Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

OzRant: Why Not Now? Why Not YOU?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Ask not for whom the bell tolls... it tolls for the end of this bounce. I plan to short the DAX tonight, and the Nasdaq100 as well (and perhaps even the Financials ETF).

The bounce was predictable (in fact I predicted it about a week too early, which was a pain), and the 'Dumb Money At work' bell has been rung, now that every nuffnuff in the world has bought his membership to the 'Green Shoots' movement.

"Green shoots" is being touted by the people who never saw the disaster coming, who then told everyone it would be contained, and then told everyone they had to give 3 trillion to their chums to fix everything. Green shoots my arse.

Like the 30-year bond short from 127ish, shorting indices now will pay off handsomely by the time the short position is closed... and unlike the short 30-year, there is not a bunch of leveraged-punter-fund dills who are massively short the instrument and needing to cover at any cost.

I have finally got my beloved RantEngine going again - the rebuild is complete, but there are, no doubt, some residual gremlins in the data. Today I spent the entire day cramming data into the newly-impregnablised database. (Not sure if to render something impregnable is to 'impregnablise' it, but if the Krauts can make up words whenever they feel like it, then so can I. If Stahlwahrenhandelsgesellschaft is a word, then so is "impregnablise".

I've still got a lot to do on the subscription side of things - mostly checking things rather than fixing them: I took much greater security precautions with the subscription site than I did with the blogs.

Anyway - let's pretend as if I hadn't just had a huge hiatus, and have a look at today's market action ...

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose strongly, registering a gain of 61.2 points (1.55%), finishing at 4009.3 points. The index hit an intraday high of at , while the low for the day was - set at Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 2.62bn units, 35.7% above its 10-day average of 1.93bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1373 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 648 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 1.88bn units; there were 395 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 455.6m shares.

Of the 500 All Ordinaries components, 290 rose while 123 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 4.9:1, with 1.43bn shares traded in gainers while 291.83m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - managed a solid gain, adding 61.9 points (1.56%), closing out the session at 4017.2 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 4009.30 61.20 (1.6%)
ASX 20 2414.30 36.30 (1.5%)
ASX 50 4028.10 57.70 (1.5%)
ASX 100 3286.80 49.50 (1.5%)
ASX 200 4017.20 61.90 (1.6%)
ASX 300 4012.10 61.40 (1.6%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3630.30 75.20 (2.1%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2160.40 39.40 (1.9%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 36.3 points (1.53%), closing out the session at 2414.3 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 16 index components finished to the upside, and 5 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 247m units; 16 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 214.76m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 32.25m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.71 (6.1%) to $12.35 on volume of 26.2 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.16 (4.82%) to $3.48 on volume of 16.5 million shares;
  • Telstra Corp Ltd (TLS), +$0.14 (4.56%) to $3.21 on volume of 77.2 million shares;
  • RIO Tinto Ltd (RIO), +$2.60 (3.77%) to $71.60 on volume of 3.3 million shares; and
  • Origin Energy Ltd (ORG), +$0.50 (3.34%) to $15.47 on volume of 3 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Wesfarmers Ltd (WES), -$0.51 (2.18%) to $22.86 on volume of 3.9 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway Ltd (SUN), -$0.11 (1.7%) to $6.36 on volume of 6.3 million shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE), -$0.28 (1.44%) to $19.14 on volume of 17.7 million shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WPL), -$0.1 (0.22%) to $44.80 on volume of 1.3 million shares; and
  • CSL Ltd (CSL), -$0.06 (0.2%) to $29.90 on volume of 3.1 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) The small end of the market had a somewhat better day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords performed solidly, in moving up 39.4 points (1.86%), closing out the session at 2160.4 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 142 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 45 closed lower for the session.

