USRant: Happy Birthday, Littlest Brother...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Economic Statistics

The Mortgage Bankers Association's reported a 2.7% increase in its Purchase Application index to 483.8 (the data reported today were for the pre-Christmas week). Demand in the housing sector is still at mind-boggling levels - although this datapoint is not an end in itself, since there is a gap between applications to get a mortgage and the granting, and any construction and/or sale that happens. Many a slip, as they say - the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agly.

The refinancing index bounced a little in the prior week's data release, but today's release saw that gain evaporate, with interest (things always happen "with interest" in the mortgage market). The refi measure dropped 7.9%. The refi binge seems to be over, despite mortgage rates still near multi-decade lows (the recent average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.72%).

Existing Home Sales rose 2.7% to an annualised rate of 6.940 million units: this beat the consensus guess by a wide margin, but was within the consensus range (consensus was centred on 6.75m annual rate, with a range of 6.650m to 7.03m).

Existing home sales are up 13.2% year-over-year, and prices are up 10.4% for the year (basis the median home price).

Crude oil inventories dropped by 800,000 barrels to 295.1 million. The surprise drawdown sent a shiver through the oil market, with crude spiking immediately after the report, and closing with a gain of over 3%. Prior to the report crude oil futures had been up about a dime. Distillate stocks also fell (by the same amounts): this component of the report includes heating oil - which felt increased demand due to a pre-Christmas cold snap in the North-East.

The US Treasury auctioned $24 billion of 2-year notes. The auction cleared at 3.12%, 17.5 basis points higher than the November auction (bear in mind there has been an interest rate hike since then). The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.00x, well below the 2.61 for November. Foreign central banks and retail demand fell away sharply, with "indirect bidders" dropping to just 34% of the total offering - that's the lowest reading of the year

Forthcoming US Economic Data

Tomorrow's US Economic Data Calendar

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation last night:

• a $4.75billion, overnight repurchase with none of it in T-backed collateral .

That's not playing fair, Greensplatt... if you don't give the vermin some scraps from the monetary policy table, how on earth are they supposed to goose the markets up to my year-end target?

Major US Indices

The trade for the session was almost entirely futures-led; the market topped for the session at 10875 on the Dow futures, and bottomed at 10801 in that same instrument. In other words, some large hedge fund was trading in a bracket.

After some bad news from Beoing, it was always going to be nigh impossible for the Dow to post a gain for the session - however it closed with some decent power and by the closing print had only fallen a little over 25 points. To be more precise, the DJIA dipped 25.35 points (0.23%), closing out the day at 10829.19 points.

The broader S&P500 was almost unchanged, closing with a drop of just 0.09 points (0.01%), at 1213.45.

It was a similar story in the Nasdaq: the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.19 points (0.01%), to close at 2177, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 0.76 points (0.05%), to end at 1624.95 points.

NYSE Volume was soft, with 0.93 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was well below ints recent average, with 1.5 billion shares crossing the tape.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10829.19	-25.35	-0.23%
S&P500	1213.45	-0.09	-0.01%
Nasdaq Composite	2177	-0.19	-0.01%
Nasdaq100	1624.95	0.76	0.05%
NYSE Volume	0.93bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.5bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.18%

• IBM (IBM) -$0.12 (0.12%) to $98.18;
• Intel (INTC) -$0.03 (0.13%) to $23.25;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.54 (0.77%) to $70.38;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.21 (0.39%) to $53.44;
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.20 (0.28%) to $72.69;
• Ebay (EBAY) +$1.41 (1.21%) to $117.57;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.05 (0.26%) to $19.31;
• General Electric (GE) -$0.13 (0.35%) to $36.56;
• Citigroup (C) -$0.34 (0.7%) to $48.01;

Market Breadth & Internals

On the NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1924 to 1380 for a single-day A/D reading of 544; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1648 to 1438.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 522.7 to 377.06 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 457.75 to 391.18 million shares.

180 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 1 posted a fresh 52-week low. On the Nasdaq there were 159 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 3 which fell to fresh 52-week lows

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1924	1438
Decliners	1380	1648
Advancing Volume (m)	522.7	457.75
Declining Volume (m)	377.06	391.18
New Highs	180	159
New Lows	1	3

Market Sentiment

There's not a lot that can be said about the sentiment table that I haven't said before; it tells the story of a dumb-money top-buying spree. Call sellers aren't even prepared to dump on to the bid, because volatility is so damned low... that's the primary reason that call volume is down so hard (which tidies up the put-call ratio a bit).

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Equity Call Volume (000)	1622.58	-985.71	-37.79%
Equity Put Volume (000)	1270.67	225.31	21.55%
CBOE Volatility Index	11.62	-0.38	-3.17%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.72	-0.07	-0.39%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.78	0.38	95.4%
10-day PCR	0.57	0	0%
SPX-VIX Ratio	104.43	3.3	3.26%

Bond Market Analysis

The bond market wasn't very impressed about the homebuilding data, nor was it too keen on the results of the Treasury auction; Bonds fell everywhere except the "anchor" (13-wk bills, which are tied to Fed Funds pretty hard). The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 2.3 basis points to 4.938%; it's coming up to 5% again - having breached it late on my previous timetable - and this time it looks like it's for real.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.206	-0.06	-2.69%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.09	0.03	0.98%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.68	0.03	0.85%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.32	0.028	0.65%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.938	0.02	0.41%

The Banks Index slid 0.3 points (0.29%), ending the day at 104.13; within the index,

• Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) -$0.76 (1.59%) to $47.05;
• Wachovia (WB) -$0.39 (0.73%) to $52.72;
• Citigroup (C) -$0.34 (0.7%) to $48.01;
• Bank Of NY (BK) -$0.17 (0.51%) to $33.41;
• PNC Financial Services (PNC) -$0.26 (0.45%) to $56.93;

The Broker-dealer Index slid 0.84 points (0.55%), closing at 151.89; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Charles Schwab (SCH) -$0.16 (1.34%) to $11.81;
• Jeffries Group (JEF) -$0.53 (1.32%) to $39.60;
• A G Edwards (AGE) -$0.42 (0.97%) to $43.06;
• Raymond James (RJF) -$0.28 (0.9%) to $30.92;
• Bear Stearns (BSC) -$0.61 (0.6%) to $101.83;

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index rose 3.78 points (0.89%), at 430.53

• Altera (ALTR) +$0.15 (0.74%) to $20.43;
• Micron Technology (MU) +$0.29 (2.42%) to $12.26;
• Texas Instruments (TXN) +$0.43 (1.8%) to $24.33;
• Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) +$0.30 (1.69%) to $18.05;
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) +$0.14 (1.68%) to $8.45;

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell hard- dropping $7.60 (1.71%) to close at $437.40 per ounce.

Gold Bugs Index shed 1.81 points (0.83%), ending the day at 215.15

• Iamgold (IAG) -$0.33 (4.76%) to $6.61;
• Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.15 (2.52%) to $5.81;
• Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.05 (1.69%) to $2.90;
• Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.08 (1.13%) to $6.99;
• Glamis Gold (GLG) -$0.18 (1.03%) to $17.32;

Silver fell by $0.19 (2.63%) to close at $6.86 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.42 points (0.42%), to end the session at 98.93 points.

• Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.08 (1.13%) to $6.99;
• Agnico Eagle Mine (AEM) -$0.14 (1.01%) to $13.73;
• Barrick Gold (ABX) -$0.20 (0.83%) to $23.81;
• Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.29 (0.79%) to $36.50;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	437.4	-7.6	-1.71%
Silver	6.855	-0.185	-2.63%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	98.93	-0.42	-0.42%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	215.15	-1.81	-0.83%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $1.81 per barrel after the surprise drawdown in crude oil inventories. The front month contract in the crude futures closed at $43.66 per barrel.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) advanced 4.66 points (0.65%), closing at 723.01

• Sunoco Inc (SUN) +$0.93 (1.15%) to $82.08;
• Marathon (MRO) +$0.35 (0.95%) to $37.17;
• Unocal (UCL) (former employer of US stooge Hamid Karzai)+$0.40 (0.94%) to $43.05;

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index posted a rise of 1.71 points (1.39%), at 124.69

• Nabors (NBR) +$1.09 (2.15%) to $51.84;
• Global Santa Fe (GSF) +$0.65 (2.01%) to $33.02;
• Noble (NE) +$0.94 (1.91%) to $50.05;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	284	0	0%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	43.66	1.81	4.32%
AMEX Oil Index	723.01	4.66	0.65%
Oil Service Index	124.69	1.71	1.39%

Currency Markets

That damned Yen is holding everything up; and it's only holding the market up because enough people think that there will be some co-ordinated intevention in the Yen cross.

Me? I believe that the Japanese and Chinese governments are about to rip the rug out; they understand that once you'vegot a bunch of capital, you can make stuff, and whether you sell it to faan gwai loh (as the Chinese would say... iteki or gaijin in Japanese) or not is a matter of insignificance.

If you're constantly making stuff and selling it to the lo faan, and all they give you is a depreciating piece of paper (which they are deliberately depreciating in order to try and save themselves), sooner or later you re-think the whole strategy.

In other words, while the US thinks it's winning in a game of tic-tac-toe (or checkers) the Chinese are playing Mah-Johngg and the Japanese are playing Go.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	81.12	0.32	0.4%
Euro	1.3607	-0.0003	-0.02%
Yen	103.78	0.72	0.7%
Sterling	1.9186	-0.0096	-0.5%
Australian Dollar	0.7738	-0.0041	-0.53%
Swiss Franc	1.1333	0	0%
Canadian Dollar	0.8255	0.0034	0.41%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index gained 2.33 points (0.06%), to 3827.16 points; the German DAX-30 Index dipped 14.04 points (0.33%), at 4247.75; and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index rose 21.7 points (0.45%), to 4819.8 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	3827.16	2.33	0.06%
DAX-30	4247.75	-14.04	-0.33%
FTSE-100	4819.8	21.7	0.45%

Next-Session Pivots (US Futures Market)

	Dow	S&P500	Nasdaq	Bonds
R2	10895	1220.07	1644	111 25/32
R1	10869	1218.43	1638.5	111 13/32
Pivot	10835	1215.67	1633	111 6/32
S1	10809	1214.03	1627.5	110 26/32
S2	10775	1211.27	1622	110 19/32

USRant: Man, I've GOT to get a USB Keyboard today...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

This typing on the notebook rubbish is making my fingers hurt, and it is taking me AGES to get anything done.

Economic Statistics

The ICSC-UBS Store Sales numbers rose 2.7% for the week, which was the fastest rate of growth since the pre-Christmas week of 2001.

The year-on-year rate jumped to 4.3 percent, the fastest growth rate year on year since July 04 (i.e.,m the previous post-holiday shopping period) and compared with 3.5 percent in the prior week.

Although the blip looks impressive, it remains that the "period since Thanksgiving" sales have only risen 2.5 to 3.0% as `compared with the same period last year... that means (as I've said before) that nominal sales growth is running at a pace which is much lower than supposed "real" GDP growth; in fact, recent sales growth trends mean that full-year sales growth will be lower than even the massaged hedonicised inflation rate. That's zero real growth, goys and girls.

An hour after the ICSC-UBS report, Redbook reported its measure of retail chain store sales, and looked far less robust, showing sales just 3% ahead of last year's corresponding week. The Redbook was also less upbeat in its commentary, describing the pattern of activity as uneven.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index showed that the silly season is upon us, with all indicators showing irrational exuberance. The ConCon number was 102.3, beating the consensus guess (93.0, with a range of 90.5 to 97.1) by a wide margin.

The biggest area of interest in this report was that almost 2.5% more people declared that jobs were plentiful, and the number declaring jobs hard to find fell by a correpsonding proportion - but this survey doesn't track either consumer spending or payrolls data very well at all, so it's nothing to hang your hat on.

There was the usual weekly auciton of 4-week bills - it cleared at 1.84% yield (down from 1.88% last week) as the lower auction volume (another $10b) helped raise prices by constricting supply. The bid to cover ratio dropped from 3.14x to 2.576x. Forthcoming US Economic Data

Tomorrow's US Economic Data Calendar

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation last night:

• a $6.25billion, overnight repurchase with $0.568billion in T-backed collateral .

The biggest proportion of the repo was in the mortgage-backed market - can anyone spell "urgent - Fannie Mae needs support".

Major US Indices

The DJIA added 78.41 points (0.73%), closing out the day at 10854.54 points; the broader S&P500 added 8.62 points (0.72%), closing at 1213.54. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 22.97 points (1.07%), to close at 2177.19, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 16.6 points (1.03%), to end at 1624.19 points.

NYSE Volume was modest, with 0.98 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was about average, with 1.59 billion shares being shifted around

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10854.54	78.41	0.73%
S&P500	1213.54	8.62	0.72%
Nasdaq Composite	2177.19	22.97	1.07%
Nasdaq100	1624.19	16.6	1.03%
NYSE Volume	0.98bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.59bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.62%

• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.12 (0.17%) to $69.84;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.04 (0.08%) to $48.35;
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.70 (0.98%) to $72.49;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.44 (0.83%) to $53.23;
• IBM (IBM) +$0.80 (0.82%) to $98.30;
• Ebay Inc (EBAY) +$3.30 (2.92%) to $116.16;
• General Electric (GE) +$0.12 (0.33%) to $36.69;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.04 (0.21%) to $19.26;
• Intel (INTC) -$0.09 (0.39%) to $23.28;

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2474 to 871 for a single-day A/D reading of 1603; let's get this year-end stupidity over with. Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 2266 to 874

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 783.58 to 179.16 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 562.56 to 355.05 million shares.

206 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 1 posted a fresh 52-week low. On the Nasdaq there were 171 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 3 which fell to fresh 52-week lows

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	2474	2266
Decliners	871	874
Advancing Volume (m)	783.58	562.56
Declining Volume (m)	179.16	355.05
New Highs	206	171
New Lows	1	3

Market Sentiment

This market is being set up royally; the "takedown" will happen sometime early in the new year, adn will be brutal. My year-end target for 1220-1225 is on track, but the next major swing will be down (probably from just above 11,000 on the Dow).

