Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

TootRant: A Double-Banger...

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Well, it's time for yet another in the seemingly never-ending series of TootRants. Today it was the S&P (ES) futures, and the 10-year bond (ZN) futures. The timing and placement on the ES trade was somewhat dicey in the early going, and the bond trade was facing the slower bowling from both ends.

The initial declaration was thus:


Short the S&P (ES) - currently bid 1271.75. Targets in points: (1, 3.5, 6)

Buy the 10year (currently 105-14.5/32) targets in ticks: (3, 8, 12).

Let's go get 'em.


The ES popped up almost a full point before I had even pressed 'send' after I typed in the "currently bid" number; still, that forms the 'as if' basis for things. Everyone who got the e-mail should have been entering well above 1272.50.

Let's take each trade in turn... if you look at the charts you will be able to see the CCI divergences (but I have not marked them - you're supposed to KNOW how to see them).

First the S&P500 e-mini (chart shows day session only)...

Some might hve been forgiven for thinking that the buying frenzy just after the open was 'real'and was therefore going to produce the RantReconrd's first losing trade in almost six months. Not a bit of it... the entire programspurt was a desperation move by a load of people trying to hold this sucker together. Still, it must suck being a one-lotter, having a one point target and having to ride a 4-point negative excursion...

June06 e-mini S&P index

After the third target was hit, I declared "Fielder's Choice" - leaving it up to subscribers as to whether they took the six points (US$300) per contract, or slapped a trailing stop on the thing and rode what wasto come... here's the actual post:

post-USSpy low is 1263 - cleared the 6-point target 3 by more than two points.

Now, those still holding are pretty much on their own; there's probably going to be some benefit to trailing a stop behind this one (sorry to one and two-lotters, but you'll get to 3+ shortly). I hereby declare "Fielder's Choice"


Not a lot of ambiguity there... and the thing finished just under 20 points (US$1000) from the entry. The RantRecord only keeps that six from the explicit target...

Now let's examine the 10-year trade... it was more better in that there was no negative excursion (the entry was within 2 ticks of the day's low) - but BOY was it a slow one. It was like facing off-spinners from both ends, with the field spread deep and wide. Still, it got there in the end- all three targets knocked over like tail-enders facing Murali. Again, I declared "Fielder's Choice" when the third target was hit, and those still holding made a little over 25% in the session.

June06 10-year bond