The 215 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 563.57m units: volume in the 142 gainers totalling 420.06m shares, with trade totalling 73.95m units in the index's 45 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Minara Resources Ltd (MRE), +$0.14 (17.09%) to $0.93 on volume of 4.9 million shares;
  • Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.01 (15.07%) to $0.08 on volume of 44.8 million shares;
  • MEO Australia (MEO), +$0.02 (13.04%) to $0.13 on volume of 6.7 million shares;
  • Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), +$0.03 (12%) to $0.28 on volume of 1.3 million shares; and
  • Babcock & Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), +$0.04 (11.11%) to $0.40 on volume of 8.5 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Austereo Group Ltd (AEO), -$0.14 (8.05%) to $1.60 on volume of 42.1 thousand shares;
  • Integra Mining (IGR), -$0.03 (6.85%) to $0.34 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
  • Arafura Resources Ltd (ARU), -$0.05 (5.7%) to $0.75 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), -$0.16 (5.39%) to $2.81 on volume of 3.2 million shares; and
  • Australian Agricultural Co (AAC), -$0.09 (5.28%) to $1.53 on volume of 2.3 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4009.361.21.551812.2m
XFLASX 504028.157.71.45758.8m
XJOASX 2004017.261.91.561593m
XKOASX 3004012.161.41.551747m
XMDASX Mid-Cap 503630.375.22.12460.4m
XSOASX Small Ordinaries2160.439.41.86527.9m
XTLASX 202414.336.31.53230.5m
XTOASX 1003286.849.51.531219.2m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances1680152290142648
Declines5254312345395
Advancing Volume214.8m1.13b1.34b1.43b420.1m1.88bn
Declining Volume32.2m218.2m253.5m291.8m74m455.6m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, it was green across the board, as every sector managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Property Trusts (XPJ), which added 48.3 points (6.35%) to 809.3 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 722.45m units; 21 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 722.45m shares, none of the stocks in the index lost ground. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.01 (15.07%) to $0.08 on volume of 44.8 million shares;
  • GPT Group (GPT), +$0.06 (12.5%) to $0.54 on volume of 222.5 million shares;
  • Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), +$0.03 (12%) to $0.28 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), +$0.03 (11.36%) to $0.25 on volume of 87.7 million shares; and
  • Babcock & Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), +$0.04 (11.11%) to $0.40 on volume of 8.5 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Telecommunications (XTJ), which gained 41.5 points (3.88%) to 1111.7 points. This index only contains 3 stocks; they traded a total of 82.9m units today. 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 79.68m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 3.23m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Telstra Corp Ltd (TLS), +$0.14 (4.56%) to $3.21 on volume of 77.2 million shares; and
  • Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (SGT), +$0.03 (1.2%) to $2.53 on volume of 2.5 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which climbed 26.9 points (2.09%) to 1312.9 points. The 24 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 86.36m units; 18 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 52.95m shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 23.98m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Crown (CWN), +$0.43 (6.04%) to $7.55 on volume of 8.7 million shares;
  • Harvey Norman Hldgs Ltd (HVN), +$0.18 (5.77%) to $3.30 on volume of 7.8 million shares;
  • David Jones Ltd (DJS), +$0.21 (5.37%) to $4.12 on volume of 4.3 million shares;
  • Tabcorp Hldgs Ltd (TAH), +$0.27 (3.77%) to $7.44 on volume of 3.5 million shares; and
  • West Australian Newspapers Ltd (WAN), +$0.16 (3.73%) to $4.45 on volume of 378.8 thousand shares.

As mentioned above, there were no declining sectors today - so we can move on down to the Asian market stuff now.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XPJProperty Trusts809.348.36.35722m
XTJTelecommunications1111.741.53.8883m
XDJConsumer Discretionary1312.926.92.0986m
XNJIndustrials3105.763.22.08173m
XXJFinancials ex Property Trusts4195.460.81.47110m
XUJUtilities4165.958.51.4249m
XMJMaterials10826.6111.31.04286m
XEJEnergy15312.498.20.6579m
XHJHealthcare7704.131.70.4118m
XSJConsumer Staples6652.8140.2139m
XIJInformation Technology533.50.20.042m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
GPTGPT Group0.540.0612.5222.5m
GMGGoodman Group0.300.0311.1189m
MOFMacquarie Office Trust0.250.0311.3687.7m
TLSTelstra Corp Ltd3.210.144.5677.2m
DXSDexus Property Group0.760.011.3358.5m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CKTChallenger Kenedix Japan Trust0.410.0719.12302.7k
MREMinara Resources Ltd0.930.1417.094.9m
TZNTerramin Australia.0.950.1416.671.1m
VPGValad Property Group0.080.0115.0744.8m
CRKCarrick Gold0.800.1014.3917.1k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BKWBrickworks Ltd12.70-2.61-17.0588.1k
FPARAFisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings (rights)0.26-0.04-13.33147.3k
TZLTZ1.10-0.10-8.3313.6k
AEOAustereo Group Ltd1.60-0.14-8.0542.1k
PTNPrime Retirement And Aged Care Property Trust0.09-0.01-7.61522.5k