX), +$0.19 (10.73%) to $1.96 on volume of 2.4 million shares; and
- Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL), +$0.25 (10%) to $2.75 on volume of 28.4 million shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Energy (XEJ), which gained 385.1 points (2.63%) to 15034.3 points. The 22 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 97.05m units; 19 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 91.81m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 0.73m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Nexus Energy (NXS), +$0.05 (16.39%) to $0.36 on volume of 34.3 million shares;
- ROC Oil Co Ltd (ROC), +$0.07 (9.09%) to $0.84 on volume of 9.3 million shares;
- Centennial Coal Co Ltd (CEY), +$0.21 (8.43%) to $2.70 on volume of 4 million shares;
- WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR), +$1.37 (6.09%) to $23.87 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
- OIL Search Ltd (OSH), +$0.27 (4.8%) to $5.89 on volume of 8.1 million shares.
The bronze medal for today goes to Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which climbed 96.9 points (2.34%) to 4237.1 points. The 25 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 85.86m units; 19 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 68.48m shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 17.39m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Henderson Group PLC (HGG), +$0.12 (6.61%) to $1.86 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
- AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd (AXA), +$0.20 (5.19%) to $4.05 on volume of 4.2 million shares;
- Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG), +$1.81 (4.91%) to $38.65 on volume of 2.4 million shares;
- Ioof Hldgs Ltd (IFL), +$0.19 (4.8%) to $4.15 on volume of 299.2 thousand shares; and
- AMP Ltd (AMP), +$0.21 (4.37%) to $5.01 on volume of 6.2 million shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Information Technology (XIJ), which dipped 5.7 points (1.1%) to 512.8 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 1.83m units; The sole declining stock traded 1.26m units, - none of the index components ended with a gain. The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Computershare Ltd (CPU), -$0.13 (1.44%) to $8.90 on volume of 1.3 million shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Utilities (XUJ), which slid 5.7 points (0.14%) to 4139.4 points. The 11 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 46.5m units; The 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 27.25m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 8.87m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), -$0.01 (5.1%) to $0.09 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
- Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI), -$0 (3.61%) to $0.08 on volume of 19.6 million shares;
- Infigen Energy (IFN), -$0.01 (0.8%) to $1.24 on volume of 1.6 million shares; and
- AGL Energy Ltd (AGK), -$0.06 (0.43%) to $14.05 on volume of 2.2 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 10888.1 | 332.2 | 3.15 | 311m |
| XEJ | Energy | 15034.3 | 385.1 | 2.63 | 97m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 4237.1 | 96.9 | 2.34 | 86m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1320.7 | 26.7 | 2.06 | 51m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 7913.8 | 133.4 | 1.71 | 16m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3078.9 | 45.9 | 1.51 | 173m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1135.3 | 15.6 | 1.39 | 61m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6638.6 | 52.8 | 0.8 | 35m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 760.3 | 3.7 | 0.49 | 338m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4139.4 | -5.7 | -0.14 | 47m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 512.8 | -5.7 | -1.1 | 2m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLY | Boart Longyear | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0 | 90.1m |
| GPT | GPT Group | 0.51 | 0.03 | 6.32 | 63.3m |
| TLS | Telstra Corp Ltd | 3.28 | 0.04 | 1.23 | 58.1m |
| CFE | Cape Lambert Iron Ore | 0.36 | 0.02 | 4.41 | 56.6m |
| SDL | Sundance Resources | 0.18 | 0.02 | 9.37 | 54m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWO | Talent2 International Ltd | 1.00 | 0.18 | 21.21 | 160.1k |
| NXS | Nexus Energy | 0.36 | 0.05 | 16.39 | 34.3m |
| FMG | Fortescue Metals Group | 3.59 | 0.48 | 15.43 | 27.1m |
| CWP | Cedar Woods Properties Ltd | 1.55 | 0.19 | 13.97 | 1.7k |
| WSA | Western Areas NL | 5.85 | 0.70 | 13.59 | 3.7m |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPARA | Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings (rights) | 0.20 | -0.03 | -13.33 | 1.2m |
| BUL | Blue Energy | 0.20 | -0.03 | -11.11 | 3.6m |
| NRT | Novogen | 0.79 | -0.08 | -8.67 | 1.6k |
| PBB | Pacifica Group | 0.16 | -0.02 | -8.57 | 15k |
| LLP | Lend Lease Primelife Ltd | 0.11 | -0.01 | -8.33 | 2.3m |
