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Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk did not enter the market.. NO REPO FOR YOU! Said the repo-nazi.
Major US Indices
The DJIA gained 63.77 points (0.59%), closing out the day at 10830 points; it gained every single point of that move in the first half-hour, and spent the rest of the session trying to hold it. The only time the index fell below 10800 during the session was during the lunch interval, and then only for about 3 minutes - at which point a 50-point rally ensued.
Within the blue-chip index, 24 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Intel (INTC +2.63% to $24.62) and Caterpillar (CAT +2.44% to $97.37). Losers in the Dow numbered 6 and were led by Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.91% to $62.10) and Alcoa (AA -1.43% to $31.66). To put the CAT move into context, it contributed about 17 Dow points, although its percentage move was smaller than Intel's (INTC contributed about 4.6 Dow points). And that's despite the fact that INTC dwarfs CAT in terms market cap. Volume traded in Dow stocks was tilted in favour of the gainers by 318.8m shares to 55.3m. Not quite a 6:1 tilt...
The broader S&P500 rose 6.81 points (0.57%), to end the session at 1210.41. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite posted a rise of 19.53 points (0.95%), to close at 2071.25, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 16.23 points (1.07%), to end at 1527.25 points.
NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.71 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was also solid, with 1.96 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| DJIA | 10830 | 63.77 | 0.59% |
| S&P500 | 1210.41 | 6.81 | 0.57% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2071.25 | 19.53 | 0.95% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1527.25 | 16.23 | 1.07% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.71bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.96bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 1.02%
- General Electric (GE) +$0.02 (0.06%) to $35.22;
- Citigroup (C) +$0.16 (0.34%) to $47.88;
- Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.43 (0.83%) to $52.04;
- I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.72 (0.78%) to $93.30;
- Intel (INTC) +$0.63 (2.63%) to $24.62;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.08 (0.46%) to $17.50;
- eBay (EBAY) -$0.26 (0.61%) to $42.58;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +$1.11 (1.9%) to $59.57; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +$1.76 (2.84%) to $63.76.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE advancing issues exceeded decliners by 2139 to 1189 for a single-day A/D reading of 950; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1871 to 1250. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to 305.0 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 34.7.
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1129.6 to 553.4 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1409.8 to 511.2 million shares.
203 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 18 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 127 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 58 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 2139 | 1871 |
| Decliners | 1189 | 1250 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 1129.63 | 1409.82 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 553.41 | 511.17 |
| New Highs | 203 | 127 |
| New Lows | 18 | 58 |
Market Sentiment
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 12.04 | -0.04 | -0.33% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 17.78 | -0.29 | -1.6% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.49 | -0.16 | -24.62% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.58 | -0.03 | -4.92% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 100.53 | 0.8966 | 0.9% |
Bond Market Analysis
The short position in the 30-year bond futures added another couple of ticks in profit for the session, with the bond closing at 112 & 28/32. At the moment the protective stop on this trade should be at 114 - thus locking in $3000 profits per contract in a little over three weeks.
The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose 1.5 basis points to 4.721%; the 5-year yield closed above 4% (only just) for the first time since mid-June 2004.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.692 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.56 | -0.02 | -0.56% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 4.008 | 0.01 | 0.33% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.372 | 0.013 | 0.3% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.721 | 0.015 | 0.32% |
The Banks Index gained 0.93 points (0.93%), to end the session at 100.45; within the index,
- Northern Trust (NTRS) +$1.28 (3.03%) to $43.53;
- Mellon Financial (MEL) +$0.70 (2.44%) to $29.38;
- M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$2.36 (2.38%) to $101.37;
- Regions Financial (RF) +$0.56 (1.74%) to $32.82; and
- State Street (STT) +$0.65 (1.48%) to $44.50.