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Equity Call Volume (000)	2608.29	-952.92	-26.76%
Equity Put Volume (000)	1045.36	-1169.56	-52.8%
CBOE Volatility Index	12	-0.27	-2.2%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.79	-0.81	-4.35%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.4	-0.22	-35.56%
10-day PCR	0.57	0	0%
SPX-VIX Ratio	101.13	3.07	3.13%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell along the curve, but the damage was more heavily concentrated at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 9.4 basis points to 4.917%.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.267	0.03	1.3%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.06	0.082	2.75%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.647	0.08	2.3%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.292	0.107	2.56%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.917	0.094	1.95%

The Banks Index posted a rise of 0.52 points (0.5%), closing at 104.43; within the index,

• PN Financial Services (PNC) +$0.68 (1.2%) to $57.19;
• Golden West Financial C (GDW) +$0.71 (1.17%) to $61.40;
• State Street (STT) +$0.48 (0.99%) to $48.90;
• Suntrust Banks (STI) +$0.70 (0.95%) to $74.15;
• MBNA Corp (KRB) +$0.26 (0.94%) to $27.99;

The Broker-dealer Index advanced 1.2 points (0.79%), ending the day at 152.73; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Legg Mason (LM) +$1.24 (1.74%) to $72.40;
• Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.63 (1.59%) to $40.13;
• A G Edwards (AGE) +$0.68 (1.59%) to $43.48;
• Raymond James (RJF) +$0.38 (1.23%) to $31.20;
• Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.13 (0.92%) to $14.27;

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index added 3.66 points (0.87%), to 426.75

• Broadcom (BRCM) +$0.60 (1.91%) to $31.95;
• Novellus Systems (NVLS) +$0.46 (1.72%) to $27.16;
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) +$0.68 (1.51%) to $45.84;
• Micron Technology (MU) +$0.17 (1.44%) to $11.96;
• Maxim Integrated (MXIM) +$0.58 (1.42%) to $41.54;

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $0.8 (0.18%) to close at $445 per ounce.

Gold Bugs Index lost 2.1 points (0.96%), to 216.96

• Golden Star (GSS) -$0.17 (4.07%) to $4.01;
• Goldcorp (GG) -$0.38 (2.47%) to $15.02;
• Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.08 (1.95%) to $4.03;
• Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.11 (1.81%) to $5.96;
• Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.10 (1.39%) to $7.07;

Silver rose $0.04 (0.5%) to close at $7.04 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.77 points (0.77%), to end the session at 99.35 points.

• Durban Roodopoort Deep (DROOY) -$0.06 (3.87%) to $1.49;
• Goldcorp (GG) -$0.38 (2.47%) to $15.02;
• Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.56 (1.5%) to $36.79;
• Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.10 (1.39%) to $7.07;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	445	-0.8	-0.18%
Silver	7.035	0.035	0.5%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	99.35	1.09	1.11%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	216.96	3.08	1.44%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.68 per barrel, closing at $41.89 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) added 3.98 points (0.56%), ending the day at 718.35

• Unocal (UCL) (former employer of HamidKarzai) +$0.65 (1.55%) to $42.65;
• Sunoco (SUN) +$0.84 (1.05%) to $81.15;
• Occidental (OXY) (former employter of Donald Rumsfeld) +$0.59 (1.03%) to $58.13;

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index posted a rise of 0.73 points (0.6%), ending the day at 122.98

• Global Inds (GLBL) +$0.18 (2.2%) to $8.37;
• Tidewater (TDW) +$0.52 (1.49%) to $35.40;
• Transocean (RIG) +$0.50 (1.21%) to $41.85;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	284	1.25	0.44%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	41.89	0.68	1.65%
AMEX Oil Index	718.35	2.09	0.29%
Oil Service Index	122.98	-0.66	-0.53%

Currency Markets

Everybody is still holding their fire on the USD, waiting for the BoJ to intervene at or near 100; the market is being perverted by the requirement to second-guess bureaucrats who would starve to death if they had to make aliving in the private sector. Despite this artificial roof over the Yen, every other currency is tennelling the USD; if 80 breaks on the USDX then a break of 100 Yen is a forgone conclusion and that will open the path down to 70 and 66 on the USDX.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	80.8	0.02	0.02%
Euro	1.361	-0.0004	-0.03%
Yen	103.04	0	0%
Sterling	1.9281	-0.0056	-0.29%
Australian Dollar	0.7783	0.0013	0.17%
Swiss Franc	1.1336	-0.0015	-0.13%
Canadian Dollar	0.8215	0.0013	0.16%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index advanced 7.14 points (0.19%), to end the session at 3824.83; the German DAX-30 Index rose 26.43 points (0.62%), closing at 4261.79 points, and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index added 10.4 points (0.22%), to end the session at 4798.1 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	3824.83	7.14	0.19%
DAX-30	4261.79	26.43	0.62%
FTSE-100	4798.1	10.4	0.22%

Tonight's Pivots (US Futures Market)

	Dow	S&P500	Nasdaq	Bonds
R2	0	0	0	37 29/32
R1	0	0	0	75 27/32
Pivot	0	0	0	37 29/32
S1	0	0	0	75 27/32
S2	0	0	0	37 29/32

USRant: Tomorrow's Another Day

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Call me a big wussie girl's blouse sissy, but today's USRant is proving a little bit too hard...

First, I need the SunJRE to do my daily data-grab (and to run the trading platform, and to do anything bloody USEFUL with a PC), and guess what I didn't install before I left on the trek to Adelaide? Go on... guess.

If you guessed "The SunJRE", well played. If you added "DreamWeaver, the RantMaker, the trading platform and everything else which might prove useful", you get extra credit.

Second, I am still steamed at the semi-female troglodyte at the SA border who confiscated my bananas. (Why is it that "true-believer" government functionaries are almost all female, and almost all built like a turnip?).

So the SA government is undertaking the same stupid "hold back the tide" idiocy as the Vic government has given up on... trying to prevent a flying insect from entering the state by taking people's fruit off them. God stab my vitals... why is this not a restraint on interstate commerce (which is a violation of the Constitution)? It will fail in the end... they can FLY, you morons...

Third, this internet connection (in our lovely serviced apartment in delightful North Adelaide) is pretty awful... it's taken three hours to download MOST of the SunJRE, and I still have to download other things!!

Fourth, the stories about the impotability of Adelaide's water are far too timidly-stated. The stuff tastes like agricultural irrigation runoff, and bioling it doesn't help. As a drinker of strong, sweet black coffee (three heaped tsp of Alta Rica and three heaped tsp of sugar in a good-sized mug), I can tell you that Adelaide's water supply can even make that delightful brew taste like, well, shit...

And lastly, I forgot my USB keyboard for this laptop... that's the final nail. Why notebook keyboards are laid out so shitfully, I don't know. I want my voice-recognition software, dammit.

Tomorrow I will have all my tools and we will be back on line properly...

USRant: Now We Wait For Santa...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Man, is this ever late... I fell asleep at the wheel after spending a few hours playing around with settings on the forums and giving a few folks some admin privileges.

