Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.
- a $7.5billion, overnight repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral; and
- a $5billion, 14-day repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral.
The first repurchase was a sneaky little bugger... it was announced fifty seconds before 10 a.m. (which is the usual "jump time" for any repo shenanigans). If the 14-day renewal had been the only repo, the likelihood of a good sized jamjob would have been lower and the trade would not have been worth a punt. As it turned out though, 10 a.m. was the session low - despite the fact that the market softened back to a loss overall for the day.
Major US Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average couldn't break 10600 for any length of time, and bounced off its session low (set at 10 a.m.) to back above 10650, then wiggled in the 10650-10600 range for most of the session. By the close it had shed 6.72 points (0.06%), closing out the day at 10626.35 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10658.64, and fell as low as 10598.34 during the session.
Within the blue-chip index, 12 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Exxon Mobil (XOM, +1.99% to $61.49) and Wal Mart (WMT, +1.95% to $52.33), which accounted for 16 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 18 and were led by American International Group (AIG, -3.34% to $60.80) and General Motors (GM, -2.28% to $28.35), with these two stocks contributing -20 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 254.4m shares to 86.2m.
The broader S&P500 posted a rise of 2.14 points (0.18%), at 1190.21. Both of the big-cap indices have formed rather ominous looking intraday technical setups - "flats" of a sort - so don't be surprised if the expiration session tomorrow has some fireworks. The market is pretty much at it's "MaxPain" level (the level which results in the highest aggregate value of puts and calls dying out of the money - i.e., the level that results in the maximum profit for options sellers) so any good sized break tomorrow would be technically driven rather than the result of expiration shenanigans.
Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.67 points (0.03%), to close at 2016.42, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 1.4 points (0.09%), to end at 1487.63 points.
NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.58 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.76 billion shares being flipped around. Again, take note of the OTCBB volume (not shown, but you can find it on the web). It's consistently above 2 billion units, and always greater than both the Nasdaq and NYSE volume. And the OTCBB is made up of what I call "pervert" stocks - there are almost no listing requirements, and very little investor protection. That's fine so long as folks know what they're exposing themselves to... but think on this: the last time OTCBB volume outstripped NYSE and Nasdaq volume was in mid 2000.... connect the dots.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10626.35 | -6.72 | -0.06% |
| S&P500 | 1190.21 | 2.14 | 0.18% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2016.42 | 0.67 | 0.03% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1487.63 | 1.4 | 0.09% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.58bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.76bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.77%
- General Electric (GE) -$0.37 (1.04%) to $35.37;
- Citigroup (C) -$0.13 (0.27%) to $47.24 (it's going to be close as to whether those puts finish in the money!!);
- Wal Mart (WMT) +$1.00 (1.95%) to $52.33;
- I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.79 (0.87%) to $89.86;
- Intel (INTC) -$0.13 (0.55%) to $23.41;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.04 (0.22%) to $18.03;
- eBay (EBAY) -$0.36 (0.99%) to $36.12;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -$2.45 (4.3%) to $54.50; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.43 (0.67%) to $64.02.
The AAPL $42.50 puts that were purchased at $80 (and rose as high as $390 in the two weeks after) have softened - predictably. But Jeez Louise... if a trade is up almost 5-fold and you can't manage to finagle a gain out of it, you're in the wrong game!!
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1907 to 1371 for a single-day A/D reading of 536; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1535 to 1531. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to -329.5 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to -322.4.
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 900 to 635.7 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 890 to 842.9 million shares.
61 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 79 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 48 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 88 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| Market Breadth Statistics | ||
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 1907 | 1531 |
| Decliners | 1371 | 1535 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 899.99 | 842.94 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 635.74 | 889.95 |
| New Highs | 61 | 48 |
| New Lows | 79 | 88 |
| Market Sentiment Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 13.29 | -0.17 | -1.26% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 18.46 | -0.48 | -2.53% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.85 | -0.13 | -13.27% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.78 | 0.02 | 2.18% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 89.6 | 1.29 | 1.46% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds continued a pretty anaemic bounce, despite the lack of obvious pointers from the data. The Leading Indicators - which don't lead a damn thing, except that it leads uneducated fools to write cheques to the Conference Board - were in line at 0.1;.the Philly Fed was way below consensus at 11.4 with consensus at 20). Jobless claims fell by 10k, but that wasn't the catalyst either. They were just oversold.