The Broker-dealer Index rose 2.28 points (1.55%), to 149.29; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.93 (2.44%) to $39.09;
- Merrill Lynch (MER) +$1.35 (2.3%) to $59.93;
- E*Trade (ET) +$0.28 (2.11%) to $13.55;
- Raymond James (RJF) +$0.59 (1.94%) to $31.05; and
- Bear Stearns (BSC) +$1.87 (1.88%) to $101.37.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index advanced 9.82 points (2.25%), ending the day at 447.05
- Teradyne (TER) +$0.58 (3.76%) to $16.00;
- National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.70 (3.51%) to $20.65;
- Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) +$0.67 (3.49%) to $19.85;
- Xilinx (XLNX) +$1.04 (3.44%) to $31.24; and
- ST Microelectronic (STM) +$0.56 (3.15%) to $18.35.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold fell by $3.10 (0.71%) to close at $433.70 per ounce. Its only obvious catalyst to the upside in the short term is continued weakness in the US dollar. The US dollar index is now in no-man's land, however - it didn't get anywhere near a genuine medium term bullish trigger at 87, but will find it hard to break 80 without a fight. If the USD is rangebound, then so is gold.
The Gold Bugs Index declined 4.8 points (2.23%), at 210.52
- Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.87 (4.5%) to $18.48;
- Randgold Resources (GOLD) -$0.57 (4.16%) to $13.12;
- Golden Star (GSS) -$0.11 (3.85%) to $2.75;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.23 (3.46%) to $6.41; and
- Goldcorp (GG) -$0.35 (2.56%) to $13.32.
Silver fell by $0.13 (1.76%) to close at $7.24 per ounce.
The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 2.12 points (2.14%), to 96.85 points.
- Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.06 (5.71%) to $0.99;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.87 (4.5%) to $18.48;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.23 (3.46%) to $6.41; and
- Goldcorp (GG) -$0.35 (2.56%) to $13.32.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 433.7 | -3.1 | -0.71% |
| Silver | 7.241 | -0.13 | -1.76% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 96.85 | -2.12 | -2.14% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 210.52 | -4.8 | -2.23% |
Oil Market
Oil lost ground, shedding $0.12 per barrel, closing at $51.63 per barrel. The front-month futures contract dipped as low as $50.75 before rallying over a dollar, setting a high above $51.80.
The oil price has rebounded after a pretty predictable pullback from the $55-ish level (here is the link where I predicted it - search in that post for the phrase "intermediate top").
Now it is due for another rest on a short-term basis.
Anyone who stood aside at $55 (per the September 23 post) and then listened to my exhortation to buy around $40 (look for "be a buyer" in the December 4th issue) has had a good year on that trade alone.
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) slid 12.26 points (1.42%), at 849.13
- Unocal (UCL) -$1.19 (2.2%) to $52.91;
- ConocoPhillips (COP) -$2.39 (2.16%) to $108.50; and
- Amerada Hess (AHC) -$2.15 (2.14%) to $98.25.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index dipped 3.57 points (2.52%), to end the session at 137.87
- Rowan Companies (RDC) -$1.15 (3.63%) to $30.53;
- Noble Corp (NE) -$2.02 (3.54%) to $55.05; and
- Varco International (VRC) -$1.29 (3.42%) to $36.42.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 305.26 | 0.26 | 0.09% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 51.63 | -0.12 | -0.23% |
| Heating Oil | 1.4649 | -0.0265 | -1.78% |
| Natural Gas | 6.681 | -0.017 | -0.25% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.4031 | 0.1575 | 12.64% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 849.13 | -12.26 | -1.42% |
| Oil Service Index | 137.87 | -3.57 | -2.52% |
Currency Markets
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 82.78 | 0.24 | 0.29% |
| Euro | 1.3184 | -0.0038 | -0.29% |
| Yen | 104.41 | -0.21 | -0.2% |
| Sterling | 1.9207 | -0.0001 | -0.01% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7869 | -0.0043 | -0.54% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.1653 | 0.0027 | 0.23% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8059 | -0.0045 | -0.56% |