Well, off we trot...

Economic Statistics

Another data-rich day;

Durable goods rose 1.6% which beat the consensus guess (0.7%) by a wide margin; in fact it was outside the upper boundary of the consensus range (-1.0-+1.5%). The headline number was biased due to a bulge in airline orders; once those were backed out, new orders ex-transportation fell 0.8% - and that's on the heels of a 1.3% drop last month.

Our key measure is (repeat after me)

Non-defence capex ex-aircraft.

They were actually not too bad - up 1.8% for the period.

New Jobless Claims were expected to jump by 17,000, and jump they did. By 17,000, as it happens. 333,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the last week, and the number of continuing claims was pretty steady at 2.721million (the continuing claims number refers to the prior week).

Personal Income rose 0.3%, beating expectations of a 0.2% rise. Personal Spending also rose 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. The savings rate rose to a mammoth (I'm being sarcastic) 0.3%... and given that the distribution of income and expenditure in the US is monstrously skewed, you can bet that the savings rate is a decent-sized negative number for people on average earnings and below (that's 65% of all income earners, just quietly - although surveys show that 65% of all people think that they are in the top 10%)

The University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey increased to 97.1 (this is the "final" for the month, and is a revision to the mid-month figure of 95.7 which also serves as the consensus estimate).

The real stinker of the day was New Home Sales, which had their biggest fall in 10 years, and was much worse than consensus. They fell 12% overall, but fell 39% (yes, that's 3 lots of ten and 9 lots of one, not 3.9 or 0.39 or anything trivial) in the MidWest.

Did the market care about any of this, do you think? Not one iota, Virginia... not a jot. The market did what RedMenace expected it to do, and did it without any stir.

Forthcoming US Economic Data

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations last night:

• a $4.5billion, 4-day repurchase with $2.779billion in T-backed collateral; and
• a $10billion. 14-day repo with $7.966 billion in T-backed.

Ah - at last... Uncle Easy turned on the spigots again... which is why the market digested the horrible housing data without even a blink. The repo "buy time" when repo is that large is 10:00 a.m., and the day session low was set at... go on... guess.

Actually the day-session low was set right at the open, but there was dip back towards it which bottomed at.... go on... guess...

That's right... had you bought at 10 a.m. precisely, you would not have experienced no more than a minute underwater for the rest of the session - as the market ground its way toward RedMenace's target of 1216 (expressed in detail in the forums at 7:14 p.m. Australian time - 6 hours before the open).

Examine the chart...

ES 1-minute Intraday Chart

Major US Indices

As you might have expected, once Red's target was reached the market decided it was done for the day. So for the rest of the session the thing flopped around like a landed bass.

The DJIA added 11.23 points (0.1%), closing out the day at 10827.12 points; the broader S&P500 added 0.56 points (0.05%), to 1210.13. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 3.59 points (0.17%), to close at 2160.62, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 0.2 points (0.01%), to end at 1613.77 points.

NYSE Volume was modest, with 0.96 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was also light, with 1.43 billion shares being shuffled in cyberspace.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10827.12	11.23	0.1%
S&P500	1210.13	0.56	0.05%
Nasdaq Composite	2160.62	3.59	0.17%
Nasdaq100	1613.77	0.2	0.01%
NYSE Volume	0.96bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.43bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.34% thanks almost entirely to the mortgage sector (Fannie Mae fell 3.2% all by her fat lonesome):

• General Electric (GE) -$0.07 (0.19%) to $36.77;
• Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.42 (0.79%) to $52.55;
• Cisco (CSCO) +$0.13 (0.67%) to $19.45;
• Intel (INTC) +$0.09 (0.38%) to $23.54;
• IBM (IBM) +$0.11 (0.11%) to $97.72;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.44 (0.91%) to $48.75;
• Ebay (EBAY) -$0.07 (0.06%) to $113.35;
• Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.67 (0.92%) to $71.77;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) -$2.30 (3.2%) to $69.62;

Market Breadth & Internals

On the NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1871 to 1398 for a single-day A/D reading of 473; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1732 to 1359; nothing special there, which is no surprise considering that the market is closed tomorrow.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 555.65 to 389.92 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 499.86 to 305.13 million shares.

211 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 1 posted a fresh 52-week low, while on the Nasdaq there were 133 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 9 which fell to fresh 52-week lows

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1871	1732
Decliners	1398	1359
Advancing Volume (m)	555.65	499.86
Declining Volume (m)	389.92	305.13
New Highs	211	133
New Lows	1	9

Market Sentiment

The option market has gone all droopy in the last session before Christmas; one interesting thing that smart folks like Bernie Schaeffer have noticed is that the massive open interest in December calls was not entirely rolled over into either the new front month or the December05 period. In other words, big buyers of calls are not opening positions (but nor are big sellers of calls trying to write premium... because volatility is too low).

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Equity Call Volume (000)	1448.81	-565.98	-28.09%
Equity Put Volume (000)	1000.63	-439.37	-30.51%
CBOE Volatility Index	11.23	-0.22	-1.92%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	16.8	-0.35	-2.04%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.69	-0.02	-3.37%
10-day PCR	0.57	0	0%
SPX-VIX Ratio	107.76	2.12	2.01%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 0.9 basis points to 4.838%. the short end rose. The bond market had a half-day, so not much can be read into the outcomes.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.152	-0.02	-0.92%
UST 2Y (yld)	2.983	0	0%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.571	0.01	0.37%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.214	0.017	0.41%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.838	0.012	0.25%

The Banks Index gained 0.18 points (0.17%), to end the session at 104.41; within the index,

• Zions Bancorp (ZION) +$0.81 (1.18%) to $69.25;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.44 (0.91%) to $48.75;
• Suntrust Banks (STI) +$0.67 (0.91%) to $74.35;
• Mellon Financial (MEL) +$0.23 (0.74%) to $31.34;
• M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$0.54 (0.5%) to $108.01;

The Broker-dealer Index declined 0.03 points (0.02%), at 151.41; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Ameritrade (AMTD) -$0.16 (1.12%) to $14.09;
• E*Trade (ET) -$0.12 (0.8%) to $14.88;
• Charles Schwab (SCH) -$0.06 (0.5%) to $11.95;
• Legg Mason (LM) -$0.32 (0.45%) to $71.20;
• Lehman Bros (LEH) -$0.30 (0.34%) to $86.97;

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index added 2.38 points (0.56%), at 426.43

• Marvell Tech (MRVL) +$0.94 (2.72%) to $35.54;
• National Semiconductor (NSM) +$0.40 (2.28%) to $17.97;
• Teradyne (TER) +$0.35 (2.16%) to $16.55;
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.29 (1.33%) to $22.12;
• Linear Technology (LLTC) +$0.30 (0.79%) to $38.25;

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $1.80 (0.41%) to close at $442.90 per ounce.