At the long end, the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 3.2 basis points to 4.76%.The 10-year yield fell back below 4.5%, and it looks like 4.25%-4.2% is "make or break" for the 5-year (which will also trigger curve trades to unwind some "carry" - that will exacerbate the steepening of the yield curve, which will change FNM & FRE's hedging, which will trigger more long-end selling).
| Treasury Yields | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.727 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.66 | -0.03 | -0.81% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 4.136 | -0.048 | -1.15% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.47 | -0.048 | -1.06% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.76 | -0.032 | -0.67% |
The Banks Index gained 0.04 points (0.04%), closing at 98.44; within the index,
- Golden West Financial (GDW) +$0.78 (1.33%) to $59.39;
- Regions Financial (RF) +$0.34 (1.03%) to $33.24;
- PNC Financial Services (PNC) +$0.37 (0.71%) to $52.64;
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) +$0.49 (0.71%) to $69.76; and
- BB&T Corp (BBT) +$0.21 (0.54%) to $39.20.
The Broker-dealer Index added 0.82 points (0.55%), to 150.28; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$1.85 (1.97%) to $95.60;
- Legg Mason (LM) +$1.57 (1.9%) to $84.12;
- Raymond James (RJF) +$0.41 (1.29%) to $32.28;
- Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.42 (1.08%) to $39.45; and
- Bear Stearns (BSC) +$0.86 (0.84%) to $102.99.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index rose 0.88 points (0.21%), at 417.8
- Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) +$0.21 (1.2%) to $17.72;
- Novellus Systems (NVLS) +$0.29 (1.08%) to $27.23;
- Applied Materials (AMAT) +$0.14 (0.87%) to $16.17;
- National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.16 (0.77%) to $20.99; and
- Texas Instruments (TXN) +$0.19 (0.75%) to $25.64.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold fell by $5.20 (1.17%) to close at $439.20 per ounce. USD stops falling for a couple of days and dollar longs/gold shorts get all twitterpated (and conversely, short-horizon "high buyers"... nuffnuffs, of course - get stale and bail). It's nearly time for the USD to make a decision one way or t'other... break 80 and drop another 10 points in the next few months, or "tickle" 80 and then snap some nuffie's necks by rallying for six months (every journalist and taxi driver knows about being short the USD... what does that tell you?)
Gold Bugs Index lost 0.06 points (0.03%), at 220.15
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.14 (3.29%) to $4.11;
- Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.11 (1.85%) to $5.84;
- Newmont Mining (NEM) -$0.30 (0.67%) to $44.64;
- Goldcorp (GG) -$0.06 (0.39%) to $15.34; and
- Glamis Gold (GLG) -$0.06 (0.36%) to $16.82.
Silver fell by $0.05 (0.61%) to close at $7.39 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 0.16 points (0.16%), ending the day at 101.6 points.
- Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) +$0.04 (4.82%) to $0.87;
- Harmony Gold (HMY) +$0.16 (1.78%) to $9.16;
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$0.64 (1.57%) to $41.48; and
- Placer Dome (PDG) +$0.15 (0.86%) to $17.60.
| Precious Metals and Indices | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 439.20 | -5.20 | -1.17% |
| Silver | 7.39 | -0.05 | -0.61% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 101.6 | 0.16 | 0.16% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 220.15 | -0.06 | -0.03% |
Oil Market
Oil lost ground, shedding $0.52 per barrel, closing at $55.95 per barrel. During the session it got up as high as $57.60 - then at precisely 1 p.m. the foot went on the neck and every single 'breakout nuffie" got absolutely smacked. I mentioned several session ago that oil was being taken down - hard - to get nuffnuffs to jump off, triggering mini-cascades... whereupon smart money would then buy it all the way up again (until the nuffies started to come in again, then boom... again!). It's as simple as that...
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) advanced 12.93 points (1.51%), closing at 866.75
- Sunoco (SUN) +$2.47 (2.48%) to $102.07;
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) +$1.76 (2.48%) to $72.76; and
- Kerr Mcgee (KMG) +$1.89 (2.41%) to $80.29.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index advanced 0.41 points (0.3%), closing at 137.51
- Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.36 (4.09%) to $9.26;
- Transocean (RIG) +$1.23 (2.56%) to $49.33; and
- Halliburton (HAL) +$0.72 (1.72%) to $42.62.
| Energy Complex | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 321.5 | -0.92 | -0.29% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 55.95 | -0.52 | -0.92% |
| Heating Oil | 1.5749 | -0.02 | -1.04% |
| Natural Gas | 7.155 | -0.04 | -0.62% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.5512 | 0 | 0.23% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 866.75 | 12.93 | 1.51% |
| Oil Service Index | 137.51 | 0.41 | 0.3% |
Currency Markets
| USD Exchange Rates | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 81.79 | 0.2 | 0.25% |
| Euro | 1.3372 | -0.0043 | -0.32% |
| Yen | 104.51 | 0.36 | 0.35% |
| Sterling | 1.9248 | -0.001 | -0.05% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7928 | -0.0005 | -0.06% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.1569 | 0.0043 | 0.37% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8321 | 0.0028 | 0.34% |
