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Once in a blue moon, Madame Market rings a bell. She gets all the nuffnuffs on one side of the boat, and makes it abundantly clear that the only thing missing from the setup is the Dumb Money at Work sign.
So here it is...
Because seriously, this is close to the 2002 SuperTrade setup in terms of the configuration of price.
Gold - down. Oil - down. USDX - up. And yet not a damn thing has changed except the noise emanating from CNBC and the other echo-chambers.
It's not today (the low in Oil and Gold), but the low will be within a week. Platinum - advocated in this very blog as the harbinger of a Precious Metals decline some weeks ago (go on, Doubting Thomas, scroll down to the Precious Metals section in this post US Economy Smells Like Poo from Feb 26th...) - as I was saying, Platinum defied the rest of the Precious Patch and rose today.
And I am here to tell you, Gentle Reader - it wasn't rising as a result of increased foreseen demand as a result of the great news about solar energy (Platinum is one of the important catalysts in the storage mechanism).
Nope - not a bit of it. It rose today because every nuffnuff that bought in, is now either out or short. Nuffnuff open interest peaked (as a proportion of outstanding open interest) just prior to my "Platinum will fall 20% from here, or you may call me Meyer" post back in Feb. The Dumb Bull Ratio was as high as I have ever seen it in PL, and fading it - betting that the nuffnuffs were going to get slaughtered - worked a treat.
But at the moment the setup for going the other way is so perfect that - as the French might say - il faut se mefier (you must distrust). it is a bit too well set up.
So wait. Keep powder dry. But be prepared (those of you who pay for the signals, that is) to be Long PL and GC and EC and CL or NG, and short DX and ZB. As with the 2002 SuperTrade, this setup will quintuple its money in a month and a half (the 2002 SuperTrade was up 165% in its first week).
Three near-perfect setups in a decade ... it's enough to make you belive in a Sky Wizard.Economic News
The Fed didn't raise rates. What a surprise. Watch out below for the USDX.
Fed Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations:
- a 28 Days repurchase totalling $20bn, and
- a 1 Day repurchase totalling $5bn, with $0.200 billion in Treasury-backed collateral, with a weighted average rate of 2.030%.
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave Bernanke a Greenspan-like rub-n-tug, advancing a whopping 331.62 points (2.94%) to 11615.77 points. it is a question for greater minds than ours, dearest Reader, as to why on earth it would do that when the Fed basically signalled that it is prepared to throw the USD under a bus.
The index high for the day was 11615.93 - within seconds of the close - while the low was 11286.02 set at the open. Total volume traded in the index was 837.42m units: 29 issues rose, trading a total upside volume of 816.37m units; 1 Dow component fell (Chevron (CVX) -0.31 (0.4%) to $82.49) and it traded a lousy 21.05m units.
Major Dow advancers were -
- AIG (AIG) +3.2 (12%) to $29.89 on volume of 41.21m shares;
- Boeing (BA) +3.84 (6.3%) to $65.2 on volume of 8.78m shares;
- General Motors (GM) +0.59 (5.8%) to $10.69 on volume of 20.32m shares;
- Citigroup (C) +1.09 (5.8%) to $19.92 on volume of 91.47m shares; and
- American Express (AXP) +1.87 (5.1%) to $38.72 on volume of 14.42m shares.
The S&P500 Index advanced +35.87 points (2.87%) to 1284.88 points. Total volume traded in the index was 4.13bn units. Within the index, 452 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 3.6bn units; 41 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 462.09m units. 9:1 upside volume is what you see at a top.
Major S&P500 advancers -
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +1.77 (15%) to $13.6 on volume of 31.83m shares;
- Lehman Bros. (LEH) +2.3 (12.8%) to $20.24 on volume of 35.57m shares;
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) +2.3 (12.2%) to $21.08 on volume of 6.28m shares;
- American Int'l. Group (AIG) +3.2 (12%) to $29.89 on volume of 41.21m shares; and
- Capital One Financial (COF) +4.68 (11.5%) to $45.23 on volume of 13.65m shares.
All told, 3466 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4.8 billion shares. 2519 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 3.89 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 867 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 0.97 billion shares. 55 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 111 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced +64.27 points (2.81%) to 2349.83 pointsl the Nasdaq100 advanced +64.92 points (3.6%) to 1869.76 points. Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 was 1.08bn units. Within the index, 95 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 1.0bn units; just 5 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 53.77m units.
Contributing to the advance were -
- UAL (UAUA) +1.31 (14.7%) to $10.24 on volume of 33.85m shares;
- Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) +2.57 (11%) to $25.87 on volume of 1.78m shares;
- Sears Holdings (SHLD) +8.78 (10.6%) to $91.56 on volume of 6.34m shares;
- Henry Schein (HSIC) +5.21 (9.7%) to $58.68 on volume of 2.08m shares; and
- Monster Worldwide (MNST) +1.56 (9%) to $18.9 on volume of 5.16m shares.
On the Nasdaq 2996 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.3 billion shares. A total of 1931 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.96 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 944 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 0.33 billion shares. 61 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 115 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
The CBOE Volatility Index lost 2.4 points (10.22%) to 21.09 points. The CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 1.98 points (7.18%) to 25.58 points.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 11615.77 | +331.62 | 2.94% |
| S&P500 Index | 1284.88 | +35.87 | 2.87% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2349.83 | +64.27 | 2.81% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1869.76 | +64.92 | 3.6% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 21.09 | -2.40 | -10.22% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 25.58 | -1.98 | -7.18% |
Most Traded Dow stocks were
- Citigroup (C) +1.09 (5.8%) to $19.92 on volume of 91.5m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.93 (3.7%) to $26.21 on volume of 84.1m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) +0.96 (2.9%) to $33.58 on volume of 73.5m units
- Pfizer (PFE) +0.73 (3.8%) to $19.71 on volume of 56.5m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.64 (2.9%) to $23.02 on volume of 53.8m units
Precious Metals
Precious metals futures were very weak - except fopr our harbinger.
| Precious Metals Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 876.8 | -26.7 | -2.96 |
| Silver | 16.455 | -0.685 | -4 |
| Palladium | 349.9 | -4.55 | -1.28 |
| Platinum | 1576.1 | 13.1 | 0.84 |
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 153.81m units. Within the index, 1 issue rose, with aggregate volume of 13.51m units; 15 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 140.3m units.