Gold Bugs Index added 1.45 points (0.68%), to end the session at 216.09

• Golden Star (GSS) +$0.26 (6.79%) to $4.09;
• Randgold (GOLD) +$0.33 (2.95%) to $11.50;
• Meridian Gold (MDG) +$0.44 (2.4%) to $18.77;
• Hecla Mining (HL) +$0.14 (2.39%) to $5.99;
• Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +$0.08 (2.03%) to $4.03;

Silver rose $0.08 (1.17%) to close at $6.92 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 0.18 points (0.18%), to end the session at 99.3 points.

• Meridian Gold (MDG) +$0.44 (2.4%) to $18.77;
• Kinross Gold (KGC) +$0.08 (1.15%) to $7.01;
• Goldcorp (GG) +$0.16 (1.05%) to $15.34;
• Newmont (NEM) +$0.24 (0.54%) to $44.97;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	442.90	1.80	0.41%
Silver	6.915	0.08	1.17%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	99.3	0.18	0.18%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	216.09	1.45	0.68%

Oil Market

Oil shed just 2c a barrel closing at $44.18 per barrel. It traded in a pretty narrow range all night, falling as far as $43.75 and rising as high as $44.38. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) advanced 4.49 points (0.62%), to 723.08

• Exxon Mobil Cp (XOM) +$0.68 (1.33%) to $51.97;
• Total S.A. (TOT) +$1.29 (1.2%) to $109.09;
• Royal Dutch Pet A (RD) +$0.67 (1.19%) to $56.95;

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index gained 0.78 points (0.63%), at 125.18

• Global Inds Ltd (GLBL) +$0.17 (2.07%) to $8.37;
• Schlumberger Ltd (SLB) +$0.65 (0.98%) to $67.03;
• Rowan Cos Inc (RDC) +$0.22 (0.85%) to $26.17;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	283.5	1	0.35%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	0	-44.2	-100%
AMEX Oil Index	723.08	4.49	0.62%
Oil Service Index	125.18	0.78	0.63%

Currency Markets

The Euro hit a new all-time high, and set a record close against the USD, as the housing data made it clear that the Fed's interest rate tightening policy is having pretty dramatic effects on the mortgage market; needless to say, it does not matter a damn what happens to US investment in plant and machinery or to Us incomes, if the housing market falls over with any sort of abruptness: people are so leveraged (particularly those who are in the bottom 70% of income earners, who are the ones who do most of the leveraged spending).

The Yen continues to hold the USD up, although RedMenace managed to nail a half a Yen scalp in the Yen/USD cross last night.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	81.59	-0.43	-0.52%
Euro	1.3503	0.0113	0.84%
Yen	103.62	-0.57	-0.55%
Sterling	1.9225	0.0058	0.3%
Australian Dollar	0.7665	0.0031	0.41%
Swiss Franc	1.144	-0.0085	-0.74%
Canadian Dollar	0.8114	0.0053	0.66%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index rose 13.53 points (0.36%), to 3819.68; the German DAX-30 Index posted a rise of 10.34 points (0.24%), closing at 4251.62; and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index posted a rise of 10.3 points (0.22%), at 4787.7 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	3819.68	13.53	0.36%
DAX-30	4251.62	10.34	0.24%
FTSE-100	4787.7	10.3	0.22%

It Was There, Plain As Day...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The first of many... The Red Menace decided to do the S&P futures call tonight over on Pro, and as usual didn't disappoint. With a bullish bias, he targeted 1208 as likely support and 1216 as the likely intrasession high. The low - set about an hour later - was 1209... the high was 1216.50... There was also a lovely call on the Yen as well. Here's the chart:

S&P Futures Intraday 15 minute chart And for you skeptics, here's the call. Nice.

Here's A Sensible Idea

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

How's this for clever:

I've set up a free forum over at the Subscriber Rant (it's the first properly operational segment of MarketRant Pro, so don't get too excited just yet).

This will - I hope - overcome the problems I have had with tracking Comments and responding to them in a timely fashion. The problem here, is that I get an e-mail telling me someone posted a comment, but I can't tell which post it's on.

If you pop over to the new Forums area and register, you'll also be in the draw for one of 25 copies of The Elliott Wave Principle that I have to give away over the next few weeks. Only five will be given to FreeRiders subscribers.

There will also be some short-term "freebie" access to the other forums shortly - at present they are empty anyhow.

Cheers,

GT

OzRant: ex-Divs Weigh on Indices

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Major Market Indices

For once the market didn't try a "pop & drop"; it did the drop in the first twenty minutes and then ground higher. For the first time in a while it didn't set any new records; for each of the last five sessions either the high of the day has been a new record, or the close has been a new record close. Today neither was true.

The weekly chart of the XAO is the most informative here; it's plainly in a "blowoff", parabolic move upwards. Although this could continue for another week, maybe even two or three, there is nowhere to go thereafter but down. Check out the chart; a sensible target for a healthy pullback, is about 3600.

XAO Weekly Chart

Markets are supposed to "breathe"; an accelerating trend is like trying to continually breath in (or out) and an increasing rate... it's doomed to failure. There is precious little breathing happening in this market. Most of the insto "investors", now all obsessed about relative performance on a quarterly basis, are holding their noses and buying beta, simply because the other fool is doing the same.

Interesting things happened in Virgin Blue (VBA -0.02 to $1.87) today, too: that "U" order from E*Trade didn't disappear (but it did move down in the market depth).It's still there, in fact. GSJBW and ML were big offerors of stock in the morning, which was a major catalyst for its weak opening. Then in the aftermarket, there were GSJBW and ML again, doing big overnight cross-trades (one for 500,000 units, and one for 231000 units).

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 1.90 points (0.09%), finishing at 2148.00 points. The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• Alumina (AWC), +$0.05 (0.88%) to $5.76 on volume of 2.01m shares;
• Westfield (WDC), +$0.13 (0.81%) to $16.20 on volume of 2.94m shares;
• Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.32 (0.81%) to $39.92 on volume of 2.34m shares;
• Woolworths (WOW), +$0.09 (0.6%) to $15.14 on volume of 4.16m shares; and
• QBE (QBE), +$0.08 (0.54%) to $14.90 on volume of 550,000 shares

The Top 20's worst performers (in percentage terms) were as follows:

• WOW's "pairs trade" partner Coles Myer (CML), -$0.14 (1.42%) to $9.73 on volume of 5.96m shares;
• News Corpse B (NWS), -$0.27 (1.08%) to $24.63 on volume of 2.77m shares;
• News Corpse A (NWSLV), -$0.20 (0.82%) to $24.05 on volume of 2.99m shares;
• BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.04 (0.26%) to $15.42 on volume of 7.24m shares; and
• Woodside (WPL), -$0.02 (0.1%) to $20.02 on volume of 1.9m shares.

The smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale - the ASX Small Ordinaries - fell by -15.00 points (-0.66%), finishing at 2268.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Henry Walker Eltin (HWE), +$0.08 (18.6%) to $0.51 on volume of 20m shares;
• Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.16 (14.81%) to $1.24 on volume of 3.12m shares;
• Mcpherson (MCP), +$0.25 (4.42%) to $5.90 on volume of 89,000 shares;
• Sally Maly (SMY), +$0.03 (3.49%) to $0.89 on volume of 186,000 shares; and
• Silex (SLX), +$0.04 (3.45%) to $1.20 on volume of 23,000 shares

The following stocks were the recipient of the buttered carrot...

• SDI (SDI), -$0.11 (7.8%) to $1.30 on volume of 922,000 shares;
• Virotec (VTI), -$0.03 (5.66%) to $0.50 on volume of 132,000 shares;
• PEP Investment Fund Units (PIV), -$0.08 (5.52%) to $1.37 on volume of 373,000 shares;
• Austral (AUO), -$0.03 (4.92%) to $0.58 on volume of 2.63m shares; and
• Poor old Metabolic (MBP), -$0.06 (4.69%) to $1.22 on volume of 1.89m shares... was it really only a few sessions ago that the nuffnuffs, full of hope for the thinning of fatties and with stars in their eyes, bought at the ask (at the open) with all their might? As American teenagers say on internet forums...

Bwaahahahahaha. (I think that's an evil laugh)

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4029.4	-8	-0.2%	0
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2148	1.9	0.09%	0
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	3958	-0.3	-0.01%	0
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3276.5	-3.8	-0.12%	0
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4025.9	-6.4	-0.16%	0
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4030.6	-6.5	-0.16%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	4019.7	-30.2	-0.75%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2268.6	-15	-0.66%	0

All Ordinaries Market Internals

As might be expected with a load of property trusts going ex-div, the advance-decline numbers have been thrown somewhat into disarray - and the same is true of the volume stats. Still, book-squaring before the long weekend should see our market soft tomorrow, particularly in the afternoon.

	XAO	XSO
Advances	151	54
Declines	216	102
Advancing Volume	94.36m	46.05m
Declining Volume	215.44m	58.46m

Broad Market Internals

Indicator	Level	+/-	%
Advances	371	-98	-20.9
Declines	454	75	19.79
Unchanged	297	-20	-6.31
Total Traded Value	1766	-483	-21.48
New 52 Week Highs	35	-27	-43.55
New 52 Week Lows	16	-4	-20
Equity Call Option Volume	42226	-21575	-33.82
Equity Put Option Volume	30580	-2665	-8.02

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Telecommunications which gained 0.28% to 1747.10 points. It;s hardly even a sector anymore, with only 2 stocks in the thing... today one of them went up, and one stayed where it was.

• Telecom Nz Nz (TEL), +$0.10 (1.81%) to $5.62 on volume of 374,000 shares;
• Telstra Corporation (TLS), Unchanged at $4.89 on volume of 7.47m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Information Technology which gained 0.23% to 384.20 points. There was only one stock in the sector index that rose - Computershare - but it more than made up for the rest of the index...

• Computershare (CPU), +$0.04 (0.71%) to $5.69 on volume of 822,000 shares;
• ERG Ltd (ERG), unchanged at $0.29 on volume of 1.48m shares;
• Infomedia (IFM), unchanged at $0.76 on volume of 937,000 shares;
• Vision (VSL), unchanged at $1.27 on volume of 503,000 shares; and
• IRESS (IRE), -$0.01 (0.26%) to $3.85 on volume of 110,000 shares.

The bronze today went to ASX200 ex Property Trusts which gained 0.11% to 4803.60 points. The sector was led by

• Lend Lease (LLC), +$0.28 (2.17%) to $13.19 on volume of 560,000 shares;
• FKP Ltd (FKP), +$0.07 (1.89%) to $3.77 on volume of 752,000 shares;
• Oamps (OMP), +$0.02 (0.55%) to $3.67 on volume of 106,000 shares;
• QBE Insurance (QBE), +$0.08 (0.54%) to $14.90 on volume of 550,000 shares; and
• Westpac (WBC), +$0.10 (0.52%) to $19.38 on volume of 1.35m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Property Trusts which lost 1.06% to 1803.80 points - mostly due to straightforward ex-dividend adjustments, but also because some traders aren't aware of the dividend calendar and see the opening weakness as a technical break. Silly buggers...

The LPT sector was dragged lower by

• BWP Trust (BWP), -$0.08 (4.28%) to $1.79 on volume of 91,000 shares;
• Macquqarie Country (MCW), -$0.09 (4.15%) to $2.08 on volume of 2.17m shares;
• Commnwealth Office (CPA), -$0.05 (3.82%) to $1.26 on volume of 1.46m shares;
• DB Reef (DRT), -$0.05 (3.76%) to $1.28 on volume of 2.51m shares; and
• Macquarie DDR (MDT), -$0.04 (3.48%) to $1.11 on volume of 997,000 shares.

Just in front of the last place on the sector table was Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.60% to 2440.30 points. The sector was pulled down by

• Ten Network (TEN), -$0.23 (5.24%) to $4.16 on volume of 2.55m shares; TEN went ex-div as well, and had no otehr substantive news. I wonder if there were just some resting stops that got hit as a reuslt of blindness with respect to the dividend calendar?
• Colorado (CDO), -$0.28 (4.38%) to $6.12 on volume of 224,000 shares;
• Macquarie Commercial Stapled (MCG), -$0.18 (3.15%) to $5.53 on volume of 788,000 shares;
• APN News & Media (APN), -$0.13 (2.48%) to $5.12 on volume of 208,000 shares; and
• Housewares (HWI), -$0.05 (1.89%) to $2.60 on volume of 42,000 shares.

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%
XTJ	Telecommunications	1747.1	4.9	0.28%
XIJ	Information Technology	384.2	0.9	0.23%
XXJ	ASX200 ex Property Trusts	4803.6	5.2	0.11%
XHJ	Healthcare	4572.9	3.2	0.07%
XUJ	Utilities	4424.2	2.8	0.06%
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5581.6	2.8	0.05%
XMJ	Materials	6631.9	-6.2	-0.09%
XFJ	Financials	4788.3	-7.4	-0.15%
XNJ	Industrials	4835.5	-8.7	-0.18%
XEJ	Energy	6965.3	-37.8	-0.54%
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2440.3	-14.7	-0.6%
XPJ	Property Trusts	1803.8	-19.4	-1.06%

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ZYL	Zylotech	0.005	0..002	66.67%	89.87m
CEUCA	ConnectEast (LyingBRACKS)	0.67	0.01	1.52%	74.62m
CUO	Copperco	0.022	0.001	-4.35%	29.66m
ADY	Admiralty	0.07	0.003	-4.23%	25.34m
TOX	Tox Free	0.03	0.01	20%	25.18m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
HWE	Henry Walker Eltin	0.51	0.08	18.6%	20m
UNW	Unwired Group	0.69	0.09	15%	906620
CMQ	Chemeq	1.24	0.16	14.81%	3.12m
IHG	Intellect Holdings	0.033	0.002	6.45%	180000
CAG	Cape Range	0.039	0.002	5.41%	461000

All Ordinaries Top Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
BSO	Bass Strait Oil	2.33	-0.47	-16.79%	258702
MIG	Macquarie Infrastructure	3.40	-0.62	-15.42%	7.77m
SDI	SDI Limited	1.30	-0.11	-7.8%	921965
ABI	Ambri	0.12	-0.01	-7.69%	203060
CMK	Cumnock Coal	0.60	-0.05	-7.69%	11400

Elsewhere in the Region...