Today the index fell by 7.68 points (4.96%) to 147.19 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Silver Wheaton (SLW) -1.34 (11.3%) to $10.52 on volume of 8.12m shares;
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -0.22 (8.5%) to $2.36 on volume of 16.53m shares;
- GoldCorp (GG) -2.7 (7.7%) to $32.55 on volume of 15.06m shares;
- Pan-American Silver (PAAS) -2.14 (7.5%) to $26.24 on volume of 2.05m shares; and
- Barrick Gold (ABX) -2.96 (7.4%) to $37.06 on volume of 14.52m shares.
Energy Complex
Energy futures continued their recent weakness - almost every thinly-capitalised trader in the world must now be eitehr flat or short Crude. Back up the truck... not today, but very soon.
| Energy Futures | |||
| Commodity | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Crude Oil | 118.54 | -2.87 | -2.36 |
| Heating Oil | 3.2753 | -0.0748 | -2.23 |
| Natural Gas | 8.659 | -0.067 | -0.77 |
| Gasoline RBOB | 2.9412 | -0.059 | -1.97 |
| Ethanol | 2.189 | -0.056 | -2.49 |
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 134.12m units. Within the index, 10 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 74.34m units; 5 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 59.78m units.
Today the index rose by 0.62 points (0.21%) to 290.38 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Cameron International (CAM) +1.28 (2.8%) to $46.96 on volume of 5.23m shares;
- Schlumberger (SLB) +1.5 (1.6%) to $95.91 on volume of 10.26m shares;
- Smith International (SII) +1.07 (1.5%) to $70.71 on volume of 4.56m shares;
- Tidewater (TDW) +0.81 (1.5%) to $55.13 on volume of 1.65m shares; and
- Transocean Inc (RIG) +1.43 (1.1%) to $133.18 on volume of 10.33m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 5%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) +1.08 (3.83%) to $29.25 on volume of 51.69m units.
- Citigroup (C) +1.09 (5.79%) to $19.92 on volume of 91.48m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +1.91 (3.27%) to $60.34 on volume of 37.56m units.
- IBM (IBM) +1.31 (1.03%) to $128.87 on volume of 6.96m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.64 (2.86%) to $23.02 on volume of 53.78m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.66 (3%) to $22.65 on volume of 66.95m units.
- Google (GOOG) +16.85 (3.64%) to $479.85 on volume of 3.52m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +1.77 (14.96%) to $13.60 on volume of 31.84m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.52 (6.91%) to $8.04 on volume of 53.63m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; today every single one of them rose, and total volume traded in the index was 588.68m units.
Today the index rose by 3.56 points (5.37%) to 69.81 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Capital One Financial (COF) +4.68 (11.5%) to $45.23 on volume of 13.65m shares;
- Wachovia (WB) +1.95 (11.4%) to $19.06 on volume of 90.1m shares;
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) +3.28 (10.8%) to $33.57 on volume of 4.83m shares;
- New M&I Corporation (MI) +1.3 (8.3%) to $16.87 on volume of 5.97m shares; and
- Bank Of NY Mellon (BK) +2.73 (7.7%) to $38.17 on volume of 17.4m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 204.96m units. Within the index, 17 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 188.01m units; 1 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 16.95m units.
Today the index rose by 10.56 points (3.11%) to 350.26 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.59 (7.6%) to $8.4 on volume of 2.43m shares;
- National Semiconductor (NSM) +1.08 (5.2%) to $21.74 on volume of 6.25m shares;
- ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.53 (4.7%) to $11.73 on volume of 1.53m shares;
- Broadcom (BRCM) +1.09 (4.5%) to $25.33 on volume of 12.5m shares; and
- Altera (ALTR) +0.94 (4.3%) to $22.61 on volume of 10.07m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 82.72m units. Within the index, 16 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 82.26m units; 1 issue fell, with aggregate volume of 0.47m units.
Today the index rose by 7.98 points (2.21%) to 369.79 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Boeing (BA) +3.84 (6.3%) to $65.2 on volume of 8.78m shares;
- General Electric (GE) +1.08 (3.8%) to $29.25 on volume of 51.69m shares;
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) +3.5 (3.3%) to $108.1 on volume of 2.64m shares;
- Rockwell Collins (COL) +1.44 (2.9%) to $51.17 on volume of 1.22m shares; and
- United Technologies (UTX) +1.78 (2.8%) to $65.54 on volume of 5.54m shares.
Currency Futures
Currency futures cotinued to show a bid for the USDX. Oh man, I am almost wetting my pants, this setup is so good...
| Currency Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 74.1 | 0.48 | 0.65 |
| Euro FX | 1.5439 | -0.0115 | -0.74 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.9493 | -0.0053 | -0.56 |
| Australian Dollar | 0.9103 | -0.0145 | -1.57 |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.9584 | -0.0053 | -0.55 |
| Japanese Yen | 0.9264 | 0.0007 | 0.08 |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.7214 | -0.0036 | -0.5 |