New Zealand had a pretty ordinary session, with not much happening - very narrow range. Unlike us, the Kiwis managed to squeak out a small gain for the day, with the NZSE adding 7.3 points. It traded briefly above 3000 intraday (but it has been as high as 3024.45), and was led by

• Restaurant Brands (RBD), +$0.03 (2.38%) to $1.29 on volume of 9,000 shares;
• Nuplex Industries (NPX), +$0.11 (1.97%) to $5.70 on volume of 27,000 shares;
• Lion Nathan (LNN), +$0.16 (1.79%) to $9.10 on volume of 7,000 shares;
• Cavalier Corporation (CAV), +$0.07 (1.58%) to $4.50 on volume of 3,000 shares;
• Michael Hill International (MHI), +$0.10 (1.27%) to $8.00 on volume of 7,000 shares; and
• NGC Holdings Limited (NGC), +$0.03 (1%) to $3.04 on volume of 582,000 shares.

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	2998.758	7.3	0.24%	-na-
Japan	Nikkei 225	Closed (National Holiday)
Korea	KOSPI	873.32	-10.06	-1.14%	235728
Singapore	Straits Times	2052.82	-2.95	-0.14%	32.97m
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	14160.75	9.67	0.07%	77.15m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	908.45	5.15	0.57%	15.8m

Main SFE Futures Contracts

Code	Instrument	Close	+/-	%	Volume
SPI05M	SPI200 Index SFE	4050	5	0.12%	8037
IR05M	90-day Bank Bills SFE	94.63	0	0%	5976
YT05M	3-yr Bond SFE	94.91	0.01	0.01%	10099
XT05M	10-yr Bond SFE	94.72	0.01	0.01%	4762

USRant: Oil Slides and Stocks Fire

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Economic Statistics

It was a pretty data-rich night: by and large the data were neutral, with the exception of one number that has the markets fascinated at the moment.

I love the word "fascinated", because it's a pretty twisted little number . It's rude, it's pagan, it's just everything you want to be^®.

Why rude? Simply where it comes from - its etymology.

It derives from the Latin fascinum, which was a large pole (I know, it's getting phallic already, and it doesn't stop there, believe me). Devotees (women, mostly - but also some slim and tidy "confirmed bachelors") used to stare at the fascinum for long periods of time, eventually reaching a state of disembodied ecstasy.

So that's what fascinated means. I never get fascinated - I'm neither slim nor tidy.

I promise - no more digressions from now on (until the next one).

MBA Purchase Appplications dropped 3.6% to 471.1; however the Refinancing component rose 5.7%, reversing a 2-week decline. Mortgage rates continue to hold the line, which is the primary reason that everything is not going to hell in the housing (and homebuilding) market.

National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) After-tax Corporate Profits were reported as growing 5.8% year on year, which is dreadfully slow if it translates into a stock-market earnings growth measure. Thankfully (for the bulls) it doesn't... for a start the whole "after tax" idea implies paying tax, which is only done by doofuses who run hamburger shops and others who can't afford to shift offshore.

The revised GDP numbers came in at 4% "real" growth (which beat expectations by a tick... consensus called for 3.9%). As Bill Gross has previously helped me by pointing out a year after I pointed it out, a number like 4% actually means 2.7%-3% actual "real" growth, but is massaged upwards thanks to hedonic indexing. The GDP deflator came in at 1.4%, was higher than the consensus estimate (1.3%) but lower than reality (which, accounting for hedonics again, was about 2.4% at least).

None of these numbers mattered - everybody is fascinated by all things oil.

The EIA Petroleum Status report showed Crude inventories up 2.1m barrels, which nobody expected. Actually, nobody expected anything, because nobody compiles a consensus estimate for this now-important number. Still, it was the largest inventory build for some time, and the oil market bulls hated it. Everything went berserk as soon as the number was released... or did it?

As it happens, only stocks and oil reacted. Bonds, Gold, Currencies all treated the number with disdain. So the oil market - which has a whole slew of newbie oil longs - got thrashed again, and equity nuffnuffs got talked into "lower oil is good for stocks" by BubbleVision and to rest of the stock pimps.

Tomorrow is a big-ticket day for data as well - the table below shows the release schedule and the consensus estimates.

Release Time (ET)	Period	Data	Expected	Previous
8:30	18-Dec week	Initial Jobless Claims	+18K	-43K
8:30	Nov	Personal Income	0.002	0.006
8:30	Nov	Personal Spending	0.003	0.007
8:30	Nov	Durable Goods	0.006	-0.011
9:45	Dec	Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	95.8	95.7
10:00	Nov	New Home Sales	-0.007	0.002
10:00	40878	DJ-BTM Business Barometer		-0.002

Forthcoming US Economic Data

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase operation last night:

• a $3.25billion, 2-day repurchase with a paltry $0.658billion in T-backed collateral .

No sauce for da Boyz, plus the market-fascinating oil inventory report, meant that no longs should have been initiated at 10 a.m.; thatturned out to be a sensible thing to do (there was plenty of time to get long after the oil report).

Major US Indices

As I mentioned above, not a lot happened until the oil inventories report. Then, all hell broke loose (upwards in stocks, and downwards in oil).

To get some idea of just how "single issue" this data was for stocks, check out the series of charts below...

First, the chart that started it all... Oil:

Oil Futures Intraday 5 minute chart

The move in the oil market wasn't a huge surprise; there is a lot of new, dumb money, and most of it is long. Look at any Commitment of Traders report and you will see "non-reportable" long positions climbing... a lot of that is newcomers to the commodities markets, who are thinly funded and don't fully appreciate that leverage can hurt you if you're not diligent.

The Dow & the S&P reacted immediately too...

Dow Intraday 5 minute chart

S&P Futures Intraday 5 minute chart

If the oil number was genuinely important, you would have expected inflation-sensitive and economically-sensitive things to move - like, say, Gold...

Gold Intraday 5 minute chart

Or maybe Bonds...

30-yr Bond Futures Intraday 5 minute chart

Hmmm... nothing there... what about currencies (like the Euro?... ...

Euro Currency Futures Intraday 5 minute chart

In other words, the dumber the constituency, the bigger the response. There are some dumb FX, Gold and Bonds traders out there, to be sure - but as a proportion of the total market they are almost insignificant.

By the close, the DJIA had posted a rise of 56.46 points (0.52%), closing out the day at 10815.89 points; that's a new high for the yeasr, albeit a marginal one (the previous year high was the previous session, and you had to go back to the start of the year - when the Dow hit 10753 in traday - to get the prior high.

The broader S&P500 added 4.12 points (0.34%), ending the day at 1209.57; the futures fulfilled out expectations of a move to 1212-1215 perfectly, hitting 1214.50 intraday. The only problem was the lack of a decent pullback - I had expected it to pull back to 1205, but it only got down to 1206.75.

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.12 points (0.28%), to close at 2157.03, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 4.31 points (0.27%), to end at 1613.57 points.

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.39 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was fairly chunky, with 1.81 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10815.89	56.46	0.52%
S&P500	1209.57	4.12	0.34%
Nasdaq Composite	2157.03	6.12	0.28%
Nasdaq100	1613.57	4.31	0.27%
NYSE Volume	1.39bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.81bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.65%, thanks in large part to a bounce in Fannie Mae aftrer it fired its two top honchos (Oh, my mistake... they "retired" - and of course the accounting shenanigans had nothing to do with it). Also, the most manipulated large-cap stock in the entire US market - Citigroup - was also given a damned good goosing.

• Intel (INTC) -$0.04 (0.17%) to $23.45;
• Cisco Sys (CSCO) -$0.04 (0.21%) to $19.32;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$1.57 (2.23%) to $71.92;
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.64 (0.89%) to $72.44;
• Wal Mart Stores (WMT) +$0.37 (0.7%) to $52.97;
• Citigroup Inc (C) +$1.12 (2.37%) to $48.31;
• IBM (IBM) +$0.59 (0.61%) to $97.61;
• Ebay Inc (EBAY) -$0.28 (0.25%) to $113.42;
• Gen Electric Co (GE) -$0.11 (0.3%) to $36.84;

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing issues exceeded decliners by 1977 to 1366 for a single-day A/D reading of 611;that's ebullient, but not utterly mindless. Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1733 to 1387.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 855.66 to 496.55 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 602.85 to 385.08 million shares.

291 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 2 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 147 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 7 which fell to fresh 52-week lows

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1977	1733
Decliners	1366	1387
Advancing Volume (m)	855.66	602.85
Declining Volume (m)	496.55	385.08
New Highs	291	147
New Lows	2	7

Market Sentiment

In the leadup to the long weekend, it's normal for the options volume to dry up - after yesterday's ludicrous 0.39 Put-Call Ratio was replaced by a much tamer 0.71. The VIX and the SPX-VIX ratio are stil screaming "Sell! SELL... FOR GOD'S SAKE, SELLLLLL"... or words to that effect. But we already know that the S&P futures will hit 1220 before year end, so selling would be silly.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Equity Call Volume (000)	2014.79	-1546.42	-43.42%
Equity Put Volume (000)	1439.91	-775.01	-34.99%
CBOE Volatility Index	11.45	-0.82	-6.68%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.15	-1.45	-7.8%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.71	0.09	14.91%
10-day PCR	0.57	0	0%
SPX-VIX Ratio	105.64	7.58	7.73%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell a teensy bit at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 5 basis points to 4.828%. All in all it was a wash - to be expected when tomorrow is only a half-day in teh bond market.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.172	-0.02	-1.14%
UST 2Y (yld)	2.991	0.013	0.44%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.557	-0.01	-0.22%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.197	0.012	0.29%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.828	0.005	0.1%

The Banks Index advanced 0.61 points (0.59%), to 104.23; within the index,

• Citigroup Inc (C) +$1.12 (2.37%) to $48.31;
• US Bancorp (USB) +$0.64 (2.07%) to $31.52;
• Bank Of N Y (BK) +$0.40 (1.2%) to $33.70;
• Washington Mutual (WM) +$0.49 (1.18%) to $42.00;
• Bank Of America (BAC) +$0.49 (1.06%) to $46.80;

The Broker-dealer Index gained 0.64 points (0.42%), to 151.44; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• E*Trade (ET) +$0.30 (2.04%) to $15.00;
• Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.60 (1.54%) to $39.60;
• Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$0.58 (1.06%) to $55.08;
• Merrill Lynch (MER) +$0.31 (0.52%) to $59.56;
• Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.04 (0.28%) to $14.25;

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index dipped 0.35 points (0.08%), closing at 424.05

• Marvell Tech (MRVL) -$0.35 (1%) to $34.60;
• National Semiconductor (NSM) -$0.13 (0.73%) to $17.57;
• ST Microelectronic (STM) -$0.13 (0.67%) to $19.19;
• Freescale Semi (FSL-B) -$0.09 (0.51%) to $17.69;
• K L A-Tencor (KLAC) -$0.23 (0.5%) to $45.83;

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $3.80 (0.85%) to close at $441 per ounce.

Gold Bugs Index shed 1.58 points (0.73%), closing at 214.64

• Randgold (GOLD) -$0.30 (2.62%) to $11.17;
• Iamgold (IAG) -$0.17 (2.52%) to $6.58;
• Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.07 (2.37%) to $2.88;
• Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.17 (1.81%) to $9.23;
• Newmont (NEM) -$0.72 (1.58%) to $44.73;

Silver fell by $0.04 (0.58%) to close at $6.84 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.87 points (0.87%), to end the session at 99.12 points.

• Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.17 (1.81%) to $9.23;
• Newmont (H (NEM) -$0.72 (1.58%) to $44.73;
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.14 (1.1%) to $12.61;
• Placer Dome (PDG) -$0.20 (1.06%) to $18.65;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	441.00	-3.80	-0.85%
Silver	6.835	-0.04	-0.58%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	99.12	0.86	0.88%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	214.64	0.76	0.36%

Oil Market

The AEI oil Inventories data knocked the stuffing out of the oil price; ten minutes before the data, the crude oil front-month was trading up about a dime; five minutes after the data it was trading down about a buck. I've mentioned the possible changes in the picture-word exchange rate before... it was set at 1000 some time ago, and that was the rate quoted by David Gates in 1971 (the year that the US closed its Gold window). Technological change and productivity enhancements have probably altered it, but I still like using graphs, and I think that the little collection earlier in the Rant showed that only equity morons and the oil market itself (now full of new nuffnuffs) thought the AEI data was remotely important.

Oil lost ground, shedding $1.49 per barrel, closing at $44.20 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) dipped 5.86 points (0.81%), to end the session at 718.59, led lower by -

• Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$1.60 (2.67%) to $58.27;
• Unocal (UCL) -$0.83 (1.91%) to $42.55;
• Sunoco (SUN) -$1.03 (1.24%) to $81.85;

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index declined 2.01 points (1.59%), to 124.

• Varco (VRC) -$0.78 (2.6%) to $29.17;
• Transocean (RIG) -$1.07 (2.49%) to $41.92;
• Nabors (NBR) -$1.26 (2.37%) to $51.82;

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	282.5	1	0.36%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	44.20	-1.49	-3.26%
AMEX Oil Index	718.59	2.33	0.33%
Oil Service Index	124.4	0.76	0.61%

Currency Markets

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	82.02	-0.05	-0.06%
Euro	1.3388	0.0025	0.19%
Yen	104.21	-0.15	-0.14%
Sterling	1.9139	-0.013	-0.67%
Australian Dollar	0.7637	-0.0008	-0.1%
Swiss Franc	1.1526	-0.001	-0.09%
Canadian Dollar	0.8053	-0.0064	-0.79%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index added 36.12 points (0.96%), to 3806.15 points; the German DAX-30 Index advanced 26.89 points (0.64%), at 4241.28; and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index added 44.4 points (0.94%), to 4777.4 points.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	3806.15	36.12	0.96%
DAX-30	4241.28	26.89	0.64%
FTSE-100	4777.4	44.4	0.94%